the ONLY trade possible on Bitcoin today (watch for this)
In this video Roman Ceccardi walks viewers through his daily Bitcoin trading plan, focusing on why Mondays are typically choppy and how to exploit that with a structured, evidence‑based approach. He starts by outlining a bullish weekly bias (the "power of three" expansion) contrasted with a bearish daily bias caused by the previous day's candle. He explains key smart‑money concepts—order blocks, liquidity sweeps, CSD (bullish continuation), CIST (liquidity sweep), and CIC (counter‑trend impulse) — and uses them to define a single high‑probability short trade for the day. The trade hinges on a liquidity sweep above the 86,100 level followed by a 5‑minute CIC downwards, with an invalidation point at 86,400 (the top of the bearish order block). Timing is crucial: he recommends trading between 7 AM and 10 AM, watching the 9:30 AM New York open for potential sharp moves. He stresses the need for market‑price evidence before acting on a thesis, describing a two‑step validation process (idea → confirmation). The video also promotes his paid mentorship program, citing a 70 % win rate, 45 students, and many funded accounts over $100k, positioning the free content as a 20 % preview of the full system.
Chapters
What is good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Don't know about you guys, but I'm sure as heck really happy that I managed to stay out of yesterday. And this is exactly what I've been telling you guys about Mondays, especially on Mondays that have absolutely no news. You just get like really choppy price action throughout the entirety of the kill zones. Like, we always have a solid reason to believe that, you know, things could move well. Because even though I've been publicly documenting my trades over the last couple of years, I've managed to achieve a pretty decent win rate of like 70%. The majority of my losses, I can tell you right away just by looking from my journal, is that they tend to come on Mondays because price action Has something decent going on, but then for whatever reason, it just doesn't play out. So in this today's video, now that we are past Sunday, I'm going to break down the exact trade I'm looking at for today. And yeah, without any further ado, let's dive right into it. Starting things off on the weekly chart, we are looking at a bullish weekly bias, which means that anytime you go below the weekly open, this gives you an opportunity to jump into a power of 3 expansion towards the upside. Now, if you don't know what that means, like if you're bullish on this candle, then anytime price goes below the candle open, this gives you an opportunity to buy low, and then eventually, right? Because the odds are that you're going to get an expansion towards the upside. If you buy low, you can potentially sell high, and that's how you make money. Now besides that, we don't really have any other, you know, key levels to look at on the weekly chart, so nothing too much to talk about there. Let's go into the daily. Now in terms of the daily, we are looking at a bearish daily bias. Now the reason why this is the case is because we ended up getting a bearish candle yesterday. Now yesterday I also did mention another thing, which is that because we have a bullish weekly bias and the fact that in terms of news this week, we are looking at news only on Wednesday, so basically tomorrow, right, is the first piece of USD read for the news, there is a pretty high likelihood that the true move is only going to come on Wednesday or potentially after Wednesday. So the way that this could potentially play out is that, okay, we can see that there is an order block on the daily chart right here, and potentially, right, weekly bias is bullish, price drops between Monday and Tuesday all the way down to this key level over here, and then come Wednesday you form the bottom of the week and then you start expanding towards the upside. Now obviously this is not going to happen in a linear fashion, but just to give you an example of how this played out last week, this Level right here was the previous weekly low, and last week on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, you actually came down to retest this level, sweep it out, and then Thursday, Friday, you get the weekly expansion towards the upside because last week we were having a bullish weekly bias as well. Same thing here. Once you understand power of three, and once you understand liquidity concepts, and once you understand smart money concepts, and be able to piece it together, this is when you can start achieving some pretty decent consistency or just having almost like a crystal ball kind of way of reading the markets, which. At any point throughout this video, if you feel like a lot of this has been like gibberish, I have, I have actually made a video on, you know, just breaking down these concepts in a very easy-to-understand manner. I'm going to link it somewhere, you know, at the end of this video later. But for now, just understand that in terms of daily bias, we're looking at shorts. And at the moment, in terms of the weekly objective, we