is the bitcoin bull market back? (the answer is not what you think)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Are we back in the bull market? Because look at price action, look at how we're starting this week. In fact, just in the last couple of hours, we have finally broken through that $83,000 level that we have been looking at for the past couple of weeks to 3 weeks. So yeah, now back to the question, hey, is the bull market back? Exactly what should we look for in terms of this week when it comes to Bitcoin price action? Do we start getting back in now, or is a retracement, you know, kind of incoming? Besides that, I'm also going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking for in terms of today. So yeah, if you want to figure this out, we're going to get right into the video after a quick little introduction. If you're new here, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube for the past year and a half or so, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more than I'm wrong. But with that out of the way, like yeah, let's kick things off on Bitcoin on the weekly chart. So just to refer back to that $83,000 level, this is the one that I'm referring to. This is the liquidity level that I was expecting price to sweep like literally three weeks ago. Unfortunately, we ended up chopping around for one, two, three, four weeks before. So yeah, the market was really keeping us on the edge there. So like, now that this has been taken, then I was starting to think, hey, what's the next step? Because this could only go 2 ways. And I know I'm going to sound like Sherlock Holmes when I say this, but the market is either going to, you know, kind of hold above this level and kind of give you a successful breakout, and the bull market's going to come back, or this is just going to be a liquidity sweep, trick everyone into thinking that the market, like, hey, like, we're so back, baby, just to, you know, do this. Obviously, there is only 2 directions that this could potentially go. My job here is to break down, or at least give you some odds as to which direction it's going to go. Which one is more likely. So let's break that down first. Like, before we even start off with anything, we cannot draw a conclusion right off the get-go without this week being over, basically. Because the only way to know if a certain level is going to be a liquidity sweep or if this is going to be a confirmed breakout is by using the candle closes. Now, this is going to be a pro tip here. Example, if we manage to get a candle close above this level, it shows that throughout the course of the week there is an enough interested buyers to step into the market at these current prices to keep the price above a certain level. And if we have evidence of that through the use of a candle or a weekly candle close, it shows that there is reason and there are enough people to maintain price at this level. This is a concept known as acceptance. Now, the flip side of the equation, you're going to get a rejection if price makes an initial push above this area, but it eventually fails because there is not enough consistent volume to keep the price above this level. It means that there is a lack of buying interest test at high prices, and that's why price fails. And the only way we're going to be able to find that out is through candle closes. So seeing how this is a weekly liquidity level that we were looking at, and we are looking at this from the perspective of the weekly chart, it means that we cannot draw a conclusion, a definitive conclusion, till we get that weekly candle close. Now obviously, throughout the rest of the week, there are going to be signs on the daily chart that will kind of tell us, okay, should we start jumping short or should we start going long? There are going to be leading indicators, if that's the word that you want to use. But one thing's going to be for sure, I'm going to be following this price action very closely. So if you want to just subscribe and click the bell notification, you'll be the first to know when I jump into a trade, taking advantage of any potential reversals/continuations. Now, the second thing to keep in mind is that until that weekly candle closes, which I know is the boring answer, but it is the only real answer. I would much rather give you the boring answer, but the responsible answer, rather than risk you jumping into the markets prematurely and then end up losing money because of it. So the second thing to pay attention to is fact that in terms of the weekly chart, your overall market structure is pretty bearish, right? And this is again not going to change. Now, market structure has technically already changed because like if we— if this is the higher low, then technically this is already a higher high. I get it. Market structure is just one part of the equation that I use in my system. But the other concept that I use regularly in my analyses, and part of the reason that's allowed me to avoid a lot of false moves and to be on the right side of the majority of the trends over the last couple of years, is order flow. And order flow is primarily rooted in Smart Money Concepts. It's rooted in trying to understand the volume profile. It's just in general, that candle close is basically what we kind of need to confirm upside. But the reason why I mentioned, you know, the