you want to be VERY careful with trading bitcoin today (here's why)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm going to get into the Bitcoin daily setup for today and why you want to be very careful when it comes to today, because the market conditions are honestly looking quite sketchy. Now before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these videos for the last year and a half, and I've also been publicly documenting the success of all of these trade calls over this entire period. And so far I'm at about a 78% win rate when it comes to these calls. After all, anyone can make a YouTube video talking about what the market is going to do, but chances are You would want to listen to somebody who actually knows what they're doing and most importantly, like, proves that he knows what he's doing. So with that said, like, if you're new here, chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. But with that said, let's get into the daily setup for today. And I'm going to start things off immediately by respecting your time and telling you that most likely today is not going to be a particularly good trading day. Now, if you want to stick around and actually understand the process of why I have come to this conclusion, that means that you're a true one and you're not just looking for signals and ultimately that's the type of mentality that's going to get you to the point of success. But with that said, like, the first thing to understand about today is the fact that it is not only a non-news day, but it is also a US bank holiday, if I'm not mistaken. And so far, the price action really reflects this. If you just take a look at Bitcoin, there is pretty much zero price action today after, you know, the big move that happened yesterday, which, by the way, we called, and brilliantly so as well. So I really hope that you guys have been paying attention throughout the, you know, all of the videos that we've been making this week, because not only have the calls been immensely successful, where we got 3 wins and 1 loss this week. But more importantly, it's the mindset behind how we ended up with those trades in the first place, which is that, all right, we know that the market is going to continue going towards the downside. How do we know that? Because everything in the higher timeframe to the lower timeframe was pointing towards the fact that we are bearish. And because of that, we continued to sell low and then to buy back lower, basically just shorting here and then just, you know, taking profit lower, which is kind of what you're supposed to do compared to everyone else, um, on especially like the newer people that are getting into this and they're following these crypto degen hype bros or whatever, like they are giving advice that's genuinely ruining people's lives. I cannot recall, like if you just recall back to how many people were telling you that this was just a retracement and to tell you to buy at, you know, $100K, to tell you to buy at near $80K, and look at where we're at now. Now I'm not saying this to prove that, you know, I am superior to these people or whatever, but more so to just illustrate the idea. That if the market is in a downtrend, the correct thing to do is to follow that trend. Because as a trader, the way you make money— like, if you've ever heard of the saying that, hey, the trend is your friend, it is very true. Because what happens when you're in a downtrend is that, A, the down moves tend to be a lot more aggressive, and B, the up moves tend to be a lot less aggressive. And not only that, but it does take, you know, pretty much double the amount of time. Like, just to give you an idea here, price actually pumped like 14%, like 15% throughout the course of 56 days. That's 8 weeks. Whereas if I were to draw that same tool on this move right here, it dropped by 40% in less than half the time. And this is very much, you know, the same kind of case whenever you are in any sort of a trend. Up moves very aggressive, down moves not so much. Up moves very aggressive, very quickly, down moves not so fast. So even if I were to just oversimplify it and to just tell you that, hey, you know, go with the trend, that is lesson one that I hope that you'll be able to learn from, you know, just not only the events of this week, but like genuinely the reason I've been able to be so successful throughout the last year and a half or so is because I am Always trying to remain objective when it comes to the market. I don't really have an opinion on what the market is going to do. Now, if you ask me where I think the market is going to go, I'm still going to tell you, right? But it doesn't mean that I will be trading that opinion. At the end of the day, if the market tells me today, all right, based on everything within the system, it all points towards the up, like a long trade, I'm going to take a long trade. If everything points towards a short trade, I'm going to take a short trade. It's like to some people, to the untrained eye, this might look like you know I'm just remaining flexible. But to be honest, I'm just following my system, and most importantly, I'm just remaining objective and learn. Like listening to what the market is trying to tell me without trying to be in denial or just like refuse to believe it. And that is a big part of what allowed us to be successful this week. We not only that, but we had a plan and then we executed the plan, right? Essentially, we, we already established the fact that early on during the week, Monday, Tuesday, it was going to be, um, setting up for some sort of a big down move throughout the week. And I did say that that down move would potentially come or likely come on a Wednesday or Thursday. Well, guess what happened? This is just a result of having a predictable, and not only predictable, but a proven system. So with that said though, if you'd like to learn this for yourself, humble shill, feel free to click the first link in the description box below, especially if you enjoy the philosophy of how I trade and how I teach. But with that said though, let's just go back to the daily video. Like, rather, let's just go back to the daily trade for today. And so far we are looking at a bearish daily bias. But again, I've already