Trade I’m Taking Today (+ Tons of Alpha)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. I really hope that you managed to watch the video from yesterday and actually take a trade because a lot of people managed to get 3R out of it. And so that puts us up to 154 wins out of the last 191 trades that I've called since 2025 on Bitcoin. Now, if you'd like to replicate the same kind of like success or just be so systematic to the point where, you know, every day you know exactly what you're looking for, when it happens, you take it and chances are you're gonna make more money than you lose over the long term. Now, if that's something that sounds interesting to you, I want you to click the first link in the description box below. Blueprint is closing in the next 4 days. If you'd like to get access to the whole system, right, you have 4 days left to decide. Otherwise, let's get into today's video. Now, just to kick things off for today, unfortunately yesterday was the one and only news day for this week, which means that chances are for the rest of the week, we're not going to be dealing with as high probability of conditions. Although with that said, there's still a pretty interesting setup on Bitcoin today, and I'm going to break that down. But just understand that there is a reason why the trade yesterday was so easy. And all of the kind of like scenarios that I mapped out would just Kind of happened, and Bitcoin ultimately moved a lot more than we initially expected. In fact, and that's because yesterday was a news day, right? When there is news, there is oftentimes a reason for price to move, and there is a reason for price to move aggressively. Now, when you don't have USD news, or rather USD red folder news, as you can see on the screen right now, then yeah, you have less of a reason to move, but not to say you have no reason to move. So now let's get into the charts. You know, enough chitchat. So just to kind of take a look at Bitcoin, the weekly objective has technically already been achieved, right? If you guys remember from, you know, the start of the week, mentioned that, you know, we want to look to buy below the weekly open. So anytime you go below the weekly open, you want to buy to take advantage of some sort of a move towards the upside. Now, towards the upside is kind of a vague statement, but right now we have just taken out the liquidity level that we left behind all the way from 16th of March, which means that, you know, for now the liquidity seems to have been taken. And assuming that Bitcoin is currently in a range at the moment, which it clearly is— well, you know, it might not be obvious on the weekly chart, but let me go down into the daily and you'll see what I mean. Bitcoin is very clearly in some sort of a range right now. So there are only 2 ways that this can go. One is that you take out the range high and chances are you're going to go back to the range lows because that's just how ranges work. Once price is in a range, it has a tendency to want to remain in a range. So at the moment, $60K still seems like the target, right? Assuming this scenario comes true, which whether or not it comes true or not, it's like, I'm not trying to predict it either. Now, the second scenario that could happen is that, you know, okay, maybe we are no longer going to be in a range, right? Price has decided that it has accumulated enough and we're going to go for a reversal. In that case, then we do not want price to break below this daily order block over here. In the event that price does break that, then yeah, you know, you're screwed. You're definitely going for a range retest. And like, chances are this bullish order block is going to get broken through, and then price is going to flip it, turn it into a bearish order block, and then you're going to head towards the downside. Now, even if you don't go all the way to like $60,000, you would at least go to $65,000 because this is the first major liquidity point, not only on the daily chart, but also on the weekly chart as well. And obviously you have another liquidity point over here. But that's a little bit too far to tell. Now, here's one of the very important lessons that I'm going to impart to you. First, I am not trying to make a prediction here. People that try to predict what the market's going to do, like, yeah, sure, they may eventually be right, but like, ask them if they actually make money from it, then chances are the answer is no, because being right in the markets and actually making money in the markets, like, they don't need to both be present at the same time for you, you know, to actually make— like, you don't need to be right to make money in the markets, right? Let's just put it that way. And the reason why I say this, trying to predict this is like me right now I'm taking a short, like, to target the range lows just because that is what I think is going to happen. But the truth is there is not enough confirmations yet for that to happen. Because just because, like, sweeping the range high, yes, you know, in order to go to the range low, you do need to sweep out the range high. Yes, like, that's step 1, and that's like the final result, right? There's still a couple more steps in between. And as an example, step 2 might be that, you know, you need to break below this order block. And then step 3, maybe you want to come back to retest this, you know, bullish order block turned into a breaker block. And once you form a higher low or like a lower high, once you form a lower high in this case, then, you know, maybe that's like step 3 or step 4, and then you can dive into a trade, right? But there needs to be a couple more confirmations between, you know, right now, okay, we have a thesis, all right, range high swept, there is a possibility that we go to range low. But until you get a few confirmations for your criteria that are met, then, you know, at the end of the day, it's just your idea, it's your thesis, and you can't really act on a thesis until the market has confirmed it, right? So that's the lesson. So I'm not trying to predict it here, but more like just painting out a couple of scenarios that could Like, we're not— like, the earliest that we're probably going to find out about this is end of the week, but most likely it's going to be, you know, sometime during the next week where, you know, either we're going to get a retrace and then we're going to still, you know, close the week bullish, in which case next week we're going to look for a bullish trade. And then, you know, we might finally be out of this little slump that Bitcoin is in and, you know, the market can continue going up. Or in the second case, we also need to wait until next week to kind of like know if, okay, is that bullish order block going to act as support or is it going to break lower? Right. And right now it's a little bit too early to tell, at least from a swing trading perspective, right? Doesn't mean that we cannot get into an intraday trade, which I'm going to get into right now. Now, I know I spent like, you know, 4 to 5 minutes, you know, kind of talking about the macro. If that's something, you know, you would appreciate, because ultimately I'm looking for a place to, you know, kind of get back into my Bitcoin positions and, you know, my altcoin positions as well. I just thought it would be interesting to kind of mention that. But otherwise, let's get into the intraday setup, which again has nothing to do with a swing trading setup. So, so far, based on an intraday perspective, you are looking at a bearish daily bias, which means that we're going to be looking for shorts. Now, besides the