Bitcoin: dangerous move coming today (be careful)

What's good guys, before I get into this video, just a reminder that we have a $25,000 giveaway and you have around 48 hours left to submit an entry. Like, this is the biggest giveaway that we've ever done, so go and submit an entry before it closes. First link in the description box below. You can also see the URL just right here or something, wherever it's on screen. But otherwise, let's get into this video. So Just to kick things off, today we have FOMC, which means that we are potentially looking at a pretty aggressive move on Bitcoin today. And so obviously we're gonna want to take advantage of that. Now I'm gonna break it all down within this video, but just right before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly calculating the success rate of these trade calls that I've been making here on YouTube over the last year and a half or so. And over the course of 200+ trades, we're sitting at around a 78% win rate. So all that means for you is that if you're here, chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with That off the way, it's time to get into the meat of this video. Now, just to kick things off on the day chart, so far we're looking at a bearish bias. So technically for today, we're supposed to be looking for a short. Now, once we go into the lower timeframes, you will also see that this confirms that we should be looking for bearishness. Now, full disclosure though, this week has been a little bit rough, just on the intraday, because like if we actually take a look at the price action, we've just kind of been thrown around like both towards like just really aggressive moves to the downside and really aggressive moves to the upside all within the same day. So just to explain what I mean here, like on Monday we were like Monday literally V-shaped recovery. Like this was really hard to trade even though I got the overall like kind of idea correct. I wasn't able to get into a trade purely because like this is pretty hard. Same thing for yesterday. We had down, up, and then followed by another down. So overall we're just looking at a lot of like lack of a better word, like manipulative kind of price action. And it's only normal that sometimes when this happens we would get stopped out. And for me, for me yesterday, I also ended up getting stopped out. So Like if you guys have been struggling so far this week, like you're not alone. I have been as well. And hopefully though, today will be a different story. So let's just break down the trade setup. So, so far again, we've already been looking at inverse C gliders. And the moment you come down into the daily part, you will also— and the moment you come down into the hourly part, you will also notice that we are looking at inverse CIB here. So far, this is kind of like low lows, low highs as well. The overall kind of order flow on the 1 hourly has already shifted. Now, this is the level that we want to be paying attention to, which is this prior block right here. The fact that we've got the CIC, which is this line, is that this now becomes a potential zone of resistance for price to actually drop from. Now, not only that, but we also have another point of resistance right here on the 1-hourly chart. So we've got a couple of areas that we can deal with. Now, obviously this does not discount the fact that there is a potential that price will just drop from the, like, from this point onwards. If that happens, Also give you the gate plan for how to navigate this. But just so far, we are looking for a retracement back into either one of these resistance levels at a certain tiny level, and then we're going to be looking for a short towards the downside, most likely targeting this low over here and potentially even like further like towards the downside. This I cannot be certain of, but if we go into the daily chart, we can see that we do have a liquidity level over there. Now one of the things that's going to make today a little bit harder to navigate as compared to like a regular week Is the fact that if you recall from last week, is the fact that if you recall from like right, I mentioned the fact that we are apparently operating within this range right now. So once the range lows have been swept, there is a pretty decent likelihood that we're actually going to go target the range highs. This was also my projection at the start of this week because we had a bullish weekly bias. I was actually expecting price to go towards the upside towards this level right here. And so far, it's not to say that this cannot still be possible. This Kind of adds a kind of point of uncertainty for our short today, considering that okay range lows are in sweat in terms of an accurate perspective. So we're actually looking for price to continue going to the upside. So that's the only thing to keep in mind. So just to explain what's happening right now, we're in a situation where we can make a case that prices actually can head towards the downside, but we can also make an argument for the fact that prices actually going to head towards the upside. Now in a situation like this, the book is actually super simple, which is the fact that. Whatever we're looking at on the higher timeframe right now is purely based on our inning, and also it's the higher timeframe. But in terms of the videos that we're making right here, we are actually looking to trade on an intraday basis, which usually means that our trades take a grand total of a couple of hours to both enter as well as exit. So a lot of what happens on the higher timeframe here, yes, it's good to keep in mind, but it's chances are it's also not gonna affect us in terms of what we're doing here on the intraday. But