In this YouTube market commentary, the presenter opens with a reminder about a $25,000 giveaway for Blueprint and Bootcamp scholarships, urging viewers to submit entries within 48 hours. He then reviews recent Bitcoin price action, noting that despite a FOMC event, the market showed almost zero volatility, causing a short trade to be stopped at breakeven. The video explains how to reconcile conflicting signals between a bearish daily bias and a bullish 1‑hour Cumulative Swing Divergence (CSD), emphasizing that higher‑timeframe bias should dominate. The trader outlines his playbook: wait for a convincing CSD on the 5‑minute chart during the New York kill zone (7 am–10 am EST) and enter a short after a retracement, using order blocks and PD arrays as reference levels. He discusses the concept of “kill zones” (London 2 am–5 am EST, New York 7 am–10 am EST) as periods of higher probability moves, and warns that today is a non‑news day with lower volatility, so all conditions must be met before trading. The presenter stresses a probabilistic view of trading, recommending the book Thinking in Bets to improve understanding of uncertainty and risk. He promises to post trade updates on X and reiterates the giveaway deadline before signing off.
Chapters
What's good guys? Before we get into this video, just a reminder, you have 48 hours left to submit an entry into the $25,000 giveaway. And honestly, at this point, I'm even thinking about giving away more because after reading through some of your applications, I'm like, I really wanna help you. I also really wanna help you. Or like, I also really wanna help you. But at the end of the day, we are only giving away like what, 7 spots? I am genuinely considering giving away more. So if you haven't signed up to the $25,000 giveaway, you have nothing to lose. This is not like some random draw where I'm just pulling things out of a bucket. And I am going to be giving away these Blueprint and Bootcamp spots to to the people that not only deserve it, but are very likely to just be able to change their life using this scholarship. But anyways, if you want to submit an entry into the giveaway, it's the first link in the description box below, or just whatever the URL is. Like, I'm sure Clarence is gonna put it over here so you'll be able to see it. But with that out of the way, let's get into the video. And we're gonna kick things off on the daily chart here. And like, I'm just gonna start off with yesterday where we had such a weird situation. Even though we had FOMC, it's pretty rare to actually see an FOMC day where there was literally zero volatility. Now, don't get me wrong, the price action stuff that we were talking about in yesterday's video ended up happening, and we ended up getting into a trade just to be stopped out at breakeven because price was literally doing nothing. And our target wasn't even that far away. Like, the entry was at $62,000 and the target was at $61,000. And by the way, I share all of these entries from these YouTube videos on X. It's not gated behind some signals group. Like, I'm always going to be telling you guys when I'm entering, where I'm placing my stop, and giving updates and stuff like that. And overall, you'll see, like, Okay, we were, you know, we had a good initial move, but then even though our target was literally just $700 away, literally 1%, we couldn't get a 1% drop in the markets. Yeah, overall it just ended up having zero volatility and I just had to like, you know, I was going to bed, so set my stops to break even and that's that. So overall idea was correct yesterday, but like the market conditions were just not giving us anything. And if you know anything about trading, it's that we make money when there is volatility. After all, With trading, we can go long and we can go short. So it doesn't matter where the market's going, we can make money as long as the market is moving. Well, yesterday was not one of those days. Hopefully though, today is going to be different and I'm going to break it down in this video. So we're just going to start things off on the daily chart over here and we can see that we are still operating with an overall bearish daily bias. However, the moment you go down into the 1-hourly chart, you can start to see— oh, let me just remove all of the prior markings from yesterday. So you can see that yes, you have a bearish— sorry, a bullish CISD on the 1-hourly chart, which kind of indicates that price is going to turn bullish. But at the time, you're coming back into a very large bearish order block. In fact, this was the bearish order block that I was ideally looking for yesterday, but we didn't end up retracing back into that level yesterday. So in a situation like this, how do we navigate this, especially when there are 2 timeframes that are giving us conflicting kind of signals? Well, the answer to this question is always to focus on the higher timeframe bias. And the way that we deal with this situation where we have conflicting signals, where one timeframe is telling us down and the other timeframe is telling us up, Is that we always focus and we prioritize and we give a bit more weight to the higher time frame. So as an example, right now the hourly chart, okay, we have bullish CSD. Do I go long? But daily chart bearish. Should I go short? The way that I'm going to describe this is that when so the way that we want to think about this is that because the higher time frame, which is the daily chart, is pointing towards the downside at the moment, we give more weight to that. So almost we almost turn a blind eye to any sort of bullish CSDs because we know that this could just be a retracement into a PD array before price actually heads towards the downside. So the playbook for today is going to be. be awfully simple. Like, we're going to go down into the 5-minute chart and we're going to wait for some sort of a CSD. Now, obviously, we don't want to just be taking a trade right now because it's 5:30 AM. And if you