New Bitcoin All-Time High... But Will It Last?

Guys, how spot on have we been? Since the start of this week, I was talking about how we are going to get an explosive move on Wednesday and that very likely we will see a new Bitcoin all-time high on Wednesday. I even predicted it to the exact timing. The all-time high yesterday happened just 2 hours after FOMC. Essentially, once you close above this, this will validate this as a potential bullish order block, which is where we will start, you know, looking to position ourselves in the entry. And yeah, this is the power of, you know, the system that we are trading on This channel. And guys, the proof is in the pudding because since February, I've made 96 videos and 81 out of 96 of them have been the correct call. That includes yesterday. And if you guys would like to learn this system for yourself, we are now opening the next intake of bootcamp where you work one-on-one with me. Yes, me and you, to get you to a stage where you can be full-time trading within the next 60 to 90 days. If that sounds relevant to you, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into today's video. So kicking things off, we have already achieved that new all-time high. And so the move for today is going to be a little bit more sketchy in the sense that I just want to preface this by saying that the markets tend to move from periods of high volatility to low volatility and vice versa. We have just gotten a very high volatility move that quite literally formed a new all-time high, which also means that today we may just get a day where, you know, nothing much is happening. And you are seeing this right now throughout the Asia session as well as the London session. Ever since we have hit the new all-time high, for like 12 hours we've just literally been chopping around, and this is very normal. So I guess the only kind of like saving grace for a move to potentially happen today is the fact that at 8:30 AM we're going to get USD news, and the rest of the week we're not going to get much news. So if there is a trade today, then it is probably maybe likely going to be the final good trading day of the week. And so let's try to take advantage of this. Taking a look on the daily chart, of course yesterday's candle closed bullish, which means we are having a daily bullish bias, which means that we're looking for longs today. And for the swing traders out there, congratulations if you have taken the trade that I've kind of been prefacing over the last like 2 to 3 weeks. First of all, I did say that this was very likely to be the bottom and that you are otherwise— like you would be bullish until, you know, proven otherwise. Once we got this break and base happening, I did say that this order block here would be perfect to enter. And you had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 days to enter into this order block before price actually pumped. And then again, once more, like, you had this new order block that formed right here, and you would have had another 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days to get into this trade before price pumped out of, you know, the current zone. And so if you did take this trade, congratulations! Feel free to let me know in the comments section down below if you have been making money over the last, like, couple of weeks from watching these videos. It truly means a lot to me when I read comments from you guys. And by the way, I do read every single comment, and Really means a lot to me when, you know, I am able to make some sort of impact in your lives with these videos that I'm making. You know, keeps me going. So to go back to what I was saying before, overall, your daily bias— sorry, even your higher timeframe bias is still bullish, very much bullish. Just because it formed a new all-time high does not mean that price is just going to start retracing immediately. In fact, there is no way to know because this will only be confirmed, you know, throughout the next couple of weeks where if we get some sort of break of structure or change in order flow on the daily timeframe, Then yeah, we're going to be looking at a retracement period, just like what we have seen each and every time Bitcoin goes through a new all-time high. If you take a look here, this was— sorry, this was your all-time high, and then boom, you go for a retracement period. This was your new all-time high, and you go for a retracement period. And right now we have formed a new all-time high. And basically since like 2024, every time we formed a new all-time high, we have gone through some kind of consolidation/retracement period. Now I'm not saying that this will happen again. This will only be confirmed throughout the next couple of weeks. But still, it's good to keep in mind and to understand that you do not need to go FOMO, like just FOMO into Bitcoin right now just because it's formed a new all-time high. So anyways, uh, daily chart is also bullish, and right now we have validated a new potential bullish order block right here, right? This is the exact same theory that I've been telling you guys about basically since this point, right? That's your first order block, okay, price pumps. There's your second order block, okay, price pumps. Now this becomes your third order block. And so this would be the first kind of area that we would look for price to retrace into, especially for the swing traders out there. This is where you would look to either add to your position or to potentially take a first position if you haven't already gotten into Bitcoin for whatever reason. Now that we've established all of this, let's hop into the lower timeframes to see what we can do. Now, over here you have a fair value gap on the 1-hourly chart, or as, you know, longtime followers of this channel would say, would understand, a fair value gap. So today the setup is going to be pretty simple. For me, I would personally look for a retracement into this fair value gap to take a long targeting 2R. Now again, for reasons that I've already established at the start of this video, we're not going to be expecting like a day where you're going to get just super high volatility and price is going to move like yesterday. Within a single hour, you moved from $109,500 to making a new all-time high, basically. Like, it moved $2,500 in the span of a single hourly candle. That's not going to be the type of day today is. In fact, Just to give you guys a quick little lesson, yesterday was FOMC, right? This is one of the biggest kind of news events that happen, you know, every month. And whenever you do see FOMC, just expect, especially if price action is also kind of shaping up and coiling up, right? If you look at the videos that I've done in the past few days, you know that the titles were always like, okay, Bitcoin's coiling up for an explosive move, where, you know, you're getting retracement and the price is kind of setting up, setting up. An FOMC boom, right? You get an explosion. This is usually the case with most FOMC events, and so the next time you see an FOMC, just expect there to be some sort of explosive movement. Now, all of the other news events will also give you some kind of movement, just not as big as the FOMC. So even for today, we're not expecting the kind of volatility that we are seeing, you know, that we've seen yesterday. And this is a very important skill to have as a trader, by the way, which is just purely identifying the type of market condition that you are in. Obviously, if the market is kind of chopping around, it's consolidating, it's accumulating, you're not going to be too rash to get into positions too quick. But if the market is trending and