Bitcoin Bottoms, Ethereum Pumps From Here Next

What's up guys? Just going to be a quick one today. We're gonna talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now Bitcoin, in yesterday's video, I talked about how Trump's inauguration would be a really bullish event, but you should expect some kind of a retracement considering the fact that we are now at new all-time high territories as well as range high. Now I did mention yesterday that there were only 2 possibilities that would play out. But setup number 2, and arguably this is going to be the higher probability setup, is this demand zone right here. One is that first of all, we have formed a value area over here, and either you break out of the value area, treat the value area Flip it into potential support, and off you go to 114. That remains the short-term target, or at least the target for the next one or two weeks. I do expect Bitcoin to continue the all-time high movement and to continue pumping because for reasons mentioned yesterday, there is frankly speaking not too much of a reason why Bitcoin wouldn't continue going up. Funding rates are neutral, and across every single exit or rather top signal indicator that you can find on CoinGlass, on Glassnode, on. even the Bitcoin Magazine Pro, like the majority of these top signal indicators indicate that we are just about to start the pump. Price action on Bitcoin at the moment is very reminiscent to what we had back in 2020 and even 2020 or like 2018, sorry, 2017, where we are right about this phase at the moment where we are very close to the previous all-time high. And just coming back to current price action, yes, in the short term, like when I mean short term, I mean the immediate future, Yes, price is retracing, but it isn't without a plan. Yesterday I have given, well, 2 scenarios basically, and I did mention, and I did indicate strongly that you guys should manage your risk if you should take any one of these positions. Currently the first one is invalidated. Well, the scenario number one where we flipped previous resistance into potential support, this one failed. Okay, we move on. It is what it is. Now here's the second one. This is a full hourly demand zone, and at the moment this one still seems to be holding. Now this demand zone thesis right here is from all the way back in November when Trump actually got— well, rather Trump's election win was announced. And this was all the way back on Monday, uh, 4th of November. For those of you who remember, this is the elections. This was one week prior to the elections. Price pumped, or rather manipulated, and this one was essentially a bull trap because whoever went long at this point here would have been stopped out as price dumped pretty aggressively to the downside heading into election week. But prior to that happening, you actually formed a demand zone on the daily chart, and this demand zone ended up being the bottom right before announcement— well, got announced, and boop, price went. Now, this has been repeated many times in the past as well, but the key here is that this is a typical manipulation event prior to a really big, you know, presidential event, and ultimately this becomes the true bottom. And at the moment, price seems to be forming something similar as well, because this was one week prior to Trump's inauguration. As you can see, this was last week. Price went in to fill a weekly fair value gap. This is on the weekly chart, so very high significance, very high strength. Not only that, but you deviated below the value area, right? Whenever you deviate below the value area, this is known as a discount. Whenever you go above the value area, this is known as a premium. So this would have been a great place to sell. This would have been a great place to buy. Now, this of course is adding in with multiple confluences, such as you have swept the range low. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 relatively equal lows get swept with this one move here. You fill in a weekly key level, which is a weekly fair value gap. You sweep all of the liquidity and boom. Plus the deviation below the range low, plus the deviation below the value area low means that this is very likely going to be the bottom, which means that everything is pointing towards bullish conditions. And now all we have to do is to navigate the short term and to find some kind of a high probability entry. Ultimately, the market is gonna go up and do not get shaken out here because things are just about to start. That is sincerely my belief. And I think people are gonna look back at this period in about 1 month's time and they are gonna highly regret it if they do not just make some kind of play buying something. Like it doesn't have to be Bitcoin, it could be anything at this current moment. Now let's get into an update on the entry. I still expect this level to be a just decent probability entry. My conviction has not changed. This is a typical setup that I usually take where you have a liquidity sweep right here, right? Right after you sweep liquidity, you break the high. So this becomes your typical broken base. This is one of the highest probability entry models that I have at my disposal. And based on everything, like, yeah, because all of my criteria has been adding up, then boom, I'm just going to take the setup. Manage my risk, and that's that, right? Because if I do end up winning this trade, it's going to be 4.5 Rs, which means for every $1,000 that you risk, you stand