AVAX: A Long-Term Analysis, Is #AVAX Going To $40 Or $200? Here's What You Need To Know

Welcome to a long-term analysis of AVAX. Now, this is going to be a video primarily focused on technical analysis, and I will attempt to tell you guys exactly what to expect over the next 3, 6, and even 12 months down the line. So if this is something that you're interested in, make sure you stick around to the end of this video. Now, before I get into this video, I need to clarify a couple of things. Firstly, because of the fact that this video is more of a long-term analysis, things could change pretty, pretty quickly. For example, if this country goes into conflict with this other country, then things are going to change really quickly. For example, it might just start tanking like really, really low. Maybe the entirety of crypto may tank. So, you know, with this in mind, I am going to attempt to give you guys levels Right, and exactly what to expect at each level so that you guys can have your own understanding, so that you guys can make your own decisions about what you want to do when the price reaches those levels. So this is going to hopefully prepare you for everything that is to come for AVAX. And hint, you know, currently I don't think this is like incredibly looking incredibly, incredibly bullish, at least not on— at least not from a technical basis, right? But it will be soon, right? So let's just dive right into it, shall we? So first things first, let's talk about liquidity. So the reason why this is important is because the markets run on liquidity. Forget everything that you've been told about, oh, you know, buying pressure, selling pressure, or, you know, whatever. It's all based on liquidity. The market makers move the markets because of liquidity. I'm going to give you an example. So for example, take a look at this low right here. That is what you call a poorly formed low. And that is where there is going to be liquidity present. Look at where the price goes to. It wicks just a tiny bit below that point of liquidity. Heck, it even wicks below another point of liquidity, right? It just goes slightly below it and reverses, right? This is a perfect example of liquidity at play. So when I talk about liquidity, I want you to think of it this way. Imagine if, you know, imagine this point right here, right? If you were a retail trader, which you and I both are, The only difference is that you know one of us trades with the market maker concepts in mind instead of you know following too much retail. Now not to say that retail terminology or theories do not work, it's just I just find this works a little bit better. So retail is going to be looking at this level and they're going to be thinking, oh wow, look at this! This is strong support. This is strong resistance. So if the price does come back here, we're going to have to you know we're going to have to go long and you know maybe place a stop loss right. You know, right below it. And if that's the case, you know, you're going to just, you know, go up. And oftentimes what you will find what happens is the price will wick just a tiny bit below that low right there to stop out everybody who went long. So if you go long and you place a stop loss, say, below this level, you're going to get taken out. And secondly, there's going to be another group of traders that are going to be looking at this level and they're going to be like, oh, look at this strong support you just broke down. So you're supposed to short. Yeah, and you know, a while ago I was, you know, I was a part of this camp, right? Short the breakdown. Yeah, but now, you know, I know better. More likely than not, you know, that is a move to trap retail into shorting, right? It's to trap late shorters. Basically, you short when you wick above these 2 highs right here, right? These 2 equal highs over here, that's when you short. When you wick below these lows, that's not when you short, that is when you go long. For example, this is a perfect example right here. If you want more examples, go through every single video that I've made in recent times and you'll know what I mean. So the reason why I say it traps late shorters is because, you know, imagine if you short the breakdown, right? Then they reverse it. What are you going to do now? You're either going to get liquidated or you're going to add positions, and then you continue getting trapped, trapped, trapped until eventually you reach capitulation. And yeah, this is another example right here. You have a previous high right here. Wick above it, people think it's going to break out, bam, reverse it, dump it, you know. So the reason why I, you know, went through this length to talk about liquidity is because of what's about to come next. So since we know that the markets move on liquidity, we have to first identify, you know, what are some possible areas of liquidity that we can target. And the first one is going to be right below here at $51.2. You can see that there is a port low over there, and if I go on to the 4-hourly We should see that it is a lot more clearly defined as a poor low right there. So in the event that AVAX— right, I would say that AVAX is currently, as long as it continues this downtrend right here, it is going to target at least $51.27 to take out the liquidity there. Now there is another thing that I must say, which is this fair value gap right here. I want you to notice how on the daily chart, from this point onwards, right, there is zero price action. in this block, basically. Heck, you could even extend this and say there is no price action in this block right here. So with that in mind, you know, I'm sure you guys have heard the saying of, oh, BTC CME futures gaps need to be filled. Well, same concept applies to every other coin as well, where imbalances in price tend to need to get filled. And the reason why this happens, again, is again because of the market makers. They are not in the business of helping you make money. They're in the business of helping themselves make money. What do I mean by that? Basically, when the market makers, you