In this commentary, the speaker argues that virtually any crypto asset, including Immutable X (IMX), will experience massive price appreciation during the next bull market due to unprecedented inflows of mainstream capital. He outlines the broader shift toward mainstream crypto awareness, the historical scale of money entering the market, and the resulting valuation multipliers. The core of his analysis focuses on the play‑to‑earn (P2E) gaming sector, critiquing the majority of current P2E projects as low‑quality and likening them to Ponzi schemes, while highlighting a few worthwhile games such as Gods Unchained. He positions IMX not as a game developer but as a “shovel” – a layer‑2 infrastructure provider that reduces Ethereum gas fees and enables P2E games to scale. The speaker uses the gold‑rush shovel analogy to explain why infrastructure providers can capture outsized upside. He acknowledges a key risk: the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 upgrade could render IMX’s unique selling proposition obsolete if it eliminates the need for its scaling solution. Ultimately, he predicts that, assuming IMX’s infrastructure remains relevant, the token could see 20‑50× gains in the next bull cycle, making it a compelling investment within the broader P2E resurgence.
Chapters
IMX hasn't had a bull run. Is it likely to have a good run in the next bull run? Everything has a good run in a bull run. Even if it is absolute trash, it will have a good run in a bull run. Even if it doesn't do 100x, it's going to do 20, 30, 40, 50x. It's just bull market things, especially crypto bull market things. And especially when you consider the fact that in the next 3 to 5 years, like currently we are on the cusp of mainstream adoption with NFTs and regulation and everybody talking about crypto now. Nowadays, like 5 years ago, a lot of you wouldn't have known about Bitcoin. Now a lot of you know about Bitcoin. And if you go onto the street, they might, like when I talk to people, the common trend that I identify is that people don't know what is crypto, but they know what's Bitcoin, right? So you're starting to see a shift there. We are on the cusp of mainstream adoption, which means the next market cycle, it is going to be some of the most money, like it is going to be the most money that comes into the crypto space in the history of crypto. And we have not seen like this scale of money coming in Before. So if you look at it that way, all these new investors, all this fresh exit liquidity for us, what do you think they're gonna be looking at? They, like, most likely they're gonna be like you in this last bull run. They're gonna look at anything that has hype, that is interesting, and they're gonna jump into it. Fair enough. That's what everybody goes through. That is what every— that is what the markets need in order to go ridiculously high in valuation. Like, if I go onto Total 3, if I go onto Total, this is what the markets need in order to go from Like absolutely zero to there, that's about a 364x in terms of crypto market cap. 2020 crash to, you know, it's a bull market, quote unquote bull market peak, that's 24.25x. In order for that to happen, you need a lot of money that comes into the space, like $2.9 trillion worth of money from 2020 to the 2021, you know, peak. And from, from the 2016, 2015 sort of You know, bear market, which I'm actually just going to use a logarithmic chart. But this is a little bit more clearer. And let's remove the logarithmic curves. Move basement. So in order for the crypto markets to go through this kind of valuation gain, right, 350x, it went from $2.4 billion, like $2 billion, up to $750 billion. You need money to do that. It needs to come into the space. Crypto, comparatively speaking to other traditional asset classes, pales in comparison to market cap. So If you look at the way that the next wave is going to be the biggest, like every wave is bigger than the next, right? In terms of money, it might not be that way in terms of dollar, like percentage gain, but in terms of the dollar amount of people, like fresh money coming into the markets, it's going to be the biggest. And then you look at like back to the question of IMX, is IMX going to have a bull run? Absolutely. In my opinion, crypto gaming is one of the best. I would say it's the next wave. I mean, it had its wave, but I wouldn't really call that a wave because A lot of the crypto gaming stuff is absolute trash. Like trash. Like, how do I put this? They are games predicated on primarily pay-to-earn, but they are not games primarily predicated on making a good game. At least most of them aren't. Maybe amongst so many crypto games, so many pay-to-earn games, play-to-earn games, there's really only like 1% of the games that are actually worth playing and are actually fun to play. Like for example, I I used to play this game called Gods Unchained, and I still own like almost 10 grand in cards in that game, like worth of Ethereum. And I'm happily invested in that game. And I used to play that as well. Like, so I'm a big fan of card games. Nobody, none of you know this, but I've been playing Hearthstone for a while and I love Hearthstone. It's just some, there's just something in the inner trader in me that really likes a strategic game