SUI Price Prediction and Insights (Market Update)

What's up everyone? Post the dip, SUI has been one of the top performing tokens, pumping 140% from its lows. Now the question is, is this going to be just a short-term thing because you had quite a few influencers shilling this thing, or is this going to be a longer-term trend that we are now just being early to? And this is something I'm going to cover in this video. We're going to look at the technicals, we're going to look at the fundamentals, and overall give you a decent picture of SUI, whether or not this is worth a spot in your portfolio or not. So without any further ado, let's dive right into a little bit of fundamentals first. Now SUI is essentially what people call as the Solana killer. And with Solana being such a high market cap already, people, you know, just are looking for the catch-up play or the beta play. And while SUI definitely does have that potential, now even though that is the case, with seemingly the entirety of Twitter completely focused on SUI, you can see that there is still a very large gap between the mindshare that Solana holds versus the mindshare that SUI holds. Shout out to Kaito AI. This is one of the best pages to follow on Twitter, by the way, for those of you who are interested in good quality alpha. And comparative mindshare over the last 6 months has definitely— well, SUI doesn't even come close to being This Solana killer mentality. So at least on the fundamental side of things, I don't think that SUI is really going to overtake Solana. First things first, Solana is already so established. It's arguably the most valuable chain in the entirety of crypto, putting Ethereum aside. And honestly, right now, mindshare on Ethereum is pretty much at an all-time low versus Solana. All eyes are on Solana. Not only are the meme coins popping, you have a lot of interesting protocols being built on Solana, and everyone's just really bridging over to Solana and staying in Solana. They're choosing Solana over Ethereum. Solana is arguably, like, fundamentally speaking, way, way, way more valuable than SUI is, and it's not even a competition. I will make a video giving you a price prediction for Solana and exactly what trade that you can take on Solana very, very soon. If you're interested in checking that out, make sure you subscribe, turn on the bell so that you don't miss that video. But besides that, one of the other things you need to understand about leaders in general in the crypto markets is that first of all, most of the money goes into the leaders. When someone new comes into the market, they will obviously start with YouTube videos or Twitter, and most of these YouTube accounts and Twitter accounts will understandably talk about the leaders such as Solana, because not only is it more established, it's a lot more of safer play, it just makes sense to talk about it. And the more people that talk about this, the more people buy it, and that makes more people talk about it and makes more people want to, you know, build protocols on it and to make meme coins on it, to trade on it and stuff like that, right? It's a virtuous cycle. And this is one of the reasons why leaders always capture the bulk of the money during a bull market. You look at Dogecoin in the last cycle, it pretty much went to like $60 or $80 billion. Shiba went to about $40 billion. And the rest of the other meme coins, people were trying to look for the next Doge or the next Shiba, and none of them even got close to $10 billion Between $3 and $5 billion market cap actually. There is merit in focusing on the leader. Sure, you can allocate a small percentage of your portfolio into something that is known as a beta play, like SUI, a potential Solana killer. But the majority of your money should definitely be allocated into the alpha play, which is something larger cap, something with a much higher probability, and something that's already much more established. Now, even though that is the case, I'm not saying that SUI is complete trash and that you shouldn't consider this at all, because now we can dive into the technicals and see if there is a potential in a trade idea for SUI in the upcoming months. So taking a look just at the weekly chart, We can see that this is pretty much, you know, its all-time low. It's currently very close to the all-time low with a retracement from the top of about 80%, which is a really good sign and something that I specifically look for during a bull market when buying retracements. Now, the fact that we have, you know, a little bit of liquidity down here is a little bit of a cause for concern, but for the most part, every swing low from basically when it was like 50 cents has already been taken out, meaning most of the people that went long at any point here, they would've been either stopped out or they're currently at breakeven right now, or potentially even in the negative. And the reason why this is important to understand is that the markets only pump when, you know, the institutions behind, you know, the price that actually moves the price, who has enough money to move the price, they've taken out enough of the stops and they've basically caused most people to get shaken out. Only then does the market tend to reverse and reverse parabolically. So essentially, even though there is still a very key level of liquidity down here, for