overall market structure and stuff like that is, again, jumping into a long right now, while it may feel like you're doing something, just keep in mind you would be— it would essentially just be chasing price, and that's not ideally what you want to do. Also, secondly, you are very much just taking out the range high at the moment. If you take a look at the behavior of price action, once you actually took out this liquidity level over Here, you can start to see that this could potentially just be a weekly range, which means that there is a very decent chance that once you sweep out this level within the next couple of days, you're going to fail to accept above this level, right? To find acceptance above here, you're going to fail. And then over the course of the next few months, you're going to come all the way down to $59,000 and potentially even $49,000. That is another possibility to keep in mind. That's why I don't want you to get too excited just yet because it is a bit too early. And more specifically, we are a few days too early to determine that, okay, Yep, the bull market's absolutely back in. And then we're going to start full porting our entire spot account back into the crypto market. But my read just now that I just gave you is more of a long-term read. It doesn't ultimately affect what we're trying to do here on an intraday basis. Like, we're still going to be trading every single day. When we are trading intraday, we are literally entering and exiting our positions literally within the span of a couple of hours. So let's get into the intraday side of things. We're going to start things off with the daily chart. So far, Super bullish. Last Friday we ended up closing super bullish as well. For the most part, I think even if we have technically a bearish daily bias today, it's going to be damn near impossible. It is going to be near impossible for us to find any sort of bearish signals just because of how much bullish price action has already came into play here. Secondly, another thing you need to understand is daily volatility. If you take a look at the daily volatility so far, right, on average we can expect around $2,000 or rather $2,500 worth of price movement on every single Bitcoin daily candle. Now just to To give you an idea of where I'm pulling this from, this is the average volatility for every single Bitcoin daily candle. Now, even if you just kind of remove the weekends out of the equation, and let's say we give this the benefit of the doubt and add like you know a couple like twenty percent to the overall price action, we still wouldn't be expecting anywhere more than say three thousand dollars right from the top to the bottom of the daily candle. And seeing how today we started at eighty thousand eight hundred and we have already hit eighty five thousand three hundred means that the majority of daily volatility is already in. This doesn't mean that price cannot continue to move. But it does mean that the odds are against your favor if you're expecting price to continue moving in this direction. So rather than chasing price today, I believe it is a way smarter thing to expect price to, you know, form some sort of a consolidation around this level, right? That's the realistic thing that I'm expecting to happen. It's not necessarily like, okay, you're just going to retrace and then you're going to just continue. It's more of a, all right, price just showed a very explosive breakout, and every time you finish some sort of high volatility move, tend to go into a period of low volatility because you try to find acceptance. So this is going Like, we're about to enter a phase today, or rather the rest of today, where I believe it is going to favor range traders a little bit more. And our system, as you may know if you followed me for a while, is that this does not necessarily thrive in ranging conditions. So yeah, essentially it's not to say that we're not going to be looking for trades today. I just wouldn't count on today being the absolute, like, cleanest move because technically we've already missed it. Just by the very nature of me recording this video after prices exploded means that, like, yeah, the high volatility period, sure, it definitely has a chance to continue. But even if it does, right, how are we going to be entering this? Because if we take a look at the momentum entry model that I use, where basically once I get a confirmation that price has formed a new trend or confirmed a new trend, I tend to just use 5-minute order blocks in order to get into price. And if you take a look at 5-minute order blocks, we only have 1 and 2. Arguably, the second one is way too tiny to even be considered as a solid order block. So overall today, we Even though price is moving, we didn't really have a lot of opportunities to take advantage of it. If we take a look at how the London session actually played out, I don't think we would have had a lot of indication that things were going to move in this direction. Now, if you're at this point in the video so far, what I'm about to share is going to increase your win rate or profitability by quite a lot. And what I'm about to share is actually just a very small segment of my overall system. So one of the ways that I prevent myself from getting into a lot of false moves, one of the ways that I maximize my chances of getting into moves prior to large