In this YouTube video, Xuan (the channel’s daily Bitcoin analyst) opens with a reminder about a $25,000 giveaway and then dives into his trading outlook for the day. He cites his personal track record—about a 78% win rate over 200+ trades in the past 1.5 years—to establish credibility. Xuan explains that the weekly bias remains bullish, but expects an early‑week downside move (Monday‑Tuesday) followed by an upside swing toward identified liquidity zones at $65,600 and $67,200. He contextualises these targets with the 14‑week average true range (ATR) of roughly $7,000, placing the week’s low around $61,300 and the potential high near $67,000. He reviews yesterday’s trade, noting that a V‑shaped recovery was anticipated but a bearish “CISD” (continuous institutional sell‑down) emerged, prompting him to stay out. Xuan stresses a selective‑trade philosophy, likening good setups to premium poker hands (pocket aces) and warning that mediocre setups erode profitability. For today’s trade, he highlights a bullish daily bias, a fair‑value gap (FV‑G) on the 1‑hour chart, and a key validation level at $63,300 (candle close above confirms a bullish order block). The opposite invalidation level is $63,060 (candle close below would signal a bearish order block). Timing is crucial: he expects the decisive move between 7 AM‑10 AM New York time (the “kill zone”), after an Asia‑low sweep and a London‑session push that often sets up a New York distribution. He explains how smart‑money manipulation can create false down‑moves before a bullish distribution, and stresses stacking confluences to achieve a high‑probability trade. Xuan reiterates the importance of following his rule‑based system for consistency, acknowledges that not every day will produce a trade, and invites viewers to follow his live updates on X. He ends with another giveaway reminder and a sign‑off.
Chapters
Right before we get into this, I just wanted to remind you that there is a giveaway right now where you have a chance to win $25,000 worth of prizes. If you're interested, click the first link in the description box below to enter the giveaway. But other than that, let's get into the video. What's good guys, welcome back to another one. The call from yesterday ended up being picture perfect. Unfortunately, I kind of got shaken out from it as well, and I'm going to break it down in this video. But with yesterday playing out exactly how, you know, we were expecting it to play out, it also means that today is a very straightforward day in terms of what we are looking for in terms of Bitcoin. So today's trade is going to be pretty straightforward. But just right before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been making these videos daily, and I've kept track of my success rate when it comes to these videos. And so far, I'm at around a 78% win rate across the last year and a half and across like 200+ trades. So the long story short is that if you're new here, you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more compared to when I'm wrong. Now, just to kick things off is the fact that in terms of the weekly bias, we are still bullish. Now, all that means is that so far this week, we are going to look for some sort of a downside move at the start of the week. So probably Monday or Tuesday, which We got yesterday. Then we want to look for an expansion towards the upside, ideally towards some sort of liquidity level. And we've already identified two from yesterday, and this is unchanged so far. The first one is at 65,600, and the other one is at 67,200. Now, do I think that this higher one is going to get hit this week? I cannot predict that. But after all, we can kind of do all of our analysis to align ourselves with the right direction as much as possible. But whether or not we will 100% hit this target, or if we will 100% do that, I. Like, nobody can guarantee that. At the end of the day, trading is also a probabilistic game, right? You can maximize your chances, but you can never quite guarantee that you will always get the result that you're looking for. But either way, this— both of these liquidity levels at the very least serves as a very clear indicator of direction and also what we can expect for this week. Now, I do expect though, at the very least, this lower one to get hit during this weekly bias move. And also, if any of the past weeks has been any sort of indication for us, Like if we just take a look at the average ATR, the average weekly candle, we can see that so far we're hovering at around $7,000. So just purely based off of volatility here, the low of the week so far is at $61,300 and the high of the week that we are potentially looking for is $67,000. So this falls well within the range of that $7,000 ATR value, which ATR, by the way, if you don't really understand what that means, it's just the average volatility that we've had over the last 14 weekly candles on Bitcoin. It basically gives you the average, like, okay, On average, as 14 weekly candles, you have moved from the low to the high of the candle, you've moved around $7,000. So considering that this may potentially be the low, this may potentially be the high, this is well within that $7,000 average weekly volatility. So that is a good sign. Now, with the weekly bias out of the way though, what happened