What you NEED to know before trading Bitcoin this week

Right guys, welcome back to another video. The editor is finally back on break. I am back on break. And yeah, let's get into the video. Starting things off with the weekly bias, we have a bearish one so far. Like nothing has changed about the weekly bias. We are just going to be looking for more shorts heading into this week. And one thing to understand is that the last couple of weeks has been incredibly rough for the system because I think, I think I'm currently on like a losing streak of like 4 in a row at the moment, which is not great. And I genuinely do not remember Now, based on the data that I have over the past year when I've been publicly documenting all of my trades, I have not yet had a losing streak of more than 3 in a row since February of last year, which means like in the last 12 months. And mind you, so far my public track record has been about a 75% win rate. So the fact that this is like, yeah, it just goes to show you that this is a rough time to be using the system at the moment. But if there's one lesson that I can definitely share with you in regards to, you know, when you deal with tough times like this. Now, if there's a lesson that I can impart to you, it's that whenever you run into tough moments like this, there are 2 things that you need to ask yourself. Well, like, there are 2 things that would be incredibly good to ask yourself. Firstly, are you in this kind of losing streak, or are you in this kind of tough period because of stuff that you are doing? For example, you're just not being disciplined, you're not being patient, you're not following the system, right? It's like a human error, right? It's a you error. And the second thing is market conditions. Right? For example, this trading system that we are using here to get a 75% win rate across the last year is primarily a trend trading system, which also makes sense. If you take a look at the chart right now, it's been ranging for the past 2 weeks. So it is also to be expected that in a ranging environment, a trend trading system is not gonna perform as well. So in this very moment, I would say we're definitely closer to the second scenario rather than the first one. And when you're dealing with, you know, just cases where, all right, the market conditions doesn't quite fit your system, then there's nothing you really need to change, right? You still execute the system as is because system fundamentally has nothing wrong. It's just market conditions. So in this case, like, it's not that, oh yeah, the system sucks or whatever. It's just, you know, a bad couple of weeks, which is very normal on any trading system. Like, anyone who tries to tell you that there is a quote-unquote best trading system or like a trading system that could, you know, trade trends, it could trade ranges, it could trade scalping, it could trade swing trading, whatever, right? This kind of like all-in-one system. When you try to optimize for everything, at the end of the day, you optimize for nothing. So don't believe that. And yeah, now let's get into the actual analysis. So starting things off on the weekly chart, we already established that we are bearish, which means that in the event that we go above the weekly open, we're going to be looking for sells. Although technically, like, the weekly bearish bias target has already been hit on day 1 of the weekly open. Basically, like, when you're biased for the week, you are going to be looking for previous weekly lows. And so far, that's already been hit. So who knows, this might be the start of a big comeback. And there is definitely precedent, and there is definitely a reason for for that to happen. The first of which is the fact that you have just swept the range low of the range that we've been forming over the last couple of weeks. Right now, the range high remains untapped, right? There are a couple of relatively equal lows on the range high. So in the event that today, you know, we manage to close bullish, or heck, tomorrow, if we manage to close bullish, we could go against the weekly bias and look for a long towards the range high. Because right now, we've just been waiting for price to either sweep the range low or the range high. The most dangerous place to be in when you're in a range, like the most dangerous place to be trading from when you're in a range, is when you're in the middle. Right? The head coach at AOC, one of his favorite sayings is, don't diddle in the middle, because the middle is where most people get chopped up. The middle is where the market makers trick you into thinking, oh yeah, there's something happening, and they force you to get into the middle. What ends up happening is that, okay, yeah, price is going down. Oh yeah, breakout, whatever, right? People start getting in a bit too impatiently without knowing that when you're in a range, the premium exists above the range high and the discount exists below the range low. Which means that you're supposed to be looking to buy once range lows have been swept, and you're looking to sell once range highs have been swept. It's not in the middle. It's not like, oh yeah, the price is under the 50%, so yeah, it's a breakout trade. No, in this case, you're just selling low, expecting to buy back lower, which is a less profitable strategy compared to selling high and then buying low. But anyways, I digress. The main thing to keep in mind here is that we've been waiting for either one of these levels to be hit because we understand, and I've mentioned this multiple times throughout the last couple of weeks, when you're in a range, you don't want to be taking trades here. You want to be taking trades here. And you want to be taking trades here. So now that this has been taken, we have an opportunity where we can just, you know, just go back to the range high basically. And the other characteristic of a range that you need to understand is that when price is in a range, it tends to want to stay in a range, just like how when it's trending, it tends to want to stay in the trends, right? It's just momentum, you know, like laws of physics. Now I know that laws of physics don't necessarily apply to trading, but in general, right, price is in a range, you will continue to stay in a range until you get a solid breakout. So what I was anticipating, or rather one of the things that I mentioned in Blueprint today, and by the way, like on trading days, I do send an early analysis as well as do a bit of live trading with the Blueprint guys. Now, one of the things that I mentioned this morning is that yes, we are sweeping below the daily range low, but we have no idea if it's going to be a range deviation or if it's going to be a breakout. Now, when it comes to a breakout, you want to see price not, you know, kind of do a V-shaped recovery. You want to see price kind of like hang around the bottom here and then for a second move to continue. And the event that we get a V-shaped recovery, well, obviously you know where that's going to go. So far, based on what we're seeing on price action, it seems to be more of a V-shaped type of move so far. Now, is this a move that we can take advantage of? Not necessarily, because one of the core tenets of the system is that, you know, we ideally want the 1-hourly order flow to be in line with the daily bias. So far, the daily bias is bearish, and so far on the 1-hourly order flow, you are bearish because you have just gotten the CSD on both sides. Now, this could change though, like Ultimately, like this trade at the moment, if your system is one that takes advantage