know, they reprice the asset higher— the thing about these institutional traders that separates us from— that separates us retail traders from institutional traders is the fact that institutional traders tend to go long and short at the same time. It's a fine balance that they keep between their long positions and their short positions. So imagine if they push the markets higher over here, What happens to their short positions that they still have down here? It will be in a very deep loss. So what tends to happen is they will eventually need to bring the price back down to mitigate their positions so that they can close those shorts and maybe start building longs for the next move upwards. So this is why imbalances tend to get filled. Now you know. So with this in mind, you know, since there is an imbalance over here, we could expect AVAX to actually I know this sounds absolutely preposterous, but hear me out. I think that AVAX could go back to $40 or $41, give or take, right? $40 to $40.50. Now, if you do get back there, that is going to be an area where I would look to buy heavily on AVAX. Now, not only do you have a bullish order block over here, right there— a bullish order block is basically the last down candle before a massive move upwards that also breaks market structure. So, you broke market structure over here, massive move upwards. You have not retested this order block in, you know, in basically— let's calculate this— in almost 5 months, closing in on 6 months. So, this fair value gap, you know, assuming that this downtrend continues, it's going to get filled in, right? And after it gets filled in, where is the first level of logical support? It's going to be right here at $40.50 to $40, at this bullish order block right here. So, regardless of market conditions, this level right here is going to be extremely strong for the markets to potentially rebound, right? This is going to be very close to the bottom, if not the bottom, for AVAX, and you're going to start reversing from there. And maybe you can go to $200 AVAX, which, you know, mind you, I'm really bullish on. I was an early investor. I mean, not really early, but like, you know, I did get AVAX back in the single digits. So, It definitely stands to reason that I saw something in AVAX before this massive run-up. You know, funnily enough, I even thought I was too late back then because I just market bought somewhere along these lines. And, you know, thankfully I wasn't wrong. So AVAX is, you know, extremely bullish. Now again, this video is more predicated on technical analysis, so I'm not going to get into the fundamentals, but fundamentals of AVAX is looking absolutely just mwah. So, you know, now we add on the technical analysis to this, and you can see that this level is going to be really strong support. To get some AVAX in its road to $200. Now, besides that, you're going to want to bring up the Mean Reversion Channels. Now, this is a tool I like to use to add confirmation to my analysis. Notice how I did not start my analysis off with this indicator, but I'm currently using it to just give sort of like a double confirmation of what I'm thinking, whether or not that is right. And you can see that if I bring up the Mean Reversion Channels, This has never really failed before, right? The only times it fails is during like super strong uptrends where, you know, you go straight up. But you go through every single coin in existence and you bring up the mean reversion channels, especially when you use it on a higher time frame such as the daily, such as the 4-hourly, you know, it has rarely failed. So in this case, you can see that the bottom of the mean reversion channel band adds up close to $40, close. So, in the event that you do return back to here, right, definitely pick this up. Like, even on BTC, there has only been 2 instances where you have touched the bottom band on the daily chart. And in those 2 instances, I know it's a really small sample size, but in both instances, after touching the bottom band, they rebounded back to the top band. Assuming this is the case, this is going to give you pretty much a 3x return if you do get something like that, right? And beyond. Because remember, in super strong uptrends, this does not matter. So 4x and even 5x. So that's going to be the entry for me. This just gives you extra confirmation. And I also want to talk about, you know, just one last level, you know, before, before I let you guys go. And that level is going to be somewhere between $21 to $15. Now I know it sounds absurd, like absurdly preposterous of me to say this, but again, take a look at this. You have a fair value gap over here, right? Let me just move it down here. You have another fair value gap over there. Not only that, but mean reversion channel adds up. This red line right here is sort of a pivot point for the mean reversion, and so this indicates that if you do get back here, it's going to be really strong support. And I don't know if you notice, but this has been, historically speaking, very good support and resistance such as this, right? So in the event that you do get back to $21, that is where I will double down even harder on AVAX in terms of, you know, my buys. And again, I am extremely bullish on this for the long term. I believe that— I truly believe that AVAX is just getting started with what they're doing. So in the event that you do get some kind of capitulation candle, and remember what I talked about with liquidity just now, imagine if you get a liquidity hunt back down to here, then more likely than not it's going to probably end up somewhere around $21. So If you do come back here, that's going to be the area that you are going to want to pick up some AVAX. That is just my two cents, and hopefully with this analysis I have given you guys, you know, everything that might prepare you from the downside. So now we're gonna have to talk about the upside, right? What about the targets for AVAX? Now before I dive right into that one, I'm gonna have to talk about this one. If you want to get the latest market updates on not just AVAX but any