The Next 2 Days Will Decide If This Bull Run Continues or ENDS, Don't Miss This

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday's call ended up like just going all over the place and it didn't really, you know, just match up to the call that I gave. And that's perfectly fine. I'm going to take the L. So that puts us at 93 out of the last 117 calls that we've made on YouTube. Now, something that is interesting about yesterday though, is that even though I was wrong, I still ended up making money from it. And I'm going to dedicate like a couple of extra minutes. At the start here, just to break down yesterday. Even if you're not interested in the overall like trade breakdown of how I made money, I'd still encourage you to just stay and listen for a bit because this teaches you like this next thing that I'm going to talk about is going to teach you a lot about how to trade late news days. So for example, yesterday the news actually happened at 2 PM. Yesterday was FOMC meeting minutes. If you take a look here, that was 2 PM, right? FOMC meeting minutes. And throughout Twitter, Which, by the way, guys, I had a lot of comments down below asking like what happens when like the scenario that I mapped out— this was the scenario that I mapped out— this didn't get hit, whereby you actually just started going lower instead, i.e., scenario number 2 that I posted on Twitter. If you haven't followed me on Twitter yet, like this is where I make the updates. And for those of you who are thinking like, oh, you know, why didn't I just talk about this in the video? Like I'm making the video usually like 4 to 5 hours before these moves actually happen. There's a difference between a trade breakdown and a trade call, and I'm trying to kind of like prepare you for what is about to happen in the future. There are going to be things that I'm not able to predict. For example, price at the time was looking like it was making a beeline towards this fair value gap. What ended up happening is that you got a change in set delivery and then you dumped all the way up here, and then you pumped back into the fair value gap, and then you got that slight rejection, which is where I made money. But then overall, the rest of the day, you just started going up. In fact, I wouldn't even say you started going up. Like, it's just been chopping around, really. Follow me on Twitter if you haven't already. But the main thing that I'm going to want to talk about is that on late Newsdays, you tend to have a second manipulation late in the morning. There's never a need to rush on 2 PM Newsdays. This is what I mean. Early in the morning, you got a manipulation below the Asia low, right? And a lot of people started to look for, you know, just this CSD or whatever to start jumping into the trade. Problem is, you would have got stopped out. Why? Because taking this trade means that you would be trading right into these relatively equal highs. This was also posted on Twitter. If you take a look here, like, this would have been the idea, but then the problem is you have relatively equal highs, just like what I drew there. And so what ended up happening was that you got an initial manipulation, but then a second manipulation late in the morning, right at 11:00 AM. Now, this is very normal on FOMC days where the news drops at 2:00 PM. First of all, London tends to be just very choppy, It's kind of like an extended accumulation. And then you will actually get manipulation during the New York morning, right? During the New York AM kill zone, which is exactly what you got there. But then you're also going to get a second manipulation, or it's like kind of like a— it's just an extended kind of day whenever you get 2 PM news. And what ended up happening yesterday is you formed relatively equal highs prior to 2 PM. 2 PM, you sweep out those relatively equal highs, and then boom, that would have been the 2R opportunity. That is where I make my money. Although full disclosure, I actually did not wait for 5-minute CISD. I was just super confident about Move. I've seen it happen time and time again. I entered like somewhere in the middle, placed my stop above this candle—not even the swing high, by the way—and I just literally target to R. I remember closing my trade somewhere around here. Like, I don't have the exact entry. I wish I could pull it up actually, but like for some reason the there's just absolutely zero like notifications. It's a weird day today for TradingView. But yeah, like this this this amount doesn't just magically come into the account. By random, you know, it was, it was a one trade. But like, anyways, going back to what I was talking about before, rule number 1 is try not to— like, if you see some kind of level right here and you have a late news day and you see relatively equal highs prior to a level that hasn't been filled yet, then relax, like, take it easy. Because if you try to jump in too early, you're going to get swept out a second time before some, like, that true move kind of happens. And so yesterday was not the highest quality day, contrary to what I would have expected, because It was FOMC, it was a news day, and things seemed to be setting up quite beautifully. Turns out yesterday was really just some kind of a choppy day where you form a range here and then you form a range here, and price was really just like sweeping out the ranges and then sweeping out the ranges and not much, you know, just clear trending movement. But just