Bitcoin Crash: Is The Bull Run Over?

In last week's video, I said that if Bitcoin did not hold this level and form a new higher low, then we would be seeing a $50K Bitcoin potentially staring us in the face. Well, this week it happened way sooner than I expected. And I also told you guys that my timeline for this all happening was within a couple of weeks. Well, we got that within a few days. So good news is that, you know, the majority of the move has already happened. The bad news is that the market is down by a lot and a lot of altcoins are down pretty much 70 to 80% compared to just A couple months ago. So in this video, I'm going to dive into: Is this the bottom? Should you be buying here? Is there more downside coming? And just generally answering the question: What is the best move currently in these market conditions? So without any further ado, let's dive into it. When Bitcoin was still here back then, we said already that this was a confirmed lower high, which meant that market structure was indeed still bearish. But then you had a very clear, you know, break of structure over here and a very clear broken base. And so you were to retrace back into the 705. I was expecting this level to hold as some kind of support, but ended up the markets. Disagreed with me. And the reason why we got all these dumps at the moment, well, you can boil it down into a few reasons, but this post here summarizes everything pretty well. Essentially, there was a catalyst that led to this happening. First, you saw it across the currency pairs. For example, one of the currency pairs that is widely respected in the entire world is the USD/JPY. And just over the last, I'd say, couple weeks, not even couple weeks, like just over the last month alone, that's fell by 12%. Now, for those of you who are not familiar with forex, A 12% move over such a short period of time, like, forex is not crypto. If a currency pair moves by like 5% in a year, it's considered a pretty volatile year already. And all of this happened in the span of 25 trading days, which means about 5 weeks. Of course, this has had catastrophic events across the industry. For example, the S&P 500 is down 10% just within the last month. Bitcoin's down like 30 to 40%. So all of this is happening in a perfect storm. This is just one chain of event after the other. And most of these news are currently negative. And if you look at what I've talked about in the past before, you can see that bottoms tend to form at around, you know, bad news. At this bottom here, it was formed by FOMC fears and like really poor ETF inflows. Over here, the high was basically confirmed after we saw peak ETF inflows into Bitcoin. And if you remember clearly, this was the 4th time that Bitcoin was hovering at around the $70K level. And then we got the bottom after Mt. Gox and Germany announced that they were selling all their Bitcoin. And then right here, we got the top after Trump's— well, basically after Trump gave a speech at the Bitcoin conference saying that he was planning to turn Bitcoin into the United States strategic reserve. And right now, I believe that we are Another one of these, you know, the world is burning type of bad news events. It's just a chain of like bad after bad after bad after bad. And news aside, that's the fundamental side of things. Like we also have to look at price action, right? Right now, I definitely don't think that you know bull market is over. Like we're never going to tap these highs ever again. We're never going to go to seventy k ever again. That is definitely not the case for me because now that we've looked at the fundamentals, it's time to look at the technicals for a bit. Remember how in last week's video I said that if this level doesn't hold, then we're going to see you know a fifty k Bitcoin. And the reason why I said that that was the level and how I was. Basically able to predict it almost to the dollar is because this level right here presents a key level of liquidity when you look at the daily chart. Essentially, anyone that went long at any point throughout this move until price came back to this level, everyone here who did not take profit or close their trade whatsoever is going to be in profit. And so you have to come back down to stop out all these people. You got to remember that the entities that move these markets are called market makers, and it is not in their best interest to let you make money. One thing you have to understand about the crypto markets is that this is a zero-sum game. When you make money In a trade, you're not just making that money out of thin air. You're taking it from someone else. For every dollar that you win, someone else is losing that dollar. And when it comes to these markets that are controlled by the market makers, every dollar that you make is $1 out of their pocket. So it is in their best interest to prevent you from making money as much as possible. Because of that, you come back to stop these lows. It's a pretty logical explanation. So now we have to look further, which is what is the next low that could potentially get stopped out? And you would have to go all