#Bitcoin: A Longer Term Analysis | Is The #Crypto Bull Market Over? #BTC

What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. In this video, we are going to be doing a longer-term analysis of Bitcoin and figure out if the bull market is still intact or are we already in a bear market. If you want a shorter-term analysis as to what is going to happen, you know, this week, maybe up till next week, and the short-term levels to focus on for Bitcoin You're going to want to watch the video that I posted yesterday, which I'm going to link on the top right-hand corner. In that video, not only will I cover, you know, what's Bitcoin going to do in the near future, but I also teach you about how to trade ranges because a lot of people get caught up in ranges and that's how they lose all their money. In fact, that video is going to teach you exactly how to take advantage of ranges according to a market maker model. So if you want to find out exactly how to trade ranges, make sure you watch that video that I posted yesterday. And if you just want the tips and tips, like tips and tricks as to not you know, how to prevent something like this from happening again and losing your entire portfolio, you're going to want to watch the live stream that I posted recently, which I will link on the top right-hand corner as well. That will get into a lot of tips and tricks as well as a lot of analysis of coins. But for now, let's dive right into Bitcoin, shall we? Now, right now I'm looking at Bitcoin on a weekly chart. In fact, I should probably go on to another, you know, another chart, uh, probably this one. Just a clean chart for me to work with. So when you look on the weekly chart, right, here's a couple of things that stands out immediately. So the first of which is the fact that we have just filled in this bullish order block on the weekly chart. And for those of you who watch my channel for any given amount of time, you understand that order blocks, right, are untapped areas of untapped liquidity. Basically, it's just market makers, you know, coming back down to cover their, you know, mitigate some losses or build some positions. Basically, they are institutional levels of value, right? And historically, this has been repeated many, many times, right? For example, the most recent one is back in May where we went down all the way here, came up exactly to retest that order block right there, and then dumping by like 20-30%. And this is something that I called back then as well. And this right here at the bottom for Bitcoin is something that I called back then as well, right? I've been talking about this level for a few weeks now. So for those of you who've been watching my videos, Congratulations, you would have caught the exact bottom. So for now, let's you know let's go back to you know what's happening on the weekly chart. Ah, you know is the bull market still intact? Are we doing all right? And there's a few things that I'm going to cover in here today, right? Including some macroeconomic you know factors as well as the stock to flow as well as you know for once I'm going to start using some indicators. But for now let's discuss this, right? So honestly, if you were to ask me, right until you break. This level right here, I'm going to draw it out for you guys just so you can get a clearer understanding on how I view the markets, right? Until you break— I want you to imagine this right here— until you break this low right here, right, market structure, right, bullish market structure is still intact. In fact, this is even more evident if we go onto the monthly chart, right? Doesn't look too bad on the monthly chart if you look at it this way. So going back onto the weekly chart, there is a tip that, you know, I always like to give people, which is when in doubt, Zoom out, okay? Something that looks terrible on the one-hourly chart may look very, very different on the weekly chart. And this is something, you know, this is what this, you know, this is the, uh, what this video is predicated on, right? We're looking at the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and is it going to continue going to $100K. And for those of you who wonder how I stumbled upon the $100K, you know, sort of theory, we have to go back to a chart like Bitstamp, I believe. Yeah, Bitstamp. This is where I drew it. So if you go back to the 2017 bull market top and you draw a fib from that swing high over there to the swing low of the, you know, the bear market bottom, you get, you know, we— you get the fib levels which we have been respecting very, very well, by the way. Like, I want you to show you this. So we've been respecting this very, very well, right? Look at this. You come to find support on the 1.168, you know, we get exact rejection on the 3.618. And at the moment, the target, right, if you go back to look at every bull market in the past, right, historically speaking, historically speaking, you have always found the top somewhere near the 5.618, right? If we draw from this top to this low right there, right, that low right there, you can see that the top comes in close to the 5.618. And if we draw this similar thing right here, we can assume that the top of the bull market might come close at about $100K, right? I'm not saying that's going to be the top for the bull market. I'll get into why later. But for now, until we hit that target, you know, it's very safe to assume that the bull market is not over. In fact, going back to— you're going back to Binance. Just want to show you this, right? Until you break— let's see what level this is. The low of this candle is 39,780, right? 