Jason M. Lemkin predicts a surge of major IPOs in the second half of 2024, arguing that public-market appetite will return and that mega-deals like Stripe or Databricks (10 billion dollars plus) are needed to restart momentum. He's betting on it.
When will IPO's windows open and why? It'll be huge in the back half of 24. It'll be huge. The public markets, the multiples have reflated enough, the markets have grown enough. There is plenty of appetite to for top tier properties. Okay, we need a stripe A databricks. We need a few iconic ones to get the engine going again. Not ones that IPO at a billion or two. We need. We need a 10, $10 billion plus IPOs that are underpriced, which Bill Gurley hates. So everyone makes money. And DataBricks are Stripe IPOs at a high valuation, but it trades up 50%. So everyone's feeling rich, everyone's feeling smart, everyone's feeling good. And then I just wrote this up. There is a flood of SaaS companies all north of 200 million, growing at higher rates. I've invested in four or five that are over 200 million. They're just waiting. If the stars aligned, it could have happened now. It's just too fast. You. First of all, it takes six months to ipo. Best case. Best case. So you can't IPO tomorrow, right? If you started today, best case would be late Q1, Q2 of next year. Plus it takes longer because of accounting reasons. And you need these leaders to go out. So if it's going to take until early next year for some good ones to go out that you can follow, it's going to be the back half of next year. It look, if things tank or get worse, I think it'll be a good IPO a week at least a good one that we've heard of in the back half of 2024. And it will feel great. Now, the valuations will not be insane. They'll just be good. Right? But it'll be an IPO week in the back half of 24. I'll bet you whatever you want, five to one, up to a point, that this is right. There'll be an IPO week in the back half of 24. 10 grand. 10. I'll go 10 grand. One point. Okay. How much? How much? One. What do I have to. I'll do 10 grand. What did I say? What was the ratio? You said five to one. Oh, my God. Ten grand. Well, you did call me on it, right? Yeah. I guess we can. I guess we can do it five to one.
