The US-China Trade War Will Liquidate Many Bitcoin Positions

What's up, guys? Welcome back to another video. So yesterday, we absolutely nailed the move on Bitcoin where we called an Asia accumulation, London manipulation, and then I was saying that New York was going to distribute to the downside. I even gave you guys the exact setup. Basically, you wanted to see a breakdown, New York to retrace, and then boom, off we go. Yesterday, Bitcoin basically dumped by like $3,000 from $105,000, $106,000 to actually $6,000, way more than $3K actually. Yeah, we dumped by, you know, $5,000 to $6,000. And so we absolutely nailed that. And that puts us up to 50 wins, or rather 52 wins out of the last 64 calls that I've made. And this is since February on all public YouTube calls, which puts our win rate right now at 81.25%. So for those of you that are new here, just know that you are probably in the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. And in this video, I'm going to continue to, well, do my best in order to maintain this streak. Before I get into it though, I just wanted to shout out all of you guys in the comment section. Just know that I am reading all of these comments. Sometimes I do not get the opportunity to reply, but thank you for all of the kind words. Like, the only crypto channel I'm watching now, that is super high praise, so appreciate it. Classic Rock Films, cheers. And for all of you guys that, you know, all the positive comments, just know that I appreciate you. And there is one comment that I kind of wanted to address, and this is going to be more of like a, almost like a mindset training for you guys. Because I think this is going to be very valuable for you guys. So this one right here, to ZFriendZ, right? Nice clickbait bearish scenario, but then at the end presents a positive, like a potentially bullish scenario. Here's the thing, man. As a trader, like this is a mindset that you need to have in order to be like consistent as a trader. Let's just put it that way. And this mindset that I'm talking about is thinking in terms of probabilities. If you'll notice, like across all of my videos, It's all about— I'm never like, okay, this will happen, or like, we are absolutely sure that this will happen. It's more of like, okay, based on the scenarios that I'm looking at right now, based on the— sorry, criteria that I'm looking at right now, I do think it's more likely for scenario A to happen, and this is how it's going to happen most likely. But it's also good to also consider like the other side of the scenario. So many times I see beginner traders just get completely bought in on like tunnel-visioned into one scenario, and they just kind of like ride or die with that, you know, scenario. And ride or die is like the right word, because if it plays out, great, they're riding it. But like, even if it doesn't play out, or maybe the market's giving you signs that, hey, it's not going to play out the way that you kind of envision it, you still ride it, and then you end up, you know, dying from it. And so this scenarios-based thinking is essentially just considering multiple possibilities, right? Mapping out multiple scenarios. It's kind of what I do in these videos. where I say something's more likely to happen, but it's also good to consider what can happen or like what needs to happen in order for the opposite scenario to happen, right? And this is kind of like the life of a trader. It's less about predicting what the market's going to do, and it's more about mapping out multiple scenarios. And then when these scenarios happen, it's more of like just reading and reacting. Just to give you an example, yesterday we talked about how, well, at the time that I was making the video, we were here. And so I didn't really have an opportunity to tell you exactly where price was going to, you know, retrace into. But the scenario was price will retrace into One of these fair value gaps, probably within the zone. But as after the current moment that I'm filming this, it's 4 AM during New York. When you get closer to 7 to 10 AM New York, if you see a break underneath the Asia lows and then price somehow retraces into the middle here, right into either one of these like fair value gaps, then that will be your setup for the day, right? It's not about just price action, it's also reading price action based on what is happening in terms of time. There are certain behaviors in price that I mean, the price tends to repeat at certain times of the day. And one of those times is definitely the New York session, which is why we trade during the fill zones. So today, the setup is most likely, more likely than not going to be that. I would have drawn this box. And you can see that we— now, the fact that we were, you know, close to it is one thing. But the key here is that I was mapping out the scenario. How would you trade this? Well, you want to look for a retrace sometime during the New York kill zone, which eventually price break down, retrace during the New York kill zone, and then boom, right? Continue heading down. Anyways, I digress. Hopefully that was a bit of a, you know, good mindset little training for you guys. And if you guys can, you know, adopt more of this approach in terms of like just thinking in terms of probabilities, it's never like certain 100% in one way. It's never also certain 100% in the other way. It's more of like, okay, these are the conditions, and if it happens, then this is what I do. If-then statements, right? Very, very powerful reframe that helps a lot of people kind of overcome their bottlenecks when it comes to, you know, technical analysis. So now that Now with that out of the way, let's actually get into the technical analysis part of it. So starting it off on the weekly chart, again, uh, we mapped out this fair value gap right here. Basically, price anywhere between this and this right now is still the weekly fair value gap. And overall, if you take a look at the trend, it is towards the uptrend, right? Not only is market structure within the uptrend, but the order flow is also in an uptrend, which means that at the moment, anything that happens, like quite literally Anything that happens between this low here and here, price, you can go like up, down, left, right, inside, outside, whatever. As long as you do not break this low right here, the uptrend is still intact. And for the foreseeable future, because we are in an uptrend and because we're in bullish order flow, this remains the target. Which means that any short-term retracements that you see on Bitcoin, for