today is going to be an EXPLOSIVE day for bitcoin (be careful!)
In this YouTube video, Xuan (the speaker) delivers a live, step‑by‑step analysis of a Bitcoin intraday trade he plans to take on a high‑impact red‑folder news day. He starts by framing the weekly chart, identifying the first swing‑high around $83,000 as the primary liquidity target. He explains that price moves toward untapped swing highs/lows (sell‑side liquidity) and that the weekly swing low has already been taken, setting up a potential move toward the swing high. Moving to the daily chart, he notes a bearish bias but points out a bullish order block and overall bullish order flow, suggesting a possible long bias that must be confirmed on lower timeframes. He discusses the upcoming news window (7:30‑9:30 UTC) and how high‑impact news often triggers liquidity sweeps—either a rapid upward sweep followed by a breakdown (a manipulation trap) or a straightforward bearish continuation. He outlines two possible scenarios: a liquidity sweep up then down, or a clean bearish order flow leading to a new bearish order block. For trade execution, he provides concrete intraday liquidity targets ($76,600 and $75,600), a 2:1 risk‑to‑reward (R:R) rule, and criteria for confirming a short entry (e.g., candle closes below key levels, absence of bullish CIC). He emphasizes flexibility, letting the market dictate the trade, and warns that a bullish candle close above $79,200 (ideally $79,500) would invalidate the short setup. Throughout, he promotes his proprietary trading system and prop‑firm funding program, citing a 75 % win rate and a 50 % student funding success rate. The video concludes with a personal anecdote about traveling in Japan with his grandparents, reading viewer comments, and encouraging viewers to follow his live trade posts on X.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to break down the exact Bitcoin trade that we're going to be looking at for today. Now, one thing you need to know right off the get-go is that today is the first high-impact red folder news day for this week, which means that chances are, more likely than not, we're going to get a decent setup today. And in this video, I'm just going to break down exactly what I'm looking for. And yeah, before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. So chances are I tend to be right a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. Now that I've given you a decent reason to listen on, let's get into the video. Yeah, just kicking things off on the daily chart. In fact, we're going to just do a quick reminder on the weekly chart because I feel like it's important to understand where in the big picture we are. Because yes, we have had a decent amount of pump today already, but it's also not the final amount of pump in my opinion. Because in terms of the weekly chart, this is the ultimate target, right? Which is at $82,900, which you could basically say it's $83,000. Now, the reason why this remains the key target is that this is the first swing high on the weekly chart. And currently we are reaching towards the swing high. Now, the reason why I mentioned this with confidence is because what you need to understand, right, is that behind every single major move in the markets, there's always some sort of objective that price is trying to reach for. There's always some sort of reason price is moving aggressively towards a certain area. And usually, More often than not, that objective tends to be previous liquidity levels, and liquidity can be clearly defined as previous swing highs and swing lows that have not yet been tapped. So if you take a look at the weekly chart here, we have taken out the previous swing low, right? Throughout this entire pump here, and the moment you started dumping, guess where you were aiming for? You were aiming for the sell-side liquidity. And once you take out the sell-side liquidity, guess what? Everyone is exhausted down here already. So now there is more money to be made to stop out anyone that potentially has not closed out their trade from before here, or to trick anyone into thinking that, oh yeah, this is going to be a breakout or like whatever, right? The key thing is that this is liquidity. Price— the fact that price is so close to the liquidity makes my job really easy because I get to sound smart telling you that, oh yeah, yeah, price is definitely going to come here. But like, truth be told, this— hopefully the mechanism or the way that I've explained this to you earlier makes a lot of sense. And trust me, this is something that— and one thing's for sure, throughout the last couple of years that I've been publicly documenting this, and also throughout many years that I've been making these daily videos, this is something that's super effective. And it basically kind of pinpoints you exactly to where price is likely to head towards. Now with that out of the way though, let's get into the daily chart. Right before I do, by the way guys, I read the comments from yesterday. I mean, I read all the comments actually. I really appreciate the safe travel wishes and like, yeah, it's heartwarming to know that a lot of you do watch till the end of the video. I kind of get the impression that majority of you don't really watch to the end of the video, but it's also why I tend to leave the more personal stuff Listed to the end, right? Because you know if you're going to stick to the end, chances are like you're invested. But like yeah, appreciate the well wishes. One thing's for sure: this has been a completely different beast. You know what? I'm going to save this for the end of the video, right? Let's get into the daily chart first and let's talk about the trade first. If you want to hear me rant about Japan and my travels so far, then like yeah, stick around to the end. But yeah, daily chart. We are actually looking in fact at a bearish daily bias. Now this is going to be a little bit misleading, and I think once I go into the lower time frames, this all going to make sense. And mind you, like this is. I've literally just popped open the chart. I'm running on currently 2 hours of sleep. I've been running around like a headless chicken all day. So like, yeah, I'm doing the analysis with you at the same time. So hopefully this gives you an inside glimpse into, you know, how you actually approach this step by step in a very raw kind of way. Just kicking things off on the daily chart, right? It is bearish in terms of the daily bias, which means technically speaking, I should be looking for a short. However, the fact that, you know, I have clear liquidity targets on the weekly chart, plus the fact that over here on the daily chart, we have a bullish order block that we're coming back into, plus the fact that we are generally Looking incredibly bullish in terms of