yesterday is kind of what we called for as well. If you guys recall, we were mentioning that, okay, we've got a couple of relatively equal lows over here and we do expect it to get swept. And the setup that we were looking for yesterday is that as we approach news, we wanted to see some sort of a V-shaped recovery, which ended up getting, but for some reason, like, I think I ended up getting shaken out of this, probably because like we ended up getting the CISD towards the downside. And again, that was valid. It's not to say that I was wrong and I suck as a trader or whatever, but like I had my reasons to, for example, when we ended up getting the CISDs, I had my reasons to stay out of the markets because based on the system, yes, just because I am expecting a V-shaped recovery, the fact that you have a bearish CISD means that it can be a little bit risky. And I at the very least believe that the best way to make money in trading with the least amount of headache and the highest amount of consistency as well is to not take a bunch of different trades, but rather just being really selective with the trades that you do take. We're trying to basically stack the deck in our favor. If you ended up getting like, you know, a 2 of hearts and I don't know, like 4 of spades or whatever, that's objectively a worse hand statistically speaking than if you were to be able to only play, I don't know, pocket queens or pocket kings or pocket aces. Like if you get those types of hands, regardless of how you might be feeling, you're always going playing those cards. But if you have, in yesterday's case, rather, the hand that we were dealt with was a little less ideal. Like, it's not completely unplayable, but it's also not like pocket aces. And one of the biggest lessons that I've learned over time, especially having been trading for like, I don't know, 6 years, 7 years at this point, is that consistently my data always shows me that whenever I try to just kind of settle for trades that kind of look good but not, you know, they're not great, they oftentimes just lose me money. Whereas if I could just exclusively focus on playing only the good hands and only taking the A+ setups, like Data shows it. I am way more profitable and it's not even close. So with that said, it's not to say that yesterday was completely invalid. It's not to say that, you know, I was wrong or whatever. It's just this, this right here was an invalidation criteria that when I saw, I was like, yep, you know what? This is not for me. It could work out, but it could also not. And for me, that risk wasn't worth it. So personal preference, or you could also chalk it up to the system that I'm using right now. Either way, one thing's for sure, this kind of methodology has allowed us to prevent a lot of losses and to also maintain a relatively high win rate. So again, optimal I'm optimizing for different things. I'm not looking to be overly aggressive on every single opportunity. You may be different and you may have actually gotten a win from yesterday, which if you did as a result of watching the video and the analysis that I did yesterday, which by the way, this was all within expectations. If you did, drop a comment down below. It truly does warm my heart when I do see comments and people just kind of tagging me like, hey man, made money thanks to you. It just goes to show that so often when I make these videos, I'm not interacting with you guys per se. Like I'm staring into a camera lens right now. It always helps to, you know, just get a bit of interaction. It's also the reason why I read every single comment that you guys leave down below. Finalize one thing on the setup from yesterday. Just keep in mind that yesterday we were predicting that you know anytime we went below the daily open of yesterday, which was also the weekly open, this was actually an opportunity for us to buy low and then potentially ride a wave towards the upside. And so far that condition has already been fulfilled. Again, if that if I sound like I am being a prophet right now, it's not like the concept that I've been using to kind of accurately predict. Okay, Monday, Tuesday down and Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Like if you've seen that more than a few times, which I have done quite a few times over the last year and a half, it's not magic. It's just a very simple concept, which by the way, if you'd like to learn my full system that has gotten like a 75% win rate over the last 200 trades or so, then feel free to click the second link in the description box below where we're going to work with you one-on-one in order to install this exact trading system so that you can start making consistent trading profits basically consistently. But if that's not for you, no pressure though. Let's just get back into the video. And essentially right now we are still looking at a bullish daily bias. The weekly kind of like setup is already kind of in play right now. And so today we are going to be looking for a very similar kind of setup. Price has gotten a bullish AIST. We are having a bullish daily bias. We're having a bullish weekly bias. The low of the week is most likely already in. And right now you're coming back into a big fair value gap, which is an imbalance in the market. And you have so far tapped the 50% line