moves like this happening, has to do with the price action of whatever asset that I'm looking at during the London session, but around the Asia highs and Asia lows. So if you take a look here, this is the Asia low, this is the Asia high. Then if I have a day where I am expecting price to be bullish, which by the way, I've made a video like a couple of weeks ago showing you exactly how to get an 80% kind of accuracy rate when it comes to getting the daily direction correct. I will put a link to that video at the end of this one. Probably see it pop up on the screen once we get to the end of this video. But basically, if you can do just one very simple thing where you do not take any single long until the Asia low gets swept out, or if you're bearish for the day, you do not take a single short until the Asia high gets swept out, this will naturally increase your win rate by a lot. And also, it'll almost ensure that you're getting in on basically the high or low of the day, depending on whatever your daily bias is. Very simple trick. But prior to this, just to give you an idea, we did not breach either the Asia high or the Asia low. Which, if there's one observation that I can tell you right away, is that if you're taking trades during the London session without sweeping the Asia high or low, you're basically getting into the middle of nowhere. And one of the favorite sayings of the head coach at AOC is, don't diddle in the middle. And that's very true. So many people lose money because you diddle in the middle when you do not have any indication. Okay, is price bearish? You could, like, for example here, right? The price makes a bearish CSD. You could make an argument that you go short. Right. But at the same time, you were making higher highs and higher lows prior to that. So you could also make the argument that you're going long, but that completely misses the point. Like, you're not supposed to study the price action in the middle. It's very little. Like, you're basically just flipping a coin, right? 50/50. Sometimes you're going to get it right, sometimes you're going to get it wrong. And even when you get it right, where are you going to set your target? There? There? Somewhere random? Where are you going to set your stop loss? Like, you start to see the problems with trading in the middle. Whereas if you just wait for liquidity sweeps to happen at around key levels and then take advantage of the reversal that will come afterwards, and ideally if you can align this with your daily bias. Like, that's a super simple strategy to just start making money. And like, when I say simple, it probably doesn't get any easier than that. Maybe MACD RSI could be simpler, but I'm sure a lot of us here have tried that before and didn't quite work out. Which, by the way, I would even say, like, even though I try to share as much as possible, reality is like the stuff that I'm putting out on YouTube probably only covers about 20-25% of what you'll actually get inside the paid programs. Like, not only are you going to be coached directly by me and the team where we're going to work with you one-on-one so that we make sure you truly understand the system and you can apply this profitably in the live markets and trade this confidently, but you're going to get access to literally the entire library, not just the 25% that I'm sharing on YouTube. So what this basically means is that if you've been watching my videos for a while now and you understand and you can see for yourself, and if you've tried this system out for yourself and you know that it works, but you'd like to get the full recipe so that this works even better for you, click the first link in the description box below and book a call. There's one interesting statistic I can share with you is that 55% of the students who end up working with us in this program do end up getting funded. For at least $100,000, or they go on to make a full-time living out of trading. And this is a metric that no other program can claim because they simply do not care, and neither are they measuring this either. We care about student success, and we know that this is a program, or rather, this is a curriculum that works. So if you've been trading for a while now and you're still not really getting results out of trading, or worse yet, you're losing money, maybe some coaching is what you were missing this whole time. Now that that's out of the way, let's get into the overall kind of trade idea for today. And to be honest, it's literally just going to be more of a retracement and a continuation type trade. Now, if I could break it down, Like, honestly, we can't even really use the original kind of area of consolidation where we started this pump from because like price has already moved this far away in such a short period of time. So chances are we're going to have to use the 5-minute chart and we're going to be drawing most likely some sort of a fib from low to high, right? Let's say the start of the move was in Asia session and that's the Asia low that we use. And again, even there, even then, I would be kind of like, you know, kind of just grasping at straws here. And I don't really want to be taking trades based on grasping at straws or just kind of making random predictions. Ideally, what I would like to see, and this is honestly what I will look for today, actually 2 things that I will