the way back to like $40K Bitcoin for that to happen. And Is that likely to happen? Well, I don't think so. First of all, remember how I said that this level here was the 0.618, basically the golden pocket of a fib from this low to this high? Well, guess what? Price that we're at right now is in the golden pocket of this macro range that was formed between the end of January to March, which is essentially when the Bitcoin ETF got confirmed and Bitcoin basically went double. Basically right now, there is no reason to panic and to think that Bitcoin's gonna come all the way down here until you just get a really confirmed candle closure, like beneath this area right here. Until anything is confirmed, like this area is going to act as very, very strong support, Which means that at current prices, as of the time that you're watching this video, as long as it's still within like a 5% range of this area, it's generally a pretty good idea to buy some Bitcoin here. Now, of course, this is with the expectation that you're going to be holding on to this Bitcoin for a little bit, i.e., at least 3 to 6 months for things to play out. Because right now I'm going to discuss like what's the next potential move from here on out. We've already established the fact that it's very unlikely that Bitcoin's going to come to here. And the reason for that is because look, you have 1, 2, 3, 4, like 5 relatively equal highs over there. Anyone that went short on Bitcoin throughout this entire point, same concept. Right? They are all in profit, and until you come back to stop them out, there is no reason to start coming down for sell-side liquidity. And also, if you were to look at it from another perspective, you can also say that Bitcoin currently is in a range where that is your range high and that is your range low. You currently just swept the range low, and usually 80% of the time, the price that sweeps one side of the range tends to have a tendency to stay in the range 80% of the time. And so you can see over here you have another range, right? Got range low, high, low, low first, and then high, and then eventually you come back to take out the low. Like, just to give you an example, you can see that there is another range over here where you have, you know, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, pretty much like 6 to 7 instances of price like staying within the range before it broke out. And even then it tried to come back within, and even then it tried to come back to take out the range highs before dumping again. And so right now, this is the first time that we have tapped this level. So it makes just total sense for this to just start going up from here. Now, is that going to happen immediately? No. Let me get into why I think that is. One thing you need to understand about the markets is that price always moves from periods of high volatility to periods of low volatility, high, and then you consolidate, high, High volatility, and then you consolidate. And obviously the more explosive that movement, for example, this movement here, you can see just how long the consolidation period has been. We were to zoom out like really far, then you can see that this entire block that we're in right now is just a consolidation for the next leg up. One thing's for sure, if you're not yet exposed to the crypto markets, you're not too late. One thing that you should definitely expect over the next week is that this week's gonna be pretty boring, at least in terms of Bitcoin, right? It's probably just going to consolidate between, you know, say $56,000, like $55,000, because this is where you have previous candle body, plus you have the true monthly open. from last month. And then right here, this is your low that you formed. So essentially, I'm fully expecting Bitcoin to just hover within like $56K to $50K, just within this range, for at least a couple of weeks before we see any sort of confirmed movement outside of the range. Of course, things could change. If you see like just confirmed signs that the market is going up from here without consolidating, then that's another beautiful sign that you can jump right in because the liquidity has been swept. And usually my word of advice for the majority of people is to actually wait for Bitcoin to break out of that consolidation. So ideally what you want to see is some kind High forming, like so this is your range, right? So ideally you want to see some kind of liquidity sweep, right? Sell side liquidity sweep, break the high, retest, and then up, right? This is where you enter. So this is the exact kind of setup that you want to see on Bitcoin, and this is going to take at least a week to play out. This is the highest probability one. It sure beats like just buying a falling knife right now and you know praying for the best. Now of course that is a valid strategy if you are someone who likes to play life the risky way. If that's you, then there's nothing wrong with that. Just expect to give yourself some leeway because you're not going to be perfect at timing the quote unquote bottom. But if If we get this kind of setup, like exactly this kind