Bitcoin hits 100k, Altseason Will Start At This Time

Bitcoin finally managed to hit $100K. This is a big day, and congratulations to everyone who watched my previous video on Bitcoin. We did in fact call the bottom on this value area that formed on the daily chart. Goes to show that order flow does indeed work once more. Right now, if you got in, you would be about 15% up. But if you didn't, don't worry, because I'm going to give you the next move on not only Bitcoin but primarily on the altcoin markets, because that is where the money is going to be made. It's not going to be made on the largest cap crypto in all of crypto. It's going to be made on the sub-$500 million, sub- $200 million, perhaps even $1 billion market cap coins that have the potential to go by 10x, 20x. So if you want to stick around to find out what's the next move on Bitcoin and when altcoin season is about to begin, then stick around. Right before I get into this though, for those of you who have been struggling to get the results that you know is possible from this bull run, or you simply just feel overwhelmed by all of the information out there and you are struggling to keep up with the developing narratives and trends and coins and you're missing out on all of the major moves, the Black Friday discount on the Private Alpha Group will end in a couple of days. This is your chance to get in at a lower price than usual. As we approach the final stage of the bull run, time is of the essence. It's the only reason why I'm offering this. Of course, if this isn't relevant for you, don't worry about it. If it is, check out the link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the video. The first thing that we have to talk about on Bitcoin is where is a potential top. Now I've marked out 4 levels here, and the way that I mark these out is by taking a fib from the most recent move, extending it outwards. That's a -0.5 standard deviation expansion. There's a -1 from this range. Now this is the -1.618, which is I expect to be the top for this move, like local top essentially, before you go through some kind of retracement, just like what we did here. And the reason why this works, by the way, is that the -0.5 and the -1 are actually not Fibonacci numbers. They're not Fibonacci extensions. They are standard deviation expansions. And for those of you who know anything about standard deviation, it's based in math. And the beautiful thing about math is that the algorithms that these big funds, hedge funds especially, and these high-frequency trading funds are using They're programmed based on math. There's a reason why you have so many movements in the market that coincides with standard deviation expansions. For example, price finds a high very close to the -0.5 expansion. Essentially, the reason why I was able to call the top here and publicly said that Bitcoin would find some kind of local high and, you know, just go through a bit of a retracement before continuing to move above $100K is also because of standard deviation numbers, right? These numbers work like magic. Now, Not saying that you're just going to use these numbers without any sort of confluence. No, that's not what I'm saying. But it is a good area to start from, especially when price is in price discovery and you have no price action from before to base your analysis on. And so immediately this gives us 3 levels to look at, which is $105,000, $109,000, and $114,000. Now where does this $112,000 number come from then? Well, going back to the retracement that we had for the last 6 months Like from March to September, if we draw it from this high to this low here, this is also a negative 1.618 extension. So all of these numbers line up, and most likely the move is going to end right at about here. But the focus is not on when the Bitcoin move is going to end, because we're not really trying to catch movements on Bitcoin. We're trying to use Bitcoin to time our entries on altcoins. And when it comes to that, what we want to see is not actually A retracement because that's going to be bad for altcoins. For those of you who have been following the altcoin markets closely over the last couple of weeks, you know that the moment Bitcoin started dumping from here, like even though Bitcoin only dumped by 10%, the majority of altcoins actually lost more like 20%. And of course, once Bitcoin stopped doing nothing is when you've seen the likes of XRP going absolutely parabolic. You see Solana, everything like just going up. Gaming even, like which is pretty much a dino coin at this point in this cycle just because of how underperforming it has been. But The moment you saw Bitcoin doing nothing and just ranging, boom, that's when the altcoin movements begin. So what we want to look for and what we are using these levels for is not to catch the top on Bitcoin to short it or whatever. It's to time our altcoin entries and find areas where Bitcoin can potentially go into some kind of consolidation. If you realize from what happened before here, it's that once you hit some kind of a key level or psychological level, in this case, you go through a consolidation. And this is just how the markets work. The markets always move from phases of high volatility like this to low volatility once you've hit some kind of key level. Similarly, once we hit the— well, not hit, but like, now once we formed the previous all-time high all the way back in March, guess what happened, right? That's a very high volatility move and a boom, right? You go through a 6-month retracement. High volatility move, go through a shorter consolidation. High volatility move into a consolidation. This is how the markets like to move. And the way that you're able to just slightly predict when these consolidations can happen is through the use of key levels. And in this case, we have 4. Now, this is again not the signal to where the moment price hits this area or whatever, you just go short. That is not it because that is not enough confirmation, or rather, that's not enough confluence that we have to take a trade, especially shorting Bitcoin that's pumping straight up in all-time high territory. So don't take it as that. We're just making some predictions on when it might start to range. And so now that you have an idea of that, then there is just one last thing that we want to talk about with Bitcoin, which is if you want to get into Bitcoin and you don't already own