Shafiq Hirani CCIMReal Estate Advisor, REMAX Distinctive · Real Estate Advisor at RE/MAX Distinctive Commercial | Washington, DC | Your Guide To Profitable Real Estate Ventures

Apartment Owners: Inflation Down, Rates Fall, But Is Your Rent Growing? #shorts

18 Aug 2026 · 2 min

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2:26

In this Apartment Navigator Weekly Market Briefing, the speaker addresses small and midsize apartment owners, outlining the key macro‑economic and multifamily trends that will shape 2026. He begins with the latest CPI data, noting a modest 0.1% month‑over‑month rise in July, annual inflation easing to 3.4%, core inflation at 2.5%, and gasoline prices down 2.9%, all aligning with forecasts and indicating a fading energy‑driven price spike. Treasury yields have fallen, prompting traders to cut the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 42%, though inflation still outpaces wage growth (3.2% vs. 2.8%). The speaker highlights a dissenting voice from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who urges action before the mid‑September decision. Turning to supply, he notes that 2024 saw a 40‑year record in unit deliveries, but projections show a 28% drop in 2025 (≈382,000 units) and a further 24% decline in 2027. Q2 2025 deliveries fell 14% YoY to 77,700 units, while net absorption in the first half exceeded new supply by roughly 100,000 units, indicating demand outpacing supply. Regional nuances are emphasized: the Mountain and South regions have the heaviest development pipelines relative to inventory, the Pacific the lightest, and markets like Austin, Phoenix, Miami, and Nashville continue to absorb supply, whereas the Northeast and Midwest have largely eased pressure. Finally, the speaker cites RealPage’s national effective rent‑growth forecast of about 1.9% over the next four quarters—well below the 3‑4% many owners might expect—underscoring the need for realistic renewal pricing this fall. The overall message is that while inflation and rates are moderating, wage growth lags, supply is tightening, and rent growth will be modest, shaping owners’ strategic decisions for the remainder of 2026.

Chapters

There is a math problem underneath them that almost nobody is talking about, and it is going to define the rest of this year for small and midsize owners. This is your Apartment Navigator Weekly Market Briefing, and today I am going to walk you through where inflation, rates, supply, rents, and expenses actually stand, and what the rest of 2026 looks like for your building. What is your biggest cost increase this year? Wednesday's CPI report was quietly encouraging. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in July. Annual inflation eased to 3.4%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.5%. Gasoline fell 2.9%. Both readings landed in line with forecasts. 2 months of tame readings tell you the energy-driven spike is genuinely fading. Treasury yields fell across the board, and traders cut the odds of a September rate hike to 42%. 3.4%. Inflation is still running ahead of wage growth at 3.2%. Inflation has been wiping out wage gains for 4 straight months. Your residents are getting squeezed even as the headline improves. Remember that when you set renewal pricing this fall. And the Fed is not unified. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said publicly this week that now is the time to act. The next decision is mid-September. Now the supply picture. And this is genuinely good news. Deliveries hit a 40-year record in 2024. This year they are projected to drop 28% to about 382,000 units, and in 2027 to fall another 24%. In the second quarter, 77,700 units were delivered, down 14% from a year ago, while absorption ran well ahead. In the first half, net absorption exceeded new supply by roughly 100,000 units. Demand is outrunning supply, but the pipeline is uneven. The Mountain and South regions still carry the heaviest development relative to inventory. The Pacific has the lightest. If you own in Austin, Phoenix, Miami, or Nashville, you are still absorbing supply. In the Northeast or Midwest, that pressure is largely behind you. Here, expectations need to be honest. RealPage forecasts national effective rent growth of about 1.9% over the next 4 quarters— not 4%, not 3%, under 2%.