In this weekly market outlook, the presenter reviews Bitcoin’s price action across multiple timeframes, focusing on fair‑value gaps, volume‑profile value areas, and premium/discount zones to forecast short‑term moves. He explains how a weekly fair‑value gap creates a potential support/resistance zone, corroborated by daily and 12‑hour volume profiles that show where most trading volume has clustered. Three possible scenarios are outlined: a failed acceptance (price breaks below the value‑area low), a breakout above the value‑area high, and the most likely scenario—a retracement to the value‑area low followed by a bounce toward the high. The analysis then shifts to entry strategy, emphasizing buying in the “discount zone” (≈ 59.5‑56.5 USD) rather than the premium zone, with a specific target range of 62.5‑60.7 USD and a key support level around 57.7 USD. He highlights the importance of relatively equal lows as strong support, the role of market makers and high‑leverage liquidations, and frames trading as a probability game, noting that while the probability of a bounce is higher, nothing is certain until confirmed. The video concludes with a call to use these tools for informed trading decisions.
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What's up everybody, welcome back to another weekly outlook. So last week's weekly outlook, we were pretty much spot on on what Bitcoin was going to do. We had an upwards expansion, although we didn't quite get a 50% retracement back into the weekly candle where I was saying, you know, $61K would be an amazing level to buy if you had a wick into here. Essentially what I was predicting for last week, you open up here, just a little retracement first before an expansion upwards, and then you would close the week like that. That's exactly what I drew out last week. While we didn't get that retracement, we did get that expansion. And this week it's going to be kind of a similar story. Being just on the weekly chart, this now becomes a weekly fair value gap for Bitcoin to hold. And this is very similar to the analysis that I did on the Dixie recently, where once you leave a fair value gap on the weekly chart, this becomes an area where you can look to find resistance/support before continuation towards the trend. We go back to Bitcoin, you will see that Essentially, we're opening up the week here. So what's likely to happen is that, as you can see, today is Monday already, and you know price is sort of going into a downtrend. That today is a day where we reverse. Possibly, we will reach this area on Tuesday, latest Wednesday, before another kind of expansion upwards before closing the week off like that. At least that is my hypothesis about the weekly profile. And whether or not that weekly profile is going to be correct will depend a lot on news because the low of the week tends to happen on a red news day. Usually, that is either Tuesday or Wednesday. But as you can see, if we just filter this by purely the USD— so as you can see, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday has— well, essentially every day you have red news. But what I would have liked to see to confirm that, you know, the low of the week might have formed on Tuesday or Wednesday would be something like CPI, something like, you know, a federal funds rate, stuff that's like super major even amongst the red news. So essentially at the moment, this week's going looking like a volatile week. Now, just to zoom into the daily chart to see if there's any supporting evidence for our weekly profile hypothesis, let's take a look on the right at the volume profile. And I'm just going to roughly mark out the value area high and possibly the value area low. And essentially what this is, is think of the majority of the volume that happened in the last 6 months to be concentrated around this area, right? This is known as the value area. Of course, you have here like with a little, you know, spike in the volume node. But for the most part, right, the majority of the volume is concentrated in this area. And if we zoom in furthermore, this is even more exaggerated on the 12-hourly chart where you can see the biggest peak of the volume concentrated in the last 500 candles is around this area. We go on to the 4-hourly chart. Well, now we start to get a different picture because, well, we're too zoomed in. And the reason why I mark out the value area high and value area low is because, you know, basically since the start of the month, we have been trading actually below the value area low of the daily chart, as well as the 12-hourly chart. And this is important to know because now we have recently just broke back into the value area. Remember, this is where the majority of the trading volume is located. This is where the majority of market participants, including both retail and market makers, they believe that this here is essentially fair value. I know, like, if you purely look at the highest concentration of volume, it's going to be all the way down here. That's why the POC is down here. But we just look at this range here, right? This is where the majority of participants believe is fair value. And recently you have just broken back into the area that is known as fair value. Now what usually happens at this stage is 2 things. First, you get a failed, you know, acceptance. This entire process that's happening right now is called acceptance, and you get a failed acceptance where, you know, you break below the value area low, find resistance, and then you break lower. In this case, we are truly in for a lot of pain, and, you know, we're pretty much going back into a bear market at this point. Second scenario actually would be to break straight through the value area high, come down to find support at the value area high, and then, well, over here, this is amazing news. But even though both of these scenarios are a possibility, I believe that this third scenario is going to be the most likely one, where you come down to the value area low to test it as future support. Essentially, this is kind of like, you know, breaking back into the range and then, you know, using the range low as support before you basically oscillate to the range high. And this is the process that I expect to happen, you know, this week and