This Hidden Factor Tells You When Bull Markets Begin | BTC Update

What is good everybody? Welcome back to another market update. In this video, I'm gonna let you know if Coin is indeed going to start dumping, or is this just a retracement in a larger move towards the upside? Besides that, I'll also be telling you all about how liquidity cycles and market cycles work and how you can use those in order to determine when the next bull run's gonna start. So before I get into price action, let's begin by talking about market cycles. So we all know that crypto goes through bull and bear cycles, but how do you actually determine the bottoms and how do you determine the tops of these bull and bear cycles? Firstly, let's talk about the typical crypto market cycle. Now granted, we only have 4 cycles to use as a reference point, so the sample size is pretty small. But there is a recurring trend amongst all the market cycles, and one of these things you probably never thought about. So after every Bitcoin all-time high, it goes through roughly an 80% drawdown after about a year. So the price bottoms almost exactly 1 year after the prior cycle's high. For reference, the time it took to go from peak to bottom is exactly 363 days. So you can also say that this has come true so far in this cycle. After that, Bitcoin starts recovering, taking about 2 years to reach a new all-time high. So assuming we start counting from November 2022, we would be expected to hit a new all-time high roughly at the end of 2024, which leaves about a year of price action for Bitcoin to go from $40K to about $70K over the next 12 months-ish. Then Bitcoin continues to rally for another year before topping out at its next cycle high, and the cycle then repeats. Now this is the part that most people get wrong. Bitcoin halvings are not the primary catalyst for Bitcoin bull markets. Instead, liquidity cycle uptrends play The crucial role here. It just so happens that each halving aligns with an expansionary liquidity environment. And what does that mean? Now, what does an expansionary liquidity environment mean? Well, it simply means that there is more money flowing into the markets rather than everyone being scared and hoarding all of their money and being afraid to throw money into investments because, well, simply put, economic times are not good. Recently, this liquidity trend has been on the rise, and this is supported by the Fed and just rebounding central bank liquidity. And, and this is probably one of the largest factors in the recovery of risk assets, including crypto. Now of course you also have the BlackRock ETF, but liquidity is what moves the markets. If you guys want to learn more about liquidity cycles and just how manipulated and how predictable all of these market cycles, including crypto, stocks, indices, whatever it is that you can think of, go read this book called The Lords of Easy Money. All it basically talks about is how the Federal Reserve controls these market cycles by controlling the interest rates and by controlling the liquidity. But anyways, with all of this news in mind, given that the Fed is expected to continue to lower interest rates over the coming 12 months-ish, the expectation is that there will be a continued uptrend for Bitcoin and crypto exit. If that trend were to continue, then Bitcoin and just crypto as a whole are expected to go wild considerably over the next 12 to 18 months. That's a little bit about market cycles and liquidity cycles and why, you know, the bull market might have already started, but price action would suggest that you are not yet too late to get into this. First of all, in the last 2 market update videos, I just taught you guys to momentum trade until you get like it just clearly confirmed the break of structure on daily chart. This is not the time to short yet. And if you guys took the advice and just went long until, you know, it tops out, that would have been an extra 15 to 20% move depending on where you got in at. And that's great and all, but what's about to happen next? Well, firstly, we do have a confirmed change of character over here on the daily chart where that is a swing low right there, and you just got traded through with a daily candle body close. Now there are only 2 ways that this is going to play out. Now I want to give you my thought process on how I think this is going to play out. There are a couple things that you need to understand about the markets. One, the Markets always move from a period of high volatility to low volatility. So notice how if we just study price action throughout this period, you can see that price expands and it sort of just chills out a little, expands, chills out a little, expands, chills out quite a little, expand, chill a little, expand. And right now I'm expecting a range formed somewhere between the $45K mark and the $40K mark. So that's about a $5K range. Now that's the first thing you need to understand is that even if you were to look for a short, things don't just happen instantly. The markets don't just move up and down like just, you know, straight away. There is periods of high and low volatility. And secondly, what do you do when you have this confirmed change of character? Because for those of you who don't know what a change of character is, it is the first sign that the market is now reversing the trend. So there are only 2 ways that a change of character can play out. Number one is you retrace back into some kind of PD array. In this case, this would be a fair value gap on the daily chart. And if we were to draw a 0.5 fib onto that fair value gap, you can see that the, the level that we could expect Bitcoin to get rejected by is $42,800, which means in the event that Bitcoin retraces back to $42,830, that is an area where you can look to go short in order to form a new low. This is how change of character works. It's as simple as that. Now, the second way that this could play out is retracing back into an order block on the daily chart, in which case Bitcoin could go as high as $43,300. Now, that's the second way that it can play out, and both of these are both PD arrays. One is just a fair value gap and the other one's just an order block. But as for these 2 areas, definitely watch them for potential retracements. Now, the last way that this can play out, and it's hard— I can't tell you how it's going to play out right now because, well, I don't know. I But it's simply a liquidity sweep before a downwards expansion. So notice how you have a lot of equal highs over here, and before Bitcoin starts just dumping aggressively, it takes out those