A Founders Fund VC who has backed 15-20 unicorns explains how early-stage investing hinges on spotting a rare spark in founders, like recognizing a young LeBron James before the stats prove it. Later rounds are about metrics and fundamentals.
I probably invested in 15 to 20 unicorns, and as a VC, probably 5 to 10. So far, the thing that stands out is there's at least one founder who has this ridiculous spark of, you know, you're in the presence of, like, potential greatness. It's like finding a high school basketball player that looks a little bit like LeBron James. You can tell that the person looks a lot like LeBron James in High school. Doesn't mean they're going to be LeBron James. They might get injured. All kinds of things can go wrong. But there's this spark. And the person may be only 18 years old or 19 years old, or they may be out of some field, like I came as a lawyer, so they may be totally off central casting. But you see this spark that you just don't see in normal people. And for me to make an investment early, before there's a product or before there's metrics, there's a spark. And I just, like I'm saying I don't even know if I buy the idea, but man, this person is incredible and I sort of be lucky to work with them. And so that's what usually leads to a very early stage investment versus a more mature Series B, which is based upon fundamentals, business fundamentals, metrics, cohorts.
