Jason M. LemkinCEO, SaaStr · Co-Founder of SaaStr AI, SaaStr Fund, Adobe Sign

Capital One Acquires Discover & TikTok Deal Analysis! #shorts

6 Feb 2026 · 2 min

Watch on YouTube

1:39

In this YouTube short, two speakers dissect recent high‑profile M&A activity. Speaker A highlights Capital One’s rapid expansion in the fintech space, noting the recent acquisition of Discover (announced at $35 billion, closed near $50 billion) and the subsequent purchase of Brex, which can be folded into Discover to give Capital One a structural cost advantage over rivals. He then walks through a decision‑tree style analysis for fintech investors: (1) positive news from Ramp’s investors, (2) a valuation mismatch where a slower‑growing competitor is valued at 7× versus a 30× multiple for the speaker’s own company, and (3) a well‑funded public competitor entering the market with a cost advantage, prompting a mixed emotional response—publicly congratulating the market but privately questioning the impact on the stock and the benefit of staying private longer. Speaker B shifts focus to the long‑awaited TikTok transaction, explaining that U.S. investors will now own roughly 80 % of the company while the algorithmic control remains with Chinese owners, and invites analysis of the strategic implications of this ownership split. The short blends rapid news recap with strategic valuation framing for fintech and tech‑media investors.

Chapters

This could be an example where the asset is worth more to Cap One than it was on a standalone basis. I think it's a very Shrewd acquisition for Cap 1 in the last, you know, we forget in the last five or six months. They bought Discover less than six months ago. I think it closed just recently, like for 35 billion at announcement, 50 billion at close. And now they bought Brex, which they can fold on to Discover. So they're making a real push into this space, which is another thing you think about as the independence. You're sitting there going, hmm, I'm going to be playing against the A team now with a structural cost advantage. You had three pieces of news today. Investors in Ramp. You clearly won and the other guy said you won. That's good news. Put that in the positive comment. Second piece of information. People think a company going a little bit slower than you and roughly the same business is worth seven times and you think yours is worth 30x. Put that in the negative. And then last, a well funded public company competitor is directly entering your space with a structural cost advantage. Now you can hit total in that and decide. My impulse at the end of that is to tweet and say, well done. But deep in your soul you kind of go, not sure that was the best day out there for my stock. At least stay private longer. You're going to have at least you live in a.
Dream world of private. Let's, let's do it. Let's do another secondary. Boys, lads. Okay, moving on, boys. Another very, very significant bit of news that we've all been waiting for for a long period is TikTok deal finally done. U.S. investors will own 80% of the company. Algorithm retains in control of Chinese owners, which is interesting. How do we analyze this deal getting done now and how do we think about it?