to gain $4,500 back, which is a really good risk-to-reward trade and something that you should take all the time as long as other factors are checked out. This is a very key mindset that a trader or any trader needs to have, which is if you see a setup, it doesn't matter how uncertain you feel. It's not about your feelings, right? It's about trading what the market's showing you. And as long as your setup is present, take it. As long as your setup is not present, you wait until that setup, you know, shows itself, and then boom. Obviously, the more confluences that you can stack on top of whatever setup that you have, that's going to make it a much better setup compared to others. You know, I wouldn't say this is an A+ setup, but it's definitely an A-class setup, and it's something that I take all the time with a proven edge and proven profitability over the long term. So I'm still gonna stand strong on this entry right here and this trade right here. Yes, there is always going to be a risk that this gets stopped out. It's just a part of the game. Probabilities. It's high probability, but it doesn't mean 100%. And at the end of the day, the only— like, this shouldn't even matter because if you have your risk managed, you know, the losses are just a part of the game, just as much as winning is. So even though I say that, the other condition that you guys should definitely watch out for is the fact that yes, we are at range highs. Yes, we are at all-time highs. And yes, this could just be another deviation. Like back here where you deviate above the range high, that ends up being the top and boom, you accept back into the value area. The only thing different about what's happening this time around is the fact that you have not yet broken back into the value area. This is another one of those confluences that I'm sort of banking on. Not only do we have that demand zone, but this is essentially value area high support. Currently you have already broken above the value area high. And yes, this value area right here is not to be confused with this major one right here, because if you look at the daily chart, This is very significant. This one right here doesn't even show up on the map. And so all of the signs still point to this potentially being the support. But if this trade gets stopped out, then there's just only one other scenario that you need to keep in mind, which is the fact that first of all, this is also a broken base on the larger timeframe. So if you take a look at this liquidity over here, you swept this liquidity and immediately you break structure to the upside. This is happening on the daily chart. You can see it on the 4-hourly chart. But on a higher timeframe, that's what matters, that you have a broken base. Again, this is one of the highest probability entry models that I have, which also makes this potentially a double confirmation if you look at it from the 4-hourly chart. A double confirmation is just the A+ of like A+ setups, which is why again, I am sticking to my conviction with this setup. But the point here being is that first of all, there is a potential that price retraces a little bit further because based on this broken base right here, The 50% line of just this broken base is actually at the previous level of support, right? The value area high. So again, just another point of little confluence that not only do you have a demand zone, but you also have value area high potentially turning into support. But the key thing here is that if we zoom in, you can see that the first fair value gap that we see on the daily chart— this is a bullish PD array— is actually all the way here at $96,500. So if this trade gets stopped out, that only means that there is one last scenario that could be possible on Bitcoin, which is the fact that price is retracing into, within this trading range right here, a 0.618 to 0.705 retracement with a daily fair value gap. This is the same concept that we use to predict the, well, the absolute bottom during this retracement, which is in the weekly fair value gap. In this case, this is a daily fair value gap. And so again, yes, The bottom is in, but in the short term, do not be surprised if you get some kind of retracement all the way back to $96,500. If you do though, then the entry is gonna be very straightforward. Knowing that this is going to be the bottom, that's your invalidation, that's your entry, and your take profit is gonna be at least at $114,000 and potentially even higher. For example, if we were to draw a fib from low to high and we start predicting where could be the future top, you can see that a -1 standard deviation expansion puts us at $128,000. And potentially at $140,000. But no matter what, this is TP1 and everything above this is going to be your TP2, perhaps potentially even a TP3. What matters is that overall we're in an uptrend. Overall bottom is very likely in based on multiple confluences. This is again broken base, one of the highest probability entry models that I have. And yeah, just guys, don't be shaken out here. The conviction, or at least the long-term game plan is the same. We are still very much in a bull market. None of the exit indicators have indicated some kind of a retracement. None of the top signal indicators have indicated that we are at a top, and so this is not the blow-off top. This is just a temporary retracement within an overall uptrend. So just keep this in mind. Right now we're just trying to navigate the short term to find an