of setup at these range lows, and that is exactly the trigger that I will be looking for to go on a giga long on Bitcoin because the next move is going to lead us higher. And when I say higher, assuming that this is the bottom, of course, like if we get, if we go lower, just move it down. The next calculated move is going to bring us to at least $85,000, $86,000, and potentially even close to $100K. And if you do this type of setup, then what you're looking at right here is a potential 6.5x, potential 10x trade. But of course, the point is that this is one of those trades that you can take with size and If you were to put a good solid chunk of your portfolio in and get 50% returns on that, that's a big win. If you can return 50% on the year, you're already ahead of like 99% of the population. So do not scoff at it just because it doesn't look like a lot in terms of crypto. Now I have to give you like one other bit of advice, and this is going to help save a lot of you from holding onto coins that are doing absolutely nothing. I want you to think back to past dips, whether it be from a previous bull run or this bull run itself. How many times have you bought coins that ended up doing absolutely nothing? In fact, as other coins were like going up by 5x, your coin is not even back to its previous low or its previous high. If you've been in that situation before, here's the guideline that you must follow. One, turn on your TradingView. This is your watchlist, right? Sort by change, like percentage change. This will give you an idea on which coins are dumping the least and which coins are dumping the most. For example, let's take a look at ENS. I am big on ENS, right? The problem is that with this dump, my average buy price was $23. I was already stopped out at breakeven. For the majority of the time, it was sitting at above $23, but it is what it is. So So would I buy into ENS right now, or would I, you know, buy into something else? Well, first of all, given the fact that I am big on ENS, I have already bought back in. Unless you have this kind of like high certainty or high conviction into a coin, and you have a really good reason as to why you want to buy a certain coin, then the second best criteria that you should use is to look at relative strength. For example, ORN is up currently about 60% from its lows, and this is all happening within just a couple of hours. This is a really good sign because one rule that you must always follow— this is the cardinal rule for preventing yourself from not making money— is that the coins that remain the strongest during dips are going to be also the strongest coins coming out of the dip. So for example, it's as easy as doing a relative strength, you know, measurement between, for example, let's say currently I'm considering between Solana and ETH. So let's just measure from Solana to current price, it's like 12%. And let's just go into the 4-hourly chart on Ethereum and let's see from the bottom to here, it's about, it's roughly about the same, 10%, 11%, 12%, so be it. But the The moment I start looking at, you know, this is one of my highest conviction coins. I already made a video about my cat token thesis and exactly my picks for cat meme coins. You can see that PopCat currently is not falling behind ORN by a lot because this is up about 32% from the lows at current price, right? And compare that to Solana. Unless you have a really strong reason for why you wanna get into Solana, chances are PopCat's gonna perform way better than Solana coming out of the dip. The third rule that you should follow is that you wanna follow the coins that have the narrative. For example, even though I believe that Web3 gaming is going to blow up, you know, eventually, I don't think that's going to happen sometime during this cycle. So when I am making a decision about what coin to buy into, I'm going to pick the ones that have performed the best throughout this bull run. And one good website that I will link in the description box below is this one called Dune Analytics. Like this specific website here tells you the narratives year to date and as well as their performance comparatively speaking. You can see that meme coins lead the pack a lot. It used to be like 300% just a week ago and real-world assets. These both are like the top-tier performing asset classes within this bull run. And one thing you have to understand is that in every bull run, there are like a handful of narratives that account for, let's say, 80 to 90% of the gains. And if you can just position yourself in, you know, a couple of coins within these like top narratives, like you're set. In the last bull run, I made a lot of money, but that wasn't through diversifying into like 20, 30 different coins. It was mostly made from holding Solana and BNB. And your goal is also to try to identify what these top narratives are. For example, Pendle is in a really, really good price right now. It is part of the real-world asset space. And you have currently just taken out this liquidity right here. And you know, if Pendle, if real-world assets continues its performance, then And chances are over the next, you know, couple few weeks, like Pendle's gonna recover a lot faster than something that doesn't have the narrative, something like IMX. It is Web3 gaming, fundamentally very sound, but it doesn't fit the narrative, at least so far throughout this entire bull run. AI is another case of this phenomenon. Sure, like AI is gonna be huge, it's a new narrative, whatever, but just the data does not lie. Like the numbers don't lie. It's not been performing as well as, you know, certain other coins. If anything, this is just kind of looking like a Big heads and shoulders pattern. Now obviously this can all change, and by that point it's never too late to jump into something that has momentum. One thing that I do need to explain to you is that I'm in crypto to make money. I'm not here to invest into the future of finance or whatever, because the reality is that all of these coins are going to lose 90% of their valuation during the bear market anyways, regardless of whether or not they are strong fundamentally. For example, it's not even the bear market yet and it's already down 76%, and TAO by you know all accounts is a decent fundamental coin. Heck, look at Solana. Even from the top, like Solana is arguably the most fundamentally sound coin. coin in the entirety of crypto besides, you know, Ethereum, for example, and it's down 50%. All of these coins are going to go to zero eventually. It makes no sense for me to hold them past their time. If I'm here to just make money, then the best thing that I've found throughout my 5 years in crypto is to follow the money. Whatever coins, whatever narratives has the momentum, that's where you should be prioritizing your attention. With that said, I want to leave you with one last bit of advice. Bitcoin will eventually go to $100K. The only question is whether or not you will still be able to survive until you see that day. Right now, the key is to play defense, not offense. This is the worst time to be revenge trading at the moment. If you have lost significant chunks of money throughout this dip, then the one thing that you should be doing, and one of the highest ROI things that you can be doing right now, is to reflect on what brought you to this point. It's really important that you come face to face with all of the mistakes that you made. I know it's ugly. I know that you probably don't wanna face it, but unless you deal with the root cause, something like this is going to happen again. Perhaps you didn't take profit when you were supposed to, and now you're stuck holding bags. Maybe you didn't set a stop loss at breakeven, even though you were up 200%. Maybe you refused to believe that this coin just isn't part of the narrative. this time around and you kept buying in as it went lower and lower. And now you're way too invested into this coin that you're down 40% and you have no money left to allocate into something else that's potentially better. All of these are errors. And the good news is that all of these errors can be fixed. But the first step to fixing any problem is that you need to first be aware of the problem. And this is the exact prompt. What brought you here? What series of actions did you take that brought you to where you are right now? And no, before you start blaming the markets, it's not about the markets, it's not about news, it's not about, you know, it's not about wars, it's not about the yen decoupling, it's not about Trump. You are here because of the decisions that you made. Similarly, I have a few bags that are down like 40, 50, 60% at the moment. Like, is that the market's fault? Hell no, it's me. I was the one who decided to put money into those coins. I was the one who decided that it was worth holding onto it, even though let's say market structure was looking pretty bad. It's all my fault. And until you fix those problems, it will happen again. Dips will always happen throughout a bull run. This time around, we haven't gotten as many as compared to past cycles. And yet maybe that is the reason why so many people have gotten complacent and they've gotten comfortable with just expecting gains to just come to them on a platter. But the reality is that throughout a bull run, these types of like catastrophic, you know, retracements tend to happen, you know, 7 to 8 times. And throughout the course of a 2-year bull run, it pretty much happens once every 3 months. And don't worry about making money right now. You will slowly make it back. The bull run's not over yet. You still have time. If you want somewhere to start, feel free to check out some of the videos on my channel. Over the last couple months, I have been taking the effort to post, to make videos that are super valuable for traders and investors. There is no BS. It's not like shallow content. I actually dive deep into things, and because of that, the videos tend to be a little bit— the videos tend to be longer. But as a result of watching those videos, I'm sure you will gain a lot. If you want somewhere to start, other videos that I've posted the last couple months. But otherwise, stay safe, and I hope you survive to see a better day. Cheers.