example, yesterday we dumped by $5,000 to $6,000 in response to the truce that US and China, you know, the trade war has been going on. They called a truce. And that's what led to the market dumping. Why? Because this truce kind of favors the US dollar, right? As the DXY was going up, Bitcoin goes down. Because when DXY goes up, Bitcoin goes down. Bitcoin is denominated against the US dollar, right? It only makes sense if US dollar goes up, Bitcoin goes down, right? And I know that has not yet, or rather, that has not always consistently been the case over the last few months. Because sometimes when the DXY was going up, Bitcoin was also going up. And that has to do with so many other macroeconomic factors that I will not get into in this video. But just understand that is the current situation, which means that the moment we go into the daily chart, let's take a look. So daily chart, yesterday we drew out this fair value gap right here, and yesterday we talked about how these relatively equal lows here were going to get swept, and that indeed happened. So now what is the update in terms of the daily chart? Yesterday we closed pretty bearish, but we're currently still within the fair value gap. And purely because yesterday's candle closed bearish, today we are not going to be necessarily looking for longs unless I see you know, clear signs that there will be a long opportunity. And so daily bias is towards the downside, probably going to target this low until it gets proven otherwise. Okay, that's the key word here. Currently, in terms of the long-term trend, we are still in an uptrend, but in the short-term trend, we are in a downtrend, which means that we continue trading short until the market gives us signs that it wants to reverse and continue back in the uptrend. And so hopping onto the lower timeframe, this becomes even more clear because now we have this fair value gap formed right here, as well as a couple of highs Relatively equal highs. This is the exact same concept that we used yesterday where we have the fair value gap right here, but then we have a bunch of relatively equal lows. One thing you need to understand about these relatively equal lows is that RELs are magnets for liquidity, right? A lot of retail traders are going to be looking at this like, whoa, you know, this must be, you know, a trendline support because price couldn't break through this level. It's very good support. In reality, that is not the case. The market always moves between points of liquidity to points of liquidity, right? Higher timeframe objectives, It should be internal. Like, for example, this right here is internal range liquidity, and then here is external range liquidity. Ultimately, you want to look at where the liquidity is. That's where the market's going to go. And all of these little things right here, that's just like a trap to get people to, you know, commit to trades too early and commit to trades outside of the value areas, which in this case was this fair value gap, and in the other case was this high that got swept yesterday. So today we also have relatively equal highs right here, which will be a magnet for liquidity. Prices, I think, today, just purely based on the chart right now that I can see, at least from the 1-hourly chart. And based on the daily bias, again, daily bias is towards the downside. Today, it's more likely a sell high opportunity and, you know, riding that wave lower. Currently, we have these relatively equal highs plus a 1-hourly fair value gap. And so I think, you know, potentially this is the setup for today. Now, for those of you who are wondering like, oh, there is also a fair value gap here, right? That's a bullish fair value gap. Well, this is where that higher timeframe bias comes into play. The reason why we always start our analyses up on the higher timeframe is because we want to be trading in line with a higher timeframe trend. And at the moment, the daily chart is pointing towards the downside, and so we disregard the bullish fair value gaps, at least on the initial analysis. I'm going to hop onto the lower timeframe now to see if I can, you know, further refine this down. But let's take a look. Currently, London is trading above the Asia highs, just like what happened yesterday. So usually Asia tends to be accumulation, London tends, right, tends, not always, but tends to be manipulation, and New York distribution. But today, This theory is going to be really put to the test because again, I mentioned that we have these relatively equal highs over here, which means that until these highs are taken out and this fair value gap is filled, potentially we're going to get that, you know, quote unquote manipulation during the New York morning session, right? So you want to look for price to enter into this zone, right? To take out these highs, enter into this zone anywhere between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. In fact, let's kind of like narrow this down and head over to Forex Factory because we want to see when is the news. Yesterday we talked about how this week has news, and in this case it is at 8:30 AM. So, so sometime around 8:30 AM to let's say 9:30 AM, you want to look for price to enter into this fair value gap right here, manipulate everyone out, right? Stop everyone out that was like either long or short at this moment, and then boom, that's probably going to be the real move of today. All of this is just a liquidity buildup for the news that will drop later on, and I think that's going to be the setup for today. So essentially the game plan is When you enter into the zone, I want you to look for a lower timeframe change in state of delivery or a market structure shift. This is the key here. We're using the 1-hourly purely for points of interest, right? We're not using the 1-hourly to like, oh, you know, we're going to take the trade on the 1-hourly. It's more of like, okay, once we enter into that area of interest, 5-minute, boom. If you have a change in state of delivery, then that is what you trade. So potentially the trade for today could look something like, you know, depending on how price action plays out, of course. Now that I'm recording this video, it is currently 5 AM in New York, so I cannot be here, you know, later on during the New York session to tell you guys exactly what to do. But in general, this is going to be the draw liquidity for today, right? The previous daily low. And potentially you can get— you can end up with a 4 to 5 hour trade. Now let's zoom out a little bit and see if there are any other, you know, liquidity points