In this video the creator from The Art of Crypto walks through a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum, framing the discussion through a market‑maker lens rather than retail sentiment. He explains why the recent sharp retracement is a sell‑side liquidity sweep, not a bearish breakdown, and shows how to identify such sweeps using candle body closes versus wicks. Using a 1‑hour Bitcoin chart he highlights a Fibonacci 0.618 “golden pocket” retracement as a high‑probability entry zone, and then moves to the daily CME futures chart where a fair‑value gap between $27,400 and $28,800 is identified as the higher‑timeframe target for the current bear‑market rally. He outlines a concrete trade setup: enter after the sweep, place stops below the 0.705 level, and target the external high, illustrating a 7.3R trade. The same methodology is applied to Ethereum, noting its own CME gap around $2,500‑$2,600 but emphasizing Bitcoin’s influence on ETH price. Macro context is provided by linking the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Federal Reserve policy to crypto risk appetite, presenting two scenarios: a short‑term pullback toward $20k‑$15k versus a longer‑term rally to $27k‑$29k depending on DXY movement and rate‑hike outlook. Throughout, he stresses the importance of maintaining dual‑scenario awareness, higher‑timeframe bias, and disciplined risk management. The video concludes with a call to subscribe and a promotion for a trading program.
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What's up everybody? In this video, we're going to talk about Bitcoin. Yesterday I made a video predicting this move of Bitcoin pumping to at least target number 1 and potentially higher, and this is exactly what we've got. But right now we have seen a very big retracement, and I'm going to explain why this is happening. Is this a cause for concern? Is Bitcoin about to go down, or is it going to continue higher? Alongside that, I'm going to talk about Ethereum and how this applies to Ethereum, and at the same time, we're just going to discuss a little bit of macro If that is something that you are interested in, then stick around and find out. Now, first things first, yesterday I was expecting some kind of a retracement before CBI back to the, you know, areas of value before going up. The reason for that, because we understand that until target number 1 has been hit, which is going to be our like higher timeframe target, until this has been taken out, like we have no reason to believe that it's going to start going down. Now, a lot of retail would have been looking at the chart yesterday and they would be seeing some kind of a, you know, rounded top. But again, We are trading with market maker concepts. We are not trading with the retail money. Retail money is oftentimes dumb money, and we don't want to follow dumb money. So we want to figure out what the smart money is doing. And until target number 1 has been hit, you know, you're still bullish. That's why in bullish scenarios, you always look for a retracement into either areas of imbalance, or in this case, just purely areas of imbalance before you go up. But clearly that didn't happen. So back to Bitcoin, we're going to take a look on the 1-hourly chart. Now, in my opinion, this is going to be one of the best time frames for you to look at at the moment because it's slow enough that it gives you an accurate depiction of what's going on in the big picture, but it's fast enough so that you don't lag behind anything that happens on a shorter time frame. So on a 1-hour chart, you can see that this retracement here is actually not any cause of concern because all it was was a sell-side liquidity sweep. Now if you remember earlier on, I said that in buy programs, right, in market maker buy programs, you always want to look for retracements for you to get in. And I'm going to break this trade down right here and teach you how the next time you see something like this, you can take advantage of it. So this is just a sell-side liquidity sweep. Now, why do I say that? Well, clearly the wick has broken through this low, right? Is this not like a break of structure, and then, you know, price is just going to do this? Well, there is a very simple way for you to look at the charts. That is, you only confirm market breaks of structure if the body closes below the candle. If it's just a wick, Now, wicks are very easy to manipulate. Now, on a 1-hourly chart, it looks like this, right? It looks like a wick. It seems like structure has been broken. But let me put it into context and go into, say, the 1-minute chart, and you will see that this looks completely different, right? This is basically just manipulation to stop everybody out, and then boom, you sweep the other way. And that is something that happens very, very, very regularly in the markets. And the sooner you learn to spot this, you know, the better time you're going to have. So until you get a candle body close below any of these previous swing lows, that is not a confirmed break of structure. So this is just a liquidity sweep, and it is so easy to manipulate. And after the liquidity sweep, guess what you get from this low to this high? If you draw a fib, you get the 0.618. That is the golden pocket. Look at how perfectly the price comes back to the golden pocket before expanding. So at the moment, the only reason, right, I just want to clarify, the only reason why I am even remotely bullish on Bitcoin at the moment is because the higher time frame, right? Just now I was looking at the 1-hourly, but now let's look at the daily. In the daily chart, I just want to bring this chart up to you, which is the Bitcoin CME futures chart. If you take a look at CME futures, there is a fair value gap right here, right? There is a gap from $27,400, $27,350 all the way up till $28,800. Now expect this area to be the final target for this quote-unquote bear market relief, because this was a level that I was expecting Bitcoin to fill All the way back in like September, October, or even November. But then FTX happened and we got this instead. But if FTX did not happen, this would have been the case, okay? This bear market rally was supposed to happen all the way back here, but we didn't get it. So right now we're going to fill this, okay? That is my higher time frame target that I'm looking at. And anybody that tells you that Bitcoin's just going to start dumping all the way back down below $20K at this point probably doesn't know what they're talking about. And more importantly, Bitcoin is eventually going to go below $15K, it's going to go below $20K, But the key here is we want to pay attention to this first, because until this happens, this and this is not certain. Okay, but for now, this is certain. So that is going to be the