most people will lose money today on bitcoin (do this instead)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Clarence is currently on a plane, so he's unable to edit this video, so I'm gonna have to do this in one take. So yeah, no edits today, just going to be a raw kind of breakdown as to the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin for today. I'm also going to break down the higher time frame, so basically what to expect from Bitcoin from the weekly chart, and we're going to get into a bit of news. And yeah, all of— and yeah, like before we get into it, if you're new here, um, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all these trade calls that I make right here on YouTube and I document them on X, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. Now last week we ended the week with a couple of wins and a couple of losses, but hopefully this week we're going to do a lot better than last week. Also, real quick to anyone that missed this video from the weekend, one of the things that I've been able to do really well over the last year and a half or so of posting these daily market updates and just predicting what the price is going to do next is that I tend to have Almost like a— this is not my words, it's the words of my followers, or like to the people that, like, you guys know who you are. I'm not— I'm going to try to look for the comments, but like, I have an ability to predict the daily direction of, you know, most days as though I have a crystal ball. Now again, not my words. If Clarence was here, he would be able to put it on the screen. But one of the big reasons I'm able to do that is because I have a very simple technique to determining what is the daily bias. This basically points out to you that, hey, today is most likely going to be a day where you look for longs, and, you know, on another day you're very likely supposed to be looking for shorts. Now, I made a video breaking that down in a way where you'll be able to understand it and also get closer to having an 80% accuracy rate when it comes to predicting the daily bias. With that out of the way though, let's finally get into the video, like actually the video, and we're going to start things off on the weekly chart, because it's always important to start off from the higher timeframe and then go to the lower timeframes. It's so many— so often I see people start from the lower timeframes and immediately just jump on the first signal that shows up there, but then they end up, you know, trading counter-trend or just completely lose track of the big picture. And so let's understand the big picture first, and then we get into the lower timeframes. Now, just to mention one thing, uh, well, or at least the first thing that I can see is that the weekly target from Last week has not yet changed, even though the target from last week did not get hit. However, last week we ended up closing bearish. So basically what this means is that I am still expecting price to reach towards $83,000, right? This is going to be the draw liquidity until proven otherwise. Now the problem with this is that you know oftentimes just because you have a target doesn't mean that price is just going to run straight to that target, and so. And the reason why I mentioned that is because, well, if you take a look at Bitcoin right now, this last weekly candle close is bearish. And when the last weekly candle close is bearish, we tend to lean towards price printing bearish for this week. Now, whether or not that's going to come true or not, we don't yet know. After all, the trading system that I use on this channel is an intraday trading system, which basically means that I'm usually entering and exiting the trades that I do take within the span of like a couple of hours, maybe 3. So what we're still going to do on an intraday basis has, you know, this definitely has merit and it has weight, but not as much as you would anticipate. But for now, the reason why we're still looking at this is to just get an idea, right? For example, because we have a bearish weekly bias, well, now let's head down to, you know, the price action and see, all right, is there any reasonable targets that price could potentially reach for? And we can see that The answer is not really, because this is just a huge fair value gap, and this is a bullish fair value gap, which means that as price returns into the bullish fair value gap, as we did last week, the correcting— or rather, the thing that happens more often than not is that price actually uses it as support and heads towards some sort of external range liquidity. So this is your external range liquidity. Your fair value gap is your internal range liquidity. Market always moves from internal to external. So with that in mind, Just because the weekly bias is printing bearish doesn't mean that I'm going to think that price is going to be overall bearish for this week. But what it does tell me is that in the event that Monday or Tuesday ends up being bearish and it comes down for this liquidity target here, which I'm going to show you on the daily chart— this is a previous swing low right here that has not yet been taken. And granted, and seeing how we have formed this swing low here from last week without sweeping out this one means that both of these lows are now considered relatively equal And if you know anything about liquidity concepts, is that relative to equal lows tends to be a magnet for price, which means like price tends to be attracted to this. Maybe we sweep it out and then we go for the true expansion towards the upside, which is this higher timeframe liquidity level that I've already mentioned just now. So the playbook for this week is that if potentially Monday, Tuesday, potentially Wednesday heads towards the downside, Thursday, Friday, you know what, the thing that's going to give me a lot more certainty as to which playbook, or rather which weekly profile is likely to play out, is gonna— like, I'm just gonna have to take a look at news. And so far, uh, well, this is not promising because the only bit of news that we have for this