Is The Bull Run Over?

Right, good morning everyone. We absolutely nailed the call from yesterday where we expected price to come back into the fair value gap and then to dump from that point onwards. In the event that we sweep these relative equal highs at around the hours between 8 to 10:00 a.m., we're going to be looking for price to give a short-term time frame, right, meaning the 5-minute chart, to start breaking lower. And then we're going to take that trade down to 119,600 or potentially lower based on the targets that I've set before. I think it was 118,400. So that's going to be the intraday target for today. Little did we know that that we would get China tariff news and that would dump the market by this much. Now, currently what happened overnight is the biggest liquidation event in all of crypto history, and $9.4 billion of longs getting liquidated in this one move right here. And so the question to answer in this video is, is the bull run over? Do we still have room to go up? Is this just one of those liquidation events that is meant to shake out the weak hands, shake out the people that did not take profit, shake out the people that are overleveraged so that we can continue to go higher from this point onwards? Because that's been the pattern that has repeated throughout past bull runs, but we haven't quite seen that during this bull run. In this video, I'm going to give you the medium-term to potentially long-term outlook on Bitcoin and the overall crypto markets. Do we still have an alt season, or yeah, again, is everything over? So anyways, let's get into it. Now, to kick things off, I know that this has been a much bigger move than, you know, anybody has anticipated. Now granted, I called the top yesterday, And I wasn't quite expecting price to go this far. But if there's one thing for certain, it's that in my opinion, everyone on Twitter is completely overreacting right now. If you just go on X right now, you will see that on every single timeline, everything that anybody is posting about right now is, oh man, this is over. I just lost everything. You know, it's time to sell everything and walk out. And people calling like, yeah, I called the top, man. I called the top. So one thing's for sure is that If you take a look at price action, actually, if you look, one thing's for sure, if you just take a step back from the emotions real quick, take a step back from, you know, whatever the news event was, whether you blame Trump or not, whatever, price action's decent. Like nothing's changed on the higher timeframe. And the reason why I say that is that, well, first of all, let's start off on the daily chart. We did not get a daily candle close underneath this level right here, which is very important because if you had closed below $109,000, This would be what is known as a change in state of delivery, which means that price will have entered into a state of bearish order flow. Now, I know that sounds like a mouthful, but just understand that bullish order flow means that bullish PDAs and bullish order blocks are being respected, and usually you anticipate the market to form higher highs and higher lows in this case. Now, granted, now one thing to note is that order flow is not market structure, although they are kind of interlinked, but they are still different. And so without this daily bullish candle close, you can see that even though we went quite low, like we went all the way down to $104,000, even close to $100,000. The fact that we did not close below means 2 things. One is that there is sufficient market interest in, you know, maintaining price above these levels, meaning there are interested buyers down at these low prices here. Otherwise, price wouldn't have rebounded the way that it did. Now, the second thing is that without that candle close, it means that everyone that has been going long since like 3, 4 months ago, like late June, potentially even early June, or just potentially even early May, like they would have been in profit during this entire time with only just a few days where price came back to the entry. In the event that those people did not take profit, their leveraged positions would just continue to pile up and adding to the open interest. And right now, all of them, well, or at least a good portion of them have been swept out. You know, understanding the liquidation numbers. And so essentially what I'm trying to say here is that a lot of the liquidity has been swept out, right? A lot of the dumb money that did not take profit, they've been swept out. All right, keep this in mind as we move on to the next point. Now the other party at play here are the people that are just completely overleveraged, people that are on really high leverage. They don't know what they're doing, they don't have a strategy, that may be new to the markets. Guess what? They're also wiped out. Leads me to the final point. This is, in my opinion, A little shakeout. In past bull markets, if you take a look at 2017 and if you take a look at 2021, and where you will notice a very clear trend here in those past events, you know, every 2 to 3 months we get some sort of a liquidation event, right? And back then everyone was treating it like just a normal day in a bull run because this is what's needed, right? In order for the markets to go higher, you need to wipe out the weak hands. And so far during this bull run, we haven't really quite got that, right? Most of the dumps on Bitcoin have been like really slow, choppy retracements where you can tell, like, it's not one of those big liquidation events. It's not one