potentially heading into next week. So for the most part, I think this week is going to be a little bit more of a retracement type week, especially with the amount of red news that we've got coming up throughout the entire week. Now, this is actually becoming a very scenario. Essentially, now we have a second piece of supporting evidence that, you know, this area is going to potentially act as support. The first piece, of course, is the weekly fair value gap. And if you must, then we also have a third piece of evidence that states that, you know, over here you have a daily fair value gap as well. Now, the only thing that slightly concerns me is the fact that if we were to look at this range like that, the 50% mark actually falls underneath $60K, right? And for those of you who have followed this channel for a long time, you know that we always like to place our purchases within the discount zone rather than in the premium zone. And The easiest way that I can explain this to you, that within any given trading range, you have what is known as a premium discount. And premium is anything above the 0.5, discount is anything below the 0.5. Now, buying something at a premium would be like me selling you an iPhone for like $5,000 and you still buying it. Sure, you still get an iPhone, but not at the best prices. In fact, you are very far away from the best prices. Now, buying in a discount would be like me selling you an iPhone for, let's say, $500. You're getting a great deal. And this is what the market makers are thinking about whenever they are making their purchases, which is why you will always see that within Every trading range, price doesn't just go up and down, you know, constantly. You always retrace back into a zone of premium. In this case, you have the 0.705 before some kind of continuation. And you can see this repeated time and time and time again with new trading range. You retrace back into the premium, new trading range, retrace back into— well, in this case, it's going to be a counterparty liquidity sweep. But again, new trading range here. You break this previous low, so now this becomes your new trading range. You retrace back into a premium before you know, you dump the price further. Now that is of course in a bearish market condition. Now that we're in bullish market conditions, we want to look for discount retracements. And in this case, this would imply that the area that we want to look for is anywhere between, you know, 59.5 till about 56.5. If we exaggerate this range even more, going from this low to this high, this becomes even more, you know, exaggerated, where the first area where we want to buy from is 57.7. And this would even break The 4-hourly idea that this is the point of control, and then, you know, there's really strong support around this area. This, I don't think, is going to be the most feasible option. It's a possibility to keep in mind, but it definitely doesn't line up with the weekly profile. Now, this all changes though if we fill this fair value gap this week and next week we fail to break above and form a new high. In fact, next week, if we form another down-close candle, basically let's say the opening price is here and we close below, right? This indicates 2 weeks of bearishness in a row. In this case, then it looks very feasible that we're going to go all the way down here. For now, given the recent, you know, pattern of bullishness, I think it's much safer to assume that this is going to be the theory that's going to be more prevalent instead. And for those of you who are looking to get into an entry, again, your area that you want to look for is between 62.5 to about 60.7. Now, just to zoom into a lower time frame to give you guys a better idea of exactly where to look out for, you can see that there are 3 relatively equal lows around this area. That's 1, that's 2, you can even say there's 4 relatively equal lows. Now, this one's already taken. So we're not going to count that. So let's just say there are 2. No matter what, there are 2 relatively equal lows. Now this matters because relatively equal lows are levels that, you know, typical retail traders are going to look at and be like, hey, you know, price, uh, bounced from this area like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 times, whatever. So this area is quote unquote strong support. But the market makers notice as well. And so what happens is that you're going to get a lot of market participants either setting your stop loss right underneath this strong level of support, and you're going to have a lot of people looking to get into the market once the market retests this strong level of support. And you're also going to have a lot of liquidations in this case because the majority of market participants getting into crypto, they use really high leverage. I'm talking 20x, 50x, or even 10x at the minimum. Now you're probably going to be safe if you're going on 10x, but that's you and not, you know, everyone else. Everyone else tends to go really high leverage. And so essentially what I'm trying to say here is that just a slight dip below this area is going to trigger a lot of liquidations. And so relatively equal levels, could be highs, could be lows, tend to act as a magnet for price because, well, you know, there's a lot of market interest around these areas. And so with that in mind, this also provides us another level of confluence that market is probably going to retrace into this area somewhat during this week. And whether or not we hold this, completely different story. You think that the possibility, right? Trading is a game of probabilities. If there's only one thing certain about trading is that there's nothing that's ever truly certain. And just playing the game of probabilities, the probability of price holding this area at the moment and trading higher is, you know, it's a higher probability bet than price breaking lower down below the value area low and then, you know, just breaking lower. Of course, Nothing's confirmed until it's confirmed, and only time will tell. But for now, hopefully this video will give you a solid outlook on the week and will give you all the necessary tools to make your trading decisions this week. But otherwise, until then, see you in the next one. Cheers.