remember, when you get FOMC 2 PM news day, like, remember that the morning, if you do not get the move that is described and it clearly looks like price is setting up like multiple relatively equal highs here, then Relax, wait for those to get swept, wait for these levels to get filled. Like oftentimes we are able to get a good grasp on what's happening on the higher timeframe. For example, oh yeah, you know, this higher timeframe level is so obvious. Of course price would fill this level. But then when lower timeframe stuff happens, you know, we completely lose track of our initial higher timeframe analysis and we start getting caught up in the noise. The way you prevent that is just patience. You know that news is gonna come at 2:00 PM and you know that there is going to be some kind of volatility around 2:00 PM. And that's exactly what, you know, happened over there. Now, I'm going to call like the overall analysis an L because of the few things that I didn't manage to consider. For example, what if price actually breaks down here? What do we do? But this is a clear example of waiting for just that one setup. And mind you, I had been waiting starting at like 9 AM. I was waiting all the way until like 2 PM basically before I entered my trade, and then it was closed within the next half an hour. But from 9 AM to 2 AM just sitting there doing nothing. That's the reality of trading, and especially how much you need to wait for like a news move to happen. As long as you keep getting relative equal highs, as long as price still seems to be setting up and you do not get your clear conditions, but then once the setups and once the triggers are all met, you jump in. Boom, right? And again, I'm not targeting like some wild numbers here. Every single trade that I ever caught, like every single analysis that I ever mentioned on this channel, It's meant to just be a 2R trade. It's not meant to be more. You can go for more, but 2R, as long as that is hit, that is considered a win. Because truthfully, you don't really need more than that. I'm gonna use one of my like favorite sayings. This comes from the head coach at AOC within bootcamp. He says that, you know, everyone can make an absolute killer, like killer of a living by just going for like 3R a week. The problem that holds us back from that is that as humans, we want everything. We want more. If we can get 10R, we aim for 10R. And in that process of getting to 10R, that's when we start taking on a lot of suboptimal trades, and then we lose a lot more money, and then we end up not even having 2R to show for it. But the reality is a couple of 2R trades a week, that's honestly all you need to make a really good living from trading. Picture for a moment that you had a $100K funding account. Every percentage that you— every trade that you take, you risk 1%. So that's $1K. You get 2R back, that's $4K. Assuming you lose half of your trades, this still equates to just about Like four to five trades a week with a forty to fifty percent win rate, you could be making like a twenty k per month income with just one one hundred k funded account, which is not much. It only costs a few hundred dollars to get that one hundred k account, and like yeah, guys, you see what I mean. But anyways, this trade breakdown ended up taking much longer than I expected. But I guess now it's time to jump into the actual trade for today. So kicking this off at the higher time frame on the daily chart, we have this is a photo gap. Uh, kind of. Well, we kind of filled in the daily fair value gap, but the daily bias is bullish. Problem is, if we start pumping from this point onwards, we're going to get relatively equal lows, which means at some point you're going to return back to this level. So is today going to be an update or is it going to be a down day? I have no clue, but we can go into the lower timeframes and see for ourselves. But at the very least, based on the daily close, we're supposed to be looking for longs today. But based on overall market structure, I think we should be looking for shorts. Right? So we're getting a bit of a conflicting kind of like signal here. Down to the 1-hourly chart, after filling in that fair value gap, right now you are technically in— well, starting to get some kind of bullish order flow in the sense that this is your bullish order block right here. Price seems to be trading into this bullish order block. The problem is, again, like even on the 1-hourly chart, you can see that the order flow is very much bearish. And in fact, not only do you have this bearish fair value gap over here, but you also have this bearish order block over here that price seems to have filled. And so At the moment, like, until I would say until this level gets broken through, I wouldn't necessarily be looking for longs because you are literally trading into some kind of bearish resistance at the moment. Even though this has already started to happen, you want to wait for just confirmed, just kind of like a reversal on the 1-hour. And this is also taking into account the fact that on the daily chart, on the 1-hourly chart, everything is looking bearish at the moment. And until this changes, yeah, we're going to try to avoid going long, which then puts us at quite a bit of a dilemma because the 1-hourly— sorry, The daily chart is pointing towards the upside. It is not pointing towards the downside. Okay, but hopefully once we start going into an even lower timeframe on the 5-minute chart, maybe