week in terms of USD is on September 16th, so Wednesday basically. And this is FOMC basically, and federal funds. So this is one of the largest news events that you could possibly have, which tells me one thing, uh, chances are More likely than not, the biggest day of the week, right? The most volatile day of the week is likely going to come on Wednesday, and it's going to chances are it's going to come either an hour before news to the hour after news. So basically 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. on Wednesday, which means that there is a high likelihood that Monday and Tuesday could just be setup days. What do I mean by this? Well, let's say that Monday and Tuesday gives you an aggressive move towards the upside, and you know maybe we confirm a bullish CSD or whatever. Like if there is super like just very clear signs that price is bullish Wednesday. May be the day that takes us over the top up to $83,000, and then we reverse, uh, instantly Thursday, Friday, right? This is an example of a weekly profile, and I know that seems very outlandish or maybe too impossible to be true, and yet that is exactly what caused me to get stopped out of my trade last Friday where I was taking a trade here, uh, before price actually hit the target, which the target was perfect by the way. The price ended up stopping me out before hitting the target, and then right after hitting the target We went for the bullish target that I had. Like, if you if you watched Friday's video, you would have known that okay, depending on what happens around that news window, I'm going to be leaning towards short, but I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up going long either. And if we do go up long, these two lines here would be the target. And on the same day, both the bearish target and the bullish target—well, the ultimate bullish target—were both hit. So before you think that the weekly profile that I mapped out to you is impossible, like yeah, the markets move, and as long as there is a reason for the markets to move. it will move. And oftentimes the biggest reason that you could possibly have is red folder high-impact news events for the USD. So seeing how— like, the other way that this could play out, by the way, is that Monday, Tuesday, again, they tend— when you only have one piece of news for the week and that piece of news being interest rates, plus it's coming on a Wednesday, there is a very high likelihood that Monday and Tuesday ends up being just setup days, which means that if Monday and Tuesday actually heads towards the downside and sweeps out this liquidity, I'm going to have a lot more certainty that Wednesday, Thursday, Friday is going to look something like this. But again, at the end of the day, this is just a prediction. So let's get into some more. Again, this will change as we proceed throughout the week. After all, I am not a magician. I cannot see the future. I can make reasonable assumptions as to what could potentially happen. But at the end of the day, and I always say this in my videos, which is basically there are 2 things that need to be present before you ever take a trade. First is an idea, right? What's your idea about the markets? What's your opinion? So My idea is that this could be possible, but most people just kind of do step one and just leave it at that, right? And just jump straight into a trade. But they forget there is a second step here, which is once you have your idea, you need to see the market give you some signs like, hey, Xuan, whatever your idea is, I agree. So for example, if I think my idea is Monday, Tuesday has to be the downside and goes for the liquidity sweep, well, guess what? That's the condition that needs to be present before that idea gets invalidated and I jump into a trade, right? So things will change as we move on. After all, the goal of these videos that I make on a daily basis is to give you a couple of high probability scenarios to take advantage of. And when I tell you that these are high probability scenarios, win rate speaks for itself. But also secondly, I give you conditions, exact conditions that need to be met before you jump into a trade. And even when it comes to the trade, I literally tell you, hey, this is step 1, 2, 3 of what you do once these conditions are met. And so now we come into the daily timeframe and so far, Um, I'm going to be very upfront with you, like, the market conditions today and the way the price has been setting up so far is not a type of setup, it's not a type of pattern that gives me confidence in trading today. Like, straight up, it just doesn't give me confidence to even take a trade today. Here's what I mean. So first of all, uh, we know that this liquidity point right here has been swept on this high. Now, once this liquidity point has been swept, we went for an aggressive move towards the downside, And clearly, clearly you're reaching for some sort of sell-side liquidity. Now, last week I thought that sell-side liquidity was going to be here. Unfortunately, we stopped short, which means that right now you have relatively equal lows, which means that very likely this is going to be a trap. Basically, the market's going to give you some signs today, or maybe today or tomorrow, and like it's going to trick people into thinking like, hey, yeah, the market's going to go up, right? But what a lot of people are going to fail to realize is that the relatively equal lows here. And until the market really does give like a super certain sign, and that sign is going to come with a change of state of delivery potentially here, or just a more stronger kind of like maybe 2 days, 2 straight days of pump. Until that happens, I'm still going to be looking at this liquidity point right here as a potential where price is going to come here, sweep it out before any sort of major upside move. Now, I don't know if that will happen yet, but let's go into the lower time frames to see if that may be proven true. Now, This is where it gets a little bit complicated, and what I mentioned earlier, like, yeah, just because the daily timeframe, we have