the stock market had it's biggest dump in MONTHS... is bitcoin about to follow?
In this solo market commentary, the host (Roman Ceccardi) explains how a recent, massive pull‑back in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ—triggered by stronger‑than‑expected U.S. jobs data and rising expectations of higher‑for‑longer Federal Reserve rates—creates a bearish macro backdrop for Bitcoin. He outlines why tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar pressure Bitcoin, and stresses that upcoming CPI data will be a key catalyst for further downside. The video then shifts to a layered technical analysis: a bearish weekly bias with expansion opportunities, daily and 1‑hour order‑flow showing bullish micro‑bias, and a 5‑minute setup that aligns with a London‑session low‑sweep. The presenter identifies a liquidity zone around $65,000 (with a secondary block near $66‑67k) as a target, proposes an entry near the current price, sets a stop just below the London low (~$62,650), and estimates a 1:2 risk‑reward. He notes the trade meets most of his system’s eight criteria except for a news‑event trigger, so he will risk half‑size. Throughout, he promotes his trading bootcamp, cites a 78 % personal win rate, a ~50 % student funding success rate, and offers a money‑back guarantee. The video ends with a call‑to‑action to follow him on X and to join the bootcamp.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to break down exactly what is going on with Bitcoin because throughout the weekends, like, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ basically went through one of the largest liquidation events in basically recent history. And I'm going to get into how that is going to potentially affect Bitcoin. Besides that, I'm going to get into the overall weekly setup for Bitcoin. I'm going to get into the daily intraday, like, the trade that we should be looking for today, or no trade. But either way, today is going to be a pretty interesting one. Actually did a little bit of prep prior to, you know, recording this video. So hopefully you guys will learn a thing or two. But otherwise, before I get into it, if you're new to the channel, welcome. My name is— I have been publicly documenting these daily trade videos every single day for the last year and a half or so, and I have about a 78% win rate. So if you're new here and you don't know anything about what we do, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I am wrong. But with that said, let's get into the video for today. So first things first, we do want to get into the overall kind of like S&P 500 and the NASDAQ situation. So the S&P 500 just had one of the sharpest pullbacks in months, with roughly $1.8 trillion wiped from the markets just like that. And the interesting part is that this happened right after like a really strong jobs report, right? Because normally strong jobs should be bullish, but in this market, somehow the good news became bad news instead. And here's kind of like the main explanation, right? The— well, just to give you some context, the US economy basically added 172,000 jobs in May, which is above expectations, while unemployment stayed You know, at 4.3%, which on the surface that sounds amazing, but the market does not only care about whether the economy is strong; it cares more about what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. So the stronger the jobs data is, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates, and that is the real issue here. Because a few months ago, the market was you know genuinely still hoping for you know the Fed to do multiple rate cuts. But now, after stronger jobs data and sticky inflation pressure, and most people are now starting to price in higher rates for longer, which is kind of the official term for this, and at the the moment, some banks are even pushing their Federal Reserve rate cut expectations further into like 2027. So this is terrible for like growth stocks or, you know, your S&P 500, AI, or just generally bad for risk assets. And this matters even more for Bitcoin, but I'm going to get into that in just a bit. But one of the things you need to understand about this week is that we have inflation coming up, right? We have CPI. And if this CPI comes in hotter than expected, the market is going to get another reason to believe that the Fed cannot cut rates. But if CPI cools down, then maybe the market might see some sort of a pump from the believe, right? So right now the market's basically stuck between like 2 forces. You have a strong economy on one side, and then you have like increase or like higher for longer rates on the other. And this is part of the reason why, you know, risk assets like stocks and the S&P 500 or whatever is selling off and losing value even after a strong jobs report. And this is also going to be a reason why Bitcoin is gonna continue to just go towards a downtrend, right? Nothing in terms of macroeconomics is lining up for a potential Bitcoin reversal. Like we've already covered Bitcoin going down for the last like 2, 3 weeks or so already. I've managed to basically call this entire pump, this entire dump that you see on the charts right now. And we've taken advantage of every single move. In fact, even if I just go onto Twitter, you will see that, like, again, I've been calling these trades, like, for you guys live as it happens. So if you guys follow me on Twitter, then you guys would have been able to get access to this. Like, shout out to Chili Hardy, you're 1 hour away from being $50K funded and 2 hours away from another $50K. And overall, like, students are just genuinely getting a whole lot of success. That aside, right, just to explain why this is not going to be good for Bitcoin, you have to first understand that Bitcoin is currently not trading like some isolated asset, right? It's kind of trading as more of like a high-beta liquidity asset, which is a whole lot of jargon, but essentially it just means that when the market is expecting lower interest rates and like a weaker US dollar, or just in an environment where there is more liquidity, Bitcoin tends to benefit. But when the market starts pricing in for higher-for-longer rates, or like a stronger US dollar, or like just tighter liquidity in general, Bitcoin is going to struggle. So the logic is very simple, right? If you get jobs data being good, means you're going to get fewer rate cuts. Fewer rate cuts means you're going to get tighter liquidity. Tighter liquidity usually means more pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, and you get the overall picture. So this does not mean that Bitcoin is going to continue to crash immediately, but it does mean that we are not in that