are we back in a bitcoin bull market? (here's where I'm entering)

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. What a move from yesterday on Bitcoin. Are we out of the bear market? Well, I'm gonna break it all down in this video. One thing's for sure, like, if you guys watched the video yesterday and you managed to make some money off of the instant call that I made that price is gonna go towards the upside, let me know in the comment section down below. It's always nice to hear that you guys are making money as a result of watching these videos. But with that out of the way, before I get into today's Bitcoin trade and just basically breaking down whether or not we're out of the bear market and we're back in a bull market, I just wanted to introduce myself real quick. Hey, if you're new here, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting The success rate of all of these YouTube trade calls that I've been making, and so far I'm at about a 75% win rate across the last year and a half or so. So all that means is that I tend to be right just a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. But with that, but now that you have some sort of good reason to listen to me, let's get into the video. So we're going to answer the burning question first, right? Is the bear market over? And the short answer to that is going to be not yet, or at the very least, based on the system that I trade, I don't think we have enough signals to tell us that okay, the bear market is officially over. Now, just to explain what I mean by this, the basically the main kind of signal that I would look for to signify that a bear market is over is some sort of an undeniable CSD on the weekly chart. And at the moment, based on how the chart is looking like so far, the first valid level would be at around $82,200, which means that we would need a convincing candle close on the weekly chart above this level. And if that happens, congratulations, we're basically out of the bear market, or at the very least, we have completed step 1. Out of maybe like 2 or 3 steps to kind of go for a full market reversal. Right now, yes, this has been a significant pump compared to just 24 hours ago. And I know that this is like, it's been months since we saw a volatile move such as this, but just not to get too excited, this is not enough signal yet. Or at the very least, even if, you know, you can make some prediction that the bear market is over and, you know, the bull market's coming in, you are very likely going to be jumping in super early. At this stage, which is not what we do here. After all, we don't get to a 75% win rate across like a year and a half straight of daily videos without being selective and, you know, kind of filtering for quality trades. So just to also add on to another thing here, understand that like, yes, this is a great sign. And maybe in the next few weeks, we may come all the way up to $82,200. I'm not going to make a prediction on that because the truth is, I don't know. But one thing is for sure, we're just going to be trading this day by day, right? Instead of thinking about, okay, getting in on a macro signal, because the truth is, we do not have the macro Now, just to explain this really simply, the point at which I am going to kind of start deploying all of my crypto back into the markets is when we get a convincing CUSD above $82,200. Now, immediately you're gonna have a concern, right? You're gonna have question. Oh, if you get in at that point, right, wouldn't you be too late? Because compared to, you know, $65,000, you're already missing it by around $17,000. Or in terms of percentages, you'll be missing roughly 25% of the gains already. Well, my answer to that is, well, 2 things. One, it doesn't matter if you miss an initial, like, 25% or even 30% or even 50% if price is going to start going back up to like $150,000, $200,000 or beyond. Secondly, on altcoins, they have the potential to go way higher than that. So just in terms of Bitcoin, right, if it goes up to let's say $200K, the difference between going in at $82,000 or like $85,000 or whatever is like, you know, roughly 2.5x, 3x. And if you compare this to $65,000, you would definitely be looking at a convincing 3x, right? At the end of the day, it's not that big of a difference, but you know what But you do get as a result of waiting for more confirmation. That's right. You get way more higher probability that, okay, the bottom is in and you can have much more confidence in putting your money in. You're not gonna have as much of a headache. You're not gonna be getting into a false move just to watch the market dump by, you know, 50 or 80% over the next few months because the bear market was not truly over in terms of the macro perspective. And price is just like, yeah, guess what? This is just a bull trap, right? Trick everyone into thinking that the prices are going up and then bang, put on a full-on reversal. Everyone that goes long is now losing money, which is exactly the market makers want. So yeah. Yes, I stand to gain more if I were to enter early, but for me, that risk is not worth it. And anybody that's been