other coin that I might be looking at And as well as get access to all of my trades that I'm taking, as well as the trading course that will level up your trading game, you are going to want to check out the private Discord group. The description box below. The monthly subscriptions are currently open, so if you just wanted to try it out for a month, you can absolutely do so. We are making money pretty much every single day, so this is probably going to pay itself off pretty quickly. So if this is something you're interested in, check it out. If you're not, you know, don't. So diving back into the video, let's give you guys some short-term targets, some short-term, some midterm, as well as some long-term targets. So firstly, in order for this to happen, we're going to have to zoom out to the weekly chart. Now, assuming that we are not going to go back to $100 this week, which is, you know, I don't think we're going to go back to $100 this week, then your first short-term target, which is going to take about 2 to 3 months to get there in my opinion, unless, you know, you just start pumping straight up from here and you don't come back down here, But assuming that is the case, within the next three months you're going to hit $100 on AVAX again because when order flow is bullish, you will attack previous lows. Sorry, when order flow is bullish, you will attack previous highs. When order flow is bearish, you will attack previous lows such as this. Notice how you've been taken out low and low and low sequentially, basically, right? Low here, you take it out. Low here, you take it out. Right? That's a low there. Of course, you took out multiple lows with this move, but when order flow is bearish, you take out lows. When order flow is bullish, you take out highs. For example, over here you have previous highs right here. You wick just a tiny bit above it, and then you reverse, right? Something like that. You have highs here, wick it, reverse it, right? So that's a sign that order flow is bullish. So you can even argue that right now AVAX is already in bullish order flow. In this case, You know, you might be looking for a higher low to form somewhere in this block right here. And you could argue this would be a time for you to accumulate, and you wouldn't be wrong. Because if you accumulate here and you form a higher low here, then you're very likely going to go, like, just target $100 and even $127, like, immediately. But that all depends on what Bitcoin does. So if you want to know what I think about Bitcoin at the moment, you're going to want to check out the video that I posted yesterday. You're going to link it on the right-hand corner. It depends largely on Bitcoin, right? If Bitcoin goes back to $28,000, which is a possibility, just a possibility, you're going to go back to $40,000, even $21,000. Maybe not $21,000, but $40,000 for sure. So there is a lot of predication on Bitcoin as well. But if you just follow just technical analysis, yes, you can argue that this block in particular right here where AVAX is in, it's going to be prime accumulation zone for a higher move upwards. So with this in mind, perhaps a trade that you could take is to buy AVAX at $70 with a stop at $63. And you know, your take profit number 1 is going to be $100, your take profit number 2 is $127, which leads me to my second take profit point, which is going to be $127. So notice how I'm using the weekly chart for this because weekly highs— I want to find out what are the weekly highs. So with this in mind, I do believe that the TPs midterm for AVAX is going to be $127 and $145. Now we get into the long-term targets. Now this is going to be a bit sketchy because I don't know exactly where the low is going to be, but assuming that this is the low, right— I'm going to teach you guys how to do this— assuming that this one is the low right there, you're going to want to draw a fib from that swing high to that swing low right there, and then you're going to want to use the 1.618 to 2.618 as well, maybe the 3.618, but I would just stick to the 2.618 for a longer, like a 6 to 12 month target, right? And in this case, you can see that the 1.618 leads us to right at about $200, which again leads me to believe that AVAX can absolutely hit $200. 1.618 is nothing, right? A lot of coins shoot way past that. I'm going to give you an example. If I draw a fib from, let's say, that swing high to that swing low over there, you can see right now you're at the 2.618, which sort of lines up with that previous analysis. But of course, other coins shoot way past that. Maybe AVAX has not had its time yet, which is even more reason to be bullish, to be honest. So the 1.618, and if you do go to the 2.618, that's going to put you at $300. Do I think that's possible? I don't know. But $200 for sure, like for sure. So $200 and $300, that is going to be a long-term target backed up by technical analysis. This is not just some moonshot video saying, oh, AVAX is going to $1,000 without any reason at all, without any proof, without any evidence. The Fibs tend to be a very good tool for identifying where a potential top could be for coins that are in price discovery. I tend to use that a lot and it has never really failed me, to be honest. I've been able to call tops on many coins. And again, if you want to follow along and call tops along with me, check out the private Discord group. But otherwise, if you've watched until this point so far, I want you to comment down in the comment section below, order flow. Now, this is just to prove that, hey, you've been watching here until the end, and more importantly, it's going to get this video out to more people who might benefit from this. So it's a small gesture, but it really helps a lot. Make sure you like the video. And for now, hopefully this is, you know, this is an informative video. Like, if you like this format of video, make sure you let me know down in the comment section below as well, so that I know that I should be making more long-term analysis of many, many coins to come. So for now, may the gains be with you, my friend, and peace.