highs first. And we can extrapolate this to many, many different examples. In fact, I believe that the previous bull market high— like, this is exactly how it happened right here. You have a high, sure. Afterwards you do retrace into, you know, the fair value gap, the order block, whatever, and you do get a little bit of a retracement over here. But the real move doesn't begin until you sweep the liquidity one last time just to make everybody believe that the market is going up. And then you just pull the chairs and the musical chairs stop and down you go. Same thing here. There are only 2 ways that this can play out essentially. One is a retracement and the second is just a liquidity sweep before a down move. By the way, I do believe that given this change of character, like the signs are clear in the sense that if you were to look at market structure over the last basic— over the last 3 months, even if I were to just draw internal market structure, you can see how much the higher low, higher high structure has been respected. And basically you do not get any changes of character at any given point until right now. And this should be an indication to you that the trends, or at least the tides, are shifting. Because right now you have just gotten your change of character. Again, there are only 2 ways that this plays out. One is a retracement into a dump. Second, liquidity sweep into a dump. Either way, I do believe that right now this is the confirmation that we've been waiting for over the last month and a half-ish for a short. Now, how low will Bitcoin go? This is definitely not going to be one of those moves that just takes Bitcoin back to $20K. This would completely misalign us with the bullish scenario that I just gave you, as well as the liquidity cycles and the halving cycles and all of that. So I wouldn't expect Bitcoin to go all the way back to $20K? I would love it to because these relatively equal lows down here at $25K, just so juicy. But what if this is just a retracement in an overall uptrend? Well, the only way to find out is to actually start shorting. Now, the way that I would approach this is one, I would set some alerts. So I would just set an alert on, you know, this level here, set an alert on this level, and I'll also set an alert on this level. And then when price, you know, hits any one of them, what I wanna see is I just wanna hop onto a lower timeframe. And I also just wanna see like some kind of change of character in the sense that lower timeframe price action might do something like this. And then once it hits there, You might form a lower low as well. So right there is also your change of character, right? That's a shift in trend where high, high, high, low, high, high, high, low until this point you get lower low, lower high, boom, right? That's your change of character. Once that happens, any kind of retracement into any single area, you just go short and you don't even have to catch the top in order for this to work. Actually, one of the most common misconceptions that especially beginners in crypto have is that you need to catch tops or catch bottoms in order to make the most money. In fact, most of the money is actually made in the middle when you hop in When you hop into an already confirmed trend, this is kind of just like the tip that I gave you over the last couple weeks to momentum trade, right? The trend hasn't stopped yet and you don't wanna start shorting too early because this is what could happen to you. Instead, just wait until you get a confirmed sign and once you have it, boom, just momentum trade. And momentum trade until where? Because you need to have a target. Otherwise, how would you know when you should stop shorting? Well, in this case, I do believe that these relative equal lows here are going to be target number 1. That's just really juicy liquidity that you can take out. If I was a market maker, I would definitely bring the price back down here. And this is also a really good thought exercise that you can do, which is if you were in this situation as a market maker and you needed to stop out as many people as possible, where would be the area that you would want to bring it to? Well, maybe I would want to bring it one last pump higher to make everyone believe that we're going to $50K, we're going to new all-time highs, and then dump it all the way down here and then make everyone believe that we're just going to go to zero. And then potentially from here you just bounce back again. The market makers like to play games with retail traders because retail traders are simply very easy to manipulate and very easy to steal money from. But that's going to be target number one, is Essentially, you just momentum trade. Either it's going to be a retracement, either it's going to be a liquidity sweep. Momentum trade all the way until 35K. Like, don't even look back until you get a daily— like, until you get a confirmed daily just candle body close above— like, just change of character towards the upside. Right now we got a daily change of character towards the downside. The way you know that the tides are shifting is if you get a change of character towards the upside. By that point, I will definitely be making another video for you guys so that you will be super equipped, so that you will be well equipped to handle whatever is going to come next. But for Well, that's target number 1, and I would set me personally target number 2 at about $33K. And anything else, like if it doesn't bounce from here and if it still keeps making like just lower lows and lower highs, then I wouldn't be surprised if it hits $25K. But again, it's still a pretty far off target. Not to say that it can't be hit pretty soon given how quickly Bitcoin moved from $16K all the way up to $44K in, in basically over a year. But still, that is a far away target, and I would focus on these 2 targets first and what you can do in the immediate short term. Now if you found a ton of value from the trading tips that I gave you in this video, you are going If you love the Wins in Cash newsletter, it's basically my newsletter where I'm sharing with you one actionable trading tip every single day that you can apply to your trading right away to start making more money immediately. This covers psychology, technical analysis, whatever you can think of that's related to making more money trading. I got you. Click the link in the description box below if you'd like to join that newsletter. And the best part is it's free. So join in, nothing to lose. Anyways, I'll see you guys in the next video. Trade safe and bye-bye. Bye.