still, it's good to keep in mind. So that we can, you know, be prepared in case if there are any failure points throughout the trade for the day. But with that step, with that being said though, into the higher timeframe, it's not like we're just gonna go long right now because like we're very, we're getting very close to a sell-side liquidity right here. And also again, the hourly has already confirmed like bearish order flow and stuff like that. So if even if we do go long here, you're just going to be running into a lot of resistance. Now I'm not saying that this is absolutely impossible. I'm just saying this is a lower probability outcome, right? Chances are it's less likely to happen. So with that said though, earlier on I mentioned that there was a specific timing that you're gonna wanna look for this trade. And essentially there are 2 timings for today. Now, why is there 2 timings? Oh, that's because today we are looking at FOMC. Now this is a news event that happens at 2:00 PM New York time. Now, if you know anything about news, it's that you understand most news tends to come in the morning of New York session. So 10:00 AM, as you can see right here, that's 8:30 AM as well. So it's not often that we get a news event happening at 2:00 PM. Now the reason why this matters is because the system that I'm using right now and the system that I've used, maintaining a decently high success rate on the last year and a half or so for Bitcoin, is that we trade during a kill zone or during a news session. So the kill zone in the New York— the New York kill zone in this case is gonna be 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York time. But if it's today, we also have news at 2:00 PM. It means that we have another kill zone to take advantage of. So we're gonna be looking for a trade either between the kind of like initial morning New York kill zone, 7 to 10, or, but also if that trade setup does not show itself during the New York morning session, we also know that, okay, the hour leading up to news and the hour after news is a very high probability zone. So basically from 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM New York, that's where we need to execute. Me personally, I'm not gonna be touching that because I'm currently in Asia and like that's gonna be happening at like what, 3:00 AM my time. So I'm gonna be asleep by then. So the overall idea is that we're looking for 2 scenarios, right? One I've already shared with you earlier. If you retrace back into this level and you start heading towards the downside, you're gonna look for this sometime during the New York morning kill zone or during news. Now the second scenario that we wanna account for is if price just continues to put in like really strong bearish momentum, in which case we're just gonna be taking advantage of that throughout the day. But there's such a common misconception in the trading space where, okay, if I miss the retracement entry, right? And if price just continues going towards the downside, if you start getting into highs while it's going to the downside, It almost feels like you're late, but that couldn't be further from the truth. If anything, like some of my most successful trades that I've ever taken, which is taken when prices clearly confirmed some direction of momentum, and I'm just hopping onto the train that's already moving and getting off at a later stop. So the way this is going to look like is, okay, price is super bearish. We have a target per begin, which is down $61,300. And so we have further targets down below at around $60,000 and even $50,000 and $38,800. Now, assuming that price continues to put in bearish momentum, we're just gonna be selling low and then buying back lower, which is kind of how shorting works. By the time you watch this video, assuming that price is already kind of heading towards the downside, then like, yeah, just take advantage of that. And especially once you get into that new kill zone, utilize the 5-minute order flow to just kind of get into new entries. Like, just to give you an example right now, this is a new bearish order block that formed on 5-minute chart. And I'm not saying this is a blanket take that this is how it's going to look like. You get a new 5-minute order block, and then when price retests into the order block, you place Like you basically just utilize the order block. And even if I just set the target here at $61,300, you'll see that the target is, you know, 1.8 risk to reward. Similarly, if I were to, you know, quote unquote, get the optimal entry, let's say I get like, like I get an entry here and I, you know, manage to place my stop loss here and I risk it all the way down here. You can see like this is inferior in terms of risk to reward, right? Even though I got the much higher probability entry or like the more perfect entry, I actually make less money on this as compared to just taking a simple naked trade. So the only thing that I would ask you to be careful when it comes to this method is the fact that once you get down into this level, right, by the time you watch this video, if we're already here, the thing you want to be careful of is if you get a candle close beneath this level right here, which is at $61,700. Now this is a candle body right here, and if you do get a candle close on the 1-hour chart below this level, this will kind of confirm another just instance of bearish order flow. Now if you get that, then 100% we're just going to be looking for a short. Or just all the way towards the downside. But if you just get a quick liquidity sweep, right, kicking at this level, and then without a candle close, price just kind of starts. But the thing that you wanna be careful of, the thing that you wanna