that we can potentially target. And there is a fair value gap right here that price stopped just shy of. So potentially you may come in to fill in this fair value gap. Not saying that it will bounce from this point onwards. Again, the trade for today, more likely than not, is going to be towards the short direction. And so we just continue trading this short until proven otherwise. And so speaking about proven otherwise, what needs to happen in order to, you know, prove this theory wrong? I'm going to start off on the 5-minute chart here first. So to answer that question, we're going to take a look at the 1-hourly. And this has to do— now what I'm doing is going to be reading order flow, right? What needs to happen in terms of order flow in order to confirm a shift in trend? And a good place to start off with is this block right here, right? This entire block right here is known as a bearish order block, and until this one gets broken through, price is not going to be like— you cannot say undeniably, without a shadow of a doubt, that price has now shifted bullish. Now, an early confirmation that you might get before this block gets broken through is this block right here where price currently is. If price is able to confidently break above this block and most importantly actually find support within this block, right, basically forming a higher low Which is also a possibility. From here on out, if you can break market structure again, basically what you want to look for is structure point to form here, retrace, but then break structure at this point here. If you get this today, then this will show you that price is actually going to continue that long-term uptrend instead of, you know, continuing with this retracement phase. As for which one's going to happen, I don't know, but I'm mapping out the scenario so that you're prepared for either one that happens. But I do think that based on how price action is kind of shaping up at the moment, there is A higher probability that price is going to come into this fair value gap, right? Again, depends on how price action plays out, but I do think that this is the more likely scenario of the two, right? Price enters the fair value gap, sweeps out all of these highs, changes state of delivery, whatever. If you get it, then it's going to be a trade towards, you know, even if you're not targeting this liquidity point, by the way, you can just take out the Asia low, and that will still give you an easy, you know, 2 to 3 hour trade depending on where you get into. Now, the last scenario that I want to discuss is the fact that because yesterday we had such a volatile move, today it could just end up being an inside bar. Now, what is an inside bar? It's basically when you get a daily candle that does not sweep either the high or the low of the previous daily candle. And essentially, this is just a sign that it was a choppy day. For example, on this day right here, you did not sweep out the high, you did not sweep out the low. So this day ended up being very choppy. That is also a possibility that happens because the market tends to move from periods of high volatility to low volatility, which means that after aggressive moves, you tend to, you know, chill out. range a bit. And that is just a normal function of the markets, just like how after you spend an extended time in, you know, a low volatility situation, boom, the move tends to be pretty explosive. That's why people say, oh, the longer you spend in a range, the more explosive the move going out of it is. Inverse is also true. The more explosive the move, the more likely it is that you could spend, you know, some extended time in just ranging, basically. But I do think that today we are going to get some type of move because we have CPI later. News events are a kind of like a predictor of volatility, right? News events by itself don't tell you if the price is going to go up or down, right? But what it does tell you is when you can expect moves to happen. I always like to say that there are always 3 variables when it comes to trading. One is your direction in price, right? Is it going up or down, right? This is variable number one. Secondly is how far or how low it'll go. And the third one is when. Is it going to happen? And the power of news is that it helps you remove this third variable. You basically know when the move is likely to happen. Now you just need to figure out what is the direction that price is going to go and how far it's going to go. And so based on all of these factors, hopefully that gives you a pretty in-depth analysis on, you know, what to expect for today. And just so you guys don't forget, even though we are looking, you know, bearish in terms of the short term, just understand that we are overall still in an uptrend. So whatever moves here that happen is just kind of like a buy-the-dip opportunity. Ultimately, you still want to be looking for retracements to get into, you know, your spot bags or whatever for the move to ultimately continue higher following the higher timeframe trend. And with that said, if you enjoy these analyses based on the smart money perspective on crypto, make sure you subscribe to this channel because I'll be coming to you with a video every day giving you the breakdown. But otherwise, guys, have a good day, and I'm going to continue finishing this cigar, which has been absolutely fantastic, by the way. Um, this is a Limited edition. I forget the fancy terms, but this is a custom rolled cigar that I got from Kuala Lumpur. And if you guys, if there is any viewers from KL or Malaysia, do let me know in the comment section down below. The name of this cigar shop is called La Habana Cigar Company. And if you look for their, they call it the Edition Limitada custom rolled, it's actually really, really good. Surprisingly, I've held on to this for like 5 to 6 months at this point and honestly just couldn't really find an occasion to smoke it just because of how big this is. I don't know if you guys can see it, but this is a, this is a thick boy. And today we have a beautiful day in Vietnam where, you know, it's kind of cloudy, not as hot as usual, not a lot of wind. And so I decided, hey, if I'm going to be spending the afternoon researching the situation on the US-China trade war, or rather the truce that's going on right now, then hey, it was a good opportunity and a good occasion to light up this Stogie. Uh, so far very good. If any of you are in Malaysia, if you can visit that cigar shop, highly recommend it. Uh, but otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.