kind of like macroeconomic situation where we're going to be expecting pumps. So price action aside, macro is not supporting this either. But with that said, let me know if you enjoyed that little segment. But basically, if I can give you like a TL;DR, basically watch inflation for this week. Like CPI alone is probably going to give another reason for Bitcoin to just start dumping. And not only Bitcoin, but watch for your NASDAQ and your S&P 500 as well. As usual, one of the things that makes us different on this channel is that we're not just going to be looking at macroeconomic data. In fact, this is one of the first times that I'm actually looking at macro. We're going to still tie this back into this high probability, like 70% win rate kind of strategy that we're going to be using. So let's get into that. So starting things off on the weekly chart, again, we have closed bearish, right? Which also means that for this week, we're going to be looking more towards a bearish Expansion. How does that look like? Essentially, this is currently where Bitcoin is having the weekly open at, right? Anytime price gives you an opportunity that goes higher above the weekly open, especially if it comes into some sort of a resistance level, we're going to take advantage of that so that we can sell high and to take advantage of the true expansion towards the downside. Now, this here is a framework that I've used time and time and time again on this channel to basically call just incredible movements with incredible accuracy. Why? Because this is rooted in smart money concepts, right? This is exactly what the institutions are looking for. This is exactly what the smart What money you're looking for. So like, I'm not claiming to understand like exactly what systems they use, but what I do know is that with a good enough sample size, I've been, again, I've been doing this for years now, making these daily videos, like calling the trades. It's only until like, it wasn't until like 2025 where I started actually documenting the win rate of it. I always knew it was good. And to the OGs out there who are still, who've been watching me for since a few years ago, you know that these, the accuracy of these calls are really good. It's just in 2025 I started tracking. But either way, with the sample size that we have, at the very least we know that this is something that works and is right more often than not. And the power of 3 is one of the core concepts behind this entire framework. So your core concept aside, like, we're going to be looking for some sort of a downside move. Now, one of the key things to understand is that last week, like, the target base— like, at the start of the week last Monday, I basically laid out 3 potential targets, and all 3 of them has been hit in the last weekly candle, which is a huge surprise, right? I wasn't expecting such a big weekly candle, but regardless of what we got, we played that well. In the sense where, I don't know if you guys remember as well, like one of the things that I keep telling you guys about last week is that not to overthink if the potential bottom could be in. I remember a lot of people asking me like, okay, hey, now that Bitcoin has come from like $74,000 or $73,000 all the way down to $63,000 in basically like a couple of days, shouldn't we expect that, you know, shouldn't we expect the market to start slowing down and, you know, to become a little bit more cautious? But my answer to that was like, hey, if the trend is going to continue being bearish, you simply continue to sell low and to buy back lower. There's no point trying to be like trying to be smart and try to predict like when the bottom is going to be in or when, you know, you're going to get less volatility because the truth is nobody knows. And it's not the job of a trader to know that either. It's simply our job to read what the markets are going to do and to simply, you know, read this thing, like just basically listen to what the market is trying to tell us objectively and then to act upon it. Ideally with some sort of a proven system, which by the way, if you would like to learn my proven system, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and book a call. If we can help, we'll make you an offer. If we can't, don't worry. Like we'll at least set you off with, you know, a few things that you can do right away in order to improve your situation. So it's not just like, it's not like some stupid sales call where we just shove things down your throat. Generally, it's a discovery call. Like we're just going to take some time to understand your situation. Obviously, if we can't help, like we wouldn't, we wouldn't want you either. Cause you know, that's only going to cause more problems for us. But if we can help, we'll make you an offer. By the way, if you're interested, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get back into the daily setup for today. So In terms of the daily setup, I'm going to go on the whim and say that today is probably not going to be the best day for trading. Not only are we dealing with CPI on Wednesday, but prior to CPI, we have absolutely no news today and tomorrow. This basically means that, okay, first of all, I've really kind of started the video off by giving you a lot of macroeconomic data, right? This means that we have a lot of expectation for how CPI is going to turn out today. Like, there is a good chance that the entire market, not just crypto, is setting up for some kind of bigger move heading into CPI, which also means that these couple of days are probably not going to be amazing. Amazing for trading. That is fine. You don't need to trade every single day, especially not Bitcoin. Doesn't mean that I'm going to just completely avoid this, but I'm also just starting to look at the charts at the same time as you, right? So that you guys can kind of see the raw kind of breakdown of how I would go through the charts. First thing I did was start off on the weekly. Now I'm going to go into the daily. Now, in terms of the daily, what I'm looking for specifically is direction, right? Yesterday closed bullish, but overall we're still in some sort of a downtrend. So at the very moment, I'm leaning a little bit more towards the downside. But like, it's also not enough information for me to really tell, which is why I'm going to go down into the 1-hourly chart to see how the order flow is looking like. And in terms of the overall order flow, we can see that, okay, we have had a couple of pumps. We have had a solid kind of like CIST, which means that the 1-hourly order flow is starting to look at, you know, starting to look like it's going to go towards the upside. And one of the other beautiful things