of those events where everyone loses at the same time. It's one of those like, oh yeah, you know, I can, I can reasonably see a retracement incoming right now. And that's been the trend during this bull run, right? From here to here, it took like what, mid of March to mid of September to complete this retracement. And then over here, once you form this new high, it's the start of like late January and it lasted all the way till like mid-April. This time you have just completed going from $122,000, dropping almost $20,000 in the course of a few hours. This time around, you have went from $122,000 down to $102,000, like a drop of $20,000 in a matter of a few hours. Of course, we haven't seen this much in this cycle, but this is a normal part of the bull run. And I'm not trying to be like a mega bull here, I'm not trying to, you know, be unreasonably optimistic here, but the truth is market structure has not changed, order flow has not changed. If anything, we have just got a liquidity sweep followed by a liquidation event that was triggered by a news event. Like, no, it's not exactly news, but it was just a tweet like, hey, China is— we're going to impose 100% tariffs on China. Which, you know, nobody could have predicted that this would have dropped at this time, and nobody would have predicted that this piece of information would have led to the market dropping by $80,000 and hundreds of billions of dollars wiped out across the market on Bitcoin, on altcoins, and whatever. But the point I'm getting at here is that this is Not a typical— like, this is not a sign that, hey, bull run's over. Like, you can speculate as much as you want. There are people that have speculated all throughout this cycle. Oh yeah, this would have been the top. Oh yeah, this is the top. Oh yeah, this is the top. Oh, this is the top. Like, the truth is nobody knows. And I have a pretty good track record publicly on YouTube. Like, I've been making videos since February, making a video daily calling a trade on an intraday perspective, and I'm right about 80% of the time. Like, even I don't claim to know where the top is. Like if you ask me right now, like I wouldn't know. Like again, we trade what the market tells us. And that's a big difference I think, which is, you know, there is what you think, you know, should happen in the markets. Let's say, oh yeah, you know, Bitcoin's definitely gonna top here. And then there's what the market is actually happening. And then there is what the market is actually doing. And if your best interests in, you know, this market is to make money, ideally you want to be trading what the market is doing rather than what you think should happen. And in this case, heck, forget the daily chart. Let's go into the weekly. Does this look bearish to you? I would say so, right? You have high highs, high lows. You have bullish order flow. You have bullish order flow being respected. If anything, right now you've again swept out some key liquidity points before, who knows, by the end of tomorrow, you know, Sunday, you may as well, you may very well see price has already recovered a decent amount. Do I think that's gonna happen? I don't think so. But at the same time, I don't know, right? It's not my job as a trader to predict the next move that happens. What's important is simply preparing, you know, mapping out a couple of scenarios that are likely And it's simply reading and reacting from that point onwards. But one thing's for sure, guys, I just wanted to give you a little bit of assurance, give you kind of my 2 cents on what I think the markets are at at the moment. Of course, I don't claim to know everything. Like, I may have had a pretty good track record, but again, I could be wrong. Like, my next few trades could be wrong, my next few calls could be wrong. It's happened before. But the key thing here is I'm just trying to give you the facts, right? The fact that, you know, this is a liquidation event that we haven't seen before. We're still very much in bullish market structure. We're still very much in a bull run. So again, Could just be a liquidation event where, you know, you wipe out some, you know, profits and you just get some liquidations, shake some people out of the market, reset the open interest, reset the funding rates, and off you go again. And there's one thing that I kind of see as a silver lining is the take— is the stance of the Federal Reserve at the moment. They are very much looking to cut the interest rates throughout this month, throughout next month, or at least 2 times, right? From now until the end of the year. And there's one thing you need to understand about how, you know, bull markets for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and whatnot, they thrive in conditions where, you know, liquidity is abundant. And for liquidity to be abundant, you need interest rates to be low. This is the first time in 2 to 3 years where the Fed has actively been cutting rates. If anything, the macro conditions are only going to get better from here. Again, unless market structure and order flow shifts, which in this case would be a solid And close underneath $108,000. All that's happening right now is just people panicking, just people overreacting to what's happening in the markets. And ideally, I'm not one of those people. But anyways, feel free to follow me on Twitter @TheArtOfCrypto if there are any updates to this situation or if there are any trades that I am taking in these, you know, troubling times. I will be posting them onto Twitter. But otherwise, I'm gonna go enjoy my weekend and ciao ciao, guys.