the most part, you know, everyone is stopped out already. And the fact that this is the second thing that you want to pay attention to is the fact that we have just gotten what is known as a broken base, or something like a change of character, or something like a break of structure. Whatever you want to call it is fine. I call it a broken base. Essentially, it's a sell-side liquidity sweep taking out sell-side liquidity, but also, you know, sell-side liquidity here that immediately leads to a market structure break. So you have went from basically from a high, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, and then immediately right after you sweep sell-side liquidity, immediate break of structure, and now you have a high high. So right now, this is a really good sign, and this is one of the highest probability market structure break patterns that I use. And right now, the fact that you have just gotten this higher high means that anywhere within this zone here, you can reasonably expect the market to form a higher low. And of course, once you get the higher low, well, everything else is pretty self-explanatory— you pump. Overall, fundamentally, it's not that there's anything wrong with SUI, it's just that Solana is still very much the alpha play. And if you do get into SUI, this is very much a beta play, meaning smaller allocation of your portfolio. Something else that you can consider when it comes to SUI is one of the reasons why I avoided SUI for basically the longest period of time is because they had this huge cliff unlock. If you take a look at the tokenomics of SUI, and this is a very heavily VC-backed token, meaning the majority of the buyers in SUI or the majority of the token holders are owned by early backers, investors, advisors, VCs, whatever. So essentially at the end of April, you saw the circulating supply of SUI go from 1.3 billion tokens, almost doubling to $2.3 billion. And one thing you have to remember is that the majority of the tokens getting unlocked during this cliff unlock are early investors who are up basically 20, 50, or even 100x at that point already. And this is also the reason why prior to that event, well, this is what led to the sell-off in terms of SUI. And so before you invest into any tokens, a really good thing to do is to check if there is any upcoming cliff unlocks. Because previously it was at the price of $2 per token, that's $2 billion of tokens getting unlocked overnight. And one thing you need to remember is that that's $2 billion worth of buying pressure that needs to happen on the day itself just to keep the price stable. But that's not going to be the case because remember, all the early investors are all in Deep, deep, deep, deep profits. There's no reason for them to hodl onto this token, and so you're getting additional you know hundreds of millions or potentially billion dollars worth of sell pressure, and that's something that leads to Sui going through an 80% sell-off from the top. Now that that's over, like the tokenomics look a lot more you know normal now in the sense that on every year, like year by year, you gain about 25% worth of inflation, which for most crypto tokens is pretty normal. So does Solana. It has about like 15 to 20% worth of inflation, and that's fine. So we've already established that you know at current prices. Or like whatever we're seeing on SUI right now is a really good sign. So let's refine this a little bit more and find like specific areas where we want to be buying from. And immediately we can see that price within this low to this high, it hasn't even hit the 50% range yet, which means that currently anything above the 50% is known— is what's known as a premium. And ideally when you're trying to buy something, you want to buy it in a discount, not a premium. Buying in a premium, you're sort of like buying an iPhone at like $5,000. You're still getting an iPhone, you're paying a lot more than what it's worth. But buying at a discount would be like buying an iPhone at like $300. It's a really, really fair price. And this is something that the institutional traders and the market makers really pay attention to. They almost never accumulate big buy positions when the price is still in a premium. They always bring it down into not only a discount but a deep discount. And in terms of the deep discount, we can see that this zone here between the 0.618 and the 0.705 could be the area to watch out for. It does concern me that we do not have a lot of volume around this area to, you know, give us potential areas of support. And so this time around, we are very much going to just use a little bit of a fair value gap and, you know, just a fib to make our judgment here. In this level here, you can see that there is a gap in price that eventually got filled. So in this case, we are really very much going to just use the fibs as a potential retracement zone for us to get into SUI. And in this case, we're going to look at this level right here. This was a past order block, or like just a volume area. And in this case, I'm just going to draw this line right here at around 0.6967, or if you want to call it 0.7. Now the reason why this line is here where it is, is because I'm just using past historical, you know, support resistance. Now you can give or take, you know, like $0.1 here because you just want to find an area where price has