What The U.S. Gov Shutdown Means For Bitcoin Today
In this solo‑host crypto trading video, the presenter explains how the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data (non‑farm payrolls, unemployment claims, ADP, CPI) that normally drive market moves. Because these releases are delayed, the usual news‑driven volatility window (approximately 7:30 – 10:00 AM New York time) is effectively on hold, so the trader will rely on pure price action within the same "kill zone" timeframe. The core market outlook is a strong daily bullish bias for Bitcoin after a candle closed above $170,000, establishing higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. The presenter identifies a primary support zone between $117,000 and $109,000 that may act as a retracement target. Two intraday scenarios are outlined: (A) a clean breakout above the current order block leading to a momentum‑driven long, and (B) a pull‑back into a fair‑value gap/liquidity sweep that then triggers a long entry once a 5‑minute change of structure confirms the setup. The trader emphasizes a conservative profit target of 2R (with occasional 3R opportunities) and strict risk management, including avoiding multiple correlated positions across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. For Ethereum, the daily bias is also bullish, but the presenter notes a relative weakness versus Bitcoin, suggesting ETH may be better suited for short‑term shorts if conditions change. Solana shows a similar bullish setup with a key daily close above $247 required to validate the next upward move. The video concludes with community engagement reminders (Twitter, comment replies), a caution against over‑trading multiple assets simultaneously, and a brief personal anecdote about being in Korea.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday was a banger. I hope you guys followed me on Twitter because that's where I caught the trade live. I gave you guys the exact entry, I gave you guys the exact TP, and from what I can see, all of you guys managed to, you know, catch a trade. And from a lot of YouTube comments— by the way, I do read every single comment and I do reply to them, so feel free to engage inside the YouTube comments. Just know that I am there with you. And from what I've seen, like, a lot of people managed to take the trade Anyways, that marks the 111th win out of the last 139 trades. If you're new to this channel, just know that you're probably in the right place because if I'm maybe right, one of them then are wrong. But anyways, it's time to get into the call for today. And let me tell you one thing, the setup for today is going to be much clearer compared to yesterday. I'm actually going to be able to make a proper, clear, concise call. So yeah, yeah, let's dive into it. So before we even dive into the charts, the first thing that we're going to need to address And to potentially talk about is going to be the fact that there is not going to be news, or at least news is going to be put kind of on hold until otherwise stated. The reason for this is that the U.S. government has well they're going through a bit of a shutdown at the moment. They're going through a bit of a crisis, and because of that, there are certain pieces of news such as non-farm payroll, which in this case unemployment claims, ADP, you have CPI. All of these are very dependent on the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I don't remember exactly what the bureau is, but it's dependent on the federal government posting that data so that the Federal Reserve is able to, you know, make the announcement, make the statement. Problem is, right now the US government is going through a shutdown, and so these departments are not currently in operation. And so originally the news would have hit today, I believe, like 8:30 AM or potentially like 10:00 AM. I don't exactly remember. We're still going to be basing our trades off of that timing window. like between the hours of 7:30 AM to 10:00 AM. But just understand that we're in a very rare situation at the moment, like the US government is in a shutdown. And so we're going to keep that in mind as we head into today. But just understand that so far we are still going to be trading within the same time window. Reason being, 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM is still the New York kill zone. And usually the hours between 7:30 to 10:00 AM, potentially even if you want to narrow it down, the hours between 7:30 to 9:30 is still going to be the key kind of like hotspot timing. that we can hunt for trades. But first things first, starting things off on the weekly chart— sorry, the daily chart— is that we got a candle close yesterday above $170,000. That is the most amazing piece of news that has come this whole week so far. Just understand that now that this has happened, we are now like without a shadow of a doubt, we are now bullish in terms of the daily chart. Because initially, like, we got an initial changes to delivery over here back on Monday. Where that was the point where I would have been like, okay, um, now we can start looking for a long, but we still got to be cautious until this level is taken out. This level was taken out yesterday, and not only taken out, but it was closed through. So this is looking really bullish so far in Bitcoin. I am having less and less reason to believe that, you know, price is indeed going to go towards the downside. Of course, if you zoom out even further, you can go infinitely just trying to justify that, hey, this is a bearish order block, and yeah, we're going to go back to the downside. But the truth is, if you take a look at the weekly chart so far, we are very bullish in the sense that this is higher highs and higher lows. And until these higher lows are taken out, we have again zero indication that the market structure is going to shift to the downside. We have zero indication that the market is going to go down. And so there comes a point in time where you got to find the balance between, all right, you may believe that Bitcoin is going to go down, you may believe that Bitcoin's a bit overpriced at the moment, But until the chart actually shows you that, hey, you are right, guess what? You probably shouldn't be acting on those beliefs. Anyways, not going to lie, sitting cross-legged like this is pretty exhausting on the back. So I'm just going to lean back real quick. Man, you really wonder how the people in the past, especially the Koreans and the Japanese, how they managed to sit in this— I think it's called seiza position, lotus position— for so long. I've been doing this for