it's, you know, looking clean, then you're going to let go of some of that conservatism and you're going to jump in and be a bit more aggressive, right? And honestly, the struggle when it comes for, you know, most beginner traders is that they know what they're supposed to do, right? You know how your system works, you know the type of TA that you're supposed to do, you know what you're supposed to look for. But the tough thing is that you don't take into account the market conditions and then You know, maybe when the market is ranging, you start taking trades as though it was a trending market, or when it's a trending market and things are looking absolutely amazing and should be jumping in, boom, you're like waiting for too many confirmations as though it was a range trading condition. So just purely being able to, you know, take a look and account for the market condition that we're having today goes a long way to taking, or rather making, the right decisions. But anyways, taking a look at price today, again, this is your fair value gap. I do not see any other you know, way that, or any other kind of like key level that we could potentially trade. Outside of the fact that if you get a 1-hourly close above the exact level would be $111,300. If you do get an hourly close above this level, then you could look for a retracement before price heads up. And you would look for this sometime within the next 3 hours. Right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, it is 5:30 AM New York, which means there is exactly 3 hours until news. And so if you get some kind of break, then you would look for A retracement sometime, you know, between 8:30 to 9:30, and boom, boom, boom. But again, due to market conditions, I would not be targeting— I would not be aiming for too much, right? If we even touch the current all-time high, this would already be a win. But chances are, I think today we're just going to, you know, it's better to, you know, let's say your entry is here, you put your stop loss here, just literally target 2R, and that'll be the safe thing to do. If price decides to go further, you could also just take partial profits at 2R and then leave a runner But one thing you do not want to be doing in a situation like this where it's clearly low volatility is to aim for like 3, 4, 5, 6R and then risk, you know, put yourself at risk of getting stopped out breakeven or potentially even getting stopped out even after you're up like 2R, for example. Taking a look at the lower timeframes this time around, we have the Asia high and low that has not yet been violated. And in fact, much like yesterday, the London session really did not do much until the point where I made the video where we finally got that change in character or like You know, change in order flow, and we broke below the value area low and then started breaking higher. So that was the trigger. That was what I wanted to see yesterday to jump into a long. Today, we're— maybe it's because I'm recording the video an hour earlier compared to yesterday, but we so far we have not seen that yet. So specifically, the thing that you're going to want to look for is if you get the Asia low sweep during the New York morning and fill this fair value gap right here, all you want to look for is some kind of change in state of delivery. Basically, you just want to see like Bullish order blocks start to get respected and price starts forming new highs. That's the trigger that you need to take an entry, place your stop here, and target to R. The reason why this is such a powerful kind of setup is because Asia usually tends to be accumulation. London tends to be manipulation. Tends to be is a, you know, is the right word for this because today London has not yet given us the manipulation. And this is also a common scenario that you do see with news days where the Asia session and the London session could just be an extended accumulation before you get the true move that kind of happens during the New York morning. And Seems to be like today seems to be that type of day. So if you get a sweep within the next couple of hours, the sweep bam bam bam bam—that's what you want to look for—and you can just iterate the rest of the day towards the upside. But again, target two R. I wouldn't be looking to trade today too aggressively. Now the second scenario is again you just get a break above there. Then whatever odd blocks they get, like heck, you could even just place this entry stop and just target two R just like that. Again, if you touch the current all-time high, you're already lucky because again, high volatility to low volatility and vice versa. Now, if you go past the current all-time high, let's take a look at where the current price of today could take us. And taking a look at the standard deviation expansions, we can see that $112,800 seems to be a reasonable target purely based off of today's range. Now again, I'm saying that this is going to be less likely to happen. So just keep that in mind. But, you know, if price runs, this is a potential target. Could even be $113,550. Not saying it's going to happen, but if it does, then that's kind of a target that you can aim for. Now, lastly, we do need to talk about an invalidation scenario, right? What if, you know, right now after you formed a new all-time high, price is just going to start dumping from this point onwards? And so we do need to account for that. Now, one thing that I will say about that is the fact that this entire blue block right here, this remains to be a very strong potential level of support, which means that until this level gets broken through and like price comes to retest it to form a new like lower high, only at that point do we start considering taking shorts. Because at the moment, based on every, you know, visible factor that we can see from the weekly chart to the daily chart to the 1-hourly chart to the 5-minute chart, it is looking bullish still. And as traders, it's very important to understand that we only— like, there are things that we We think could happen, right? I think that a retracement or some kind of reversal could happen, but until the market actually shows me the right conditions where that is actually happening, I'm going to stay on my hands and I'm going to be patient, right? And if you can also learn to do that as well, then you will be very successful as a trader. Otherwise, like, remember, if you do not get this condition or if you do not get that condition, no trade, okay? We want to play today a little bit more cautiously, but doesn't mean that we are going to completely ignore trades. Now, one final word of caution is that even if you were to get this kind of like breakout move within the next couple of hours, the dangerous thing about this is the fact that you have relatively equal lows down here, right? 1, 2, 3, 4, and potentially even 5. So if I have to put my money somewhere, I would even say that if you get that kind of like breakout, it may even just be a false breakout before price sweeps out this level and then just chops around for the rest of the day. So if you get this first, just beware. Like if you're up like 1 hour or whatever, move your stop to break even so that you do not get stopped out by or from price basically just tapping out all of these relatively equal lows. Okay, and lastly guys, the vlog is going to go live on the second channel tomorrow. If you would like to just follow along with the, you know, more of the personal side or rather day-to-day life of a trader who's also traveling, then yeah, subscribe to the second channel and stay tuned. It's going to be dropping tomorrow at 1 PM GMT. Otherwise, have a great day guys. Ciao!