the bitcoin trade today is OBVIOUS (take this!)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today is the first news day of the week and you know what that means. Chances are we're going to have a pretty high probability day on our hands. So I'm going to break down exactly the trade that I'm going to be looking for in terms of Bitcoin. But just right before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making here on YouTube for the last year and a half or so. And I'm at about a 75% win rate. So I basically tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. And yesterday was a very good example to prove that. If you guys watched the video from yesterday, wow, like I could not have called this better. Essentially, like We were looking at a bearish order flow. I told you guys to disregard this bullish CSD. Price came into this fair value gap right here, and exactly between the hours of 7 AM to 9 AM, that is when we got a fair value gap tap followed by a change in state of delivery on the 5-minute, and off you go towards the downside. Basically said that, you know, this move towards the upside was going to be manipulation, and you're going to want to look for a drop between the hours of 7 to 9 at exactly this level. And this is just something that happens once you get a good understanding of how, you know, smart money trading works. And if you'd like my help to install this system for you in your own trading so that you can start being consistent and you can just start making a decent living from trading instead of wasting your time and effort and just going through a lot of frustration, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below, book a call. This is something where we're going to be working with you basically one-on-one every single step of the way. So like, it's not just like, hey, we hand you a course and go figure it out. If that was the case, like, you'd be profitable on YouTube already because, you know, there's no shortage of information out here. Now what's really going to separate The type of results that you do get is help in terms of execution. Oftentimes we know exactly what to do, but when it comes down to it, we're not able to do it. And that's something that we help with. But either way, I'm going to stop talking about myself. But yeah, yesterday was a big masterclass in terms of how do you use a fair value gap in the context of the higher time frame bias. Well, today I think we're going to be looking at a very similar story in a sense where, all right, because yesterday's candle closed overall bearish, like if you take a look at the daily chart right here, we have a bearish daily bias. Well, Guess what? We're going to be looking for shorts today. And when we're looking for shorts today, we have a very similar story to yesterday where, okay, we have a bearish daily bias. Price is coming into an hourly bearish PD array. A fair value gap is a PD array, and order block is also a PD array. Now, when you come back into this PD array on the 1-hourly chart, you're going to look for some sort of a liquidity sweep. Yesterday, we swept out these relatively equal highs. Today, chances are we're going to sweep out this one. In fact, probably before the end of this video, like This level is going to get taken out. Once it does, the other thing to keep in mind is that you're currently— well, speak of the devil, it just happened. So right now you're coming into this fair value gap. But either way, right, this entire block right here from, let's see here, $63,850 all the way up to $64,350 is a bearish order block, which means the playbook is going to be relatively simple where we're just going to be looking for exactly what we saw yesterday. Price has now came into the level. Once you start getting a bearish CSD on the 5-minute chart and ideally even on the 1-hourly chart, because like you have news later, which I'm going to get into But either way, you're just going to be looking for the exact same thing. Now, the other thing to keep in mind as well is the fact that currently you've just swept above the Asia highs. And if you guys have followed this channel, or if you've watched a couple of these videos before, you understand that absolute most textbook A+ setup for the system that I'm using right now is a sweep above the Asia highs on a day where you have a bearish daily bias. Now, obviously, if we have a bullish daily bias, we'd be looking for a sweep below the Asia lows. But right now, sweep above the Asia highs on a day where you have a bearish bias means that this chances are is the manipulation move, right? Essentially, it's the market makers tricking everyone into thinking that, oh yeah, we're bullish, yeah, we're pumping, blah blah blah, and people are going to start going long here before when the New York session comes later, like, we're going to get distribution the other direction. So essentially, this is just a manipulation, and we're going to be focusing more so on the distribution. Now, the 5-minute CISD is going to come either, you know, either one of these levels depending on what time you're watching this. But the reason why I mentioned earlier that we would like to see a 1-hourly bearish CICD, which basically just means a 1-hourly bearish candle close beneath $63,700. So because of the fact that we have news today, in fact, we have 3 pieces of news, 4 pieces of news actually, all coming at around 8:30 AM. Now, that also means that just like how I managed to kind of predict the timing of the move from yesterday to the exact kind of like 2-3 hour window, we're going to be able to do the same today again. Because we have news at 8:30 AM, it also means that the ideal trading window for today, or at the very least, um, the window of time where we're most likely to get the highest probability move on this system particularly, is going to be the hour before news to the hour after news. So seeing as how news is 8:30 AM, the ideal time for, you know, this kind of 5-minute CIC or the hourly CIC to happen would probably be like between 7:30 to 8:30. And then after 8:30 is when the The move, if you get all the confirmations, then yeah, it's just going to be jumping into the move for some sort of continuation towards the downside. And obviously $63,200 here would be a very, very easy target. It's just the previous daily low. But if we want to direct our eyes, you know, a little bit further, we also have further targets at $62,250. Now, is this likely to get hit? Well, I think that depends a lot on daily volatility. For example, right now, the average daily volatility, which basically means like the high to the low of each daily candle, Is around $1,400. Now, if we take into account that weekends are usually quite dead and we remove weekends from the equation, I think we can still reasonably say like, okay, you know, $1,500 worth of daily volatility. And with that in mind, is a target