reason to believe that this could go towards the upside, I just don't really see it. At least if I do get into a trade today, it's not going to be one towards the upside. So first of all, we have a bullish CSD right here. So immediately, anyone that trades my system or anyone that has experience with my system, you're going to be looking at a long, and that's valid. And this is what's going to make it complicated. In terms of the weekly profile plus the daily bias, which is currently bearish, it's— we're supposed to see signals towards the downside. And yet when we come into the 1-hourly chart, we see a bullish CSD and an overall bullish order flow, which means right now there are conflicting signals. The lower timeframe is pointing bullish, the higher timeframe we have reason to believe that it's pointing bearish. So what do you do in this situation? Now, the easiest way that I will explain this to you is that I want you to think back to some of the absolute bangers that you've had, right? The best trades that you've ever had. Were they obvious, or were they kind of like this, where you kind of have a reason to believe it's going to go down and you kind of have a reason to believe that it's going to go up? I'm willing to bet chances are they were pretty obvious. You open up the chart and immediately it's like, oh yeah, everything's pointing bearish, all right, let's just go short. Or like, hey, you open up the chart, whoa, super bullish, and there's a clear target over there, let me just go long. So those are examples of A+ trades, right? You clearly know what these look like. They're very straightforward and very simple. Like, and oftentimes when you do get into the trade, they don't really leave you with a lot of room for doubt. You get into a trade, once you get into, you know, a key market timing such as the New York Kill Zone or the London Kill Zone, bang, right? It just moves straight to your target. Now those are the trades that we already know. They're the moneymakers, right? They're the A+ setups. So that's not the problem. The problem is that we still oftentimes get into a lot of trades where it's kind of like this, right? There's conflicting signals. We know clearly this is not an example of an A+ setup. We take it anyways. That's where a lot of the struggle comes from. We know what the good trades look like. It's just that in between waiting for the good trades, we cannot avoid taking all of the subpar trash that comes in between. So if I were to be just trading for myself and not making these YouTube videos and trying to, you know, give an answer that is potentially going to be more satisfactory to the masses. What I would personally do is to just avoid today because every time I get conflicting signals, right, where I see a reason to be bullish and I see a reason to be bearish both at the same time, that is a warning sign. It tells me that this trade or like this day is subpar, at least compared to the straightforward days. And I know that my Ability, or rather the amount of money that I make as a trader, is directly proportional to the quality of the trades that I do take. And also, something that correlates to the quality of your trades is the quality of the decisions that you do make, right? Do you choose to trade on the subpar days, or do you only wait for the quality days? As an example. So in this case, the honestly very boring answer would just be to not trade today. But hey, I know that you guys are. Absolute dopamine junkies, and well, not all of you, but I know some of you are. And if you are looking for a trade, I'm still going to give you my two cents as to how I would navigate this, assuming I was trading for myself. So a couple of things: the way that you're going to navigate today has a lot to do with timing. The reason why I mentioned this is that okay, currently we're starting out the London session, and as we start out the London session, we can see that we have just swept the Asia high. As you can see right here, that's the Asia high. We just swept it out on London, and technically the daily bias today is bearish. Now this sets you up for a potential accumulation manipulation, right, where London manipulates and then New York distributes towards the downside. And you're already seeing this play out, right, where you sweep the Asia high and you get a very convincing change of state of delivery right here, which means technically right now this is already valid to get in. Stop above the London highs because that's a manipulation, right? You do a liquidity sweep similar to what I explained just now with the daily, or like that daily liquidity level. The reason why I do not ideally want to get into like some mega longs for this week before that level is swept is because you end up having something like this where you literally get stopped out and then price moves towards the downside. Obviously, this is a short example. That is a long example, but you get the idea. Today, AMD, that is the setup that I will look at for today. So I will potentially try this out actually, now that I'm mentioning this. But if you're watching this video closer to the New York session, you have the advantage of seeing how London plays out. So there is a level right here that I want you to keep in mind. And let me just remove this blue box so that we don't get confused. So this blue box right here is a bullish order block on the 1-hourly timeframe. Now, If you're watching this sometime during New York, you have the advantage of seeing, okay, did London just continue to break towards the downside, or did London actually just kind of pretended to fall, found support here, and then created some higher highs or higher lows, or just some changes in order flow towards the upside? Now, if you do see scenario 1 right here, it means that you have an— well, you very likely have an AMD setup where you can just kind of continue going short. In the event that you see price actually doing this, well, guess what? You're going to be trading towards the upside, at least within the New York session. Now, The timing, the exact timing that you're going