Bitcoin ($BTC) and Crypto Price Prediction/Analysis 2021 | How low will Bitcoin/Crypto Markets Drop?

What's up everybody, welcome back to The Art Of Crypto, the birthplace of absolutely legendary gains. In this video, we will be doing something a little bit different, and that is the fact that we are going to be doing a general crypto market analysis. And this video will teach you how to approach trading this market for the next few days and perhaps the upcoming couple of weeks. So if you're someone that is absolutely panicking right now because the crypto market is dumping Or perhaps you got liquidated because you overleveraged yourself. This is the video for you, and it'll tell you what to expect in the immediate short term. But before we get right into it, I just wanted to let you know that if you watch till the end of this video, you are going to pick up on a lot of pro tips and tricks and how I approach the markets. So if you watch till the end, you will thank yourself for it. But before we dive right into it, I just wanted to let you know that in yesterday's video, I called that we should be expecting a little bit of downside for PancakeSwap and to look for a bounce on either one of these 2 levels. And look what happened. Price came spot on to my line of support and bounced 20% from that point. So if you haven't watched the video, I want you to go watch it after this video. So back to the general crypto market analysis. And when we talk about crypto, we must start off with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the mama bear and everything follows Bitcoin. If Bitcoin dumps, everything will dump. If Bitcoin pumps, Everything's gonna stay still for a while, but after that, it will pump. But anyways, I digress. So if we just take a look on the Bitcoin daily chart right now, you can see that we are very clearly forming a lower low on the daily chart right now. And just to put this into perspective, you can see that all the way back to September of 2020, we have not yet formed a lower low. Bitcoin has just been consistently climbing and climbing and climbing. At this moment right now, it seems that we have formed our first lower low since last year. But not all hope is lost because simply the formation of a lower low does not signify anything. Because what we would need to confirm a downtrend would be for a lower high to form, which means the price will need to come up and form a lower high. So once this is confirmed, then you can know that we are officially in a downtrend because The confirmation of the lower high simply signifies that people in the market have grown fearful and that they are looking to take profits sooner, rather than being optimistic that it will continue to go to the moon. So until we get this kind of a formation, I wouldn't worry too much, and I would absolutely look for the price to bounce either at this point right here or at a major support level of Bitcoin, namely the $48K level, Slash the $47.5K level and the $44K level. So the prime entry, if you were planning to go long, would be a double bottom formation or a bullish engulfing candle on either one of these levels. Now, why am I talking about $44K? That is because, to be honest, the $44K level, as you can see right here, is at a level of a 21-week exponential moving average, and it usually acts as very good support during a bull run. So you could in fact see that even if we were to dump all the way down to $44K, which is another 10% drop from our current, current point right now, the bull market would perfectly still be intact. The bull run is not over, and this is definitely not the cycle top. And I believe that most of the crypto YouTubers and content creators out there are telling you not to panic and to buy the dips in part because of this 21-week Exponential moving average, because as you can see, it has been a very long time since we have came down to test it. In fact, since September. So even if the price were to come all the way here, I do not want you to panic, and I would definitely look to add to my bags, whether it be on Bitcoin or on altcoins, when Bitcoin touches this level. And besides that, there is one other thing I would like to cover, which is the fact that if we zoom into the Bitcoin daily chart, You can see that the money flow has been very high for a very long time, and we are just about to start crossing into the red, which means by conventional Market Cipher standards, we should be expecting a downtrend incoming. Which is why I would absolutely look out for Market Cipher on the daily chart. I do not wanna see the money flow crossing confidently into the red, because that would mean that we will absolutely come down to test either the $44K level Or even the $40K level. And I know that there are a lot of people speculating about the reason for this Bitcoin crash, but truthfully, I wouldn't say it's the fault of Turkey. I wouldn't say it's the fault of Biden. If you look at it very objectively, you can see that in fact, it is merely people getting overly optimistic and people getting overly greedy. See, there is a saying, buy fear, sell greed. And that is why you must condition yourself to get really fearful when you see lots of green in the market And to get really excited when you see lots of red in the market, because that is where the money is made. But I digress, back to the topic of how do we trade this market right now. So let's zoom in onto the 4-hourly chart to get a better picture. And I would like to tell you what I was thinking the last few days when I posted the GRT setup. See, usually on Market Cipher, when we form an anchor wave and then subsequently a trigger wave, as you can see over here, See, notice how this wave was shorter than this wave. That would be your trigger wave. Usually that would mean that momentum is shifting upwards, and unless there were to be a black swan event, that would be the bottom. And today it seems that we have gotten the black swan event because I was not expecting another anchor wave to form, which is why I posted those setups and why I believe they were looking bullish. But I also did mention that nothing is confirmed until it is confirmed, and And I did say in every single video and on my Twitter as well, I was saying that the market's still uncertain. Simply expect more downside until the downtrend is proven otherwise, either by a double bottom