established the fact that today is likely, likely, not necessarily, like not guaranteed, but likely to be a no-trade day. Or at the very least, the market conditions today are going to be a whole lot less good compared to what we had, especially in the last couple of days. Now, the reason for that is because again, we do not have news and today is like, if I'm remembering it correctly, I should probably fact-check myself before I continue moving on to this. Yes. Okay. Today is in fact a bank holiday in the United States. So the reason why I bring 2 of these things up is because A, like the market always needs some sort— no, it doesn't need to have a reason to move, but It sure is a big bonus if you had a real tangible reason to move. For example, when you have FOMC on Wednesday, that's an interest rate announcement, and that is a huge reason for the market to— for everyone in the markets to just pay attention. All right, we know that interest rates are going to drop. This is a once in a month kind of thing, and, you know, everyone's going to be paying attention. And when you have everyone paying attention, guess what? You're going to have a very high chance where you're going to get a nice movement. It's exactly what we saw on Wednesday. If you guys recall, FOMC was 2 PM. Look at when the big move happened—2 p.m., right? No surprise there. So today, not having any sort of news means that we have less of a reason for the market to move aggressively. And aggressively is the keyword here because as traders, we only make money when there's volatility in the markets, right? We—it's very hard to do anything when the market is just doing this. But it is very easy to make money if the market is actually giving you some sort of direction, is giving you some sort of movement that you can take advantage of. And it does not matter if that direction is going to be towards the upside or towards the downside because we're traders. We can. Go long if it's going up, and we can go short when it's going down. That's the mentality that I want you to adopt. And with that said though, there is still one possible kind of like trade idea for today, although I'm going to say right off the get-go that this is not going to be the best one. Now, the way that I like to think about this, and the way that I implore you to think about this as well, is that as traders, we do not get paid based on the amount of time that we spend on the charts. Neither do we get paid based on how many trades that we end up taking. Instead, we— like, how much we make as traders is directly proportional to the quality of the trades that we do take. And I'm sure you've heard that sentence before. But how do you actually apply it? Well, a very simple thing to do is to just, like, if you try this one thing, right? And I've prescribed this to quite a few of my students last time where all of them, like, the common problem amongst all of these students was that they were just trading on days that they were not supposed to. It's not that they did not understand the system. It's not that they were technically, you know, poor. Everything in terms of their technical knowledge was sound. It's just when and where do you apply that knowledge to plays a huge role in whether or not you make Big money, or you lose a lot of money. So the best way to think about this is if you can just focus your trading on the days where you have red folder news, which usually is Wednesday, Thursday, Fridays, and you avoid days like Mondays or Saturdays and Sundays. Now, like crypto is one of the rare markets out there that is actually open during Saturday and Sunday. But just because the market is open, and you can quote this, right? Just because the market is open 24/7 does not mean you should be trading 24/7, because not all timings are created the same. Like the amount of quality setups that you're going to get on certain days and certain times, completely different. It's also why I always prescribe you guys to focus your trading during the kill zones, right? Which is 7 AM to 10 AM New York. That's the New York kill zone. And 2 AM to 5 AM, that's the London kill zone. So with all of that said, right, the way this applies to what we're looking at the chart right now is the fact that, okay, just because everything in terms of technicals might set up, right, which I'm going to get into the technical setup shortly, but just because everything aligns, the fact that we're looking at a lower probability day today. for the reasons that I've already mentioned, will reduce the probability of your trade playing out. Essentially, if you've ever been in a trade where, you know, okay, I'm— I know I'm supposed to look for, okay, bearish order block, okay, you come back into the bearish order block and then I will go short, but it ends up stopping you out. Now, if you find that that happens a lot, where everything on the chart looks technically, you know, correct and technically sound, but it does not play out, what you want to do is to study the conditions that you're trading in, because that plays a huge role. Now, case in point, As I've been publicly tracking all of my trades, I don't lose very often, but I can say for certainty that the majority of my losses or the majority of my no-trade days tends to come on Mondays because Monday usually does not have news. And secondly, Monday tends to be the opening range of the week, which means that it's still setting up for the true move of the week. It's kind of like what I've referred to many times throughout this week where I'm expecting the true move of the week to come either Wednesday or Thursday. And the way you know that is just Like, yeah, the way you know that is going to be a whole other story. Like, this video is going to be way too long if I get into that. But just understand, like, focus your trading on the high probability days. And just like that, just like that, like, your trading is just going to improve that much. I've had students who went from like literally a couple of months of just either breakeven or consistently losing. The moment they cut their trade frequency down by selecting for days with higher potential quality, instantly, right? $50K, $100K, like they just start getting funded left, right, and center. So oftentimes it's