to want to approach this is going to be between 7 AM to 10 AM New York because that is the New York kill zone. Now, for those of you who don't know what that means, let me explain this way. You have 2 axes on your chart, right? A lot of the times people just look at price action, which is the y-axis, and they just call it a day. But they fail to realize that there is an entire x-axis, which is time. And depending on what time certain things happen in the markets, it greatly affects the probability of that thing playing out or not. So If you compare your understanding of price action and timing, you can basically narrow down your trading to like a couple of short hours a day. But those couple of hours are going to be like the absolute highest probability hours that you can get in on. And by the way, shameless plug— well, not really shameless, but if you'd like my help to, you know, just learn this whole system for yourself, click the first link in the description box below. I've had close to 65 students come in through these doors, Where it's a very one-on-one intensive kind of thing, so it's not very scalable. So we don't take on a lot of students, but the ones that do, we have close to a 50% success rate in getting those students funded for at least $100,000. Like, out of 65 students, I think we've got like 32 that are currently actively funded, and there are a good number of which who are already just making a full-time living out of trading. So if you have been putting in effort, into trading and you're not really seeing much results back, chances are you just need someone to actually— hey, this is exactly what you're screwing up on, and this is what you need to do instead. And it also helps if you can just learn or kind of copy-paste a system that's already proven. Case in point, I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls right here, and I'd say the win rate also speaks for itself. But with that out of the way though, I would like to But yeah, let's get back into the chart and just yeah. When you get into the New York session, depending on how price plays out, that is going to be your advantage, especially if you're coming on during the New York session. Now, if you would like some updates, I will definitely be posting them on Twitter where all of my trade calls. If I do get into any trades, I'm going to post it here. Like it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever, so feel free to check it out. But at this point, I'm actually not sure how I can link this video like. Over here, but literally just—I'll try my best—but just click on my channel or whatever and you'll be able to find it. Highly, highly encourage you guys watch this video if you've—if you don't know how to yet determine the daily bias. And there's another one that I highly recommend if you have mentioned or if you've seen me talk about CISDs and order blocks and liquidity and you don't really know what that is. Made a 35-minute video just breaking all three of these concepts down in a very simple beginner-friendly way. So I highly encourage you to check that video out as well. But there's a Bitcoin. Nothing I really miss much. If I had to give you like my two cents, I would try to avoid today. But if I were to get into a trade, just remember that today is also Monday and it's a no news Monday, which means you're like the probability like just starting off just on the day itself. Your probability is already going to be a lot lower. So if I could avoid today, I would avoid it because so often we see a Monday that has no news and just because price action kind of lines up, you're kind of seeing this happen right now in the London session. Just because you have these, you know, great solid signals on price action, it doesn't mean that they're going to play out because it's a non-news Monday. If you know anything about why the markets like to move, they oftentimes need some sort of a reason to move. And again, red folder, high-impact news tends to be that big reason. Without that, you're going to get some very choppy and some very low probability kind of days. On the bright side though, if you're trading forex, You have Canadian, you have GBP, you have New Zealand, and you have Japanese yen, which by the way, Japanese yen has been absolutely printing for me and a lot of my students inside the group or like inside the program as well, just because of how much news and how much volatility there is currently surrounding the Japanese yen. So if you're on forex, I would encourage you not to sleep on this. If you're not on forex, what are you doing, man? Start getting into forex. Like so many people think that Forex is intimidating, and yeah, of course, like it has a different kind of wrapper. It has a different packaging on it. But the truth is, oftentimes people even find forex to be simpler than crypto. And truth, the truth is, it kind of is. Check it out. You you might be feeling confused for like a solid thirty minutes, but trust me, it's not going to be more than that, right? It's very easy to figure out. If you do get short, these couple of levels are going to be the targets, like Asia low right here. At 76,400, 76,160, 75,600. God forbid if we get such a volatile Monday. And if you go long, then the targets should also be pretty straightforward. You've got this previous high left from last week. But honestly, seeing how today is Monday and it's a non-news Monday, I would just take profit at 2R regardless of if I go short or if I go long. I'll just kind of like, if you take a look at the trade that I marked out here, that is what, 2.9R. So whatever my stop loss, whatever my entry is, I would just Set my TP in a way where it's just too hard. Again, it's Monday. Play it safe. Don't trade if possible. But if you want to get into a trade, hopefully this video gives you the playbook. But yeah, otherwise Clarence will be back tomorrow, so you guys don't have to deal with like zero editing. If you enjoyed this style of video though, let me do do let me know. All this done this one take. But yeah, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.