the best trade for bitcoin today is not what you think
In this video, Xuan (the host) walks viewers through his systematic approach to trading Bitcoin on a given day. He begins by establishing a bullish weekly bias based on the previous week’s candle close and a cluster of highs around $67,000, then explains how the “Power of 3” concept lets him look for low‑risk long entries when price dips below the weekly open. He stresses that a weekly bias alone isn’t enough; a trade also requires confirmation from the daily bias (a bullish daily close for longs, bearish for shorts). Using the 1‑hour chart he identifies a bearish fair‑value gap near $64,350 and notes that the New York “kill zone” (7‑10 AM EST) is the optimal time to watch for a decisive change of structure (CSD) on the 5‑minute chart. He describes market phases—accumulation, manipulation, distribution—and how they can run counter to the daily bias, urging traders to wait for clear confirmation before entering. If the market instead trends upward, he outlines a momentum‑trading playbook: enter at the start of newly formed 5‑minute order blocks, set stop‑loss below the block, and target a 2:1 risk‑reward. Throughout, he references his personal track record (≈75 % win rate), promotes his paid trading program (≈60 students, many funded with $100k+), and recommends the FX Replay back‑testing tool. The overall message is to align weekly, daily, and intraday signals with time‑of‑day considerations to capture high‑probability trades while avoiding “catching falling knives.”
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Like, what a move from yesterday. Insane. You know, I take back what I say about Mondays not being super high probability because yesterday we read that perfectly. Unfortunately, I did not end up taking the trade, uh, for the reasons that I mentioned in the video yesterday. But if you ended up taking the trade and you made money, definitely let me know in the comments down below. I read every single one. But anyways, um, time to get into today's video and I'm going to break down the trade that I'm going to be looking for in terms of today. And believe it or not, it's going to be a lot more straightforward compared to yesterday Before we get into it though, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been doing on YouTube for the last year and a half. And so far in my lineup, I'm at about a 75% win rate, which means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. So with that out of the way though, let's actually get into the video. Now, kicking things off with the weekly bias, and the reason why I'm mentioning this is because it's pretty important to understanding of how the daily kind of profiles are going to start stacking up. In the bigger picture. Now, if that doesn't make sense, don't worry about it. I'm going to explain it. So because last week's candle closed bullish and the fact that we have a couple of relatively equal highs above here on the weekly chart at around $67,000, I am expecting this week, sometime this week, to actually head towards this level. At the very least, purely based off of the weekly bias, we're actually anticipating price to draw towards these targets. Now, draw is also another just fancy term to say that we're expecting price to go down. Now that we understand the weekly bias, then we can come into the daily chart. And if you remember something that I said from yesterday, a lot of the times, right, When you have the weekly bias, the thing that people struggle with is to— well, how do I make use of the information knowing that, okay, if I have a bullish weekly bias or whatnot, how do I make use of that? Well, the way that you do that is using a concept known as the power of 3. Essentially, if you are bullish for the week, anytime you go beneath the candle open, there is actually an opportunity for you to potentially buy low so that you can take advantage of a true move, like true expansion towards the upside. So you basically get the opportunity to buy low and then you sell high. So right now, whatever is happening on price action where, you know, Monday, Tuesday has been going down is actually very much within the predictions. This is something that I've used time and time again across the last year and a half to basically almost like a crystal ball kind of prediction on, you know, how the weekly profile tends to develop. And so yeah, so far so good. Monday has been, you know, giving us a little bit of a false move towards the downside. Now, just because we understand that though, doesn't mean that we're just going to start going long today because At the end of the day, the weekly bias is kind of like a concept that allows us to get a decent read on the overall direction of the weekly movement. It does not, however, tell us for a fact that the market is now moving in that direction. So what you need to understand is that there are 2 parts to, you know, 2 things that need to be fulfilled before you take any trade. The first of all is you have to have a decent idea as to, or at the very least, you need to have an idea about what the market's going to do. So for example, the weekly bias right there is my idea of what the market's going to do. But then Most people tend to just leave it at that, right? You have idea, okay, you see the price actually goes down. All right, let's just buy in. But that's not actually the best way to do it. If you've done this before, chances are you will have run into a situation before where you buy low, right? You think you're buying low and you think you're buying quite close to the bottom, and then price continues dipping. And you don't want to be catching falling knives, right? You don't want to be making preliminary decisions based on just incomplete criteria that have been met. Here comes the second part of the equation before you have any sort of trade setup, which is you need the market to actually show you that your idea is correct. Or at the very least, you want to see the market agreeing with your thesis. And the way that that's going to come, for me, the exact criteria that needs to be met for that to be true