WHAT IS NEXT FOR BITCOIN? - Market Update 5/7
In this market update, the speaker addresses the current 20‑30% retracement in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, arguing that the bull run is not over but is still within a typical 90‑120 day correction phase. He references his prior predictions (Bitcoin dropping to $60K) and explains why the current price range around $50‑$54K likely represents a generational entry point. The video compares this cycle to previous bull runs, describing it as a "supercycle" with longer retracements and fewer rapid pumps. Altcoins are noted to be down 60‑70% from their highs, adding to market anxiety. The speaker offers trading psychology advice—emphasizing patience, conviction, and avoiding bottom‑picking—alongside concrete entry criteria, a disciplined dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) approach, and a rule of limiting oneself to one trade per day to preserve dry powder. He illustrates these concepts with personal examples (e.g., ENS, Pendle, LDO, WIF) and explains market volatility cycles and fair‑value gaps. The video concludes with a disclaimer that this is not financial advice, a promotional plug for a paid service/masterclass, and calls to like, subscribe, and follow his Twitter handle.
Chapters
What's up everybody? In this video, we're going to talk about Bitcoin. Obviously, with what's happening to Bitcoin and the entire crypto markets at the moment, as you can see, it's pretty much red across the board. It leads many to wonder, is this bull market over? Is it time to sell and get out and wait for another 2 years before the next bull market comes back? Or is there still hope for crypto in general? And if there is, then what levels should we be looking at? If you've been feeling a lot of doubt and a lot of uncertainty throughout this 20-25% retracement and you're wondering what to do, then this video is probably going to help you guys out. Without any further ado, let's dive right into the video. So just looking at Bitcoin, I did talk about the fact that I was expecting to see Bitcoin back at $60K before, you know, any future movements, and that has indeed happened. So I posted on Twitter back on the 11th of June when Bitcoin was still pretty much at $70K that I expected Bitcoin to be down at $60K before, you know, anything else. And I was expecting the range to basically continue for at least another month, and so far we are still within that month. And by the way, if you guys want the latest updates on the market, then make sure you follow me on Twitter because I can't necessarily film a market update Video every time, but I can definitely share my thoughts on Twitter anytime. So that has already happened, and then and right after that, and I predicted the fact that we will stay in another range on Bitcoin at around range low levels. Well, clearly I was wrong on that. You win some, you lose some. I'm going to start this video off by saying that I'm not bearish on Bitcoin. I don't believe the bull market is over. If anything, we're still within the three to four month retracement period that I mentioned right at the start of the retracement when we were about sixty days and thirty days in. So currently we have spent about one hundred and thirteen days either retracing from the previous all-time high slash. Forming some kind of range. And for those of you who are new to a bull market, or for those of you who are new to crypto in general, one thing you need to understand about major macro movements on any asset pair is that they tend to occur over the course of 90 to 120 days. And at the moment, we are still very much in line with that projection at the moment. And I do believe that there's not really much cause for concern. This is just one of those 25-30% retracements that tend to happen throughout the course of a bull run. This time around, it's happening much less often compared to the 2021 bull run. And in the 2021 bull run, bull run, it happened much less often compared to the 2017 bull run. So with every subsequent bull run, these major, major retracements tend to not happen as much. And also this cycle has been very much different from the previous cycles in the sense that we have never ever had a new Bitcoin all-time high prior to the halving before. So this is a first. So this leads me to believe that this cycle is what many would call a supercycle, where things are a lot more extended. Things don't happen as quickly. Retracements and pumps, they last much longer, which also means that your patience is going to be tested throughout the course of this bull run. And at the moment, This is one of those events. Now, even though I don't believe that the bull run is over, we still need to touch on the fact that, you know, majority of altcoins are down about 60 to 70% from their current bull run highs. And that is definitely a cause of concern for many. And so I have a level that I'm looking at on Bitcoin, which is at around $50.5K. This is what I would believe to be very close to the bottom. So just to put it into perspective, this would be around a 30% retracement, which in the context of a bull run is a very significant retracement. I've made a post about this before, but just to run you through some statistics. Every time the coin has gone through more than a 20% retracement in a bull run, which in the last bull run it happened 8 times. Now I can't pull any figures up right now, but you just gotta take my word on it. That has led to the markets forming either a new high, frequently altcoins generating returns anywhere between 3x to 5x and potentially even 10x. So the last time we saw this was back here. It was a 13-day, 21% retracement, which led Bitcoin to form its new all-time high. And you guys, you guys have been in crypto at least since the start of this year. You know exactly what happened to altcoins throughout this run. of them went up by 5x and 10x, and in some cases they even went up by 20x. So we get that once more with this 20% retracement, and then this pretty much kickstarted the bull run. So hopefully you guys remember that. And then, and then once more, this was also one of those 20+% retracements, which led to again kickstarting the bull run. So obviously if we're in a bear market, this is not going to work. Like bear markets tend to just go down, like you're not supposed to buy. But given the fact that everything is still happening according to plan from the stuff that I mentioned 3, 4 months ago, and something that we tend to struggle with in cases like this is That we tend to expect things to happen instantaneously, or at least we would like them to, right? It doesn't feel good going through a 4-month retracement or a 4-month range, but the fact of the matter is we are, and market movements take time. The big players need time to accumulate their positions and to stop out as many people as possible. Given the fact that so many people are losing their minds and wondering if the bull run is over is actually a really good sign. Keep the big picture in mind. We've just gone through the halving. We are still within a retracement period of— this is all expected. 