POPCAT & WIF Bottom Is Almost In, Don't Miss This
In this solo‑presenter video, Roman Ceccardi argues that the meme/altcoins PopCat (POP) and WIF are approaching or have reached their market bottoms, contingent on Bitcoin’s broader trend. He frames his thesis using the “Century Model,” highlighting a post‑dump value area, deviations below that area (discount zones), and recent liquidity sweeps that have cleared long‑standing stop‑loss clusters. Ceccardi explains how smart‑money participants (institutional players, market makers) create these sweeps, and why retail traders can profit by aligning with them. He identifies several confluences – a four‑month‑old liquidity level, the true yearly open, higher‑timeframe support/resistance, fair‑value gaps, and Fibonacci 0.618/0.705 zones – to construct high‑probability entry setups. Specific trade parameters are given: buying near current price, stop‑loss just below the swing low, target at the prior all‑time high, yielding 5×‑10× returns with risk‑to‑reward ratios up to 40:1. The analysis is repeated for both PopCat and WIF, noting similar patterns. Throughout, Ceccardi promotes his paid “Alpha Group” for deeper instruction, and ends with standard YouTube calls‑to‑action.
Chapters
In this video, I'm going to be sharing with you a setup that I see on PopCap and WIF that we have truly been waiting for since all the way back in November. I believe that the bottom for PopCap and WIF is going to be either in or very close to being in. Of course, this is very largely dependent on Bitcoin. Of course, if Bitcoin starts dumping, then PopCap and WIF are not going to have a great time. But at the moment, I have shared my thesis across the last 3 days worth of videos that, hey, the Bitcoin bottom is in. And based on that, we have a couple of good reasons to start jumping into PopCap and WIF. Now, the setup that I'm to be talking about on Blockpad and WIF is very similar to what we had back here, where you had some kind of a value area after a big dump. And in this case, this was a dump all the way from $2. So this was more than a 50% retracement. So that's like criteria number 1 within the Century Model. But essentially you have a value area going from high volatility to low volatility, and you want to see deviation below the value area low, or rather in this case, the range low. Like after deviating, price eventually tried to break above, but then Currently, it failed one more time, and this right now gives us a very unique opportunity because whenever you deviate above the value area high, this is known as a premium. This is essentially an area where you want to look to sell, and same goes for here. Once you form this new value area, this is a premium zone, and this is where you want to look to sell. But in both of these cases, currently we have deviated below the value area low, which puts us in a discount opportunity. This means that as long as we're able to pair other confluences with this deviation below the value area low, then this is potentially an A+ setup we have looking at us. And the other confluences in this case would be this liquidity level over here. This is a level that has not yet been taken all the way since September 6th, so it's currently been 4 months since this level has been tapped. Now, just to give you an idea of why this level holds such significance, one thing you need to understand is that some of the biggest moves in the market tends to come after liquidity sweeps. For example, when Right here is a liquidity sweep. The moment you sweep it, boom, explosive move hitting a new all-time high. Now, of course, this only applies when the market is about to start shifting into an uptrend or the market is already in an uptrend. For example, right here, after you sweep the liquidity, boom, that's where the explosive move begins. This is known as a counterparty liquidity sweep. Now, the significance, or rather the reason why liquidity sweep works so well, is due to one thing and one thing only, and that's the nature of market participants. What you need to understand about the financial markets in general is that first of all, everyone's in it to make money, right? It's not in our best interest to lose money. We're all here to make some. Pretty obvious. I get it. But then here's where the second part comes into play, which is the fact that the markets, or rather the largest moves in the markets, tend to be initiated and controlled by the big players, including the market makers, the big hedge funds, the institutional funds, whatever. Right? The big players—they're the only ones who have enough capital and the amount of talent as well as algorithms to meaningfully move price in a certain direction. Now, here's the interesting part: these guys, like whenever retail traders make money, we're not just making it out of thin air, right? This is not business. This is not the general economy. When we win money, the keyword win—we're taking it from somebody else who is losing money. And in the majority of cases, whenever we do win money. It's the market makers that are paying us out of their own pocket. So it's very much not in their best interest to allow retail traders to win. And here's where liquidity concepts come into play and why this is so effective, why smart money trading works. We are trading alongside the smart money who are going to stop out, right? In a majority of cases, they look to stop out the majority of retail traders, take their money, get them to enter into the market or exit the market at a very bad position before they move the market in the way they want to. Now here's where liquidity sweeps come to play. Over here you have a swing low. There are usually 2 types of people looking to trade along around this level. One is people who have