Bitcoin, where is a good level to get in? There are going to be 2 answers to this question for 2 different types of people, which is, are you looking to buy and hold for a really long time, or are you more looking to get into a swing trade? So let's start by answering the first question, which is if you want to buy and hold for the long term, for many, many years to come, the level you're going to look at is going to be much further down from where we are. The best time to buy Bitcoin is actually in a bear market. Wow, surprise! Whoa, so smart! But it is true. If that is your goal and you don't really care about the short-term gains and you're just trying to secure a legacy by holding some Bitcoin, maybe pass it on to the second generation of your family, then that area is going to come right at about like $50K or like $40K. And that's not going to happen, I believe, for the next like 6 to 12 months as we head into the final phase of the bull run, which is where we're going to get the parabolic gains. So the better question to ask is that if you are getting into Bitcoin right now, you should treat it very much like a swing trade because again, we are reaching the later stages of the bull run at an area like this. You know, it's only going to be like 6 to 12 months before Bitcoin goes through like 80% retracement when we go into a bear market. So it doesn't make quite that much sense to buy Bitcoin at anywhere around these levels. So let's answer the second question, which I believe is probably more relevant to more of you, which is now that the volume area here has held, which is again just another proof that order flow does work, and whatever I talk about when it comes to trading alongside the smart money and the institutional money, like all of this just works. And if you want to learn more about this, feel free to watch my previous videos or even join the AOC Alpha Group, because this is where you're going to get access to my step-by-step trading system. But otherwise, now that this volume area has filled, it's now time to start looking into another volume area, because you have indeed formed another volume area on the daily chart. So for now, we're going to remove this just to reduce the amount of clutter that's on our chart. I know it doesn't seem like a lot on the daily chart, but the moment you zoom into the 4-hourly time frame, you can see just how developed this volume area looks. Again, You go from high volatility to low volatility. Reason why you do this, by the way, just an explanation on why this happens, is because the market is always trying to find a state of fair value. And fair value can be simply defined as an area where market participants, both buyers and sellers, agree that it's an area where they would be willing to transact. And that's why you see ranges happen. When you are in a range, it's essentially a lot of trading volume being concentrated in a tiny area where there are a lot of sells and there are a lot of buys. But overall, what this means is that market participants believe that this is an area of fair value, which is also why when you retrace— when you break out of a value area and you retrace back into a value area, this serves literally as a guide. This value area is concrete visual proof that people in the past have transacted hundreds of millions of dollars within this small area here, which also means 2 things. One, this is a reference point, right? You already know people are willing to transact at this level. And number 2, which is the more relevant reason to why this applies to smart money trading, is that the moment you break out of a value area really aggressively, just like what you're doing here right now, there are going to be a lot of market participants that have not yet filled all of their orders. And the fact that the price has pumped so aggressively out of the area means that all of their orders are still open. The reason why when you get value area retracements, the movement is always sharp, it's always quick price dips into the value area, especially if you also have a demand zone there. Price dips in and gets out really quick, right? The open orders are filled. Boom. And you might be wondering like, hey, these open orders cannot be, you know, that strong to where it pushes the market outwards. Well, guess what? When you're dealing with tens or hundreds of billions of dollars like these hedge funds are, you need to really spread out your orders over many, many orders and over a long period of time so as not to affect the price movement by too much. Otherwise, you're going to get screwed over by slippage, which is getting to a little bit More psychology at this point is that once price pumps straight up, there are a lot of retail traders. There are a lot of dumb money traders that chase the green candles, and there's nothing wrong with that as long as you know what you're doing. But the better move always, almost always, especially if you're a beginner, is to wait for some kind of retracement. Because if you chase the green candles, you're going to end up getting trapped when the smart money reverses the price into an area where they consider a value area. So. As an example, you go long here, like, because you believe, oh, you know, prices just broke out or whatever. Yeah, sure, you might have had a little bit of gains, but chances are price would come back to your entry and perhaps even below your entry. And if you're using really high leverage, you probably would get liquidated at this point here, right? Essentially, you are in the negative, and so you become trapped. And this is what the smart money wants. Why? Because when you make money in trading, not just crypto, like trading in general or just in the financial markets, You're not making money out of thin air. You're not the Federal Reserve. You are not generating any sort of value by, you know, if you work a job, you generate value and you get paid equivalent to the amount of value that you generate. Like, there is no societal value when it comes to trading. It's just, you know, people going against each other. And this is really important to understand because when you make money, you're actually taking money away from someone else who lost a trade. And in 90% of cases, whenever you do win, the ones paying you out of their pocket are the smart money. You know, they're the exchanges, they're the hedge funds, they're the market makers, you