easily can make a move towards the previous weekly high, which is at $87,400. But for now, let's focus on the intraday perspective. And immediately we go down into lower time frames and we see that we have in fact a bullish CSD, which is actually not a good sign if we were looking for longs today. And so Another lesson that I would like to, you know, just share with you, or potentially just a scenario that we could— we should potentially prepare for in terms of today, is the fact that because today is a non-news day, the probability that we are going to get a very decent clean trade on a non-news day is pretty low. Because at the end of the day, you've got to understand, every single time the market makes a major movement, there oftentimes is a reason why that is happening. A lot of those times it tends to boil down to economic news. After all, if you are going to have the smart money and, you know, the big players entering the markets, who by the way are the only ones capable of moving markets aggressively, then they're going to need a reason to actually step in. Now, prior to USD rate fall news, what tends to happen is that everyone tends to stay on the sidelines thinking to themselves, hey, this is probably going to happen at this time. And prior to the news, there's probably not much of a reason for us to get involved. And if enough people think that way, then that's why you end up with Mondays and Tuesdays, especially if there is no news, why they just kind of start chopping around. Now, for now, because we have a bearish daily bias, we are supposed to look for evidence to support that argument. So there is only one potential way that I see this playing out. Which is a liquidity sweep, right? Kind of like a false bullish CSD. And if that were to happen, then you need price to do some sort of a sharp drop to the downside once you sweep out this level right here at 86,100. Now that is the only possible trade setup that I see for today. The second one is, sure, we might have gotten a CSD, but we're technically still within this bearish order block right here, which means overall we are still looking for bearishness and bearish idea is still intact unless— I'm going to give you the one trade I'm looking for. I'm going to give you the one invalidation criteria for that. But for now, liquidity sweep above 81,000— sorry, 86,100, followed by a CIST towards the downside on the 5-minute chart is going to be the ideal setup for today. Now, as for the timing that you're going to want to do this, you're just simply going to be trading in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. Now, I'm just going to put it out there that for the last month or so, the opportunities that we've been having before like 9:30 AM have been few and far between. And even if we do get some sort of an opportunity at around that time, what tended to happen Is that 9:30 will just kind of go completely the opposite direction as to the morning move. If the entire morning, like 7:00 AM to 9:30 AM, is pumping, pumping, pumping, 9:30, boom, sharp drop. And that's oftentimes from what we've seen over the last month, post-9:30 is when like the real volatility comes in and price drops aggressively or price pumps aggressively. So if I could give you a tip, it's that if you see this happening between 7:00 AM to 9:30, then 100% still go for it, right? Because that is still a valid setup. Plan to trade, trade to plan. But if it's already like 9:00 AM, for example, and this hasn't happened yet and your price is still a little bit uncertain and you're not quite sure where it's going to go, then wait for 9:30 and just see how the market reacts. Maybe you might get a liquidity sweep followed by immediate breakdown. And if that is the case, then you do that after 9:30, right? So I can't predict if, you know, leading up to 9:30 we're going to get the exact conditions for the trade, or if we're just going to chop around and then 9:30 you get the real manipulation and then, you know, you get a big dump. You could get even a big pump, which leads me on to the invalidation criteria that I mentioned earlier, which is you're going to want to pay attention to this level right here at 86,400. This is the top of the bearish order block right here, which means that if you recall from earlier, our daily bias is bearish, right? Overall, we are looking for bearish for today. The way that I explain this is that there are oftentimes— well, not oftentimes, there is 2 steps must be fulfilled before you have a trade setup. Everything else is just an idea or an opinion. Step 1 is that you need to have an idea about what the market's going to do, right? You need to have an opinion. Now, based on my understanding and based on my system, I would like to see something like this happening. I believe that today the market is going to be bearish, and in order to serve as evidence that the market is in fact bearish, this is the scenario I like to see. Now, which leads me on to my second point. Everything leading up to this point is just a thesis, right? This is what I think is going to happen. I don't want to act and put my hard-earned money on