In this YouTube video, Xuan—who claims a 75% win rate over 230+ tracked Bitcoin trades—breaks down a high‑probability short trade for the day. He explains that Mondays act as the week’s opening range and are inherently more unpredictable, so he treats them like an extended weekend and waits for clearer signals. Using ICT concepts (Accumulation‑Manipulation‑Distribution, CSD) and his own AMD framework, he focuses on the Asia session range, identifying the Asia high at ~63,900 as a liquidity‑draw level. If that level is taken out, a sweep above it would fill a fair‑value gap and set up a manipulation leg that could lead to a short entry, with stop‑loss and profit targets (2‑3R) defined. He outlines an invalidation scenario (price making higher highs/lows) and an alternative ABC setup (accumulation, breakout, continuation) that would turn the area below 63,150 into a bearish order block. Xuan also mentions the timing of news events (orange‑folder vs. red‑folder) and suggests watching the London and early New York sessions for the decisive move. The video ends with a promotion for his paid bootcamp and an invitation to follow his real‑time trade updates on X.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Bitcoin today looks like it's setting up for a textbook A+ setup and we are going to take full advantage of this. I'm going to break it all down as to what I'm looking for later on in this video. Before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube for the last year and a half, and so far I'm at about a 75% win rate across 230+ tracked trades. So the only thing that matters for you is that if you're here right now, you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right just a little bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with that out of the way though, Let's get into the overall Bitcoin trade for today. Now, so far, the daily bias has now set up beautifully. If you remember one thing that I said yesterday, and this is something that I would really love for you guys to take away on Mondays, it's just that Mondays in general is like the opening range of the week. Now, if that sounds like gibberish to you, just understand that Monday tends to be a lot more unpredictable compared to days like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. But the same reason where if you know anything about ICT concepts, we would usually skip the Asia session, and then we would look for, for example, right now I'm going to be looking for London/New York to be trading above the Asia session, right? Because this is going to be manipulation above, like basically because we're looking for a short today, any type of movement above the Asia high is going to be tricking people that don't otherwise know about it to be like, oh yeah, the market's pumping. Oh yeah, look at this breakout retest and let me buy. And funny thing is they're going to buy here and price is going to literally go the other way because the market tends to go with accumulation, manipulation, and distribution depending on what the daily bias is. So if we take a look at Monday from the perspective of AMDX, then Monday is the accumulation. It's like, it's not to say that it's completely untradeable. It's like if you have the option of waiting for the manipulation leg or waiting for the distribution leg, you're in a very good position. In fact, you're in a very advantageous position compared to people that have to kind of make a bet, right, and take a gamble on which direction this is going to be based on Now, there are things that we can do to kind of stack the odds in our favor, right? That's not to say like Asia is horrible. It's just you need to know how to trade it and you need to know, like, you need to set the right expectations when it comes to the Asia session. But still, it doesn't change the fact that it can be a little bit more unpredictable in the sense where if you take a look at yesterday, everything was pointing towards some sort of bullish trade. And that was the idea that I had in mind as well. And if you guys recall, based on the video that I had yesterday, it's basically, okay, we have a confirmed CSD. Well, guess what? Now we also need price to just basically at least close above this level right here before the start of New York session, and then we can like really get into it. But otherwise, a retracement into here, but you still need to see just, you know, some sort of willingness to go up. Well, ultimately we did not have either one of that because price literally just kind of dumped, which is fine, right? And I've already pointed out the fact that on Mondays, a lot of the times the technicals could align beautifully, right? You could have a picture-perfect, for example, bullish order flow, bullish order block, right? It's picture-perfect, right? But it just does not play out because It's Monday, and this is a prime example of a low probability day where just because things tend to like kind of align on the technicals does not mean that it's still going to be an amazing day for trading simply because the environment that you're operating in is lower probability and it's more likely to kind of like chop you out or just fake you out. Way better thing to do is to treat Mondays like an extended weekend. Saturday, Sunday, Monday— those are the 3 non-trading days for me, at least most of the time. And you come back on Tuesday once Monday has kind of set the tone, right? Now if you want to think about it, they has now created created the Asia range. And so far, this is a very bearish daily bias. You are at the moment on the lower