this kind of paints a different picture for us. So what we can see on the 5-minute timeframe is that this is the Asia session. London has been trading below the Asia session, which could potentially set us up for some kind of an AMD session profile day where New York actually pumps towards the upside. But the problem with this is that again, we're going to be trading, you know, counter to the overall higher timeframe order flow. So What I would be leaning towards is actually for price to actually go short. The problem with that also is the fact that the daily chart is pointing towards the upside, at least for the moment. And so we're actually going to be counter-trend trading. Now, even though that is the case though, today we have news. I think most of these setups are present. And because of that, we are still able to take trades today towards the short direction. We just need to go half risk because we don't have timeframe alignment at the moment. So let me paint a picture of how we trade today. Right now, you're forming relatively equal highs during the London session right here. What I would look for is for, like, in between now— like, I'm recording this video at 5:00 AM— in between 5:00 to 7:00, you're going to want to look for some kind of a sweep above these highs and then for price to start breaking lower again. Once you see that, this is going to be your new strong high. A strong high is a high that sweeps liquidity, right? So I want you to picture for a moment that a lot of people are having their stop losses set above this level right now. Maybe there are just a lot of retail traders that are, you know, impatient as they usually are, and they start jumping into the markets right here, and then they go short, let's say, and everyone's placing their stop loss above here. This means that if price were to get to this level, a lot of people are going to be stopped out. And that also means if they get stopped out, imagine if you're going short, it means you're going to be having a market buy over here. You have also another party of breakout traders that once this level, you know, gets taken out, they're going to be buying the breakout. And so you're getting a lot of parties that are interested in buying high at this level. And so What happens is that, you know, we sell to them and then we buy back lower, right? Because right now, in terms of the overall order flow, as well as even just the 5-minute, you have a couple of relatively equal lows there. You have a low there. And of course, on the daily chart, you have a very big low, like right here, right? These are relatively equal lows. Now, I'm not saying that this target right here at $111,900 is going to get hit today, but the setup for today is going to be towards the short side. Besides that, I think you're also starting to already break towards the downside in the sense that this could potentially become your order block. But even if this doesn't hold as a bearish order block, you already have this as a potential order block. So CSD technically can be confirmed already. So something like this is going to be the setup for today. Again, there are going to be a couple of things that I may not be able to predict, especially on these videos, considering the fact that I am recording these so early. So make sure you follow me on my Twitter. Like, I don't say this to, you know, foreign followers or whatever. Like, truthfully, whenever I do any updates, that I cannot otherwise cover in the videos, I'm posting on Twitter. Okay, but anyways, enough about like Twitter. We have to get into news for a bit. We need to understand what time the news, like what time the move is likely to happen. And for today, it's going to be around 8:30 AM and 9:45 AM, right? These are the 2 USD red news, which means we can reasonably expect the true move to begin the hour before 8:00 AM until the hour after 9:45, right? So in between the hours of 7:30 To let's say 10:30 AM, that is when we're going to expect this kind of like down move to begin and the down move to end. And you're going to want to look for that manipulation into some kind of higher timeframe resistance to sweep out liquidity, whatever. You're going to want to look for that manipulation sometime before 7:30 or at least around 8:00 AM so that once 8:30 AM happens and you start getting that change in state of delivery, boom, right? You're going to go towards the downside. Easy peasy. Now, of course, this could completely get flipped on its side because like you are starting to get a very beginning glimpses of a potential bullish reversal. Again, very early glimpses and potential. Right here is a potential bullish order block, and if you start breaking towards the upside, again, the invalidation scenario for this is going to be super simple. In fact, for the context of today, you may not even need to wait until price breaks above this block here at 115,500. Even if price were to get a 1-hourly close above this 1-hourly bearish order block right here at 114,700, you could potentially already flip this bearish order block into some kind of bullish, like kind of like a breaker block, or like just flipping support— sorry, flipping resistance into support. And you can dive right into a trade at around there. Again, whatever happens, I will be posting updates on Twitter. And if I do take any trades, for example, even though I was still wrong, I had a clear idea of what I was looking for. And when it happened, I just pulled the