the line on a trade based on just my thesis. I want to wait for the market to give me evidence that it agrees with my thesis before I take an action. That sentence alone is like the secret to figuring out this game of trading. So many times we act purely based on our opinion or because our system says that, oh, if bearish order blocks are supposed to be areas of resistance, so When price comes into the order block, I'm just going to place a trade and go short. That's not how it works. When price comes into the order block, guess what you need to look for? That's right. Go into the lower timeframes and look for some evidence that, yeah, in fact, this bearish order block is in fact acting as resistance. The way that's going to come in this case is going to be a CIST, for example. In terms of today, when you go into the New York session, all you're looking for is, well, this would be the ideal one to happen, of course, because if you were to just start dumping from this point onwards, you're going to leave behind some relatively equal highs, which is not ideal. Ideally, we don't want to be trading into relatively equal highs. Ideally, we want to be trading into strong highs. We have strong highs. Highs is just a technical term to explain a high that forms after sweeping liquidity. Now, for example, this is liquidity right here. Once you sweep it out, that is known as a strong high. Now, the difference between a strong high and a weak high like relative equal highs is that relative equal highs tend to get manipulated above, right? Because liquidity hasn't been swept yet. So what you often see is that you jump in before you before the highs get swept. What ends up happening is that you yourself are going to place your stop loss above the relative equal highs, and then you are going to get stopped out before the true move happens. Let's say in 9:30. So Wait for the strong high to form. That's condition number 1. Once you get the strong high, you just look for a 5-minute CIC towards the downside, or just some sort of confirmation that order flow is in fact bearish on the 5-minute time frame. And that's going to be your trade of the day. If you end up closing above this order block right here, it invalidates our entire theory that price is bullish because we already got a bullish CIC here, right? That's an early CIC on the 1-hour chart. If you get another CIC, that is an undeniable bullish CIC, which completely invalidates our idea that In terms of the daily bias, we are bearish. Obviously, if the market gives you evidence that it is bullish, then today is just going to end up as a no-trade day. It's as simple as that. I'm not trying to make predictions as to what is going to happen with price today. I'm simply taking the raw price action, which is the input. I'm taking it through my process, which is my trading strategy or my trading system, and then giving you guys the exact setup that would be possible, right, that I would be looking for. It doesn't mean that I'm saying this will happen. This is the trade I'm planning, then I'm going to trade the plan basically. And this is just one part of many things that I teach inside the paid program. Everything I'm sharing here on YouTube is probably like 20% of like the things you actually need to be able to put it into an actionable system and be able to get consistent profits using the system. Now, as much as I can, I am trying to share on these daily videos. That's why I try my best to educate. But at the end of the day, if you're someone that cares about speed to result, and if you don't want to screw around watching these free videos, getting bits and pieces here and trying to piece it together, if you've been trading for a while now and you haven't been getting results, then hear me out. We have worked with 45 students so far on a serious basis. Of the 45 students that we have worked with, we have 31 that are currently funded for more than $100,000, and we have quite a few that are above the 7-figure mark. This kind of success rate is completely unheard of in the industry. One, because our program works, right? The system works. I mean, you've seen it with these daily YouTube videos. With the use of the system, we are consistently able to be on the right side of major market movements. We're always able to see when potential reversals or potential big Kind of moves are incoming. So the system works is what I'm saying. Because we work with everyone on a one-on-one basis where we are there to hold your hand through every single step of the process, making sure that you're doing things right, we have a 70% success rate, which simply cannot be achieved if I were to just hand you a course and say, hey, go figure it out yourself. So it's a program that's different from anything else that you have seen before. And if you've been watching these videos for a while and you know that this works, and if you'd like to make it work for you, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, feel free to check out this video right here if you'd like to learn a little bit more about smart money concepts explained in a beginner-friendly way. Ciao ciao.