in crypto for at least 2 or 3 cycles before, or anyone that has made money consistently from crypto bull runs and staying safe during crypto bear markets, will tell you the same thing. There is a reason why we all say the same thing. Me personally, I had to, like, I used to be the one to, you know, scoff at these, you know, YouTubers or like people on Twitter saying like, oh yeah, you know, you only get in after confirmation. I'm like, Yeah, right. You know, I'm here to make money. I'm here to make real money. So let me just, you know, be a little bit smart, a bit too smart for my own good, and try to dive in earlier because, you know, the risk to reward was better. Guess what? Risk to reward may be better, but I can tell you right away that especially if you have been through something like this yourself, the risk to reward only looks good on paper because the reality is that you have a much higher likelihood of either ending up holding bags that are down 50 to 80% or just straight up losing money. And if you end up holding bags, right, another thing that people don't really think about is if you have, let's say, 100% of your capital invested, guess what? When price actually goes into a more generational bottom, right, quote unquote generational bottom, you're not going to have any free capital to take advantage of that. So the truth is making money in crypto in terms of the macro perspective is really simple. It's just not easy. And simple in the sense where once every 4 years, chances are you're going to get a couple of years of You know, some sort of a bull run. You're gonna get a couple of years of some sort of an aggressive drop or just a you know extended sell-off. Now secondly, you tend to have anywhere between a fifty to eighty percent retracement on Bitcoin every single cycle. Now so far we are at roughly fifty percent. So what do I mean when I say like making money in terms of the macro perspective in crypto is really simple? Well, basically you buy in when the market is starting to go into an uptrend and you. Basically sell when the market goes into a downtrend. So here's what I mean, right? If you just take a look at Bitcoin from the previous bear market all the way until this point, you can see that we were forming just basically lower lows and lower highs. It is not until this point right here at April of 2023, right? Market structure shift April 2023. Since basically the downtrend that lasted 2 years from November 2021 all the way till April 2023, we were in a downtrend. Only at this point you started shifting, right? Market structure started shifting. Or to those of you that follow me and you understand order flow, this was the point that order flow shifted. In fact, order order flow would've shifted at that point. With that aside, this is a year and a half where, you know, the only right thing to do, like for example, once the market structure actually shifted bearish at this point right here at the start of 2022, the only thing to do was to wait a year and a half. And so in this sense, right, getting in only after market structure has shifted is a really simple thing. Like it doesn't take a genius to understand when the market structure shifts on the weekly chart or when order flow changes on the weekly chart. Why do so many people still struggle with this then? You know, people just don't have the patience to do nothing when they're supposed to do nothing. Like same thing here, right? The like making money in crypto in the long like kind of long time span is really easy. Sorry, it's really simple. This is not necessarily easy, but I am also giving you the solution to making this easy. It's literally like this is the condition that you look for until that happens, which considering that we're looking at a weekly chart right now, it's not going to happen for at least I don't know a couple more months. But when it does happen, then yeah, just be aggressive. But until then, being aggressive before you get a confirmation that the Microstructure or the trend or the order flow has shifted, this is like you're just asking to lose money at that point because you'll be buying into a downtrend. If you know anything about how the market works, you know that the trend is your friend. If the market is in a downtrend, you want to sell low and you buy back lower. If the market is in an uptrend, doesn't matter what you think. If like, oh yeah, Bitcoin's too expensive right now, but you don't know that. The only thing that you should do, the only thing that you should consider, especially if your goal is to make money, which I hope it which I hope it is, is to simply buy high and to sell higher. Because in a crypto bull run, nobody knows how high it can go as long as it keeps going higher until then. Like basically as long as market structure is intact, like just to look at, like I'm gonna look at a very limited example from the last cycle. As long as the market structure was intact, right? Every single time you could have just bought higher, right? You've multiple opportunities of retracement. As long as you kept buying high and selling higher into these higher time frame, you