know anything about— because it's 5:30 AM, and the reason why this matters is because when you trade the system that we have been using over the last year and a half or so to average like, what, a 78% win rate, the best trades are always taken within what is known as kill zones. Now, this is just a fancy term to describe like, basically, there are a few hours throughout You know, any trading day where high probability moves are most likely to happen during that window. So the London kill zone would be 2 AM to 5 AM New York, and the New York kill zone would be 7 AM to 10 AM New York. And right now we are literally in between kill zones. So ideally we don't want to be taking a trade here. Even if I get a signal right now, I'm not going to be taking it. Eventually, the playbook that we're, you know, going to operate from is simply when you enter into the New York kill zone, you want to see a convincing CSD on the 5-minute chart, whether it's to the downside, and you're going to wait for a retracement back into it in order to take a short. Now, this is just to show you an example of how How this might look like? It's, for example, yesterday, right? We came into a PD array on the one hourly chart right here. And when we get when we got into the New York kill zone, especially at let's say here 8:45 a.m., right? Is when we got a CISD on the five-minute chart, and that was the signal that we needed, right? We were looking for a short yesterday, and we just need the market to also confirm that it was also bearish. And once we got in through here, stop loss here, and obviously we were targeting for 61,300. It stopped just shy of it, like literally $200 shy of it, which is unfortunate. But again, like we can't really control. control how much volatility the market's going to give us. All we can control is, all right, what is the A+ setup that we're looking for today? What are the conditions required for that A+ setup to, you know, kind of meet the conditions? And when we see it, we simply execute. So for today is going to be a very similar story, right? By the time you watch this video, there is probably a couple things that could happen. Like one is that you continue sweeping up towards the upside, which is actually going to be a pretty good sign because then we'll basically have a potential 3 drives pattern right into that hourly PD array. And if you get that and then followed by that CSD, the trade is still going to be valid. As usual, I will be Updating any updates. If I do enter a trade or whatever, I'm going to be updating it on X. So feel free to just follow me there. But I am going to leave you with a quick disclaimer heading into today. Today is a non-news day, which means that there is not much of a reason for the markets to move aggressively. And the way that I'm going to explain this is that the reason why we trade on days where there are red folder high impact economic news for the USD is because when you have that piece of news, everyone's going to be looking at the market and going like, oh yeah, we have CPI at 8:30 AM later. I'm willing to bet that something big is going to happen at around that time. Now I may not know. In which direction that big move is going to happen, I'm pretty sure something is likely to happen at that time. The issue when you don't have news is that there's less of a reason, right? There's no catalyst for volatility. And so we the way that we're going to account for this is that just because this is what we're looking for, we want to be 100% certain that we have the confirmations and we have these conditions present before we dive into a trade. Because overall, today is a lower probability kind of trading day as compared to yesterday. Now yesterday was an example of a high probability trading day because we have FOMC, which happens once a month, which if you know anything about FOMC, tends to lead to pretty volatile moves. Now, just because yesterday is a high probability day though, one of the common misconceptions that, you know, I see, especially with people that are just starting out, they mistake high probability for certainty. And here's what you need to understand about the markets, right? The financial markets is, you know, a probabilistic game, meaning no matter what you do, you will never guarantee that you'll have a 100% kind of success rate on, you know, any outcome. The only thing that you can do is that you stack the deck in your favors, right? Okay, If we only trade on high-impact news days and we only trade when, you know, all of these conditions are met, we guarantee we maximize our chances of success, but we never guarantee that we will succeed on that, you know, single trade outcome, if that makes sense. That is, by the way, one of the kind of like core guiding principles behind all of my trading. In fact, I would even say that if you understand probability theory, you will figure out like trading is gonna start becoming a lot easier. And for any of you watching right now, if you want a really good book just to dive into probability theory, I would highly recommend Thinking in Bets by Annie That was one of the books that really helped, you know, kind of shape my trading and not only shape it, but I remember I was struggling a lot with understanding that, hey, you know, single trade outcomes don't really matter and how to calculate probabilities and how to deal with all this stuff and how to deal with uncertainty. I'm not sponsored by the book or anything. It's just, it's just a book that really helped me. So feel free to check it out. Other than that, it's just a reminder that again, the giveaway ends in 48 hours and ideally you submit an entry soon because I do actually need some time to read through your application. So just make sure you do it sooner rather than later. Again, you have nothing to lose. And if there are any updates to the trade or when I do enter a trade, I'm going to be updating you on X. But otherwise, I'll see you guys later tomorrow. Ciao ciao.