like 5 minutes and I'm already exhausted. Probably I just don't have the right technique. Or perhaps I'm just one of those gym dudes that's super inflexible and Like not able to sit in this position for long. But anyways, going down, going back down now, this entire you know block right here starting from $117,000 down to $109,000 is going to act as our support level in the event that we retrace back into it, which I do think that we are likely to retrace back into it starting next week. Now moving down into the one hourly chart again, we have kind of established the fact that we are now looking for longs. So And before I remove that level, let me just mark out this bearish order block that got taken out so that in the event that we retrace back into here today, I do think that it's unlikely that we are going to be able to find support on that level. So there are two ways, like, yeah, there are two ways that I'd see price playing out today, or just two kind of like setups that I see for today. The first of which is you break out from this point onwards without giving any sort of retracement to the downside. This is also valid. It's exactly what we used yesterday in order to catch the trade where We just completely broke out, and then once that new order block got put into place, like this one right here, this was the order block that was formed between 6 AM to 8 AM. And then if you can go back to my Twitter, the the time that I would have entered was let's see here exactly at 9:54 PM Korea time. So I was actually in the trade starting at 9 AM. So yeah, the order block was actually this one, and once price broke above it. Validated the order block. Boom, momentum trade. That was an easy 3R opportunity. Uh, we managed to get 3R, like more than the usual 2R that we get, but I think if we held the trade for longer, I think that would have ended up being a 10R trade. Congratulations if you did, you managed to get a 10R trade. Just not part of the trading that I do. It's not the style of trading that I do, so I kind of avoid that. But today, same thing here. Like if you manage to close above this level, this will validate this as a potential order block, and you can just kind of use this to ride a momentum trade towards the upside. Now, given that the US government is going through kind of sketchy period right now, we are going to play it safe and not be too aggressive with our profits. So while I would like to say that, well, originally if we had news today and if we had news tomorrow, this would've been quite an interesting week because you have news from Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday to Friday, which means that chances are with how bullish everything is looking like, you still have a lot more room to go to the upside. But with the US government Yeah, you know, now that the news is kind of off the table temporarily, this puts us in a little bit of a precarious situation. And so that's why, taking into account the current market conditions, we're going to just take our profit at 2R. We're not going to aim for some stupid ridiculous target like 120 or like a new all-time high. Again, we're just going to get our 2R and get out. That's going to be the game plan for today. So that is scenario 8. Like, if this happens between the hours of like 7:00 AM, 7:30 AM to about 8:30 AM, Then that is what I'm going to be going for. Of course, feel free to follow me on Twitter at underscore the art of crypto. I'm going to leave the link in the description box down below. That is where I'll if I post any live trades or whatever, that's where you're going to be able to find me. And yeah, just follow along the trades. I would like to I would like to assume or at least I would like to think that you guys are some of the most profitable followers of any crypto channel out there. Just the fact that we've got a pretty you know publicly good track record so far, plus the fact that I just see a lot of you guys manage to catch good trades. Honestly, at this point, I may be able to just Make a wall of testimonials. Like, hey, print your tweets out, just stick it behind here. That'll be the— that'll be the background. I know, honestly, how cool is this, by the way? Like, how cool is this? I can't get enough of this. Having such a good time here in Korea so far. If you guys are ever looking into coming over to Seoul, I do recommend it. It is— it's genuinely one of the cleanest cities I've ever seen, and I say this after being to Japan for like a pretty decent amount of time. And also, the vibe of the city is just great. Like, you still get that big city energy, but it's chill. People are chill, and the cafe culture and the food here. Oh, the food! Anyways, I digress. Going back into just getting back into the topic. Also, scenario B, which is a retracement. Essentially, right now, you have left behind kind of like a strong low, but it's still some kind of liquidity level followed by a fair value gap. So, in the event that you retrace back into this fair value gap, you're going to sweep out this liquidity, and that's going to give you the conditions needed for price to pump. So. You look for this also to happen between the hours of 7:00 AM, 7:30 AM up to 8:30 AM. Of course, I will keep you guys posted on Twitter if I see anything interesting happening. But essentially, once this happens, everyone's going to be tricked into thinking that, oh no, the market's going to go down, at which point the market's going to reverse. Why? Because we have a bullish daily bias so far, and we've got— but we're looking pretty bullish in terms of high time frame. And so whatever lower time frame decisions that we make, we reflect that higher time frame bias. This is how we avoid getting, you know, caught up in like changing our bias or changing our direction just because of a few 5-minute candles. I've made a video about this actually recently, like feel free to— I'm going to link it somewhere in the description box. If you struggle with like, let's say you're bullish and then all of a sudden 5-minute on a 5-minute chart it turns bearish and then you just flip your bias, you lose your confidence, that video is going to really help you. But otherwise, um, again, we're going to be looking for this for a long And of course, the condition that we want to see for a long is not just to set a limit here, set the stop loss here, and just, you know, pray for the best. There is a difference between what we think is likely to happen in the market versus when they actually happen. And for that to happen, you want to look for some kind of 5-minute change in certain delivery. Essentially, you