know, order blocks or support resistance zones or whatever you wanna call it, you were gonna make money. Until eventually you will not make money. It's a pretty fair trade-off to get like, you know, I don't know, like 500% gains in return for, you know, missing like 20% off the top or whatever because you waited for the market structure to shift. One thing's for sure, like, it's very simple. One thing's for sure, like, reading the macro chart is super simple, even if you disregard everything that has to do with macroeconomics, because I know yesterday the pump was actually driven by macroeconomics, right? the US is now starting to buy back its Treasury bonds. And I know that the overall pump from yesterday was driven by macroeconomic news, but still, if we break it down, right, if we distill everything down to its simplest form, which is something that I love to do, right? This trading system that you see here is really simple and everything that I try to explain, I try to explain it in the simplest way possible because simple is sustainable. If it's too complicated, nobody's gonna understand. And most importantly, like you will never be able to do this consistently for any sort of period of time. Which by the way, if you'd like my help to install this very simple trading system that generates really good money from the markets, then as you have already seen from the last year and a half or so of me publicly documenting my trades, like this is a system that works, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. 50% of the people that end up working with me end up going full-time into trading within their first 3 to 6 months. So if you've always known that trading is something that you would like to pursue, but you're just struggling to get to that point, then this is going to be for you. Click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, let's get into the Bitcoin daily trade. Now, if you remember what I said earlier about like the macro signal is not yet confirmed, well, doesn't mean that we cannot trade the micro. Now, all the weekly chart is telling me is that I am not starting to redeploy my stablecoins to hold a long-term Bitcoin position or to just kind of diversify into some altcoin positions that I think are really good. Which by the way, if you'd like to get my picks on You know, the best altcoins for the next cycle, I would highly encourage you to subscribe and turn on the notification bell. Like in every cycle, some of the coins, like I don't make a lot of videos calling altcoins, but the ones that I do make tend to go a very long distance. Like in the last cycle, I remember one of the only videos that I made in terms of calling an altcoin was Hyperliquid. Also happened to be one of my most viewed videos in the last couple of years as well. So I should probably do more of that. But the very nature of crypto with so much trash being kind of created every single day and being marketed, with 99% of this trash not having any utility whatsoever, I think it's really important to really deeply filter for quality. But yeah, either way, but yeah, if you like my altcoin picks, just feel free to follow me here. But with that out of the way, like again, all right, just focusing on the Bitcoin daily chart right now, we are looking at a very bullish daily bias. And again, once more, we have Now, if you watched the videos from the last couple of days, hopefully this idea of cognitive flexibility has proven, you know, this kind of proves the point that I was trying to make. Essentially, like one of the most valuable skills in the markets is to just have the ability to remain flexible, to not get too bought into any sort of, like to get, to not get too bought into any one idea and to, you know, have the flexibility to change the game plan a little bit. Because at the start of the week, I was like, yeah, you know, true expansion's probably gonna go lower, right? This week we're gonna go lower. But then the moment Monday closed and the way that Tuesday ended up playing out, I was like, it doesn't look that likely anymore. So yesterday I just kind of made the call like, yeah, we're going to go long. And that was a great decision. One of the best decisions in the last few months actually. So yeah, let's get into— so yeah, today is not going to change. Like despite whatever you might be seeing in terms of the daily chart, like, oh yeah, we have resistance or whatever. Doesn't matter. As long as the market is pointing towards the upside, as long as the market is moving towards the upside, doesn't matter what kind of resistance you are. It does not matter what kind of resistance you come into. The goal and the correct action to take in times like this is to buy high and to sell higher. Because here's one of the things that you need to understand about how market structure works, or just how price likes to move. When you're in a downtrend, how many levels of support you come into doesn't matter. The fact that you're in a downtrend means that you are targeting some sort of sell-side liquidity. In this case here, it was this level right here, right? So from this point onwards, you, the moment