their stop losses set right underneath this level. This is being taught in all levels of trading education, including myself, by the way, like as a retail trader. And probably you as well who's watching this video as retail traders. Well, if you're— if you happen to be like an institutional trader or like a smart money trader, then I hope you're gaining value out of this video. But anyways, for us retail traders, across every level we are taught that, hey, if you place a long, then you want to place your stop loss underneath the previous swing low for whatever reason, right? It could be that this swing low is a support level, or this could just be a general invalidation level. Whatever the case, majority people set their stop losses underneath previous swing lows, similar to how we set our stop loss above previous swing highs. Now, this already puts one major party on of market participants underneath this level, right? This becomes an area of interest. Now here comes the second party, which is the breakout/breakdown traders. When this quote-unquote strong support level gets taken or it gets broken down, there are a lot of people that are going to look to sell the market thinking that it's going to go into a new all-time low. Now, do I agree with this methodology of doing things? Absolutely not, because, well, a breakout— like, if you start shorting the breakdown, You're essentially shorting very low, like you're selling very low, expecting to, you know, buy even lower, which is generally not the ideal strategy. Ideally, you want to be buying low and selling high. That's general consensus of the best way to make money in the markets. So currently we have just gotten that liquidity sweep, right? Meaning the majority of the market participants have already been stopped out. And if there is a moment where, like, first of all, you have a higher timeframe liquidity level on the daily chart that has yet to be taken, For four months at this point. Secondly, you have a value area low that's forming after a almost seventy or eighty percent retracement. In this case, eighty percent actually. You get a value area, which means going from high volatility to now a period of low volatility. You have got a deviation above the value area low. Sorry, a value area high. Now you've got a deviation below that sweeps the liquidity at an eighty percent retracement. Plus the fact that you are very close to the bottom. Plus the fact that if we go onto PopCap chart, that is ideally something that has a little bit more price action so that we have more history to reflect back on. Then you can see that we are currently— let's see if we can line where current price is to some kind of a major support level. And we do in fact have a major support level. Not only that, but we zoom in on what's happening on current price action. I don't know if you guys can see this clearly, but this is the true yearly open, which is Um, one of the indicators— well, not indicators, one of the concepts that I use to trade, just find key levels that other people would not even notice in the first place. Like, a lot of the people think that the yearly open is just the 1st of January, right? It's the first candle of a new year, and so that must be the yearly open. But in reality, one of the reasons that a lot of smart money traders do not actually trade January February and even March. It's because the price action in this first quarter of the year tends to be an accumulation quarter, and the true yearly open actually comes on April. This is one of the concepts that I teach in the AOC Alpha Group. So if you just want to get access, or rather learn the exact trading system that I'm using to call really accurate trades just like this in public, then feel free to check out the first link in the description box below. Just a humble plug, but something that I believe is truly going to help you. But anyways, this is the true yearly open, which means that price has currently retraced back to the true yearly open from last year. And it's not until like a couple months later when we will get the true yearly open for this year. But anyways, that's another key level, plus the fact that you have a higher time frame support resistance where you find resistance here, support here for the most part, support again here for the most part. Currently you're about to find support here again, and so All of these factors add up to the fact that, hey, probabilistically, or rather just looking at the statistics and looking at the probabilities, it's very likely to be the bottom. In fact, an 80% retracement is one of the criteria that I look for when it comes to determining bull market bottoms for altcoins, because altcoins tend to go through 50-80% retracements very commonly throughout a bull run. And this happens, I think, probably like 3 times a year, just as a rule of thumb. So whenever you do see 50-80% retracements on a coin that has been performing well Throughout a bull run, that's usually a really good signal for you to buy into a highly valuable asset at highly discounted prices. So with all of this said, then the setup currently is very clear. Even without going into the lower timeframe charts, the setup in this case would, whatever the case, be buying into price at around current levels at this moment, having a stop loss underneath this swing low, and your target is going to be the previous all-time high. And the fact that this is currently at 80% retracement means that just by catching to the previous all-time high, even without accounting for price going higher than what it currently is, you're already going to get a 5x return on this trade at a very— with a very reasonable stop loss of 30%. And this is of course assuming that you jump into price, or rather you