20 to 30%. I even called the fact that we were going to go through a 50 to 70% retracement on most altcoins a few months back. So yeah, everything is still following the plan. And I wholeheartedly believe that this area that we're at right now, $54K, $50K, this area, like everybody who buys here are going to just— this area here is just going to be viewed as a generational entry opportunity once we are 3 to 6 months down the line when everything is up about 2 to 3x and potentially more. Now, does it hurt in the short term? Yeah, there's a lot of The people that joined crypto basically in the last four months, well, you're not going to have a really good time. Now sure, there are gains to be had, you know, here and there. For example, I called ENS at about $23, and it went all the way up to $36. And well as Popcat, which pretty much went two to three x from like within a couple of weeks. There is still money to be made. Don't get me wrong, just harder. And for those of you whose bags are in the red right now, all I can say is that just remain patient. Like you're not the only one whose bag is red. A lot of people have red bags at the moment. The only difference. Between the people who are going to finish this bull run with about a 5x to 10x gain on their account and the people who do not is their ability to remain patient for the plans play out, understanding that things take time, understanding that every dip during a bull run is a generational opportunity to make easy money, understanding that during times when your conviction is tested, well, you've got to have conviction. Otherwise, you're just going to end up like the 80 to 90% of people that sell low and eventually come back to buy high. This right here is going to be viewed as the generational opportunity come through six months' time, and for now, the First level that I'm going to be looking at is 50k. Now I have also started to DCA into coins, and one of the pieces of advice that I can give you guys when it comes to market conditions like this, where price just seems to keep falling and falling and falling, the only two ways that you're going to be able to protect your downside during times like this is number one: you want to look for specific entry criteria. It means that you want to see some kind of price action change. So my criteria, for example, is I want to see some kind of market structure shift before I enter and you know ride the wave. I want to see some kind of confirmation. That, you know, stuff is reversing. I don't wanna just catch falling knives. And so whatever that entry criteria is for you, like just apply that and only start DCAing or only start buying into stuff once those entry criteria have been met. Now, the second thing that has helped me immensely, saving me a lot of just concern, fear, doubt, a lot of money as well, is that I limit myself to one play per day. Meaning I were to be DCAing, like for example, yesterday I bought some ENS when it was down and that was the only thing that I bought. I did not buy any other thing. Even though I am very big on Pendle, even though I'm very big on LDO, even though I'm very big on WIF, I only made one play. And I cannot tell you how many times this has saved my ass throughout the course of every bull run that I've been in. It basically prevents me from overexposing myself into terrible market conditions where things are pretty much just free falling. And this also ensures that, you know, at every given condition, I have money to, you know, buy the dip. I have enough dry powder instead of holding onto really big bags and being down like 6 figures. And for those of you who are concerned about, you know, quote unquote missing the bottom, first things first, do not You don't have to catch the bottom in order to make money in a bull run. One of my favorite sayings in all of trading is top pickers and bottom pickers tend to end up becoming cotton pickers because it's just not profitable. Like, sure, it sounds cool to tell people that, hey, you know, I caught the bottom in Bitcoin, but then you have to think about how many trades that you've lost on the way to catching that bottom. How many mistakes did you make? Nobody really talks about that. And also the other thing you need to understand is that things take time to happen. Things don't just, you know, go to the bottom and then immediately just reverse completely fully. It doesn't work that way. You always get, you know, retracements. For example, after ENF, price came into this fair value gap here, just, you know, literally using the example that I have right now. So it came into this fair value gap here. Well, guess what? You were in that fair value gap for about 8 days. And I remember not even buying on the initial move here, but buying once it started showing some signs of movement going up. As I've shown you in Twitter, I bought at about $23. So I did not catch the bottom, and yet I was able to catch a 50% move pretty quickly. And guess what? Once more, price actually did retrace back into some kind of value area before making the next move up. And also, in the grand scheme of things, you haven't even really started to take off yet in terms of ENS. Like, this entire area is basically like a low volume area. And once you actually start breaking above this area, things are going to move really quickly, especially with the ETH ETF potentially getting approved soon. But yeah, not to get distracted from what I was saying before, like, you have time. One thing you need to understand about the markets is that the markets always move from periods of high volatility to low volatility and then high volatility and then low volatility. Basically, it means that once you go through a very significant dump, expect some kind of retracement, right? Expect some kind of range, expect some kind of accumulation to happen before the market actually takes off. And you want— it's never To just wait for like just confirmation from the market that it's starting to go up before you enter. So yeah, to everyone out there, if you can avoid capitulating right now, as long as you can hold onto your bags and have some conviction, I think you're gonna come to not regret that decision about 3 to 6 months' time. Of course, this is not financial advice. All of this is just my opinion. This is just what I am doing and this is what I believe in. Don't take it as gospel. I could very much be wrong in the fact that, you know, this bull market could be over and whatever. At least this is what I'm doing. And at the very least, I do hope that you guys have learned a couple of lessons on how to approach dealing with retracing periods during a bull market, as well as some core principles such as not trying to catch the bottom, not FOMOing, going in one at a time so that you don't overexpose yourself. But other than that, if you guys are having trouble navigating the bull run and not seeming to be making the kind of money that you want to make, and you would just like some help fast-tracking this learning curve as well as getting some assistance so that you end up leaving this bull run making more money than you came in with, then feel free to check out the first link in the description box below. Now don't worry, it's not some $997 course. It's just a website where I tell you how my service might be able to help you solve your problems. Don't worry, you don't have to click. In fact, I don't really mind if you click or not. But for those that this is relevant to, and if you would just like some help solving your problems, then the link is there whenever you feel like clicking on it. But anyways, drop a like if you enjoyed this video. It does truly make my day. Subscribe and make sure you follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto if you don't want to miss any more market updates. And if you want to watch a full-on masterclass on the exact step-by-step trading strategy that I'm using at the moment, feel free to click somewhere on the screen and I'll see you guys there. Bye-bye.