time frame coming back up into the Asia high, right? And so right now you have the opportunity to wait for either a sweep of the Asia high— which, sorry, not either, like, I will definitely be looking for a sweep of the Asia high, um, although I cannot really predict this considering I'm recording this video pretty early today. One thing that I will definitely look at though is this weak high over here above the Asia level. This is at 63,900. I believe this will be the draw on liquidity. If that gets taken out and then you start seeing a movement towards the downside, especially with a CSD, this will most likely become entry, stop loss, and we're going to take profit at 2 or 3R depending on, you know, what targets we take later. But that is going to be the setup. In fact, once you sweep above that level right there, you're going to fill in this fair value gap. So you are potentially setting up for some sort of an internal range liquidity Towards external range liquidity type of move, and that is going to be what you're looking for today. Now the other thing is, remember I talked earlier about AMD? Well, guess what? You have the Asia range. This is going to be Asia range high, and the reason why we're considering the Asia range high instead of Asia range low is because the daily bias is bearish. We're supposed to be looking for shorts today. On the day where you look for shorts, you want to look for price to sweep above the Asia high, ideally take out some sort of a key level, and ideally even fill in some sort of an hourly PD array. This sets up perfectly for a manipulation leg followed by distribution during the New York session. So that's what we're going to be. Looking for as far as today goes. If we take a look at news today, we have orange folder news at 10 AM. So most likely, most likely— now I'm not saying like orange folder news has the same amount of weight as red folder news, but still, if there is one time that we look for some sort of a move to happen, probably the hour before news to the hour after news, which means 9 AM all the way up to 11 AM New York is going to be— again, I don't want to say this definitively, and I only started looking at orange folder news because apparently Trump speaking is considered orange folder news. It's not like You know, it's not big enough to be red folder, and yet the market reacts as though it is red folder news. I don't make the rules. So yeah, might as well just take a take a quick glance at when the red folder news happens. But either way, like essentially you're looking for the sweep sometime during London. If it doesn't happen during London, you're going to look for this sometime during the New York morning, basically 7 a.m. to 10 a.m., and you're going to look for a breakdown that is going to be the trade that you look for. Which by the way, if you'd like to not only gain access to all of my trades, speak with me in real time as these trades are happening to kind of pick my brain and pick the thought process, get access to all of my other trades as well, plus learn the system for yourself, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below and just join bootcamp. Because half the people that join bootcamp end up becoming full-time traders, basically. And I would love for you to also have the ability to become a full-time trader. But with that out of the way though, like, the invalidation scenario for today— and you know I love to talk about this because it's never a good idea to just like kind of buy into a certain idea and just kind of get married to that idea— obviously, if today price just continues making 5-minute high highs, higher lows, and just really bullish order flow towards the upside, well, guess what? We're not going to be looking for any sort of a short. Now, there is one other scenario that I feel like is important to talk about, which is a potential ABC setup. Now, I gave you the A+ setup over here, right? This is the AMD— accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Now, the other thing that could potentially happen from this point onwards is what is known as an ABC— basically accumulation, breakout, and continuation. Essentially, if price just continues to dump from this point onwards without taking out the Asian high, without taking out the liquidity 19 level. And you just like, basically, if you manage to get a candle close, like by the time you watch this video, basically, if you get a candle close beneath 63,150, then you are basically like, this entire thing here is going to become a bearish order block, which means you take advantage of this bearish order block in order to trade this towards the downside. And this is going to be known as an accumulation, right? You break out sometime during the London or the New York, and then you are going to give a continuation. So in the event that something like this happens, again, I cannot predict what the market is going to do like a few hours in advance. I can give you A couple of high probability scenarios, and notice how both of these scenarios are going to be pointing towards the short side. But at the end of the day, I don't know what's going to happen. If this happens, you know exactly what to do. If this happens, you know exactly what to do. And that's the point of these videos, which by the way, I will be posting any trade updates on X. So feel free to just follow me there if you would like to get access to my trade updates. If I jump into any trades or whatever, like I'm going to be updating it there. But otherwise, I'm going to see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.