is that we have a nice liquidity level here at around $65,000. So there's a pretty good chance where we're going to just pump all the way up to $65K, sweep out all of the liquidity. Essentially, this is currently the range low and this This is the range high. We sweep out all of the liquidity, take out the range high, fill in this order block that we did not fill from last week. And then potentially this is going to be, if you recall earlier from the weekly setup, this is going to be the sell high opportunity of the week so that we can take advantage of a dump towards the downside. I expect Bitcoin to slowly inch up like throughout Monday and Tuesday. And it doesn't need to be this order block, by the way. Like it could be, it could be an order block from somewhere higher. Like for example, this one right here. Which is sitting at around $66,000 to about $67,000. Like, either way, both kind of fits the overall kind of picture that I've painted out for you in terms of the weekly bias. So that's going to be what I'm going to be looking for. Now, in terms of today, does that mean that I'm going to start looking for a long? Potentially. Let me go down into the 5-minute timeframe to, you know, figure that out. So one of the promising things immediately that jumps out to me is that prior to the London session, we actually had some sort of a range going on where Like this was the Asia range. And during the London session, specifically at close to 2 AM, which is kind of when we expect manipulations to happen, we swept the Asia low on a day where we have a bullish bias. And ever since then, you have been forming a really strong CSD, which also means like this tells me that A, this is a strong low, right? Because this was manipulation happening at the manipulation timeframe with a daily bias that is bullish following the fact that we have now bullish order flow on the 5-minute chart as well as the 1-hourly chart. And the daily is also pointing towards the upside. Even though we have reasons not to trade today, But we, our system, like this basically matches all of the criteria within our system. And if it does, like, I think we're just going to take it. So at the moment where price currently is already, this is already a valid trade setup where basically like we enter here, we place a stop there and we just target for $65,000. This is already going to give us a risk reward easily of like 1 over 2. And this I would be more than happy to take. In fact, I'm probably even going to take this after recording this video. And yeah, the only, you know, the only possible invalidation for this is, well, yeah, literally just going to be the stop loss, right? It could lose, it could win, it doesn't really matter. Like, it doesn't really matter what I think the trade is going to do or what I think the market is going to do. It matters more that, okay, if I were to kind of tally what the market is showing me right now to my system and the criteria of my system, all right, how many entry criteria does it match? At the moment, basically everything except for needing a news event. And so for that reason, probably going to go half risk on this one because it does not meet, you know, 1 or 2 criteria out of like 8. But for the most part, I think this is pretty solid. So I'm going to try it out. Now, by the time you watch this video, I might have already missed that entry, or heck, I could be stopped out. I don't know. Doesn't really matter. Like we did, we did, we performed so well last week that I could basically genuinely not trade for the rest of the month and like, I'll be fine. But still, hey, I got to show up to, you know, make these daily videos for you guys. So I am still going to be trading. So either way, like what you want to see by the time you watch this video is for price to not break below this order block right here. Basically, if you get a candle close below $62,650, Right, a candle body close on the 1-hourly chart below this level, this basically invalidates this entire idea that, you know, you're looking bullish and chances are you're just going to continue retracing for the rest of the day. Because right now we're going off of the assumption that this London low that was formed by sweeping the Asia lows with a bullish daily bias during the London session is going to hold as a strong high. Now, if this does not hold as a strong high, then well, guess what? The idea is invalidated. It's also part of the reason why I'm setting my stop loss at the London low, expecting this to be protected. If it isn't, it's going to end up being a no trade. And by the time you watch this video, as long as this doesn't happen, it's still going to be valid. It also means that your 5-minute order flow and everything's going to be bullish. And heck, if as long as you're trading between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, which is going to be the New York kill zone, as long as you have bullish order flow, you literally just continue, you know, buying higher and selling higher until you hit $65,000. Now, if I see any sort of new momentum entry that, you know, that shows up on the chart, You best believe I'm going to be calling it on X. So feel free to follow me there if you would just want to follow along with all of the trades that I'm taking. If I don't really see anything, like I'm not going to mention it, but yeah, it's going to be all for free. Feel free to check it out. But anyways, like I cannot even start to say, like just last week alone, we had 3 new students get funded. 2 of them managed to join the $100,000 funded club. And like, this is what we do, right? We have about 60 students inside bootcamp. 28 of them are funded at this point, right? That's close to a 50% success rate. When I tell you, like when you hear the amount of conviction that I have in what I do for you guys, when you hear The amount of conviction that I have in regards to boot camp, I know it's because it genuinely works. If you guys have tried different trading programs before and you've been burned before, trust this one. Like give it a try. Like worst comes to worst, we give you your money back plus more because we we just genuinely believe in what we do and we believe that what we do helps. But if it doesn't, you best believe we give you your money back. Either way, if you're interested, click the first link in the description box below. But I will then see you guys on. X and drop a comment down below if you made it all the way here. If you appreciated that little macro breakdown, and if you appreciate like this extra alpha that I'm taking some time to basically share throughout this video. But anyways, yeah, longer video today. I'll see you guys in the next one. Ciao ciao.
