Watch this before CPI!!

12 Jul 2023 · 1 min

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In this market commentary, the speaker warns that Bitcoin may head lower ahead of the upcoming CPI release. He bases this bearish outlook on a surprising ADP report showing nearly 500,000 private‑sector jobs added in June—far above expectations—which pushed Treasury yields higher. The rise in yields signals that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep tightening monetary policy through further rate hikes and quantitative tightening, draining liquidity from markets. The speaker argues that tighter monetary conditions, higher borrowing costs, and a defensive investor stance are all negative for Bitcoin, making the current price action uncertain but leaning toward a potential decline.

Chapters

Bitcoin, and there is a chance this week that we might start heading down. There is only really one confirmation that I have for this to happen. It doesn't really have much to do with price action because right now price action is unclear as to whether Bitcoin is going to dump or not. So we have to look at this piece of information to make our decision. So basically, an ADP report revealed a significant addition of almost 500,000 private sector jobs in June, which was more than double the expected amount. This increase led to a rise in Treasury yields, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might continue its rate hike campaign. Essentially, when the Fed is hiking the rates, it's called quantitative tightening. As that name would suggest, it means that the economy is essentially getting tightened. Money is flowing out of the markets, people are more defensive, loans get more expensive, whatever. All you need to know is that this is a bearish sign.