want to look for that order block come into here, and boom, that's going to be your entry, stop, and your TP. Notice how the hypothetical, you know, entry here is going to be, you know, little bit shorter or kind of similar to this fair value gap right here. The only difference is that with this trade right here, you are entering after— only after the market has given you confirmation that your thesis is indeed correct. And you're not just operating from perspective of like, okay, this is what you think is going to happen, and so you're going to act on it without confirmation from the market. So that's going to be scenario number 2. And of course, like, there is also a possibility that things could go just a tiny bit lower than what I'm anticipating. So In the event that you retrace all the way to the 117,500, we're going to be looking for the exact same setup. It doesn't matter if price is going to come all the way to here. We are not looking to trade this short. We're looking for price to retrace into this level where we eventually wait for that 5-minute change in delivery at around the timing that I've mentioned. And from that point onwards, we're looking to take a long. Again, this is all rooted in the higher timeframe direction and the higher timeframe bias. Like, the more you can respect it, the more success you're going to have, because then you'll actually be trading in the direction of The trend. Now, this can all be invalidated if we get a candle close beneath 160,750. So in the event that this happens, then yeah, you know, like today's just going to be no trade. Then yeah, it is what it is. Sometimes you get no trades, and especially because today's kind of like a sketchy day in terms of news, could happen. Although I think the possibility is pretty, pretty low. Anyways, let's hang to take a look at Ethereum. So if you remember what I said about Ethereum yesterday. I said that Ethereum would be the ideal option if you want to go for a short trade. But yesterday we did not end up getting the short confirmations, and so yesterday ended up being a pretty bullish day for Ethereum. Ethereum is going to be the exact same story because we got a bullish daily close yesterday. We are just going to be looking for retracements into either this order block right here or this order block right here, which price is currently already inside. And from this point onwards, yeah, just looking for longs between the hours of you know, 7:30 to about 9:30. Pretty straightforward. There is one coin that I would potentially, you know, kind of pay attention to. I think I would lean more towards Bitcoin compared to ETH, but they're both valid in their own ways. Bitcoin, the only reason why I'm leaning more towards that for a long is because like in terms of the daily chart, you have just broken through 2 huge— I don't wanna say huge, but like you've broken through 2 bearish order blocks very confidently and very convincingly. So this leads me to believe that at the moment Bitcoin has more strength compared to Ethereum. And I think this can also be reflected so far on the Ethereum-Bitcoin chart where you're kind of printing a heads and shoulders pattern and price kind of breaking lower. So far the trend for Ethereum against Bitcoin is still bearish. This could change of course, but until this changes, just understand that Bitcoin is the stronger pair when it comes to going long and Ethereum is going to be the better pair when it comes to going short, at least for now. This is probably also going to be reflected with Bitcoin dominance where actually Bitcoin dominance is actually pretty low, but It has been trending up slightly higher over the last couple of— yeah, it has been trending higher ever since a couple of weeks ago. Bitcoin dominance is still on the downfall, so it's only a matter of time until, you know, altcoins come back and have their time. Just for now, it's not that time yet. So Solana is also having some really great news in the sense that yesterday I mentioned that this was going to be bearish resistance until proven otherwise. That is now proven otherwise. So now that this has been like completely closer, essentially price is just going to be retracing into this new level of support here, and it's now going up. Now ideally though, before you jump— like, before you jump to conclusions and be like, oh yeah, you know, uh, let's go all in on Solana or whatever— ideally you still want to see a close on the daily chart above $247. This is the exact same situation that we had on Bitcoin, where once this gets closed above, whoa, okay, like, there is nothing stopping Solana from that point onwards. But so I think there is a bit of an opportunity between where price currently is now Until you get to that bearish order block starting at $234. So from this point onwards, I think you can still trade this towards the long side. And especially because we got a bullish daily bias yesterday, and especially because Solana is looking quite strong at the moment, at least more so than Ethereum, the setup for today is going to be pretty simple as well. It's going to be the exact same as Bitcoin where scenario A, you get a close above, validate this as the bullish order block, and that is going to be your entry. Versus B, you come down into this bullish order block right here, sweep out this liquidity right here, and then boom, you go to the upside. Either way, the daily bias, the weekly bias, everything is pointing Towards the upside, you focus on longs. The only word of caution that I would give you is to not like if you decide to take the Bitcoin trade, do not take any other. You don't take ETH and SOL at the same time because ultimately, if Bitcoin starts falling or if Bitcoin starts pumping randomly, Ethereum and you know Solana are just going to follow, which means that this is the exact same trade, but just with a different brand name, right? It's essentially the same instant noodles. One of them is just called Bitcoin. One of them is called Ethereum. One of them is called Solana. If you end up eating three packets of instant noodles. In a day, I'm sure some of you do, but just hypothetical here. Probably wouldn't be good for you, right? Everything in moderation. So just understand that if you open multiple trades at the same time, you're just you're just putting yourself at risk in the event that one loses. You're probably going to lose all three at the same time, and that's just going to lead to a big hit to your account. So yeah, trade responsibly. You know, use protection, play it safe, and I'll catch you guys on Twitter later. Ciao ciao.
