Shafiq Hirani CCIM breaks down the 18.6-year property cycle and 2026 peak predictions, but warns against crash narratives. Multifamily loan delinquencies hit 7.23%, office loans exceed 11%, driven by operators who bought at peaks with floating-rate debt and rents that never materialized. Insurance and operating costs are squeezing margins across the board.
On top of that, the 18.6-year property cycle, which has a real historical track record, suggests U.S. land markets may peak around 2026 before a significant correction. That is the case, and some of it has merit, but here is where I need to be honest with you about what these headlines miss. Let me start with what is real, because I am not going to pretend everything is fine. Multifamily CMBS delinquencies, meaning apartment loans that are 30 or more days late, just hit 7.23%. A year ago, that number was 5.91%. That is a meaningful increase. Some apartment operators are in trouble, particularly those who bought at peak prices with aggressive debt, short-term floating rate loans, and rent projections that did not hold up. Insurance costs have surged, especially in disaster-prone markets. Rising operating expenses are squeezing margins. And the office sector is genuinely distressed, with delinquencies above 11%. That part of commercial real estate is under real pressure. So yes, there is stress in the system. Anyone who tells you otherwise is not being straight with you. But here is what the crash headlines get wrong, and this is the part that matters most if you own a small or midsize apartment building.