entry, and yes, we are going to lose a couple of times, but overall when we do— like, just to give you an idea, even on this trade right here, that's a 2.5 risk-to-reward ratio. Even if we were to lose 1, 2, and ultimately find this as the, you know, the ultimate entry then just this win alone at just this first TP target is going to give us back more money than we lost on both of these losses. This is why risk-reward is so important. So that's the update on Bitcoin, like still playing, like still holding strong to this entry. Um, in this case, I might even consider moving my stop just a tiny bit lower, but honestly, it doesn't quite— it doesn't really matter. Now at this point, some people might ask like, hey, if you are expecting this level to be potential support, then wouldn't that mean price will eventually hit this level before bouncing? And so wouldn't I move my stop loss here? Well, not necessarily, because this setup was traded, or rather was taken, based on a 4-hourly demand zone. And because of that, uh, if I'm banking on the fact that this 4-hourly demand zone is going to hold, then my invalidation should be here. Because after this entry gets taken out, most likely I'm going to be looking at this daily fair value gap here to be the entry number 2, or just like a backup plan or Plan B or like the high probability entry. So hopefully that gives you a little bit more insight into the thought process that I'm using here. And most importantly, like guys, I'm always trying to share value in these videos and I'm always sharing like lessons and advice that is a little bit outside of the scope of just general price action and the general trade that I'm talking about. And it's also that I can just help you guys more. A lot of the times this type of advice tends to fly past a lot of people's heads. Some people might think it's unnecessary, but guys, Honestly, these are lessons that, or rather these are mindsets that took me quite literally years before I was able to adopt them. And ultimately these like advice or like just general mindset of a trader is what allowed me to finally crack the code of profitability. And so don't disregard this. I know it's kind of boring. It's not just exciting talking about trades and stuff. I was like that at some point. It's like, hey, just gimme the trade or like just gimme the sauce. Don't talk about all of these mindset things. And yet the more I progress through my trading journey, the more I realize the importance of all of these, you know, advices, right? All of these advice that would've honestly prevented me from losing a lot of money and went through a lot of headache. Now let's just talk about Ethereum for a moment because a lot of you have been asking for an Ethereum video and I have not made one in a while. And this is just going to be a high-level overview of Ethereum. And there are only 3 levels that truly matter. One is that you had a range here, and second of all, you have a range here. Recently, Prior to the retracement, price hit the range high and retraced almost all the way back to the range low. Now obviously this was the overall, you know, AMD. So for example, this was your accumulation, this is your manipulation, and this is your distribution, which further proves the point that currently the market is in an overall uptrend given the fact that the overall distribution, like, direction is towards the upside. And so I expect this to continue. Right now we just need to look for areas to get into longs, at least in the immediate short term. And this is where I'm going to bring all of your attention to a demand zone. Again, we are going to have proof that this type of setup has worked in the past before. This exact zone here is the point right before an aggressive move upwards. Okay, and always we want to go back to the original point of like before the big pumps happen. And because this area is going to give us a lot of signs and a very high probability entry area that we can get into should price return back into this zone. This is known as a demand zone. By the way, and what you want to look for is some kind of a drop, right? An aggressive drop, 1 or 2 or maybe 3, like just indecisive candles, right? And in this case, this would be your indecisive candle. Price tried to go up, tried to go down, but ultimately did just a lot of nothing. Same goes for this candle. And so I'm going to draw out these 2 candles, like the range between these 2 candles, as the demand zone. Now, of course, this can be a little bit objective. You could say the demand zone will be here to here. It could be here. It could even Go all the way down to here, but honestly, it doesn't matter. The point is this is the demand zone and price. If the demand zone holds, it's very unlikely that price is going to dip very much below the 0.5 of the demand zone. 0.5 just means the midpoint, and you can see it right here. Like about a month later, price actually does fill the demand zone and actually shoots up pretty aggressively. And the way that you use these demand zones is entry at the start of the demand zone. Stop at the end of the demand zone. And in this case here, the best possible outcome of this trade would've given you an 8:1 risk to reward ratio, which means for every $1,000 that you put in, you stand to gain $8,000 back, which is why I am such a fan of this entry model in particular, and why I'm about to draw your attention to another one of these demand zones that we currently have on the chart at the moment