look for today. One is just genuinely a no trade. Like, interesting statistic that I can share with you as well is that even though I don't really lose a lot of trades, especially on Bitcoin, especially the ones that I'm publicly calling, I can tell you that based on like me publicly tracking all of my trades is that I lose basically like 50% or probably even more of my trades on Mondays and Mondays alone. And what oftentimes happens on Mondays is that the price action tends to align really well, right? The price action looks amazing. But when you actually go ahead and try to get into a trade during the New York session, you end up just getting like liquidity swept, or like you just get stopped out for some reason, or you jump into the trade and it just goes completely the other direction as compared to what is happening in London. And it's just a lot more hit or miss compared to Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And it's perfectly normal, right? Because Monday is kind of the first day of the week where it's just kind of setting the tone for the week, if that makes sense. So yeah, I'm going to stand by my hill. Because I have said this before and I'll say it again, but Monday is basically just an extended weekend. Like you have Saturday, Sunday, and then you have Monday, right? Just take Mondays off. It's rarely the case where you'll make it work on Bitcoin. But sometimes we do get some rare Mondays where we have news on Monday. But today is not one of those Mondays. In fact, throughout the rest of this week, we don't even have news, like period. So yeah, that makes this interesting. But the second thing that I would do if I was actively trying to look for a trade, and now don't get me wrong though, just because I say that Monday tends to be a no-trade day doesn't mean that I won't be looking, right? I'll still look for trades. It's just, it's rarely that I will see enough confirmations where it makes it worthwhile taking. But in the event that you are, you know, just looking to force a trade for today, maybe you think that price is going to continue going towards the upside. Fair enough. There again, there is a chance. It's not a very high chance, but there is a chance. In that case, the prescription that I would give you is more of a momentum trading strategy. Basically, what I would love to see prior to the start of the New York session is some sort of consolidation, right? It doesn't have to be huge, but just some sort of consolidation. Where it leaves behind some sort of an order block that is larger than just like a single candle order block that actually allows me to, for example, when price breaks above those levels, I can kind of get into a retracement and continuation. If I see one of these entries, I'll definitely be posting it on X. But again, like highly unlikely that these are going to play out in the first place because it's Monday and for all of the reasons that I've already, you know, kind of explained. So if possible, skip today because what's going to end up happening is that chances are today you're going to close super bullish. Now what's going to happen once you close super bullish is that tomorrow you're going to leave behind some 1-hour kind of key levels, right? For example, let's go back to the 1-hourly chart, right? And okay, let's say we close today kind of consolidation. Maybe you end up retracing a little bit. Guess what's going to happen tomorrow? You're going to start the Asia range off at some point here, right? Let's say this is the Asia range. And because you have a bullish close, right, when you get into the London session, you're going to sweep below. You're going to look for a sweep below the Asia range. You can look for that sweep to also fill in this 1-hourly key level. And then that is potentially going to be the low of the day that you can get into so that you can take advantage of a buy low to sell high opportunity. Now, by the way, if that sounds gibberish to you, just one of the little things that I break down within the full program. But either way, just understand that we don't necessarily have to trade every day. Sometimes the first day is just a setup for a much better trade on the second day. Sometimes these setups can take 3 days, sometimes it takes longer, sometimes it's shorter, where every single day you're going to have a super solid trading opportunity. Unfortunately, I just don't really see it for today. So that's my take. If I do get into any trades today, I'll definitely let you guys know. But otherwise, yeah, just looking for a retracement today and just a slight continuation. We're definitely not going to be aiming for something super far away. Even if we do get into a trade, it's just going to be 2 I don't think we should realistically expect too much more in terms of daily volatility here. Again, not saying that there is no chance that price cannot go higher. It's just what's the probability, right? Success from trading comes from taking the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome over the long term. Obviously, we want to take the high probability scenario each and every single time. And if we happen to jump into a trade where that probability is against us, guess what? Maybe we probably shouldn't be taking it. So yeah, I'll leave you guys with that and I'll see you guys later on X as well as tomorrow. Ciao ciao.