In this concise market commentary, the presenter outlines a cautious trading approach for a low‑probability, non‑news day. He explains that many charts still have unfilled CME gaps, which historically tend to fill on Tuesdays, creating a mismatch between technical bias and expected price action. Consequently, he limits his focus to two setups: Bitcoin, which shows a bullish daily bias, bullish order flow on the 1‑hour chart, and a clear entry trigger of an hourly candle closing above 76,900, targeting a swing high around 78,150; and USD/CAD, which carries a bearish daily bias, with the entry condition of an hourly candle closing below a specific level, aiming for a roughly 50‑pip downside move. Throughout, he stresses the importance of waiting for undeniable confirmation on low‑probability days, contrasts aggressive versus cautious trading styles depending on market environment, and reinforces disciplined day‑selection—highlighting that not every day warrants a trade and praising viewers who stay out when conditions are unsuitable. He concludes by promising to monitor X for any later setups and to return with a new video the next day.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to break down the daily setup for Bitcoin and as well as one other chart that could be interesting to look at today. But overall, I do have to give you a caveat— it is not the most amazing day when it comes to the markets today. Not only do we not have news, but for the most part, if we take a look at the chart right now, there are a lot of charts where the CME gap that I talked about from yesterday has either just currently barely been filled or In other cases, it has not yet filled completely. And one thing you have to understand is that there is a tendency for these charts to go fill in the imbalances. And that tends to happen at a highest rate on Tuesdays. So for all of these gaps that you see here, now there is a pretty decent chance that price is gonna come and fill in those gaps. But do I wanna take a bet on, you know, price filling in those gaps? Because the truth is, if we take a look at the daily chart, we'll see that, for example, on euro, we have a bullish daily bias here, which means technically following this system, that we're using here, we should be looking for a long. But because we have the CME gap that hasn't yet been filled, there's a bit of a mismatch of expectations between, you know, what we should actually look for versus what the price is likely to do. And so for that reason, I'm going to avoid most charts today except for one chart that I've already taken a look at and is actually decent. But let's start things off with the Bitcoin trade first, because Bitcoin, believe it or not, is actually looking clearer compared to the Forex alternatives. So yeah, Bitcoin, you're looking at a bullish daily bias. And right now, in terms of the 1-hourly chart, you're already in bullish order flow. And right now, coming back into a bullish order block. Now this is all happening during the Asia and London sessions for today, which means the setup that we're going to look at for today is going to be pretty straightforward, where we're going to wait for price to get an hourly candle close above 76,900. If that happens, this is basically going to turn into a new bullish order block. Price is going to retrace into here. This is where we are going to be interested in getting into the trade, and we're going to go long. And in terms of the long targets, we have a swing high over here that has yet to be taken. That is at around 78,150. Now, is this going to happen? I don't know. But at least if it happens and if these conditions are met, we know exactly what is going to be the high probability trade that we're going to be looking for. But with that aside, we're going to— let's take a look at USD/CAD because this one's interesting where you have a bearish daily bias so far. You've got a couple of really clear bearish targets. In this case, this is about 50 pips away from where price currently is. And right now, the only trigger that I would be looking for is an hourly candle close beneath this level right here that will kind of confirm that this entire block here has turn into a bearish order block and we can kind of like short that towards the downside. Now until that happens though, I'm going to try to avoid this because again, I want you to remember that today we're dealing with a non-newsday here, which means that the overall environment that we're trading in right now is a little bit lower probability compared to just a newsday or just a day where we don't have CME gaps across the board, which means that there is going to be a much higher chance of shenanigans happening on a low probability environment. Hence, we want to wait for the market to give us undeniable signs that it is going to move this way. Before we jump in. And there are days, basically what I'm saying is that there are days where it is a correct thing to do to be a bit more aggressive, to go in with less confirmations because you're just dealing with a quality day in general. And then there are days where it is smart to wait for more confirmations because of the environment that you're dealing with. So you kind of compensate for both kind of scenarios. But with that said, this is gonna be a pretty quick video today, to be honest, cuz there's honestly too much, there's honestly nothing much to look at. And even with yesterday, I did not end up taking a trade, which is just very normal, right? It was Memorial Day, it was Monday, it was no news, and And for the most part, everything had seen any gaps. And like, it's just not the right environment to trade. Like, I was looking at the chart, don't get me wrong, but I didn't really see any opportunities worth taking. If you guys also did the same because you did not see the correct conditions present, I want you to give yourself a pat on the back because you have managed to stay out of a day where you shouldn't be trading, which is kind of what I said yesterday already. But, and at the end of the day, remember, not every day is a trading day. And like, just because you can trade every day doesn't mean you should. Trade every day. But with that said, I'm going to see you guys tomorrow. And of course, I'm going to be on X later if I see any, you know, setups worth taking. But for now, pretty quick video. See you guys.