of the fair value gap. And so the only condition that we are looking for moving forward is a little candle close above $63,300. Once you get that candle close above, This will validate this as a potential bullish order block, and you're going to be just trading from that point onwards. Now, in terms of timing, the timing that you're going to want to look for is going to be a little bit more— how do we put this— a little bit more ambiguous in the sense where we don't really have news today. Although in terms of the setup, there is something that could allow today to be a high probability setup. But in terms of timing, right, we don't have any catalysts. It's just in general, you want to look for this to happen sometime between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM New York, which is also just the New York kill zone. And one of the interesting things to note is that this is the Asia low. During the London session, or rather right before the London session, you actually swept out the Asia lows. Now, for those of you that might not be familiar with what I just explained, essentially, if you are bullish for the day, you actually would love to see the Asia low getting taken out. And that's because most days tend to follow a very similar playbook. In fact, we've taken advantage of it quite a few times throughout, you know, just the last year and a half, which basically you have Asia, which kind of sets the tone for the week. And if you happen to get London sweeping below the Asia lows, then you could potentially set up for a New York distribution. Now, obviously this would be for a daily bias type of day where you sweep the HLOs. And this is the manipulation, right? It's to trick people into thinking that, oh, the market's actually going down. But in reality, it's just to, you know, allow the smart money to get into a better entry. And then later on, they're going to distribute it towards the upside. This is a very common playbook that happens time and time and time again. So at the very least, this also kind of adds, you know, a confluence, which if you remember what we said earlier, trading is a lot about just stacking the deck in our favor. It's really just about like stacking confluences until You realize like, hey, you know, I've got an undeniably quality trade here. And when you get that, you simply, you know, take it without hesitation. But with that out of the way though, let's just, you know, kind of verify this on the 5-minute. So yeah, and when you get that CSD, this is going to be all good. Now obviously there's going to be one invalidation scenario when it comes to this, which is the fact that you do not want to see a candle close beneath this level right here at $63,060. Because once that happens, you are looking at a potential bearish order block. Now this has 2 problems. One, Remember what I taught you about this fair value gap over here? A fair value gap on the 1-hourly chart, when you have a bullish daily bias, is it kind of implies that, okay, we're expecting this fair value gap to hold and we're expecting price to actually bounce out from this fair value gap towards the upside. The thing that happens when you continue to form bearish order blocks and you continue to fail to give any sort of a bounce, or more accurately, or like just a more objective kind of statement, that the longer you fail to give yourself a change in order flow is kind of like telling you Maybe this fair value gap isn't as strong as you initially thought, because after all, we're just making a guess here based on concepts that we have seen work time and time again. This does not tell us that, okay, 100% guaranteed it is going to go up. It just kind of maximizes our chances based on what we've observed from the past. So if we get a candle close towards the downside, and by the time you watch this video, and especially when we approach that New York kill zone, you see price just start making lower lows and lower highs and bearish order flow on the 5-minute, and you get this candle close. Clearly, it means that our entire thesis that we discussed throughout this video is invalid. Now, does that mean that I am a bad analyst or whatever? No, it just means that we're kind of like stacking the deck here and we're planning out exactly what we want to see. Now, when the market doesn't give us what we want to see, it doesn't mean that we get angry. It doesn't mean that, oh, we suck. It simply means that the market maybe does not agree with our thesis. And thesis aside, I'm not even like giving you my opinion here. I'm just, you know, showing you how I would trade this based on my system. So in a way, I'm just following rules. Following rules is exactly the thing that got me to such a high level of consistency over the last year and a half or so. So I'm going to continue to trust it and just, you know, execute. Not every day has to be a trading day, and that's also perfectly fine. With that out of the way though, if I do get into any trades for today, I'm definitely going to be keeping you guys updated on X. So just feel free to follow me there. And again, lastly, just a reminder that we have a giveaway going on right now. You have about 3 days left to submit an entry, and after that, like, yeah, good luck. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao!