bearish daily bias, again, you have already kind of like taken out a very key liquidity level on the weekly chart. And right now you have already formed some sort of a heads and shoulders pattern. And also you have already broken below the heads and shoulders pattern. And also you have recently, I think, come back to retest this heads and shoulders. Not yet. So at the moment, the setup is going to be super clear, at least as far as the intraday perspective goes, right? You're going to look for prices to come into this order block right here, right? Retest order block and then go towards the downside, back to that daily bullish order block at $73,000. Now that's going to be the first setup. Now, this is going to happen by the time you watch this video, probably. But all you would want to look for, like, let's say if something like this has already happened, then, you know, you're kind of late to the move. Then here's what you also need to understand, right? Which is also a common misconception that a lot of new beginners, or like a lot of beginners tend to have when it comes to trading, is that, okay, if you have an initial entry and you miss the initial entry, you feel like you're too late. But let me ask you this question. Assuming that, you know, the order flow of the market is bearish and, you know, your bearish target hasn't been hit yet, or like, just take— even if you don't understand what's order flow, take a look at the market structure, right? As long as the trend continues to be bearish, doesn't it make sense that you could technically, you could sell low and then buy back lower, right? That's kind of the whole premise of shorting the markets. So just because you missed the initial entry doesn't mean that you're going to be late. As long as the order flow remains intact towards the bearish direction, every time you get one of these retracements into some sort of an order block, in this case here, Take a look at this order block, right? Anytime you get a retracement into a newly formed order block, you can still kind of trade it lower, right? There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Just like how we have managed to— like, if you look at yesterday's price action, okay, prices initially pumped, right? Let's say you were one of the people that were looking for that initial pump. What if you miss it? Well, guess what? We still managed to catch a really profitable trade and a very straightforward trade as well by just buying high and then selling higher because we know that, you know, there is a higher target in place similar to this, you know. Order block aside, there are still a bunch of targets down below. And as long as the market structure and order flow is pointing towards that direction, as well as the daily chart, right, as well as the higher timeframe bias, which is a very important factor when it comes to analysis. Ultimately, we want to move in line with the higher timeframe, which again is, if it's something that you struggle with, this is something that Loopring is again built to solve. Because the higher timeframe bias is pointing towards the downside at the moment, then, and the middle timeframe so far is also pointing towards the downside, then we can kind of like just follow along the trend, right? That is kind of the premise of this entire system. It's also what makes this system really really simple and yet still effective. I'm not talking about some super fancy concepts, and yet consistently I've been publicly documenting, you know, my trades. You guys are kind of living proof of this as well, where I would even be willing to bet that you guys watching this channel are one of the most profitable audiences out there. And that's just a natural result of something that happens when, you know, you have a systematic process that just happens to also be profitable and simple. When it's simple, you can do it for a long time and it's sustainable, and, you know, you're not Yeah, you know, I digress. But either way, like so far, because this is a trend trading system, again, you would continue trading towards the downside. Now, in the event that you watch this video early, again, by the time price comes back to $74,000, you can already, you know, start building some sort of a short position down to $73,000. Now, the way that I would approach that is not to just set a limit here, set a stop loss here, and then set a TP here, because that would not even give you like 2R. The way that I would approach it is to utilize the lower timeframe. Which is kind of the whole point of us going into the 5-minute chart in the first place. You want to wait for price to kind of like, okay, once you tap this level, you're going to sweep out all of these relatively equal highs over there, and then you're going to form some sort of bearish CSD, right? Once you form that CSD, that is when you can take advantage, place an entry here, place a stop loss there, and place a target over there. Like similar kind of like direction, but instead of 1R, you're potentially going to get 4R using this move. So just to apply it to this current kind of like principle, like this current example, like let's say this is the order block that like, let's say price has already tapped Into here, right? I'm just painting this picture, right? Hypothesize for a moment that this is happening later. Price taps into the fair value gap. Sorry, price taps into the order block on the one hourly chart. Okay, and then you wait for a CSD. The CSD happens here. Once it happens, okay, boom! You place your entry here, place your stop there, and then you place your target wherever, right? Doesn't have to be seventy three thousand dollars. Usually I just target for two R, and that's kind of what I recommend for you as well, especially if you're kind of like new to the market. Because like you know what, I'm not going to get into too long a story with two R, but just understand that. This is what you would do. So yeah, anyways, let's also take a look at Ethereum real quick to see, you know, if there is a different kind of like setup on Ethereum. And so far, based on what I can see, like Ethereum is looking to break lower as well. So Ethereum's setup could be a little bit more straightforward compared to Bitcoin because right now you have not yet gotten a candle close beneath 2,311. So right now the setup is get a candle close beneath this, come back into the order block, and boom, off you go. Obviously you don't just set a limit here. The key is once you come back into that 1-hourly level at around around a key timing zone, which in our case is going to be 7 AM to 10 AM New York, then we're going to still look for that CSD towards the downside, right? Again, exactly what I showed you on Bitcoin before you jump into a trade, right? There's absolutely no point coming down into the 5-minute chart if you're just going to place a trade based on the 1-hourly. You might as well just trade on the 1-hourly, you know, why bother? So, but anyways, if you'd like to get access to this full system that chances are if you're watching this video, you've watched me for a while now and you also understand that this works. Again, you have probably also made money from the system. Yourself. Imagine how much more you would get if you had access to the full operating system instead of just bits and pieces here. Now I try my best to share as much as possible on, you know, these videos, but at the end of the day, BluePrint is a completely different experience. If that sounds interesting to you, click the first link below. We close in 4 days, but otherwise I'll see you guys later on X for any trade updates. Ciao ciao.