historically had a lot of reaction around. And you can see that previously price stopped around 687 for multiple times, including this time. And realistically, this is the only key level that we have to work with when we are viewing a potential retracement zone, and that's going to be right at around 0.69. And so if the price were to return back to 0.69, this would be a great area to buy in, at least looking from the daily chart. If we refine this back down to the 4-hourly chart, you can see that there is very clearly a fair value gap over here, which further supports this theory and further adds confluence. So that's going to be entry number 1, which is waiting for some kind of a retracement. Now entry number 2 is going to be more of a momentum style trade. Given the fact that at the moment we are anticipating a higher low to form here, it also means that eventually we anticipate the market to make a higher high to break this high. If we get this situation where price doesn't retrace back into this area and just goes straight up, breaks the high, which means that you really, really confirm a bullish trend change Like this right here, this one little break of structure. The fact that we haven't confirmed a higher low yet means that we're really only halfway to confirming a bullish trend change. But the moment we get a higher low and a higher high, boom, right? We're going to be looking at 3 to 6 months or more potentially of bullish price action for SUI. And if that's the case, then the other entry that you can look for is a break of structure into a little retracement. Now it's going to be super simple to draw this thing. Just go from the low here, assuming this is the low of course, draw it up and boom, Boom, you wanna look for a 50% retracement to a 0.618 or a 0.705. Anywhere around that area, you're gonna be good. Essentially, you're also anticipating a higher low to form around this area, and then boom, you're gonna go much higher than that. And so that's entry number 2. Now let's take a look at potential target. And immediately you have all the previous swing highs over here that can act as really good targets. If you are a short-term trader, meaning you're not planning on holding this for a potential 3, 5, 10x, then the play's going to be taking profit at around 1.44, 1.72, and 2.18. Now what if you are the long-term investor and you want to take profits sometime later, well then it's really good to take a look at the current market cap of SUI and then compare it to Solana. Solana is currently a multi-hundred billion dollar market cap coin, but even if you were to put SUI— a very solid layer 1 by the way— at just a valuation of around $50 billion or even $25 billion, which, you know, meme coins did this kind of performance during the last bull run, then even just at $20 billion You're looking at a potential 10x from this current point onwards, and that puts you know Sui to eight dollars and potentially even higher. If you're a long-term investor, honestly, like I don't want to give you target targets per se, but the only thing that will really help you in terms of this is understanding the market cycles. So essentially Q2 Q3 tends to be pretty bad months for the whole of crypto, and Q1 Q4 tends to be really good. We saw this during the well basically from September 2023, where Sui went from 0.36 to 2.14. That's a 7x return. This happened. Across all the other altcoins as well. And one thing you definitely need to know is that the later the bull market goes, the more parabolic the moves are going to become. And right now, just to add a little fun fact, is that a lot of the coins, especially like layer 1s, have a similar, you know, structure to Cardano at the moment. Now, for those of you who were in the bull run during the last cycle, you would have remembered that Cardano had a nice little initial run-up. It basically went like 6x even during the bear market. And even after the bear market, as everything else was, you know, starting to take off, Cardano actually went through a big, big full-on Again, it actually had a little initial run-up post-COVID, went through a little retracement, and then afterwards bull market really like goes parabolic. So Cardano basically goes from 10 cents all the way up to $3. And right now SUI could totally pull off a similar move. Am I saying that is gonna happen? No, but it's just a possibility to keep in mind. And just remember that when you're in a bull market, you have to think of movements in one order of magnitude higher, meaning that, you know, instead of thinking in terms of 100%, you really wanna be thinking in 10x terms because truthfully, this is how a bull market works. A lot of you watching this video might have never been through a real, real serious bull market before, especially the exponential pump phase. And if you haven't, that's okay. This is the bit of advice: think bigger, right? Think in terms of 10x bigger. This is just how bull markets work. Anyways, if you want to get access to my trade ideas as well as my teams with exact setups and just get all the alpha you need to help you stay ahead of the markets, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Currently opening the alpha group up for a little bit, and all you have to do is reply alpha to the first email that you get and we'll set you right up. Anyways, see you guys in the next video. Bye-bye.