the overall order flow leads me to believe that I might want to prioritize longs instead. But whether or not we go against the daily bias is going to come down to the lower timeframes, and the lower timeframes gives us even less to work on. Actually, yeah, this is going to like the playbook, or rather the play for today is going to be super simple. So when I say just explain what I mean when I say like this is not really giving me much to work with, it's the fact that if you take a look at the price action from you know basically the start of the London session all the way till now, heck, actually even end of the eight. Asia session, we've basically gotten zero volatility for the entire day so far, which is not great because like the best kind of market conditions to trade with, especially if you're trading this system that we're using right now, the best sort of market conditions are always the ones where it's clearly trending and it's, you know, clearly heading in one direction instead of chop. But, and so what this tells me, right, it's not really the end of the world, but the fact that we have news later at 8:30 AM tells me that London is kind of just anticipating, right? It's just kind of setting up for a potential liquidity Trinity soup or like a potential manipulation move later on before the true move happens during the delivery of news. Because let's face it, right? When it comes to like one of the ways that you can think about high impact, you know, red folder news is that you may not necessarily know what's going to happen in terms of, you know, direction. Like there are some guesses that we can have and, you know, I've called these moves pretty accurately over time just by virtue of following the system. Most of the other market participants that are looking at this piece of news, they may not necessarily know where price is going to head towards, but what they do know is that that And many other traders are going to be looking at that exact time, expecting something to happen. And so a very common scenario that happens is like yeah, you do get you know some chop before the is that you get some chop before the session actually starts, and then later on during news you're going to see some sort of an aggressive kind of manipulation. Like for example, you might sweep the highs, and then you might aggressively head towards the lows. Now the reason why I'm mentioning the lows, by the way, is the fact that we have actually a bearish CSD on the one hourly chart, and the fact that we have also a bearish daily bias as well means that I'm not just going to blindly. Blindly ignore this bearish signal just because I would like the market to go higher or that I think the market should go higher. At the end of the day, like, there's my opinion and that's what the market is trying to tell me. 9 times out of 10, I try to go for what the market is trying to tell me instead, right? And that's a virtue of, you know, a good trader, right? You always want to strive for that, being objective and trying to read what the market is trying to tell you as much as possible with as minimal of like your own subjective opinions as possible. Now, obviously, you still need an opinion about the markets, otherwise, you can't really trade it, right? But like, you want to be able to remain flexible and to pivot when the market tells you otherwise. So for example, right now we have gotten a bearish CISD. Clearly this previous bullish order block from yesterday, which by the way, I was not trading yesterday because I was on a flight getting 2 hours of sleep. And right now you have a CISD and you're coming back into the bearish order block. Now, by the time the new session rolls around, I do anticipate, right? For example, even within the next 5 minutes, you're potentially going to get a CISD below this line right here at 78,800. If that happens, this is going to become a new bearish order block. And by the time the new session rolls around, if you see price just kind of continuing to dip lower and lower and lower, that's going to be the move for the day. You could also argue that there is a bit of a head and shoulders pattern. You know, if you're anyone that trades patterns, this is technically valid. You just broke down below the neckline. It's only a matter of time until, you know, you get the aggressive move towards the downside. That's what I'm eyeing, right? And the other scenario, right, the other way that this could play out is that instead of closing below and just kind of cleanly going towards the downside, We have a couple of relatively equal highs above here at 79,200. There is also a possibility that as you approach the news window, which by the way, the news window simply refers to the hour before news to the hour after news. So considering that news today is at 8:30, it means that news is going to be at 7:30 all the way till 9:30. So between 7:30 and 9:30, in the event that you see some sort of a liquidity sweep towards the upside followed by a breakdown below, especially as you approach that kind of news window, then that will tell you that this is very likely a manipulation move to trick everyone into thinking that price is going up, but in reality, the news is going to drop the price, right? So there's 2 ways that this is going to play out, but in both cases, we are going to be looking towards the short side. And by the way, if you enjoy the fact that I make trading sound really easy and systematic, and if you would like to learn this system for yourself, so that you can also start trading systematically and very simply and potentially make a full-time living from trading so that you have more freedom to do the things that you want to do, or just spend your time however you want to, or with the people that you want to, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Like, you are going to work with us one-on-one. until we get you that result. And the results have been staggering so far, to say the least, right? About 50% of the students that join the program end up getting funded or just be able to just have all the skills equipped to go full-time into trading. And no other program out there can claim this kind of success rate. And, but we do because we track every single result and it's only because we care about your success. Anyways, yeah, if you're interested, click the first link. Otherwise, don't worry about it. Now just going down into some potential targets for today. Now, if we take a look at the daily chart, we can see that we have Monday's low and we have the low from basically Tuesday and we have the low from basically like Sunday. And in terms of the daily chart, that's definitely going to be liquidity point number 1. But in terms of the lower timeframe, right, if you take a look at the 1-hourly chart, the low all the