39,780. Let's draw that line right here. Yeah, so until you break this level, you're really not— you know, you're really not bearish, right? You still maintain bullish market structure until that low has been broken. And is that low going to be broken? Hey, it's a bit hard to tell at the moment because if you go back to Bitcoin— again, this is going to be a very in-depth dive into what I think is going to happen to Bitcoin and the crypto markets in the long term. But we do have a CME futures gap between $34,400 to $33,000, and usually gaps tend to get filled, right? Inefficiencies in price tend to get filled. For example, you have an inefficiency of price right here, you get filled eventually, right? And you could argue that there's even more inefficiencies down below, right? For example, at $24K, $25K, $26K-ish, that is another level of inefficiency. Now, are we going to go fill back, you know, are we going to fill these 2 inefficiencies before the bull market continues? You know, it's a bit too early to tell at the moment. For now though, I don't, you know, just play it one level at a time and just understand that on a, you know, on a higher time frame, right, on a higher time frame, you're really not bearish. Like, honestly, you are really not bearish. until you break $39,700. I know that's not something that all of you want to hear, but it's just the fact of the matter at the moment. You know, we have just filled order blocks, and usually in bullish market structure, whenever we fill order blocks, that tends to be the bottom, and then it is primed for continuation, right? In the short-term analysis that I did yesterday, I mentioned that there was an order block right here, right? This right here is your order block, and look at it. We came down to fill it, and bam, immediately, right? Immediately. And this is in bearish market structure, mind you. So right now on the weekly chart, this is bullish market structure. So it is only safe to assume that this was just one massive shakeout and, you know, it's going to continue on from here. And for those of you who have been watching my videos, I've been talking about the fact that November and December are not going to be good months for crypto for quite a few weeks now. So I really hope I helped some people prevent, you know, this catastrophe that happened recently. And by the way, for those of you who have not already followed me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto, this is not only where I'm sharing you know, tips on, you know, is today a good trading day or not, but just any other trades that I might be looking at. For example, SOLV, I called this on my Twitter, only on my Twitter because I didn't have time to make videos, and it was 65% up in a single day. So make sure you follow me on my Twitter to get access to every, you know, every little thought that I might be having about the crypto markets. And I might be opening up the monthly subscription for just another, you know, 50 people, like just another few folks. So anything that I, you know, announce about the monthly subscription is going to be on the Twitter. So make sure you follow me on Twitter at underscore the art crypto. So now let's take a look at the second, you know, second little piece of information that I want to show you. And this is going to be the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin, which historically has been, you know, very accurate for Bitcoin in terms of its performance. And just in general, it has been right. And at the moment, you can see that the fair value of the stock-to-flow at as of right now is actually sitting at about $100K. And right now, well, it's pretty obvious that we are nowhere close to $100K. In fact, we are only half of that, which ties back in to— again, I'm going to show you another one right now. And for this one, we're going to have to go back onto the daily chart to show you this. But I want you guys to pay attention to this, this one little particular— just this one little particular thing, right? Don't know I don't know why it has gotten so ugly. That's weird. It looked better on the, um, on the old, uh, Binance chart for some reason. But I want you to visualize this one, right? This indicator right here is on balance volume, and it's sort of like a momentum indicator, right? Now, I don't use indicators a lot. In fact, I rarely do, because I believe— I sincerely believe that as you grow as a trader, you know, the best indicator is sort of just price action. Because think about it, indicators are programmed On you know price action, right? All the data points that you get from your indicators is from price action. So if you think about it, wouldn't price action just be the greatest indicator, right? If you learn how to read price action, you don't need indicators. But in this particular scenario, you know I believe there is a time and place for everything. I'm not saying indicators don't work at all because I do use them just very rarely, right? More for secondary confirmation or more for when I do not have you know anything else to work with. And at the moment, yo. Looking at the Bitcoin chart, right, other than the weekly chart as well as the daily chart where we just filled in the order block right here, there's not much else that I can work with, right? And this range right here that I discussed how to trade yesterday— so if you want to learn more about how to trade ranges and not fall for the tricks of these market makers, make sure you go watch that video that I posted yesterday. Again, I'll link it on the top right-hand corner. But if you take a look at the on-balance volume right now, you can see that We have been falling— we have been forming this sort of, you know, trendline resistance right here. And at the moment, you can see that we are very close to the bottom on the on-balance volume. And does this indicate that we are about to break out of on-balance volume, right? And if we do that, this is how it's going to look at, right? We're going to get a shorter rejection. You know, you break above it, you know, you find support, and then you go take out some previous highs. So in this fashion, right, in this fashion, it's going to look like this. We go on to a lower time frame, right? So it's going to come back down to retest the top of the range right here, and then you're going to go up to fill in the imbalance at $53,400, and then you're going to come back down to this level sort of right here in this trend line that we have been respecting, right? This trend line, I want you to draw it on your own chart, okay? This trend line is very significant, and I expect this trend line to act as immediate resistance if we get there. And if you're finding like this video valuable so far, Make sure you drop a like button down below. It is a small gesture, but it really helps a lot. So you're going to find resistance on this trend line right here. You come back down, go back up, you know, fill