is if we get a bullish daily close. The system that I'm using right here only trades in the direction of the daily bias, which means if the previous candle closes bearish, I'm going to be looking for shorts. If the previous candle closes bullish, I'm going to be looking for longs. On the next day, so because we have a bearish candle closing from yesterday, we are not going to be looking for longs—at the very least, not from the perspective of the daily chart. So that leads me on to the lower time frame, right? We're starting things off on the higher time frame, and then we're going lower. Because if I start my analysis on the lower time frames, guess what? I'm going to be trading against the overall higher time frame direction a lot of the times, which is not ideal. So, so far, in terms of the one hourly chart, yes, we have gotten a bullish CSD. But given the fact that today is a bearish day. Bearish daily bias, we are not going to be placing a whole lot of weight behind this bullish CIST because chances are this could be said to be some sort of a manipulation wave, right, to take out all of these relatively equal highs, and then you're going to go for a V-shaped reversal to take out all of these relatively equal lows, which is probably going to be what I'm going to be looking for in terms of today. Now, as for the exact kind of like level that I'm going to be looking for, right now we're coming back into a fair value gap on the 1-hourly chart starting at $64,350-ish And as you come into that level, you're going to want to look for some sort of a break of structure or like a CSD on the 5-minute chart once you get into the New York session. Now, the reason why we have to look for this specifically in between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM is because oftentimes people only focus on the Y-axis of the chart. But remember, there are 2 axes on your chart. There's the Y-axis, which is price action, which is what we're currently looking at. And then there is the X-axis, which is time. And believe it or not, certain things happening at certain times will increase the success rate of, you know, whatever that move is by a lot or reduce it by a lot, just depending on what time it happens. Now, 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM is the New York kill zone. It is the opening hours of the New York market, which means that chances are your, whatever moves that happen around that time are going to be quite high probability. So anything that happens before kind of sets us up for whatever is gonna be happening on the New York session. Session. So far, on like we've already established that we have a bearish fair value gap over here, and we've established that this is well we're anticipating this to be a bit of a false move to head towards the downside. Then now we go into the five-minute chart, and we can see that the London session has actually swept out both the Asia lows and the Asia highs, which is now painting a slightly different picture in the sense where when we have a bearish now usually when the Asia lows have been taken out and price reverses sharply the other direction, this lets us know that this is potential manipulation. Right? Usually Asia is called the accumulation, and whatever happens next can be known as the manipulation. And usually once you get a manipulation of the lows and price actually heads towards the upside, you can say that this is distribution. And usually the New York session tends to continue the distribution move, right? Usually. Which is why like today has, you know, you remember earlier on in the video I said that today's trade is not going to be as straightforward as you think. Well, that's because of this, like what we're seeing right now. We have accumulation, manipulation, distribution, but it's against the overall direction of the daily bias and against the overall direction of the current 1-hourly order flow. So how do we navigate a situation like this? Well, we wait for clear confirmations. Remember what I pointed out earlier? Once we get into the fair value gap, we need to see a very aggressive, or at the very least, some sort of undeniable CSD that price is in fact going towards the downside. Remember, this is just my idea, but in order for this idea to turn into a valid trade setup, I need to wait for the market to give me some sort of confirmation. And that confirmation is going to come when you get this kind of move between hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. Now, when you do it this way, you tend to get Just a very clean, systematic, and also just some beautiful trades because you'll be in a trade and you're gonna be thinking like, whoa, this feels like magic. Like how the heck is everything playing out so cleanly? Well, guess what? When you align everything with price and time and overall understanding of what makes the market moves, that's kind of the result you end up with. And by the way, if you'd like our help to install or learn this exact system for yourself and achieve a decently high win rate for yourself, or at the very least, just make trading feel predictable and you are coming to the market every single day and you know exactly what you're looking for, click the first link in the description box below. We have had around 60 students join the program so far, and half of them are currently trading full-time, or at the very least, they're funded for at least $100,000, which is a pretty high success rate that no other program can claim to have. So all in all, it's just something that works. And if you're tired of working by yourself and you're not really understanding what you don't know or even what you're doing wrong and you just want to do it the right way, Like that program is gonna work wonders for you. But with that out of the way though, but just to go back into the trade though, there is still a possibility that today could be, you know, the day where, you know, we finally bottom and price actually, you know, just starts heading towards the upside. Even though this may be the case, I am still not going to be like trying to take advantage of a move towards