all the way down at $62,250 realistic or is it a bit of a pipe dream? Well, so far the high of the day is looking to be coming at around $64,000. With $1,500 worth of daily volatility, This is in fact a decent target, right? It's not like it's a realistic target. So yeah, the first TP is probably going to be this one. And if the market moves aggressively, then yeah, the second TP is going to be at 62,230. But either way, just because that is going to be the kind of setup that we're looking for doesn't mean that, you know, 100% like, okay, I'm just going to start going short here, right? Again, the confirmations matter a lot. It's not like I give you the idea and then, you know, that's it. Because at the end of the day, you got to understand that behind every trade setup, there are 2 things that need to be present. The first of all is of course like your idea about the market. Like, what do you think is likely to happen? But at the end of the day, you've got to realize that that's just your opinion. That doesn't mean that the market has already agreed with your opinion. Then here comes the second part of the equation. You also need the market to show you signs that it agrees with your idea of, you know, what should happen. For example, our idea is that something like this should happen. Well, guess what? You need the market to come to here before you can jump in, because before that, you're just kind of preemptively thinking that, okay, your opinion is just going to come through, and that's how you end up Getting into like really, or that's just how you end up losing a lot of money because like, yeah, you can't trade your opinion. You've got to trade what the market's telling you. Right now, price is still heading towards the upside. And like, this isn't the time to also mention the invalidation scenario because at the end of the day, like what if we don't get the confirmations needed for this trade setup to come true? Oh, that is going to come when you get a candle close above. Well, you probably don't even need to see a candle close above $64,350. But that would be the level. Essentially, if you get a 1-hourly candle close by the time you watch this video, like if price is already at this point, then yeah, guess what? The short is going to be out of the window. In that case, you might be asking, okay, if the short is out of the window, does that mean that we go long? Well, no, at the very least, not if you're trading my system here. If you ask why, well, the answer is quite simple. We trade in the direction of the daily bias, which means that when the daily and the hourly and the 5-minute are all pointing in the same direction, that is the time when I take a trade, or at the very least, that's the time when I am willing to risk a proper amount on a trade. This is a concept known as timeframe alignment. It's basically making sure that whatever direction that you're trading in, it's in the direction of the overall trend, right? At the end of the day, you've gotta realize the trend is your friend. There is a reason why this phrase is circulated so much in the trading industry. It's because it's true, right? The trend is truly your friend. It's oftentimes when you go countertrend, that's when you start getting a lower win rate. And even on the ones where you do win, like it is, it is really hard fought, right? It's never like easy trades and it's never trades that just boom, go straight to your TP. It's usually You know, a lot of choppy price action and like, yeah, it's a very frustrating experience overall. If you have been, you know, kind of experiencing that, you know, something that'll help is to only take trades that have timeframe alignment. Basically, your higher timeframe and the lower timeframe are both, you know, pointing in the same direction. So why do I mention that? Now that leads me on to my other point, which is like, even if like, let's say we finally get that kind of bullish CSD or whatever, it will be against the direction of the daily bias. So for me, that's just like, yeah, I'm fine just letting the move go. Just because the market is moving doesn't mean you have to trade it. Like if that was the case, like you'd be honestly burning yourself out from both ends trying to catch every single move in the markets. But the truth is, like with 1 or 2 moves a day, heck, if you have 2 decent high-quality moves a week and you risk a proper amount of capital behind those trades, you can easily get to $10,000 a month. I've seen it happen with my students. I've seen it happen with myself. It's just, you know, when people say, yeah, if you want to get better at trading, you need to do less, not do more, or less is more. Like it's genuinely true. Oftentimes we struggle with that because we don't exactly know, like, okay, yeah, less is more. All right, how do I, you know, how do I actually use that knowledge? Well, it's actually quite simple. It's you go for less trades, but you make sure that, you know, by virtue of aiming for only the trades that meet all of your criteria, you are going to take less trades. And by virtue, like just by nature of going for the higher quality trades means that you're going to have a lot more confidence as to like, okay, because I know all of my conditions are met here, this is a much higher quality trade, I'm going to be much more willing to actually risk better, like higher amounts of capital on these trades. Guess what's going to happen as a nature of that? You're going to be trading less and you're going to be making more money because you're going to have a higher win rate overall because you're taking higher quality trades. Because they're higher quality trades, you're going to be risking more money, so you're going to be making more money while doing less. I definitely could have said that in much less words, but you get the idea. Anyways, so yeah, if, if we happen to get the invalidation scenario, it's perfectly fine to just wait till tomorrow, right? By the time tomorrow comes, we're going to get a bullish daily bias, right? We're going to get Bullish daily close. Chances are if you actually come to this point here, this is an undeniable bullish hourly CSD. And if that happens, guess what? Tomorrow is going to be as simple as taking a retracement back into this level and off you go back towards the upside. So yeah, you don't have to trade every day and you can still make some really good money. But anyway, it's just a quick heads up. Later, if you don't see me post anything on Twitter, just understand that I have a live trading call with my, you know, with the students inside my program. We've been on an absolute heater the last few weeks, like I've been winning like 2 to 3 trades every single call, and hopefully today I'm going to do it again. But with that out of the way though, I'm going to see you guys later or in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao!