Bitcoin and XRP Might Not Be As Bullish As You Think, Here's Why

All right, what's up everybody? Welcome back to another weekly market update video. So unless you have been living under a rock for the past few days, you know that the SEC has recently announced that XRP as well as a bunch of other altcoins are no longer considered securities. This led to a massive pump in the crypto markets, which we're going to talk about because believe it or not, this pump may have dangers that you might not be thinking about. Basically, I wouldn't necessarily get too bullish here, and I'll explain why. And And then I'm gonna share with you my plan for what is the best move to approach the market so that you can capitalize on this opportunity when everyone is just absolutely euphoric to make yourself some money. So basically, we're gonna be talking about Bitcoin, we're gonna be talking about Ethereum, and then we're gonna be talking about XRP since everyone is looking at XRP. Now, as a bonus, if you stick around until the part about XRP, this is what you're gonna get. On the XRP chart, I did zero prior preparation, and basically I just charted XRP live. And then I also give you my step-by-step process Pulling up a naked chart, and then step one, step two, step three. What do you do? If you're interested in that, then stick around until the part about XRP, and you're gonna get a lot of value that way. But otherwise, let's kick things off with Bitcoin. So what I mentioned last week was that if the interest rates start going up, then of course crypto is just gonna absolutely tank, and it's gonna go back to 24k. But other than that, like crypto is still bullish. Bitcoin is still bullish until otherwise proven. And right now we haven't seen signs. of proving otherwise yet. Basically, what I'm trying to get at here is that Bitcoin is still bullish, although cautiously so, and the plan for $35K and even above is still intact, but again, cautiously so, because we've been forming a range around this range high for quite a long while now. And what do I mean by range high? Basically, if you draw the markets like that, then you can pretty much see that most of the price action has been occurring between these 2 levels. Now, usually when range highs get swept, it tends to deviate back to the range low. So that's where the theory for $25K, $24K Bitcoin comes from. So basically right now you are sort of forming a range, sort of could look like distribution around the range high. But then again, it's not our job as traders to predict what the market's going to do. It is our job though to simply read the markets objectively, figure out what it's trying to tell us without any bias, and then be able to adapt to that bias, whatever it is. So until we get proof that— until the market starts showing signs that it's going to come down, I don't see a reason why I would just want to start shorting here. But So with that said, the plan for $35K is still intact. So in order to figure that out, we are going to have to zoom into the 4-hourly chart just to paint a clearer picture. So within that macro range that I showed you just now, right now we also have a micro range, right, with the range high, range low. This move here after the SEC announced that Ripple wasn't a security and then the entire crypto markets reacted, basically doubled. Like the entire crypto markets pretty much gained $300 to $400 billion or like $500 billion on of capitalization, like overnight, like within a day, which is crazy if you think about it. But now that range highs have been swept, clearly you're going for range lows. But now that range lows have been swept, what next? Well, the level that I would personally be looking at is going to be somewhere around $29,000. Or if you want to refine it to the 4-hourly chart, I would actually be looking at either right here at $29,200 or right here at $28,700. Basically within this entire block here is when you would want to be looking for buys. The reason being that this is the 0.5 fair value gap on the daily chart. Now, if we look at this fair value gap here that starts from here to here, and then we draw a fib from the low of the fair value gap to the high, you can see that this line here lines up with the 0.5 of the fair value gap. So the 0.5 tends to be an area that price gets attracted to because the market makers know that nobody else is looking at these levels. And so most of the time you will find that price magically seems to just find some kind of support in the middle of nowhere. And if you actually pull up a Fib or whatever, you'll see that it tends to be the 0.5 of either an order block or a fair value gap. So in this case, I'm just going to zoom into the 1-hour to see if we can refine this any further, just to see if our theory is correct. And it is indeed correct. You have an order block here on the 1-hour chart that is confirmed. So now we can narrow down our levels to 2 levels. So in this case, the 2 levels that I would be looking at for a retrace on Bitcoin would be here at $29,000 spot and then $28,700. So this is also going to line up with something else. I want you to imagine the markets, or rather the price action, as a little fish, and then the market is an ocean where in order for the fish— like, the fish is always looking for food, right? The food is either going to be on the top of the ocean or at the surface, like at the bottom of the ocean. So obviously wherever has more food, the fish is going to go towards that direction. The moment The market is still trending up, which means that food is still largely towards the upside. And we have proven that with the 35 target, where it's a BTC/CME futures gap, which tends to act as a magnet for price. So now that we've established that, this is where the second part of this equation comes into play. In order for the markets to move up, right, when you are in bullish market