like, it's the things that are so simple that it kind of eludes you. Those are the things that, you know, tends to fix your trading. And this is just one of the many things that we work on inside bootcamp. Like you're gonna get one-on-one access to, you know, everyone in the team. That's why we can pinpoint your solution. Like we can pinpoint your problem immediately and give you a specific solution to solve it. And that oftentimes just removes months of like losing money, uncertainty, doubt, inconsistency, whatever you wanna call it. But anyways, Going back into the technical setup for today, so order flow on the 1-hourly chart is already bearish, right? If this was any regular old day, I would already be telling you, all right, um, now that we're in this bearish order block here, all right, price has come back into this bearish order block, we can potentially start looking for a short. But today is going to be a little bit different. Now what I want to see specifically is that I want to see a 1-hourly candle body close beneath $62,300. Now the reason why I need this to validate is because right now I can still technically make an argument. And the reason why I want that to be validated is because of the conditions that we're dealing with today. When you are trading in lower probability market conditions, you want to look for more confirmations. Now, for example, if today was a news day, I would be like, okay, this is the— like, this is like an early confirmation. All right, that's all I need. But because today is a non-news day, plus it's a bank holiday, I want to be more careful. I want to be more cautious in my approach. This is a way of adapting to market conditions. Just like, for example, lower market conditions, for example, lower probability market conditions mean we do certain things to be more cautious because we're adapting to that. Now, on the flip side of the equation, when the market conditions are amazing, it is, in my opinion, a mistake to be too cautious. Because when the market conditions are amazing, price tends to just move just like that. And if you remain overly cautious, then you end up missing a lot of trades. This right here is going to be what is known as an undeniable CSD, right? The moment this goes— the moment you get a candle close beneath this level right here, this entire block here is going to become a bearish order block. Now, in which case, you're going to look for a trace into the bearish order block, and you're going to look for a move towards the downside between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. Now, am I going to be like looking to aggressively trade this? Now, if everything aligns at the right timing and I like the way that it looks, then I'm going to take it and I'm going to update it on X. So feel free to follow me there if you'd like. Um, any trade— like for example, the trade call yesterday, like I called it here. And by the way, shout out to any one of you who took GBP. That was an absolute banger of a trade. Like, yeah, when I entered, I just let you guys know, hey, Bitcoin, I'm in, and kaboom, a few hours later we hit the full TP. Yeah, I'm not gating this behind any sort of signals group or whatever. Just feel free to follow me on Twitter, and if I do get into a trade today, I'm definitely gonna let you guys know. But again, I'm gonna play it safe. I'm gonna play cautious rather than aggressive when it comes to today. Now, as far as intraday targets go, I think this is like $60,600 makes a lot of sense. Now, whether or not we're gonna hit that, I have no idea. Again, Like it's not really my job to predict what the market is going to do. I can just kind of like give you guys, like even when it comes to my trading myself, not trying to predict the markets, right? If I'm just literally following my system, if the criteria tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, all right, everything's met. I go in and I target for 2R, which is kind of like the criteria of my system. For example, yesterday you had a much bigger move compared to my take profit point. And yet this is what I plan for, right? If you've ever heard of the saying, plan the trade, trade the plan, that's exactly what I did yesterday. And so by that account, it is a win. And, you know, even without that account, it is a win because I made money. So the only other invalidation that I would potentially be careful of, even if this ends up, you know, kind of confirming, is you want your 5-minute order flow to also align with whatever is happening, or rather align with whatever your bias is, which in today's case is bearish. What I mean by that, essentially, once you go below here, if price just starts making higher highs and higher lows on the 5-minute chart and you don't see any sort of breakdown, then Clearly the market doesn't want to go lower. And in that case, today's going to become a no trade. But if everything aligns and every, like the 5-minute order flow is still bearish by the time that New York session comes around, then you're going to be all good to go. Although I would only take half risk for today's trade for the reasons that I've already kind of established. And again, just one last note, you are dealing with lower probability market conditions here, right? There is no guarantee that we'll even get a setup for today. Or even if you do get a setup, you might just end up getting swept out. I cannot predict that. But I know for a fact that this has happened enough times to where I will remain cautious when it comes to days like today. But with that said, this video here has been an absolute masterclass. So many concepts that I've shared today will probably fly past the heads of like 80 to 90% of the people watching this. But for the ones that were paying attention, shout out to you, especially if you stayed all the way until the end of this video. Just understand that if you really do take these concepts to heart, they are going to serve you really well when it comes to trading. It's nothing fancy. It's nothing cool. It's oftentimes these boring things that actually makes all the difference with your trading. But with that said, this has been an amazing trading week so far, and I wish you guys a good weekend. I'll see you guys next Monday. Ciao ciao.