or a higher low, higher high formation. So if you have not yet followed me on _TheArtOfCrypto, this is where I'm posting the most real-time updates and highly profitable crypto trading setups, and you do not want to miss them. So back to the video. Here's what I mean by expect more downside until proven otherwise. See, the way trends work is you tend to not want to trade against the trend. So if the market has been consistently forming higher lows and higher highs, you want to go with the trend. So you expect more upside until otherwise proven so by either a double top, a head and shoulders pattern, an ascending wedge, a lower low, and a lower high formation. So in the last few days, the moment we broke below this low and closed below it on the four-hourly, we have officially formed a downtrend. So I was always saying look out for confirmation because until we form a higher low, we are still considered in a downtrend. So here is how I would trade this market. Method number one: because we know that everything is going into a downtrend right now, this could be prime. Dip buying opportunities because you can see Bitcoin at early March prices as well as late February prices. So that is method number 1, which is to dollar cost average in at major support levels. And the way you determine major support levels is simply by looking at areas where the price tended to react to. So for example, on this $44K level, you can see that the price finds support not just 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, You get the point. So you wanna look for these areas of support and resistance, and you wanna dollar cost average. So what do I mean by dollar cost averaging? Simply, it is just, say I buy 1 Bitcoin at $53K. If it comes down to $50K, I look to buy 2 Bitcoin, which brings my overall position down. And if it reaches this support line right here, I would buy 4 Bitcoin, which brings my position even lower. And continuing on, At $44K, I would buy 8 Bitcoin. You get the idea, which is why I always preach to never ever play with overly large position sizes and to keep your account liquid for dip buying opportunities like this. Imagine if Bitcoin dumps all the way to $44K right now and you are someone who just got into crypto, say, early March. You would be able to buy Bitcoin at this price, and when it eventually rebounds all the way back up to $67K, You would've made 50% on your decision to buy the dip. And that, my friends, is how most of the smart money plays this game. And that is how most of their money is made, by buying the fear and selling the greed. See, the thing about the crypto markets is there are a lot of people who absolutely do not know what they are doing, and they just get overly optimistic. And it was evident that the market was getting overly greedy By just taking a look at the funding rates for most perpetual future contracts on most coins, they were hovering at like 0.3, 0.4 levels, which is ridiculous. Whenever you see funding rates go that high, you wanna start getting the hell out. And I was calling this in my WhatsApp private group, but that's not open to the public. More information on my newly formed private group at the end of the video though, so stick around. So here's what I'm getting at. Strategy number 1, you buy the dips because there's no reason to be concerned. The only reason you would be concerned is because you bought Bitcoin in one lump sum when it was at $60,000, and now you have no cash liquid leftover to buy the dips. And at the same time, you are down 25% on your portfolio. That is the only reason you are panicking right now. And to you guys out there that are in that kind of a situation, I just want to let you know that as long as you're on spot, There is zero reason to panic because in a bull market, everything comes up with time, be it 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, everything will come back up. So if you're on spot, just hodl because I guarantee you, you will regret selling your bags at a loss right now. And for those of you who are in that kind of a situation, I just want you to learn your lesson. See, traditional advice would tell you to keep 25% of your account liquid at all times. to buy dips like this. But what I do is I keep 50% to 60% of my account liquid at all times just to buy dips like this, which means all the way that it's been coming down, I've just been doubling and adding to my positions. And I wholeheartedly believe that if it goes even all the way down to $40K, it will rebound. And if it does rebound, the average price of my Bitcoin would be about, who knows, $42K, $44K. And if it rebounds all the way back up to $67K in, let's say, a month, 2 months, I would have made an easy 50% there just by choosing to do what everyone else wasn't willing to do, which is to buy the fear. When conventional wisdom, when the general market consensus is very fearful, that is when you start getting to work. That is when you start buying. Because when the market gets hopeful again, as you can see by what happened in the recent days, that when the market does get hopeful, it is probably too late and you're simply gonna be just be stuck holding large bags. So that is method number 1. Method number 2, which is for the slightly riskier traders out there, is to short the market. See, if you look onto the 4-hourly chart on most coins except Ethereum, Ethereum is doing well. So if you just look on the 4-hourly chart on most coins, just, I want you to just enable a 200 exponential moving average, a 50, and a 21 exponential moving average. You will see that Most coins, the price has fallen below all 3 of these levels. So how is that important? Well, first off, similar to how in an uptrend, these exponential moving averages tend to act as pretty good areas of value. See, notice how the price tested the 200 and bounced, tested 200, bounced, tested 200, bounced. Similarly, in a bear trend, prices will test the 200 EMA as well, but it will go in the opposite direction. In fact, if you pay close attention, this line right here that is grayed out is in fact a 21 exponential moving average. And look how many times the price came up to retest this and dropped. So if you're someone that is looking to short the market, now would be a pretty fun time to do so, I'm not gonna lie. Simply, the method that you use to short the market is on the 4-hourly chart, or