trigger. Granted, I did have to stay until like— stay up till like 2:30 AM in order to catch that trade, which didn't yield much. But still, like, hopefully today is going to be a higher quality trading day. And don't forget, tomorrow we actually have the, probably the biggest piece of news for this entire week, the Jackson Hole Symposium. In fact, today is already the start of Jackson Hole Symposium. It starts today and it ends on the 23rd. And you have, of course, the— this is going to be the main event, right? Federal Chair Powell speaks tomorrow. That's going to be a very key news event. And just so you can understand this more, I have had AI just do a deep dive into what all of this is. Essentially, this is just kind of like a yearly event where all of the central bankers just gather together, and the main highlight event is going to be the Federal Chairman's speech. The only thing you need to understand is that so far there is a pretty high chance, right, 84%, that in September we're going to get an interest rate cut. This is very bullish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, NASDAQ, S&P, whatever, right? Anything that has to do with investments and getting money out of the markets, like a rate cut, is very positive for you know, assets like Bitcoin and NASDAQ and whatever. So this is of course not 100%, but whatever he talks about tomorrow, now if he is going to be dovish, this is super positive news and you could reasonably expect the rest of this month heading into mid of September to be bullish, right? Tomorrow's gonna kickstart that. But if he's hawkish, meaning like, okay, maybe September we're not gonna, we have to still think about it, like do we wanna cut interest rates or whatever, that's gonna be very bearish for risk-on assets. It means that we're gonna go through another month of like just distribution or like just ranging. Just to paint a picture of what I mean right here, every single new high that we formed on Bitcoin, for example, over here, in fact, it's better to show you on the monthly chart. Like every single new high that we form on Bitcoin, you go through a few months of retracement. At least this has been the theme for this entire bull market so far. Once you take out the previous all-time high right here, you went through 6 months of just retracement/distribution. And then boom, you take out new all-time high again with this move right here. And then 1, 2, 3, 4, 4 months of just distribution/ranging. At the moment, we have just taken out another all-time high and price seems to be, you know, kind of slowing down. When you go into the weekly chart, this is going to be evident where price is kind of slowing down at the moment, where for the past 6 weeks we have just been retracing. Now granted, until this low here is taken out at like $98,000, you are still very much bullish. And it would be stupid to say that the altcoin, like the alt season, or like the crypto bull run is over. Like, the reality is until this low is taken out, nothing's confirmed. And even if this is taken out, as long as you don't close below it, this could just be a liquidity sweep that follows another, you know, like kind of like a range high. Like basically you can just kind of form a range here, sweep out the range low, boom, target the range high, and then market can do whatever it wants to do. But the key here is that we're at a very critical point in the markets at the moment. Whatever like Chairman Powell decides to do tomorrow as well as next month, like, and when I say whatever he's going to do, it means like whether he cuts the interest rates or not is going to be heavily deciding the fate of the crypto markets for the upcoming months. If there is rate cuts, great. Altseason continues, bull run continues. If there isn't, then we're going to just continue to chop around for a bit before, you know, before maybe October he might decide to cut the rates and then things can start moving again. But the key here is that like for most of the other major economies out there, like the GBP, not the GBP, but like the Aussie dollar, New Zealand, Canadian, Euro, they've already kind of like cut rates. Like just to give you an idea, it was not too long ago that the Canadian dollar, the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar, Like everything was very close to the US dollar, right? There was, it was not too long ago where everything was very close to like 4% rates, and that has since changed, right? Taking a look at this, Canadian has cut rates twice already this year. Aussie dollar has cut rates 3 times already. New Zealand dollar, yep. Euro, yep. And the GBP, yep. USD is the only one that hasn't cut rates yet, and this will eventually happen because of how the world economy is kind of like going. So it's only a matter of time. And until that happens, chill. Play it safe, play cautiously, because things are just gonna continue chopping around like this. And if you've watched until this point in the video so far, and if you would like my help to help prepare you for what's about to come so that you can take full advantage of alt season and just make money before this all ends and we go into another like 2, 3 year bear market, then click the first link in the description box below. I'm gonna coach you one-on-one to get you from where you are to fully trade market ready within the next 60 days. If that sounds interesting to you, book a call for bootcamp. Otherwise, see you guys tomorrow. Bye-bye.