structure, okay, when price is in a buy program, when it is going for higher prices, what tends to happen Is sell-side liquidity sweeps tend to provide the fuel necessary for price to make new highs. Now, I know that is a mouthful, but let me break it down. Remember all this liquidity here? Like, check out what happens when this liquidity, like this old low, gets taken out by this move. Tends to form a new high. This liquidity here gets taken out by this move, and then price eventually forms a new high. Again, once more, when price takes out liquidity, tends to form a new high. Now let's go back even further and see how this is playing out. You have the candle body lows there, you take it out, you form a new high. And then let's move back to this old example here where, check it out, liquidity gets taken, you pump, right? Liquidity gets taken, you pump. Liquidity gets taken, you pump. And you eventually form new highs. This is how it works in a buy market. Now if you are in a bearish scenario, then previous highs is going to get taken out and that is going to provide the fuel necessary to form new lows. What I'm trying to get at here is that if price were to retrace back into this area, you would have already taken out all the lows, like all of the key lows here. You're going to retrace into a key level on the daily chart, the 4-hourly chart, the 1-hourly chart, which are all very high time frames. And then what's going to— like, what's likely to happen is you're going to get sort of a V-shaped recovery and you're going to just pump. So very similar to how we got this, right? And very similar to how we got this. And the best example that I can give you is this. You've got fair value gap over here. Now I know it doesn't seem very obvious, but if I go onto the daily chart, it will be much more clearer. So price finds support at a fair value gap. In fact, show you right now that price came very close to the 0.5 of the fair value gap, and then just takes out all the liquidity here and here. V-shape recovery, bam. Okay, so that's how the market makers like to play games. And so if we understand how they play games, then we can stay At least hopefully half a step ahead of them. So right now that is that remains to be the plan. Like if BTC retraces to this area, then you expect a V-shaped recovery towards the upside. Now this all assumes that the interest rate statements coming out are going to be you know positive, like meaning it's going to either stay the same or it's not going to start rising again. But either way, that's the plan at the moment. And there are any changes, I will definitely be posting them onto my Twitter, which you should follow at underscore the art of crypto. In fact, talking about Twitter, this is just a little tip for all of you guys. Bet. Bad news tends to come near bottoms. Good news tends to come near tops. This is just how the market makers like to induce liquidity in order to buy high and sell low. So what I mean by that, essentially, if you guys remember back here, that is when the SEC came up with all of the allegations against all of those altcoins. And guess what happens right afterwards, right? Good news tends to come near the bottom. And right now you have a very high concentration of good news that are concentrated at the top here. So I wouldn't necessarily start looking to buy here. Again, I will just wait for price action to tell me what to do. At the moment, I just want to come up with a contingency plan in the event that you know price starts coming down. Then you know I know where to buy. But I'm not necessarily just saying like okay if price comes to here then you just buy. That's generally not how it works. When price comes down here, you want to see signs that the markets want to go up before you start buying, right? You don't need to catch bottoms in order to make money. Same as how you don't need to catch tops in order to make money. There is a huge move and you could have made money at any given point of the move, right? You just have the momentum trade. It's much better to get into. price when you get a confirmed, like, a clear confirmation. For example, when I was entering into the trade at $26,000, what I waited for was a clear break of structure here, and then for price to retrace back into some level before going in. That is how you avoid, like, just buying the dip and then seeing the price dip even lower. But as for now, that is the current plan for Bitcoin. The only other thing that I would add is that range lows currently are very close to being swept. So if you do sweep the range lows and the markets already start showing signs of going up, then just ride that wave. You don't necessarily have to wait for price to come to here. Again, it's momentum trading. You just have to take what the markets give you. This might be the plan, but then things rarely go according to plan in the crypto markets, especially in a market that moves this quickly. So momentum trade if you get the confirmation from the markets. So coming back to ETH, now ETH is doing really, really well. Last week we talked about how this liquidity is swept and we expect price to make new highs. Check it out, right? Price made new highs. This goes back to the Bitcoin theory. In a bullish market, when sell-side liquidity gets swept, you make new highs. That provides the fuel necessary to make new highs. So currently, Ethereum is still targeting $2,118. That is going to be the first target, right? If you were in a long, that would be TP1. Ideally, the TP should come at around $2,540, $2,550. That is going to be, you know, a very good bullish target for Ethereum in the medium to short term. But otherwise, you know, nothing's really changed with Ethereum. Again, now that the market is showing you confirmation that the price is wanting to go higher, You simply momentum trade, right? You take order blocks, right? This would be an