perhaps the 1-hourly chart, you use these exponential moving averages as areas of value, and you wanna look for patterns like this. Notice how the price came up to test the 50 EMA, and on the next candle close, we have a bearish engulf candle. Which, as the name suggests, the red candle engulfed the bull candle, and that would be your entry. So your entry would have been right here, your stop loss would have been right above, say, the 50 EMA, and that would have been an easy 10% profit. Besides from using the exponential moving averages, you can use the support and resistance lines as well, because as we all like to say, previous support becomes future resistance. So notice how the price found support at this level right here at 50K, and now the price is getting rejected. If you can see right here, the price is getting rejected off of the 50K level. So previous support becomes future resistance. So you can absolutely look for the similar kind of pattern, which is a bearish engulfing pattern, to get in. In this case, your profits would have been much less, but it is profits nonetheless. So if you want to do shorting, It is very important that you know how to identify your support and resistance lines. And besides that, you can also acquire your areas of value by drawing a Fibonacci extension, by drawing a Fibonacci retracement from swing top to swing low. And all of these Fibonacci levels could act as pretty good support/resistance for your shorting adventures. So if there's any takeaways that you might get from the crash this time around, it's to not be overly optimistic and know Never ever play with overly large position sizes because you're missing out on so much money. And remember, it is a widely known fact that 90% of traders are losing traders, which means 90% of people are losing money. Which means doesn't it make sense that as long as you're not losing money, you're already ahead of 90% of people? So sometimes, and as for me all the time, being in no trade can be better than always being in a trade because you don't need. To always be in a trade in order to make money in the markets. I make my money when we get dumps like this. That is where I'm buying. I'm not buying the tops. And in fact, whenever I do chart analysis, whenever I go through my list of coins that I'm following, regular people or newbies would start off by looking at the coins that have pumped the most. I do the opposite. I always start off with the coins that are the deepest in the red. Because I know that when a coin is in the red, nobody else is looking at them, which means I will be getting in at a discount before everyone realizes what kind of a pattern has formed. And when they do realize what kind of a pattern has formed and they jump into the markets, my entry would be so much lower than them, it would almost be laughable. And oftentimes, just by simply doing this, I find myself having 20 to even 50% more profits than the next guy That got in later than me. So 2 things you can do, buy the dips if you have the funds, or you can short the market, absolutely. Of course, do not play with overly high leverage. Even when I am shorting the markets, I just go maximum 5x leverage. And I just want you to remember that we must expect more downside until otherwise proven so, which means until we get a double bottom formation on, say, the 4-hourly chart, or a higher low and a higher high, Expect more downside. But at the moment, for the bulls, here is my case for you. Remember how I said that when this anchor wave formed right here and this trigger wave formed, I was expecting the price to go up from here? But we had a black swan event and we ended up forming another anchor wave, which means here is what I'm calling. I am calling for the 44K level to be the bottom of any future Bitcoin dumps, because at that point, what I'm predicting will happen is that the price will. Probably come down like that, and it will come back down. And at this leg down right here, the price would go all the way down here, but the momentum is obviously shifting up, which means that is a trigger wave. And from this point on, the price will continue to form higher lows, and we will come up to test the 200 EMA and perhaps break above the 200 EMA and goes back to the moon. So that is the case for the Bitcoin bulls, but until we get that kind of a formation Until we get a trigger wave, I do not want anybody going on to leverage longs until we get the confirmation of this trigger wave right here. And now, if you feel like this market dump has got you absolutely shaken up, perhaps you have lost a lot of money, or perhaps you just want to take your trading to the next level, or perhaps you want the ability to simply be able to navigate the markets like I do in my videos, to be able to go into any chart, be it the stock market, be it forex or crypto, if you want to have that ability to read the charts masterfully and know what's going to happen before it's going to happen, I just wanted to let you know that starting next month my private group will be open. This is where you're going to have the chance to learn my trading philosophy and my proprietary strategy on how I make absolutely legendary gains, and there are only 50 early access spots open where you will be getting a lifetime 75% off the full price compared to everyone else that joins later on. This is the group that I guarantee you that if you enter, it will pay itself off in just one single trade, and the knowledge that you acquire will be 10x worth the value that you are paying. By the time you learn the strategies that I teach you, you will be the 5% of traders that are wildly profitable. And I guarantee you will never be stuck holding your bags through a massive, massive dump ever again. So if you're interested to properly learn trading for yourself, if you're serious about doing this for a long, long time and you want to be confident in your own ability to read charts, then this is the group for you. Because it's only going to be a small group, I will be able to dedicate focused attention to all of you guys, and I will make sure I get all of you up to speed and proficiently trading the crypto markets. So if you're interested, I want you to mark down May the first and secure one of your fifty spots at patreon.com/artofcrypto. And with that, my friend, may the gains be with you. Stay safe out there. Peace.