where I have to think about stuff. So Hearthstone, Gods Unchained, absolutely love that. Card games, right? And, but even though, like, I know that Gods Unchained is going to be much more of a better use of my time per se, because the cards that I buy in Gods Unchained actually have value. I can sell the cards back to the marketplace when I'm done with it. Meanwhile, in Hearthstone, I sink in about $500 every year, probably more. About $500 a year, I think so, yeah. Into Hearthstone to buy card packs that I cannot get any form of return on investment on other than, you know, my fun. Why do I do it? Because Hearthstone is, in my opinion, a much better game than Gods Unchained. Much more polished, much more fun. Sound effects are nicer, visual effects are nicer, and bigger player base. So much content create— so many content creators, stuff like that. You know, it's fun. It is actually a good game. Now, the monetization aspect of it might not be good, as it is, as Blizzard is infamous for, but the game itself, I like it. It's a good game, much better game than Gods Unchained. Now, Gods Unchained has the best intentions in mind when it is making the game. to make a good game, but you cannot simply, at this point, at this current point in time, you just simply cannot compete with all these big market AAA game developer studios or whatever. They have more budget, they have more experience, they have a better team, stuff like that. So currently, even though play-to-earn has went through a little bit of a wave in the form of Gala, I'm just going to go onto Gala, example. Like Gala went through its own little wave. For example, if we just take a look at Binance, it went up almost 40x from the bottom. You have the wave with like Wax P, even though it's not particularly popular. Okay, this one's absolutely dead, so let's not look at Wax P. Um, the other one was Sandbox. Sandbox, right, went up by a lot. About how much is this? Wow, went up by 100x. Wait, is this 100x? Yeah, 100x from the bottom in essentially a year. So play-to-earn games have by no means been stagnant. Like, they have gone through a wave, but what people are missing from the bigger picture here is that most play-to-earn games, 99% of them, are absolute trash, and they are Nowhere close to being a fun game. And in my opinion, in the next wave coming, like in the next incoming wave, play-to-earn gaming is going to be at the forefront of crypto and is going to— what it is going to be something that brings in the masses into, well, crypto, expose them to crypto. Now, is that going to happen? I'm not sure, because play-to-earn as a concept is, well, it seems a lot like a Ponzi. So it's very hard to get the token Tokenomics and the monetization aspect correct. But if they can nail that, if there are studios that can nail that while making a good game, then play-to-earn is going to be the biggest, one of the top three like fields that will give you the biggest return over well the next bull cycle. And if you look at that, so coming back to IMX, the reason why I went off on a tangent on play-to-earn gaming is because IMX is primarily a play-to-earn. Sort of company, but instead of trying to create a game, which actually they already have a game, which is God Unchained. But instead of trying to create games, they are more so focusing on. Let's go over to Immutable. All right, IMX. Instead of trying to focus on creating games, they are focusing on is being like you know how in the gold rush back in the 1800s and the 1900s, the people who made the most money are the ones who sold the pickaxes and the shovels and the tools and. Everything you need to mine gold instead of going into the desert, into the into the wild wild west to look for gold. People, the people who make the most profit are the ones selling the shovels and stuff. And IMX, based on the infrastructure that they're building, they are trying to be that shovel. They're trying to be the people selling the shovels essentially. They are creating the infrastructure for Ethereum like Ethereum over because Ethereum gas fees are high, right? It might not be high right now because. People have lost interest in NFTs, and the Ethereum network at the moment is not congested at all. It is nowhere close to congested. It is very, very open. But what happens in the next bull market when? To be honest, in the next bull market, there's probably going to be Ethereum 2.0 by that point. Hopefully, hopefully it's going to come. It's been delayed quite a bit. But assuming that Ethereum 2.0 comes along, then it's going to be good. But you know, IMX. I like IMX for the reason. That they are building the infrastructure for play-to-earn gaming. They're not trying to get involved in making the games themselves. So in that sense, IMX is going to do very well in the next bull market, assuming that their unique selling proposition does not simply get destroyed by Ethereum 2.0, which at this point, I have not looked into that yet. I have not thought into that yet. So I can't give you an answer at the moment. But as long as its USP does not get absolutely, becomes obsolete by Ethereum 2.0 coming out, then it's going to be good. Now, that is a very long-winded way of— very roundabout way to give you my answer, but hopefully that answer is of help.