in terms of the 4-hourly chart. And this right here comes with 2 weak lows. Now, the reason why these are weak lows is because these are lows that did not form after, you know, liquidity sweeps. For example, right now these are relatively equal lows, and you have a demand zone right underneath this level, which means that if price were to dip below this level, sweep all of the liquidity, fill in the demand zone, then everyone who were impatient to get into a trade at any point within this range here would likely be stopped out. And guess what? You have a demand zone. This is the original point before the aggressive pump began. This is also a For hourly, broken base. For those of you who had a detailed eye and you saw this, this is a broken base. This is your previous liquidity. You have swept the liquidity. This is sell-side liquidity sweep that immediately leads to a break in market structure towards the upside. And so again, this fits the entry model, or rather the high probability entry model that I use in my personal trading. Currently, this demand zone lines up with the 0.705 within this broken base, and so a retracement into this zone After sweeping liquidity is going to provide a very high probability entry area for you to get in. Your stop is gonna be right underneath the demand zone, and your target in this case is going to be pretty straightforward. Just draw a fib from this low to this high. And currently we're looking at this previous range high, which is right at about $4,150. Well, which would give this an 8.5 to 1 risk to reward ratio, which is an amazing trade if this were to play out. And I have a pretty good feeling that this is going to play out. In the way that we are expecting it. Now, there is also another possibility that, again, given the fact that this is a demand zone formed on the 4-hourly chart, it might hold a little less significance versus something that's a bit higher time frame. So I just want to draw your attention to one more thing. If you look at the 12-hourly chart, you can see that this is indeed a demand zone, right? This is where price began the aggressive pump. This is your drop. You have somewhat of an indecisive candle. I wouldn't say this is the most indecisive candle, But ultimately, this is where the pump began. Currently, prices came in to fill this quote unquote demand. Although again, this is not a textbook demand zone, but still it fulfills the broken base where you have your range, price retraces back into 0.618, price fills in a fair value gap right here. And so there is also a possibility that price could just pump from here. Although again, this would not fit all of the criteria of my entry model. This would not be a like A+ setup, whereas this, in this case, this would be an A+ setup. So guys, does not mean that this has no validity, but there is also a possibility that a momentum entry, just buying long here and placing a stop loss here, could be a real thing. But again, I can only speak from what I'm going to personally do. This is not like I'm just telling you guys what to do. This is— I'm generally just sharing with you my exact game plan and my exact trading plan. And in this case, I'm gonna be prioritizing this entry much more than this entry. And so just keep an eye out for that. And of course, if price were to, you know, continue pumping and I were to miss out on this entry, that's perfectly fine as well because opportunities in crypto as well as trading in general is just so many that ultimately you just want to filter out. Like, again, your trading plan and your system acts as a compass for you to navigate like the really chaotic waters of trading. If you just start taking any random trade that looks good to you, guess what's going to happen? Your results are also going to be reflected With that randomness, there are going to be periods where you have a lot of ups and some periods where you have a lot of downs. And chances are your down periods are gonna be more than the up periods. And that's because of the amount of randomness that you are introducing to your trading purely by the fact that you are not sticking to your trading system. This is why all of these people say like discipline is really important in trading and it truly does. So have a system, stick to it. In this case, this does not fit my entry criteria for like an A+ setup. And so again, as a trader, you're paid based on the quality of the decisions that you make, not on the quantity of the decisions that you make. And so ultimately, try to prioritize the higher quality entries, and that is going to be your recipe to succeed over the long run as a trader. And of course, if you would like to follow along all of my trades, as well as all of the early plays that I'm taking, as well as just maybe learn the exact trading system that I'm using, welcome to join the AOC Alpha Group where we are printing money every single day. I say this not because I am trying to get a cash grab, but honestly because I think this is going to benefit all of you that joins the AOC Alpha Group. The proof is in the pudding. Like, we've had so many wins that it is undeniable. But anyways, if you're still here at this point in the video, I think the right thing for you to do is to drop a like button. It truly does make my day. And if you want to see more of these analyses done based on a smart money perspective when it comes to crypto, then click the subscribe button down below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Peace.