in the imbalance on Bitcoin CME futures. And then eventually, let me go back onto the daily chart. Eventually, you take off to, you know, take out the previous highs in order to confirm bullish structure, right? And again, I just want to remind you guys that even though the bullish order block, in my humble opinion, because I have been talking about this for so long, I do believe that this is going to be the bottom, right, for Bitcoin heading into the next 3 to 4 months. You know, I could be wrong, but, you know, based on what I've seen the last time, because I predicted this bottom as well, right? I predicted this bottom at $40K based on the order block theory as well, right? You have bullish market structure, you're just coming down to fill in some untapped liquidity, and then off to the races. So similar, like, I arrived at this bottom theory using this same theory as well. So Based on this theory, I would assume that this would be the bottom. So right now, you know, could be only, you know, we might come down a little bit to $45K, $43K to retest this, but otherwise, or we might form a range, but otherwise, I do think that it's very close to the bottom, at least for now. And going back to, you know, OBV as well as the weekly chart as well as the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, you can see how all of this adds up and that we are nowhere close, you know, to going into a bear market. And if we are going close to a bear market, I will definitely update you guys. And I do understand that there are a lot of macroeconomic factors going, you know, heading into next year that might make it very precarious, right? The markets are looking very precarious in general, right? Not just Bitcoin. You have the traditional markets, you know, the stock market and everything. They are just over— they're just overheated right now. And are we going to see some kind of a market correction next year? I would assume so, right? I do think so. And if I see signs of, you know, a bear market potentially coming, I'm definitely going to call it. But for now, for now though, based on all of these, you know, these, um, these data points that I've just shared, you know, you have stock-to-flow definitely nowhere close to the top. In fact, if anything, we, we should go to $100K before anything else, right? We are still bullish, very bullish on a higher time frame. You know, we've got OBV potentially looking for a breakout. We have got a weekly order block fill or a daily zone of demand You know, sort of fill and then go up from here. And then, you know, regarding the— and if you, again, if you guys don't understand what I'm talking about, about the Bitcoin CME futures fill that I just mentioned just now, you're going to want to watch the video that I posted yesterday. I get into how to use information such as Bitcoin futures in order to do your analysis. But otherwise, you know, you've got— the only thing that really doesn't look too good is Bitcoin dominance, right? Because It has been trying to find support at, you know, these areas for quite a while now. And if anything, if Bitcoin dominance bounces from here, then it's going to be a very strong Bitcoin season to $100K before the next alt season. So that's just the only thing that you want to keep in mind. But otherwise, I hope this video has been helpful to you in terms of understanding what is going on on a bigger picture. I hope this alleviates some kind of worry. And just one, you know, tip before You know, I get on to the next point is the fact that just understand that fear buys more often than not tend to end up in very, very good profit. And everyone is very fearful right now, and rightfully so. You know, we have just been through a very, very nasty little, you know, nasty little wick and a liquidation. And rightfully so that everyone is going to be affected and very fearful right now. But doesn't— like, it still stands to reason that You know, we have just retested this trend line right here. You know, beautiful. Everything looks bullish so far. So if you have bought the dip, just hold on, right? Don't buy into what everybody is feeling right now. The market's like— in order to be a successful investor and a trader, you never want to have emotions, okay, when it comes to your trades. So discard your emotions, disregard everybody's fear right now, and do what you feel like the market's going to do at the moment. In my opinion, Market's looking very bullish, and I do believe that this is the bottom. I have fully like I have been fully like back then right back then I didn't I myself did not even catch the bottom right. I was telling my the people in my private Discord group that I was fully deployed at 49k to 47k, and you know for a few days it was looking terrible right for a few days. But now look where we are right we're at 51k you know we're in good profits. Some altcoins might not be in good profits yet, but. Again, don't buy into what everybody— you know what, 90% of traders in this market are losers, okay? So if you listen to everybody else and feel what they're feeling, you're gonna lose, right? In fact, do the opposite, right? Think contrar— have a contrarian mindset, right? Do your analysis from a very unbiased perspective, right? And this, at the moment, this is what I'm seeing, right? Maybe there is a bearish scenario, which I posted in my private Discord group. And speaking about the private Discord group, I might be opening up the monthly subscription soon, so stay tuned on my Twitter to know more about it. But otherwise, you know, if you just want the latest market updates as well as, you know, in real time I'll be telling you, hey, what's going on, is today a good day or a bad day, if you want to follow along with all of my trades as well as get access to the trading course that I have that I'm currently in the process of revamping, as well as, you know, just the fact that, you know, you just want to be prepared, not caught off guard by anything that happens in the markets You're going to want to join the private Discord group. The link will be in the description below. But otherwise, if you have found this video helpful, if a friend could use this video, make sure you share it to them. But otherwise, may the gains be with you, my friend, and peace.