order block, and then notice how price, you know, finds support there. And then now it's probably going to keep going higher, although price actually doesn't seem to be going higher at the moment. Again, a lot of it is still tied to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin starts dumping, then Ethereum is definitely going to dump. And again, the place that I would be looking to buy is like, I did like quote unquote ideal level would be between, you know, $1,650. That's going to be one of them, as well as around $1,717. Are we going to get there? Not unless Bitcoin dumps. And if Bitcoin doesn't dump, then literally just wait for sell-side liquidity sweeps. In this case, it will be right here at $1,872. If you sweep the sell-side liquidity, then that provides enough fuel for you to form new highs and take profit at $2,118. That is going to be the plan for Ethereum. Again, just bullish for now. And like, we finally got what we needed from Bitcoin dominance, where it's finally starting to, you know, slow down and actually go down, which means the Attention on Bitcoin finally. Like, people are taking their eyes off Bitcoin and they're actually starting to divert their attention into altcoins. Now, this leads me on into the money flow in crypto. Basically, whenever any market movements start, right, when markets start pumping, always, it is always Bitcoin first. Bitcoin has to make the leading move before anything else can follow. If you recall the last few months, Bitcoin has been pumping to the moon while the large caps, mid caps, and low caps have been doing absolutely nothing. Right now, you're seeing large caps start to pump, right? A lot of them are pumping like 100% at a time. And so large caps have already pumped. So the best way to navigate these markets at the moment is not to buy large caps, but rather focus on the mid caps. Basically anything that is between top two, like top fifty to like top two hundred, maybe top two hundred and fifty. I would stick to top two hundred. So mid caps, if you like, the best time to position into the mid caps is right now. The best time to position into the large caps was a month ago. And then of course low caps, um, they they don't. That's like true. Dejen alt season, that's probably not going to happen yet. But if you want to position yourself in low caps for the big gains, that is also a way to go. But again, I would approach this general sense of euphoria in the markets with a grain of salt, just because, you know, good news tends to come near tops and bad news tends to come near bottoms. We don't know if Bitcoin will just simply like form a top here and like just start reversing back to $24K. That is going to come. For now, nothing is showing that we're going to be, you know, going downwards, but Hey, we could be wrong, and you always want to protect your downside. For now though, I am still leaning towards the bullish side, and I will start positioning myself in a few mid-cap coins and wait for retracements on the large caps so that I can buy into them. And speaking about large caps, we're going to now look at XRP. Now, what is going on with XRP? Is it going to keep going higher or is it not? Now, I actually haven't looked at XRP for literally ages, so it's going to be a good time for me to show you my thought process on How to chart a coin, basically. So step one, when you pull up any chart, is you look at where price recently stopped. This is important because you want to figure out what point of liquidity did price take out recently. So if I pull over to over here, I can see that price recently took out these two highs over here. And price did it take out this high? Yep. It also took out that high, but that high was already taken out here. So let's use this wick. Like this candle wick high as our, you know, the significant high that price took out. So that is the level that price took out. Why is this important? It tells me that at the moment where price is— this is step 2, by the way. Now what does this tell us? Well, I'm only going to be able to answer that once we cover a couple more steps. So once I figure out like where price took out liquidity in a recent move, now I have to mark out these significant key levels. And usually that involves 1 to 2 levels to the upside and 1 to 2 levels to the downside. Now, what is the purpose of these levels? Well, essentially we're just marking out significant liquidity levels. So I'm going to mark one out to the upside that is a previous swing high that hasn't been swept. And of course, that one over there, that is probably not going to get hit anytime soon. But for now, this one seems pretty realistic. And then to the downside, I'm going to mark out a significant key level. And in this case, it will probably be at this low here. And and probably this one, like just around. So now that we've got our very significant key levels marked out, I'm just gonna look for like in the event that we are bullish, I'm going to be wanting to get into a retracement, and that's going to be at the zero point five here as well as the one of the February gap over there. So now that we have all of our like basically at this point, these are the only levels that matter on. XRP. Well, now we move on to step 3. Now basically, these are the only significant levels for XRP. Anything else is going to just be noise. And it's a problem that I see people run into all the time where they think every level— like when they zoom out, right, and then they zoom in to the 4-hourly chart, and then oh, all of a sudden there's like a lot more levels, and then they start adding lines and their whole chart just gets littered with lines. The tip to overcome this is literally what you're doing on this higher time frame is just marking out, like just mapping out the environment. And when you're mapping out the environment, you don't need more than 5 key levels. You can see that excluding this one, I have like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. That's it, right? Very clean. So now we move on to step 3, is once you have your key levels marked out, is that now you need to make an educated guess. What do I mean by that? Essentially, right now at price, where price currently is, you need to make an educated guess on which key levels that price is going to target first And that, that's how you get your high time frame buys. Essentially, this is all just a guessing game. Everything in trading is just a guessing game. Again, the only thing certain about the markets is that it is always uncertain. Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. You can just make educated guesses. And how do you make these educated guesses? Based on liquidity theory. Basically, since given that price has already swept the liquidity here, in my mind, it is going to take a gargantuan effort In order to continue coming up here, in order to take out the next liquidity level at $1, like this, this here is going to be a high resistance move. Why? Because the market makers have already used up all of the liquidity to pump XRP by 100% in a single day. Like right now, they need to refuel. Okay, that's how liquidity works. How do you refuel? By taking out sell-side liquidity, which is right here and right here, which is what we marked out. So in this case, It will— like, price coming down here for retracement to take liquidity, or coming down here to take liquidity during a retracement, is going to be a lower resistance move compared to just pumping the market straight up right now, right this instance. It doesn't mean that it's not going to continue going higher, but in the next move, I believe that it's going to be closer to a retracement rather than a boom type of move. And even if you were to go up, it's probably just to induce traders into thinking that it's going to go to the moon. Because frankly speaking, like, there is liquidity over there. Once we zoom into the lower time frames such as the 4-hourly, such as the 1-hourly, it's going to become clearer. If you retrace back into here, that's going to be a very good, like, sell level just to short it back to either here or either here. So basically what I'm trying to get at is you always want to determine what is the lower resistance move, what is the more likely move, and then you can decide what is going to be the next move. This is all just an educated guess. So what I'm thinking here is that price will retrace back into either here or here, probably more likely here, and then you're gonna potentially continue higher. Or what I think is the actually the most probable move is that here's another tip about the markets. Markets tend to move from periods of low volatility to periods of high volatility. What I mean by that is that high volatility, low volatility, high volatility, low volatility, high volatility, low volatility. High, low, high, low, high, low. You get the idea. Basically, this is one of the highest probability moves that we have seen in like a couple of years. And so what I really think is likely to happen is that you're just going to form a range. So range low, just take profit somewhere here or somewhere here. Then range high, okay, you build up liquidity, you build up liquidity. And the reason why market makers do this, the reason why the markets do this, is so that they can build up liquidity on both sides. Remember what I said earlier, In order for the markets to go anywhere, it needs fuel. In order to target this, which is going to take a gargantuan effort, you need fuel. Where do you get that fuel? Well, sometimes you might not be able to get it in the retrace. So what do you do? You engineer the liquidity into the markets by forming a range, because then retail traders are going to be looking at this like, oh, it's resistance, oh, support, or whatever. And then that's when you get more market participants. Believe it or not, you don't really get much market participants during this move upwards because frankly speaking, there's not much area for you to get into. So the best times for the market makers are actually during ranges because that's when they feast. They just take out all the liquidity on the upside. All right, a lot of people lost money. Now they go take out a lot of the buy side— sorry, sell side— and then a lot of people are going to lose money. And they just, you know, just ping pong the markets around. And that's why you see that in the markets. So that's the most likely scenario. I wouldn't necessarily FOMO into XRP at this point. Again, if you want to make money in crypto, you need to learn how to stay one step ahead of the curve, that's going to come from large caps. Like, when you know that the large caps are moving, you know the next move is coming, is going to be the midcaps. So you position yourself there in what's boring, when nobody's looking at them. That's when you position yourself there. And just a heads up, if you want to follow along with the trades that my coaches are calling, which— who are absolutely killing it, and set yourself up for this new quote-unquote alt season, check out the private Discord group using the link in the description box below. But if you actually wanna learn how to do this for yourself, I'm actually going to be launching a free course sometime next week that will teach you how to trade the markets like I do. And I promise you, it's not going to be one of those basic courses that is just going to teach you the absolute basics and nothing that you can actually take action on. This is actually going to change the way you trade. So if you're interested in that, make sure you sign up to the waitlist. In order to maintain the quality, we're going to be controlling the quantity. So the sooner you sign up, the better. But otherwise, I will see you guys in the next video. Bye-bye.