jump into whatever asset that we're looking at at current prices after it has pumped. If you were to be able to identify some kind of key level or just some kind of value area to get into by zooming into the lower time frames, then guess what? Your risk reward is only going to increase. For example, right here you have a 4-hourly fair value gap, and as you retrace into the fair value gap, boom, that's where the explosive move happens. So currently the play could even be that you find another fair value gap, which price is currently very close to at the moment, place your stop at the end of the swing low right here, and place your take profit at the previous all-time high, which would give you a 10% stop loss and a potential 400% return. I don't know about you, but a 40:1 risk-to-reward ratio trade is a trade that I would like to take, you know, whenever I have the opportunity to take it. But just one last thing to keep in mind is that currently you are trying to break back into value area. So this is your value area right here, and currently you have broken back into it. You have currently accepted back into it, and so this retracement Right here, let me just show you how price action looks. This is price accepting back into the value area. The fact that you have not broken below and like started finding the value area low as resistance for price to go lower means that this is a very bullish sign. It means that you have accepted back into the value area. There are interested buyers in keeping price supported and going to pump back to the opposite side of the value area. So with all that said, This is the high probability entry model, or rather the high probability entry that I see currently on PopCap and WIF, which is, which are coins, by the way, that are OGs throughout this bull run. These are new meme coins throughout this bull run, and they have performed significantly well throughout the entirety of last year. It's only until like 3 or 4 months ago where they really started to lose steam. But this does not mean that you should sleep on them because they were one of the very first coins to start this cycle. All the way back in early 2024 and even late 2023. And because they started this cycle early, they also started their cycle, or rather they ended their cycle earlier compared to almost everything else. And because of this, it's not quite reason for concern because their time will eventually come. And when they do come, like hopefully you will have watched this video and took and taken action on both of these coins just because the risk reward here is just so significant. You're not really Needing to risk much in return for, well, just a really big return. So just taking a look at WIF in this case, applying it to WIF, it's going to be pretty similar where you have a liquidity sweep right here. Boom, price takes out liquidity all the way from August of 2024. So in this case, WIF is— the liquidity sweep on WIF is even more significant than PopCat because, well, this is liquidity that has been present for 5 months compared to PopCat's 4 months. And currently you also have value area. We deviated above the value area, tried to break into the previous value area, but failed to accept back into it. If you guys remember what acceptance is, it's breaking back into the value area, finding support at the value area low, because this is a sign that there are interested buyers in keeping price supported at this level. Well, you didn't quite get that, and so you broke back into the lower value area, accepted back into it, and Currently you have deviated below the value area, which puts this at a discount zone, plus a liquidity sweep means that chances are this is a very similar level, or rather this is a very similar— in fact, this is a carbon copy setup compared to PopCap. And so the entry that I would look at, like, and this by the way is also very similar to PopCap where you have a fair value gap right here, stop loss underneath that low. And this fair value gap also happens to line up very perfectly with the fib lining up at 0.618 and 0.705. Which by the way, guys, this is not a coincidence. These types of patterns repeat every single day across all financial assets, and it's because there is always smart money manipulation in whatever financial market that you're looking at. Now, of course, this would be the ideal entry. An alternative entry would be to wait for price to break back into the value area, and you want to look for acceptance at, you know, this value area right here. And that would be scenario number 2. Now guys, if you have been finding value from the free YouTube videos, then you're gonna absolutely love the Alpha Group. This is just some of the wins that we've been able to achieve. In within just the last month of December where price action was horrendous and the majority of altcoins were actually dumping. But we were able to achieve all of these wins within a really terrible month. So you can only imagine what we can do now that market conditions are way better and that we're about to begin the most parabolic phase in the bull run. Now, if you're tired of just underperforming and not making the money that you know you can be making from a bull run, then guys, start the year strong. Consider joining the Alpha Group. I only say this because I know it's going to benefit you and not because it's a cash grab or whatever. But anyways, if you watch until this point in the video so far, I think you deserve to drop a like on this video and to subscribe if you want to see more analyses and smart money perspective on crypto. I will be posting many more updates as we head into the most exciting phase of the bull run. Anyways, guys, cheers. See you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.