look for, is that in the event that price accept this liquidity level and it starts showing signs that it's gonna bounce towards the upside, you will be able to read this on the 5-minute chart. Then you wanna be very careful because what is potentially gonna happen at this stage is that price is just going for the liquidity sweep followed by a move towards the outside. It's the same type of move that we've seen all throughout this week. Where, for example, on Monday, right, there was— this is the range low that I kind of talked about, and this was the liquidity sweep that I talked about. Once you swept out the liquidity, boom, you go all the way back to the upside in a V-shaped recovery. And right now we're kind of operating in a very similar situation here, where this is a 1-hourly chart. This is the range lows, this is the range high, and the measured take out the range low while it's itself heading towards the range high. The way you'll do it— how it's cutting on the order book— and as usual, like, feel free to just follow me on X where I'll be posting any of my free updates. Like if I get into a trade, I'll share my entries and my stops and everything. This is how, you know, I am publicly documenting my, you know, success rate when it comes to these calls. And like, yeah, you know, some update, you can find like signals group or whatever. Now if throughout this entire video, um, I feel like my, like my explanation is kind of all over the place, like you guys will know this doesn't usually happen. Usually, you know, pretty straightforward, it's pretty clear-cut. But do you get the feeling that I'm kind of all over the place? There are a few things that are kind of happening right now. One is that I can kind of make an argument where it is a high timeframe, this is what I'm looking for, futures towards the upside, but it's a lower timeframe, 30 points towards the downside, right? So there's a bit of a mismatch. And this is one of the toughest situations for a trader to kind of navigate because you need to kind of weigh which one's more likely. Whereas, you know, the easiest trades and the best trades that we further trade in are just like, okay, higher timeframe is pointing down, lower timeframe is pointing down, great, you can short calls. But today threw the dissonance, right? In fact, this entire week so far, Even though we are applying the X2, and even though high burst gives higher clean, the results have just not been favorable. And that's because like we're just kind of in a rage mode. And if you know anything about the system, it's that this system tends to struggle when we are in a rage, right? Primarily it's meant for this system. So it's not necessarily to say that this system sucks or whatever, it's just our conditions may not be the best for this particular system that we're using. So the way that I'm gonna be memoring this grenade Is a like you're gonna look for the exact confirmations that I've talked about all throughout this video, and again, I will be posting the entries whenever I do get into them. But I will be very cautious, right? I'm gonna be waiting for more confirmations than usual because again, like it just feels kind of I can make it on both sides to do fidget. If the range low here gets swept, we might be looking at a we might be looking at a move back towards the outside. But even if we get a move back towards the outside, it's like we're gonna be running into so much air resistance. It's not trade that everything anyways, but everything else is kind of pointing towards the downside at the moment. And after taking And like essentially after taking out this rate flow, the next kind of like key liquidity level is going to be quite a ways down the ladder. Even if we just not look at this from the daily perspective and just kind of zoom lower, like the next major liquidity point is going to be at $16,000. Now I'm not expecting price to drop all the way to $16,000 today. I don't know, right? FOMC, anything could happen. But this also kind of goes into conflict with what we kind of observed on the daily chart where, okay, price is currently in a range right now. We've set other range lows. Very likely that we're going to go to the range highs. The only possible scenario that I can see right now where like any of my concerns just gets like invalidated is the fact that if you draw a fib from the low of the range to current range high that we formed, so basically up here, the— once this liquidity gets taken out at $61,000, we'll actually tap into the discount zone of the range, which if you know anything about premium discount, you want to look to buy during a discount and you want to sell during a premium. So this is basically like a Fibonacci retracement level or whatever. And this would actually make sense. Before today, I think realistically we may see $60,000. It also adds up with this both shorter clock could hit. So essentially we're taking trade today targeting either this low or just around $60,000 and then we head towards the upside, right? So this is gonna be exactly what I'm looking for. But again, I'll share any confirmations when I do get them. And just one final note, giveaway closes in about 48 hours. So make sure you sign up before even it ends. And also just quick apologies if I appear like that thing. I managed to say order interface today. Today's sake is But for some reason, my thoughts just aren't flowing as cleanly today, and like, I just haven't been as on point. But if you're here at this point so far, like, I appreciate you sticking around even through all of this kind of like rambling. Claris is gonna have a lot of work later to do. But otherwise, yeah, I'll see you guys later on X and also in tomorrow's video. Stay cute.