Is the 2025 Bitcoin Top In?

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday ended up being absolutely spot on once more. We filled the fair value gap and then on the 5-minute you got the change in state of delivery and then off you went. I did post this on Twitter yesterday as it was happening, so if you guys want kind of like more live updates, feel free to follow me on Twitter. But otherwise, after this happened, price went up by $8,000. And I do admit that this is not something that I saw coming because I was kind of mentioning, yeah, yesterday might be lower probability conditions. And yet, yeah, I was proven wrong. But either way, this is a big win, and that marks the 82nd win of the 97 last videos that I've made since February. I do make these videos every single weekday, and so, you know, if you're new here, welcome. You're probably in the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong, you know, with about an 80% win rate. And if you would like to learn this system for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below to book a call. But otherwise, let's get into today's video. So today is going to be much more of a straightforward video because yesterday we got a big bullish candle. Today is, well, you know, the daily bias is just going to be to the upside. To the swing traders out there, one of the targets that I kind of set for you guys yesterday within an intraday basis has already been hit. And even outside of an intraday basis, if you were to just draw a fib from this low to this high, you can see that we are quite close to hitting that -0.5 standard deviation expansion out of this range. And so once you hit $119,000, for the swing traders out there, make sure you take your profits. Again, we've already— I already gave you 1, 2, and even 3 swing trade entries. 4 actually, if you count the retracement move over there. So just a quick word for the swing traders out there. If you guys remember, I gave you guys, you know, not 1, I gave you guys 2, I gave you guys 3, and potentially even 4 entries. And so far, it's still going good. If you were a swing trader and you're watching these videos, then congratulations, you're up quite a decent margin at the moment. If you guys remember, I also drew out like if you draw a fib from this low to this high right here, like you get a standard deviation expansion. So far, we're about to reach the negative 0.5 standard deviation expansion. So if price hits $119,000 today, then just remember to take some profit because this is going to be kind of like a measured move, right? The markets always expand a certain degree whenever you get new moves. Just to give you kind of an idea of that, if you draw, just go from this low to this high right here, you can see that the top was formed kind of like at a negative 1.618 expansion. And even throughout, like once you hit the 0.5, for example, there you start chopping around and you maybe start retracing a bit. Once you hit the 1, you also chop around, potentially even retrace a bit. Once you hit this one, yeah, you definitely go down. Yeah, just try to secure your profit because these standard deviation expansion levels are kind of like magic numbers when it comes to trading. Now I don't use this often because I'm not usually swing trading, especially considering the fact that right now, because Bitcoin is at a new all-time high, you don't really have anything outside of standard deviation expansions to give you potential targets. So once you hit that level, just make sure you take some profit. And now let's hop onto the 1-hourly chart so that we can talk about the intraday play. But before I get into that, talking about intraday, the first vlog is going to be launching later in about a couple of hours. If you would like to just follow along with kind of like the more day-to-day or the more fun side of life, then feel free to check out the second link in the description box below. I'm going to put a video link to the premiere. And yeah, I'll be there as well once the video launches. So looking forward to connect with you guys. But anyways, on the 1-hourly chart, again, we've already identified that the daily bias is bullish. So right now, the task on the 1-hourly chart is to identify areas of interest that we can jump into, like potentially waiting for price to retrace into, and then, you know, off we go. So immediately, you can see that there is a bullish order block right there. You have a potential bullish fair value gap right there, and you have a bullish order block that is lower. Now, initially, when I wanted to make this video, like 2, 3 hours ago, the initial kind of like expectation was that, you know, price would actually retrace back into here. Turns out that did not happen. Instead, price just continues going up. So today, the setup is going to be very simple. This is very clearly an accumulation breakout continuation kind of profile, ABC. For those of you who have watched this channel for a while, you have definitely heard of this term before. That is kind of the profile that today is playing out. So the setup for today is super simple. Once price retraces into either one of these blue blocks, then yeah, just literally take an entry, just continue momentum trading. If there is one bit of advice that I can give you is that usually when Bitcoin forms a new all-time high or like when price is moving very aggressively, a lot of beginners, especially people that are not that experienced in crypto, they're very quick to write it off as like, oh, because you have hit an all-time high, you are going to go for a retracement. And there are a lot of reasons why, you know, people could think that way, which is, you know, oh, they believe that Bitcoin's a bit too expensive, and so they think that it needs to go down. Or because of a very big bullish candle, they think that it needs to go down. The truth of the matter is that the market does not