way from Monday definitely seems to be the one that makes sense. So these are both going to be like key liquidity targets just in terms of the intraday basis. So that's $76,600 and $75,600. Now, am I saying that price is going to drop $2,000 today? Absolutely not, right? I cannot predict volatility. We can have signs to kind of read what the direction that price is going to kind of head in, but volatility is a whole other ballgame, right? For all I know, price could just come all the way down here and stop short, or it could come here, or it could completely blow past this one. But either way, these are just good reference points. So by the time you watch this video, if you're in a trade and if you're wondering where to take your profits, like, you wouldn't go wrong with either one of these. But at the end of the day, the way that I like to operate with my trading TP is super simple. I, whatever amount that I'm risking, like for example, my stop loss is like that, I will literally just draw a box all the way to when this number says 2. That means I'm getting 2 risk to reward ratio, which means if I'm risking $1,000 on this, I stand to make $2,000 from this if I end up winning the trade. Believe it or not, as small as that number may sound and as insignificant as this may feel, this 2R Is like the moneymaker. Because when you go for like smaller targets, you tend to win a lot more often, right? You get a lot more consistent and that alone does wonders to your trading psychology. But at the same time, like again, whether you risk 1 to 2 risk to reward ratio and if you only risk $10, then yeah, you make $20. That's not really gonna make much of a difference. But if you have access to, you know, prop firm capital or if you hire someone who's trading with higher capital, that's when, you know, the game changes because now you can risk like $5,000 and make $10,000 back and you can do it at a very consistent kind of win rate rather than having to, you know, bet the farm and try to swing for a home run every single time just to get like, I don't know, a 10 to 1 risk to reward ratio, which is very rare and you're gonna go through a lot of losses, you know, trying to chase that. So yeah, consistent doesn't mean it's gonna be slow and it definitely doesn't mean small wins. The only bottleneck for most people, to be honest, is the amount of capital that they have, which is why I advocate so much for getting funded with prop firms because they fix that exact problem. If you don't, like if you have the skills to be a good trader, but you don't have the capital to make a meaningful living out of trading, Guess what? That can be solved just like that. So like, yeah, not to digress too much into this, just understand that so far today we're looking at 2 scenarios. First, which is going to be a liquidity sweep above and then, you know, a breakdown below. Second of all, if you just get continued bearish order flow, which at the moment in about 20 seconds this candle is going to close, which means this is now going to be a new bearish order block, which means like, yeah, as price kind of retraces back into this, this is already good to go. Yeah, you're going to target, you know, this one and you're going to target the liquidity point down below. Like, all of these are relevant targets. But by the time you watch this video, if price is just going to continue to head towards the downside, it's as simple as jumping into newly formed order blocks. And that is that, right? It's called momentum trading. It seems really risky and it feels really risky. And yet this is one of the most consistent ways that not only me, but a lot of my students have been printing cash. And the best part is because you're jumping into a trend that has already established itself, like the overall trend is super clear, right? You may not know that the trend will still continue, but the trend is clear, right? It's going towards the downside, for example. All you have to do is jump in at some point, right? Hop onto the train at some point and then get off at some point. And when you get into trades like this, they are super simple, super straightforward, very low headache, and they tend to play out really quick. But just one other thing to keep in mind is that in the event that you do get a candle close, right? A candle close above this level right here at $79,200, that is going to signify a potential bullish CIC, right? And I say potential because like the Ideal level that you want to see kind of close above the 1-hour chart is going to be 79,500. In the event that you get a candle close above this level, then guess what? None of these short ideas are going to be on the table anymore. And that is perfectly fine. Again, you've got to remember that just because we have a trade idea kind of formulated here doesn't mean that it's going to be a valid trade setup. A trade idea is just an idea. You need to still wait for the markets to— like, for example, right now I have listed out a few conditions that I would like to see before a short gets confirmed. The market also needs to confirm these criteria for me before I can jump in, right? Just to, you know, just break down that kind of thought process. But yeah, anyways, if there is a trade that I'm gonna be taking today, I'm gonna be posting it on X. So feel free to follow me there. Like none of my trades are gonna be gated behind some signals group or whatever. But yeah, just keep in mind, like I am genuinely running on like 2 hours of sleep. I may even just call it an early night today, which, man, it's my first time actually traveling with my grandparents. Which has been a dream of mine for a very long time. Like, I've always tried to get them to come overseas with me or like just to bring them on travels. Like, I've always had the capability to do so. But if any of you are Asian and if you have Asian grandparents and if you're watching this, then you know the Asian parent mentality of like, yeah, they never want to spend your money. Like, even if you're doing well, they never want to be a burden. So took a long time to convince them. But man, well, it's a completely different ballgame. Like the way, you know, the way that I do things, Like, I've had to change completely just the way that I've been traveling. Like, usually I like to go to cafes and enjoy some specialty coffee. They don't drink coffee, unfortunately. Usually I also like to bring my laptop out just to, you know, do some work in case like I have some time to kill. Also can't really do that. So yeah, bit of a learning curve, but overall it's still been very fulfilling and definitely a dream come true. But anyways, if any of you are sticking around until this point, appreciate you as always. I read every single comment. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.