the upside. And here's the philosophy behind this right now. In the event that the price action of today is trading against the direction of the daily bias, like it's okay to just let the move play out. Just like what happened with yesterday, right? I was pretty clear that Monday tends to be pretty low probability, at least overall, right? In terms of a— if I had to take 100 trades and if I were to take all of my trades on Monday and I compare the results to taking all of my trades on a news day that comes on Wednesday, for example, the chances of success are going to be quite drastic. So in essence, like Monday, regardless of, for example, yesterday played out very cleanly, but I did not take advantage of that. Is that a mistake? Well, not necessarily, because I know that Monday is statistically like a pretty terrible play, statistically speaking. And so we understand that with trading, the way we make money is by taking the higher statistical outcome or the higher likelihood outcome each and every single time compared to the lower probability outcome. So in that sense, what I did yesterday, it's not necessarily a mistake, right? It was part of the plan and I traded the plan, or in the case of my plan yesterday, it was a no trade. But coming back into the day, right, just to, you know, not go off on too big of a tangent, essentially, like just because price is going to be like, there is a possibility That price could just continue pumping. Does that mean I need to do anything about it? Absolutely not. Sometimes I can just let moves go past. At the end of the day, I am trying to catch the highest quality moves during the week. And knowing that, okay, Monday and Tuesday are going to be more of the setup days, and especially if today closes bullish, that's a really positive sign. And it just sets us up for tomorrow where, okay, tomorrow because we have a bullish daily bias, we have news as well. Like I'm just going to take advantage of some sort of retracement and I'm going to go in big on to try to catch a big move. And even if I don't catch the big move, yes. you know, tomorrow, I could try again on Thursday, and chances are I'm going to make some decent money on Wednesday and Thursday instead of trying to force, you know, a trade on every single trading day. Like, it's fine to just let some moves play out. So the reason why I mentioned this is because currently we have this bearish fair value gap, right? In the event that price just continues pumping, pumping, pumping, and especially if you get a 1-hourly candle close beneath— well, above the midpoint of the 1-hourly order block, which is going to be at $64,400, um, there is a decent likelihood that you're just going to pump the rest of the day. Now, if that happens, uh, I'm not going to stop you if you do want to take a trade, you know, yourself. Personally, I'm going to be avoiding it for the reasons that I've already mentioned. I'm going to only be looking for shorts. But if you do want to take a long, then yeah, all you have to do is to follow the momentum. Essentially, as price is pumping, you are going to form new order blocks. Like, for example, this— well, in this move right here is not exactly the best one because you formed a lot of new order blocks, but price didn't retrace back into them. But essentially, the way that you would navigate this is by the time you watch this video, If price is just continuing to move straight up, you have a bunch of order blocks over here. And it's as simple as every time you form a new order block, that's an opportunity for you to just take a momentum trade, right? At the start of the order block is your entry. You place your stop loss beneath the order block and you target for 2R, or you can go for higher if you want. But this is the playbook. It's known as momentum trading. And believe it or not, this is something that makes a lot of money. Like I've posted about this on my Twitter before, and I've said this time and time again, but momentum trading is something that feels kind of risky because you're kind of going into the middle of nowhere, right? It feels like you're going into the middle of nowhere, or at the very least, it feels like you're going into price when it's already, you know, after it's already pumped or it's, you know, quite high and it doesn't feel as safe as trying to quote unquote catch the bottom. But the reality is this is not only a very high probability strategy, it's a very high success rate. It's very high profitability as well. But it's also simple, right? It's super simple. I don't think you could come up with a strategy simpler than this, right? Price has already established that it's going in an uptrend. You simply take newly formed 5-minute order blocks and you place your entry there. You place your stop loss below and you take 2 You are super straightforward. And believe me, like if you've never tried this for yourself before, just try it out on backtesting mode, right? Pop up FX Replay. I'm gonna drop a discount code down below if you'd like to check it out. Like this is not sponsored by them or anything. It's just one of the only, you know, trading softwares that I would actually recommend, which is FX Replay. Yeah. All you have, like just go into backtesting mode, get into, you do 2 things, right? One is you establish that you are very clearly in some sort of a trend. For example, right now it's very bullish. And once you can understand, right, that's step one. Once you understand that you are now in a bullish or bearish trend, all you have to do, go down into the 5-minute timeframe and just trade these new order blocks. Believe it or not, like if you take 100 trades following this strict kind of like 2:1 risk to reward ratio and just taking newly formed 5-minute order blocks, you'll be surprised at the amount of money that you do make. But with that out of the way though, if I do get jumped into any trades, I'm definitely gonna be updating you guys on Twitter. So feel free to follow me there. But otherwise I'll see you guys tomorrow where chances are we're gonna get a banger of a day. But yeah, with that out of the way, ciao ciao.