need to do anything. That is just what you think. That is just what you want to see from the market. And part of the job of the trader is to kind of like read the signals, read the language, read the words, trying to listen to what the market is trying to You know, tell you and to read what the market is trying to show you and then to trade that accordingly. The truth is, most of the time when you get big bullish candles, those are prime opportunities for you to jump into momentum trades. Because once you get big bullish expansions, guess what? The market is showing indication that price is going really strongly in the bullish direction. And until that changes, you do not start shorting. It's the exact same kind of advice that I gave you guys like 3 or 4 days ago before this big pump even happened. I'm like, guys, nothing about this is indicating bearish yet. I know that the past few times that Bitcoin formed a new all-time high, we actually did go through a retracement, but it doesn't mean that this time around will be the same. If you guys remember a couple days ago, I was talking like, yeah, even though, you know, this is what happened the last few times, it doesn't mean that this time around will be the same. And until the market gives you that signal that, hey, you know, it's going to go down, only at that point do you start shorting. But other than that, the markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent. This is a very famous quote by like an ex, you know, kind of Wall Street hedge fund trader. Don't try to dictate what the market's going to do. The market's going to do what the market's going to do. Just follow along. There is a difference between trading what you want to see happen versus what is actually happening. And if you can stick to the latter, you're going to be much more successful. Now, the specific timings that you're going to want to look for the market to fill in these blue boxes is between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. Right now, it is 5:40 as of the time that I'm recording this, and just understand that either one of these blue blocks are valid. If you just take a look at the 5-minute chart at the moment, these are relatively equal lows. So potentially, you could bounce from here, right? This is valid. Or you could potentially even sweep these relatively equal lows to fill in the higher time frame fair value gap before you start bouncing. Again, both are valid. It is not about predicting which one is going to be quote unquote the bottom or which one's going to be the block that gets hit. It's more about preparing, like marking these levels out, marking these high probability levels out so that you are prepared so that when the market actually dips into those levels, you know exactly what to do. And in this case, well, I hope this gives you a very clear picture. Now, once you get into those blue box, like the thing that you want to see specifically happen is a change in state of delivery. And the easiest way for me to show you is from yesterday's example, because this is exactly the scenario that I called also on Twitter. So once you tap into the level, You want to see order flow change. For example, this is a prior bearish order block, but instead of respecting the bearish order block, price breaks right through it, comes back down to retrace, and then boom, off you go. That break, kind of like that invalidation of a bearish order block in an overall— now if you take a look here, right, this is a bearish order block. Price breaks down, comes back up, fails to break above, and so that means that the bearish order block is being respected. And then price keeps going down, comes back up to this order block right here, right? And then forms a new low. By the way, guys, if you have been seeing the camera kind of like lag and pause every now and then in this video, just understand that today the Wi-Fi has been very choppy. Much unlike the markets today, the Wi-Fi has been very choppy, and so that's probably what's causing the camera to kind of bug out. But anyways, going back to order flow, you can say that this entire move here, you have bearish order flow until this point where you get a change in order flow. This change in order flow is known as a change in state of delivery. And this is all you want to look for when it comes to the 5-minute chart. Once these levels are filled, if you get that, then you are good to target a 2R or potentially even higher to $119,000, as I've already kind of marked out. Now, there is one final thing that we need to talk about, which is going to be invalidation scenarios. As traders, we don't want to just, you know, completely buy into one scenario and like, oh yeah, this is definitely going to happen. You know, it's important that we are able to adapt to changing conditions because, well, the market's always changing. And The invalidation scenario for the idea that I've painted out for you guys is going to be a 1-hourly candle close underneath $117,500. If you get a 1-hourly candle close below this level, you could potentially be looking at a 1-hourly bearish change in state of delivery, which means that instead of the bullish order flow we have gotten so far, you may start going into bearish order flow and price may start dipping below. So that's why the conditions for today is very clear. Once you tap into either one of these levels, you want to see a 5-minute bullish change in state of delivery before you jump into the market. If that doesn't happen, no trade. And of course, feel free to follow me on Twitter because I will be, you know, kind of giving you guys updates as we go. And guys, remember, a vlog is going live in about 3 hours from now. It is going to be a really fun one, and I look forward to seeing you guys in the vlog as it premieres. Right now, it's time to get back to smoking a cigar and enjoying some raw milk. And guys, have a great weekend. Ciao ciao.