of ranges and, you know, you are going for the reversal, basically sweep the range low and then, you know, just go long from there, then this is absolutely a great time for you to take a trade. Now, following my system though, that like this level needs to be closed above on the 1-hour chart before there is even a trade. So yeah, today's probably, again, like this is primarily a trend trading system. I can see the merit in taking this trade. Because I'll trade a range trading systems before. Technically, this is where you would want to go look for a long. So I'm just going to give this advice in the from the perspective of if you are trading a you know kind of like range trading system. If you want to get in on this, then I think ideally you're going to want to look for well there are two plays possible for today. One is you draw a fib from high to low. Sorry, from low to high wherever you know that new high is. Now seeing the fifty percent line right now, I don't think we're going to. You know, kind of retrace that far back. But in the event that you do, then that's going to be an opportunity for you to take advantage of. This is at the moment the order block that you're looking at. So in the event that you retrace into this, touching the true London maybe, and then in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, that's going to be an opportunity for you to get in on a long towards that side. Now, alternative number 2 is you're just going to want to look for price to show these types of reactions at the key timing zones. Ultimately, one thing that people don't really think about is that price is not just the Y-axis, right? The Y-axis is price, but then there's also the X-axis, which is time. What price does at specific timings matters a lot. So in between the hours of 7 to 10, if you start getting a sweep of this low right here, and then you see a 5-minute CSD towards the upside, then that's going to be the second possible play. Now, depending on how price changes within the next couple of hours until we head into the New York open, there might be a possibility where price just retraces into this order block and then it takes off from there, right? It's a possibility. By the way, like if you're trading a range trading system, you're gonna be looking for a long. If you're trading my system, which is a trend trading system, You're probably not going to be looking to trade today. Or maybe if you do want to take this, like, feel free to go half risk. It's purely like, it is definitely valid. One of the other things to talk about is news, right? Today we don't have news and we're going to have news tomorrow. We're going to have news Thursday. We're going to have news Friday. Also, one other thing to keep in mind in regards to, you know, the news this week is that there's been a lot of uncertainty in the world going on right now with wars and, you know, just a whole lot of events, tariff rulings, whatever. The key thing to understand here is none of this is going to show up on Forex Factory, but those, you know, macro— that's not even like macroeconomics anymore. It's more like geopolitics. This geopolitical news, these geopolitical pieces of news are going to move the markets in some kind of meaningful way. You're seeing that kind of play out in terms of gold, where, you know, gold is an asset where during times of uncertainty, people do tend to just load up on it. And you're seeing this, it's going to have ripple effects throughout, you know, the rest of the markets. One thing's for sure, I'm definitely going to be active on Twitter. I'm going to be active here on YouTube. Keeping you guys up to date because if there's one thing for sure, traders profit off of volatility. And volatility often comes when there is a catalyst. In this case, it is bad world events, which I know, like in an ideal world, none of this would happen. But now that it's happened, this is the best time to be traders because that's going to lead to volatility. And as long as price is moving, it doesn't matter if it's up or down. That's where traders thrive. Past couple of weeks on Bitcoin has been absolutely horrendous because, well, Yeah, the price is just kind of setting up for a secondary move. So yeah, at the moment, TLDR, kind of like a conclusion, is that I do think that we have a pretty high chance that this is going to be some sort of range deviation, and then we're going to go back towards the upside. The thing is, knowing what's going to happen or like having an opinion on what's going to happen versus this thing matching versus this scenario matching all of the conditions in our system and creating a valid trade setup are 2 completely different things. As a trader, it's like super simple if you really think about it. When all of the conditions of your system are checked, You take a trade regardless of how you feel, no matter how uncertain you may be, how doubtful you might be of the trade. Oh yeah, maybe there's liquidity here, it's going to stop you out. Doesn't matter. As long as your conditions of the system are met, you take the trade. On the flip side of things, if the— like, it doesn't matter how good price looks, as long as it doesn't fit the conditions of your system, you don't take it. And that's how you ultimately become a consistent trader. Anybody can make some money in the markets, right? You see, like for example, I talked about this range deviation setup. All right, you're going to jump in, then you're going to make some money. Cool. Are you able to do that consistently day in, day out for a few years? That's a whole different story. And what I just shared is the recipe to getting to that point. And by the way, I'm just curious if this is something that you might be interested in. I'm thinking about hosting some sort of a live trading event, maybe a couple of days where I just hop on the charts live on YouTube, like through a livestream format, probably gonna last like 2, 3 hours. I'm gonna go through the markets kind of like pre-Killzone, and then I'm gonna You know, during the kill zone, I'm going to wait for the trade. I'm going to execute the trade alongside you guys. And then once the trade is finished or whatever, I'm going to break it down. And in between, there's going to be a live Q&A, just something casual. Not sure if you guys would be interested to see that, but I think it could be valuable in just showing you like exactly, you know, second to second, minute to minute, how trade executions happen. Because you guys follow me on X and I share all my live executions on there, but that's just text, right? What if you could be there for the entire journey? Let me know if you guys are interested down in the comment section below. Otherwise, Ethereum is looking exactly the same compared to Bitcoin. Solana, I would assume, is going to look exactly the same as well. Solana is going to be a pretty bad, you know, kind of long opportunity at the moment because you're leaving behind relatively equal lows here. So Solana is the one where I would heavily suggest against doing that kind of range deviation type play. But in the event that you sweep the low, which is probably not going to happen today, then yeah, that's the moment when Solana is going to be valid as some sort of a long play. But yeah, to the range traders out there, this is your day. To traders who are disciplined and following My system, uh, probably not our day, but we have news tomorrow. We have news on Thursday and Friday. Those are going to be the days that we're going to take advantage of all of this. Anyways, I'll see you guys soon. Ciao ciao.