you started going into a downtrend, you start looking for, okay, what is the liquidity that price could target? Notice how I am only mentioning Liquidity. I am not mentioning support. That's because when you're in a downtrend, bullish PD arrays or just bullish levels of support tend to get invalidated because after all, you are in a downtrend. So same thing here, right? When you're in an uptrend, previous levels of bearish resistance tends to get disrespected, right? The keyword here is tends to get. And after all, like if all of these levels of resistance were gonna get respected, like we would never get anywhere in the markets. Like if you really think about it. So now that we are in some sort of a bullish trend, like let's immediately just draw our eyes to the fact that, okay, over here you have at 74,000, you have a liquidity. Liquidity level, and the next one is going to be all the way at 78,000. So we have one, two, and three liquidity levels to work with, which is at 74k, 78k, and we have another one at 82.7. As we head into today, we can see that okay, we still have very clear draws on liquidity. Price is very clearly some bullish. So yeah, the correct thing is to simply buy higher and sell higher. Now in the last hour or so, price ended up you know. In fact, at the start of the London session, we actually got a CSD. On you know with this candle right here, which turned this into a bullish order block at three a.m. I would have had an opportunity to dive in on this. Unfortunately, I was doing something else today, so I did not get into this. But still, in terms of today, we're just going to be looking for some sort of a retracement. Doesn't have to be all the way back here, but either just some sort of a mini retracement into some sort of key level, which I believe the five-minute chart would be a lot more illuminating at the moment compared to the one hourly chart as we come into any one of these bullish order blocks. Then that's already going to be good enough for us to get into a trade. And I know this feels really risky, but the truth is some of the best and easiest trades that you'll ever come across are momentum trades. For example, yesterday, this was my initial entry, right? And then I know I took profit way too early. I know it is what it is. And then later when you get into the New York session, well, guess what? You get another bullish order block right here. Entry here, place your stop loss and target for 2R. There you go. Trade would've played out. And again, this just goes to show, as long as you have bullish momentum, just keep buying high and selling higher. This was the other order block. Like I was on a live trading call yesterday with the Blueprint and Bootcamp members, and this was the one that we were considering. And the way you play this, super simple, right? You get a new order block. The moment price confirms the new order block, place your entry at the start of the order block, place your stop below, and just target 2R or target whatever liquidity point that you want to target. And yeah, same thing goes for today. And the examples that I showed you just now in terms of Bitcoin is not like— it's not the only example. If anything, some of the easiest money that I've ever made, not only for myself, but this is something that has also been reciprocated by some of the most profitable students inside My program is that momentum trading is so much easier and so much more profitable compared to trying to time the exact bottom or try to time the exact top. Because when it comes to momentum trading, you already have trend confirmation, right? You remember what I said earlier, when you jump into a confirmed trend, your win rate goes up by a lot because literally it becomes quite brain dead in the way where if you can identify the trend is going towards the upside, you simply buy higher and you sell higher. Now there is an art and science to this though, like there is still some nuance to this. The nuance is simply that you ideally wanna wait for the New York session before you start diving into the trades, which is why I'm not just Kind of placing an order right here, right now. So the New York kill zone, it's going to be between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. Now, the last, like this week so far though, I've been seeing consistently that Bitcoin has still been moving and still printing very valid signals even after 10 AM. So I would be tempted to extend the kill zone all the way to 11 AM. But yeah, either way, between 7 and 10 AM, as long as you see price continuing to form bullish order blocks on the 5-minute, or for example, if you start retracing, retracing, retracing, and then later, let's say 8:30 or 9:30, whatever, you finally get That bullish CSD, that's going to be your signal because it's going to be a retracement followed by an expansion move towards the upside. And again, targets are already listed there. If I do get into any trades for today, going to be posting it on Twitter, so feel free to follow me there. But anyways, appreciate the support. Thanks for watching every day, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.