higher time frame target. And until this level has been hit, you know, we can just continue looking for longs. Now, even though it might seem risky, because Bitcoin actually pumped like 30% over the course of, say, the last 3 to 4 days, but it might seem risky. But again, the higher time frame target hasn't been hit yet. And so the market makers are going to reprice the markets in a way where they're going to be delivering higher and higher prices. So in essence, it might seem risky if you're trading, you know, retail, but if you're trading alongside the market makers, then you have their sponsorship, you have their backing, is basically what I'm trying to say. But going back to Bitcoin, from basically $26,800 up to about $28,700 is the level that you want to pay attention to. So until that level has been hit, we can safely just continue looking In fact, on the Binance chart, it actually looks more like this. That's why, because the higher timeframe target hasn't been hit yet, I'm going to continue looking for longs. And one of my favorite setups when it comes to looking for longs is actually just, you know, this kind of aggressive move, and then price comes down aggressively to sweep the sell-side liquidity. Now, you can enter aggressively here, but that is very risky. But my favorite entry is after the sell-side liquidity sweep, just wait for a swing high to form, and then Draw a fib, swing low, swing high, retrace back to 618 or 705, and that is a beautiful entry, right? For example, if you go into 618, just place your stop below the 705, target an external high. In this case, you know, could be this, and that is picture perfect. It is a 7.3R trade that happened in basically like an hour. So that is Bitcoin. Now let's take a look at Ethereum. Now Ethereum, it's just slightly different from Bitcoin, but the Setup is basically the same, right? You sweep sell-side liquidity right here. You swept it. You swept these lows. You swept these lows. And then you come up, form a swing high. You know, you draw a fib from low to high. Price retraces back to the golden pocket or maybe the 0.5. And bam, right? You take off. Now, at this point, the only reason why I would be bullish on Ethereum is not because of the CME futures gap. Because Ethereum's CME futures gap is actually all the way up here at like $2,500, $2,600. Which, you know, let's face it, Ethereum's not going to go to $2,600 when Bitcoin is going to get rejected. So it's not going to go this high, but if Bitcoin dumps, you know, Ethereum's just going to follow, and that's pretty common. So finally, I just want to talk about one last thing to hopefully put some context into what is happening in the markets at the moment. So if you take a look at the DXY, which historically whenever DXY goes up, Bitcoin goes down, whenever DXY goes down, you know, Bitcoin goes up. And it's not just Bitcoin. DXY is sort of like a barometer for how well risk assets are going to perform. So that includes stocks and equities. So at the moment, DXY has the— I don't know if you guys can spot it, right? Just pause this video. Look at the chart and see if you can spot a pattern. Okay, time's up. So this pattern is exactly the same as what we got on Bitcoin, right? Aggressive move upwards, and then you draw a fib, right, to the point where you can draw a fib from low to high, and price is going to retrace back to an area, right? For example, in here we're looking at the golden pocket. Take a look at how there is a gap of price action here, and there is another gap of price action down here, right? So the golden pocket has an area of value. So basically it would Like this is the exact same setup, right? You're sweeping liquidity, sweeping, sweep, sweep, sweep, sweep, and then bam, you go the other way. And eventually, in the bigger picture, the bigger scheme of things, if you go into the weekly chart, if you draw a fib from this high to this low, you can see that we are actually looking for this block here between 109 to 110 to be the rejection. So basically, Bitcoin go up until this point, which is 28K, and then Bitcoin go down until this point, which is I would assume, you know, below $20K because this is quite a big move for the DXY, right? That is scenario 1. That is the scenario that I'm looking at because nothing goes straight down forever, right? This weekly chart here tells you that, you know, things might start to change now because you have an aggressive move upwards from the market makers. So now you retrace and you continue upwards, right? This is known as your external range. This is basically big picture. This is small picture. Small picture, yeah, short term is going to go down, but long term, that's the ultimate target. Right, that's the power of understanding higher timeframe bias. So hopefully this just adds a little bit more complements to the things that I've already shared to you about Bitcoin and Ethereum. And of course, there is going to be another scenario. As traders, we always wanna keep both scenarios in mind. We never wanna get too caught up in like one bias over the other. Of course, there is a fine balance to strike with that. Taking a look at the DXY, is there a chance where it could just, you know, just straight, just go straight down, right? Forget this, it's just gonna go straight down. Well, of course, there is going to be a chance of that. If you just draw a fib from third high, you can see that the golden pocket, right, on a very large time scale, it's going to be at around this area. So is there a chance that, you know, it's just going to do this? Absolutely. That all depends on how the Fed is going to announce their rate hikes and whether or not, you know, the macroeconomic conditions are going to be good for the DXY to either flourish or dump. And if the DXY dumps, right, if the US economic situation just gets worse, then yeah, Bitcoin is just gonna absolutely just explode. And if that happens, I'm gonna make another video about it to tell you what are the targets and how you can take advantage of it. But for now, target number 2, anywhere between $27,000 to $29,000, is going to be the ultimate target for this bear market rally. Whether or not it goes higher really depends on the DXY, and it depends on the US Federal Reserve's, you know, just macroeconomic— or the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, whether they are going to ease up on the rate hikes or if they're going to, you know, make things harder for us, for risk assets to flourish. Anyway, if you want to figure out the best way to make money when that happens, stay tuned, subscribe. And if you want to learn how to trade using a program that actually works and is actually going to get you results, check out the link in the description box below. I'll see you inside. Trade safe, take care.