name it. And so it's in their best interest to trap as many people as possible, buying up all of the supply at really low prices before pushing price up. So this is just a little 5-minute rant about the mechanisms of how the markets work. And so now that we have established that, it's important to know that right now we are going through a repeat of what happened here. Price aggressively moves out of the value area, returns back to the value area, and pumps. So when it comes to the value area, there are only 2 possibilities at Any given time, right? Or at least in this case, there are only 2 real possibilities. One is that you break out of the value area, you return back to the top of the value area, which in this case is right at about $99,000, and you hold that as support, and then you continue to move just like this. Second possibility is that this breakout ends up being a failed breakout where you break back inside the value area, right? So if you start getting like daily candle closes below $99,000, just be prepared for price to retrace to $99,000 Right, retesting the value area high as resistance before oscillating to the low of the value area. Now, in 100% of cases, if you get a situation like this and this becomes resistance, you will in 100% of cases— okay, maybe more like 99%, but it happens at a really high clip— you do return back to the midpoint. At least some of the cases, you do return back to the value area low. So just to give you an example, previously this was the value area. You fail a breakout on the value area low, and so you return to the value area high, return back to the midpoint to find support, and then boom, this is the breakout. Now, one thing to note is that we don't know if this is the breakout where, you know, it's going to find support and it's going to continue. Only time will tell. And this is why it's important to be prepared for multiple scenarios. Ultimately, we want to be thinking in bets. We understand that the only thing certain about the financial markets is that nothing is ever certain. So we prepare accordingly so that whatever happens, we're able to read and react. If you can adopt this mindset when it comes to trading, you are going to be very successful. That's what we're going to be looking for. And of course, I will continue to make updates on Bitcoin. So if you enjoy this analysis of, you know, the crypto markets based on a smart money perspective, make sure you subscribe because I'll be posting very often. So that's the situation on Bitcoin. Now it's time to move on to everyone's favorite topic, which is altcoins, right? Taking a look at even the Altcoin Season Index, we can see that we are actually in an altcoin season already. But you will soon come to understand that this is a little bit misleading. So At the moment, we are the highest point we have ever been since the start of 2024. So throwback to the beginning of this year, it was a proper alt season where we got 20 to 50x movements across almost every coin. I know this is at the point now where it feels a little bit dangerous buying in because in the past, whenever we reach altcoin season, we start reverting back to the mean or perhaps even the other side of the equation, which is Bitcoin season. But what's important to understand also is that altcoin seasons generally last for a bit of time, right? Usually at least a month. Now what's important to understand about this alt Coin season and why it's different from the past. It's because, first of all, Bitcoin's at 100K. Euphoria is really high and it's only just getting started. Trump only got elected a month ago. This is really good for monetary policy, hence crypto. We have not seen any sort of a you know parabolic run-up for the majority of altcoins, and this is also a really good sign because the pumps have not really began yet. If anything, we're still waiting for that kind of pump on the majority of altcoins. The only coins that we've seen go absolutely parabolic so far with this Bitcoin 100K move is XRP. It went up. Basically straight up and went 5x and is now currently the number 3 largest market cap crypto just behind Ethereum. Like heck, we haven't even seen a big Ethereum run-up yet, and this is not like the parabolic stage yet. And so this is good news for all of us that perhaps are not yet ready to face a bear market and to sell the top, because clearly it doesn't really feel like a top, at least not yet. And I only say this from my experience having been through 2 past bull runs, so do take it with a grain of salt. But I am trying to add as much confluence as I can to this theory. But one more thing you need to understand about altcoin seasons, and especially that last parabolic move upwards. Things in crypto move so exponentially that you cannot measure it linearly using time. What do I mean by that? Essentially, what you will likely see throughout this month is what we like to call exponential gains. Essentially, pumps in crypto are not made equal. There are certain moments— we're just looking at ETH here— you can go 43% in the course of 7 days. There are also moments where you go 30% in double the time. And one thing you need to understand about crypto bull runs is that The later the stage that you get in the parabola, the more straight up it goes and the less time it requires to outweigh all of the gains that you've— that has come before it. What you're about to see is just a really short concentrated period in the next 30 days-ish where things are going to go absolutely crazy. And the starting point for when that will happen is on Bitcoin when it starts to range. You have already seen a little microcosm of this happening because the moment Bitcoin starts dumping, well, XRP also goes into a consolidation. The moment Bitcoin starts ranging, boom, XRP goes from $1.4 and basically doubles in market cap. And this, by the way, is about $500 billion worth of market cap in terms of the increase. And that's wild to think about because eventually that $500 billion is going to take some profit and it's going to cycle into the rest of the crypto markets. So just be prepared of that. And now we get into the money flow of crypto. Now I know a lot of you are familiar with the typical money flow, which is you go from Bitcoin to Ethereum to the large caps to the mid caps and to the low caps. And one thing you need to understand as well is that every cycle is different from previous cycles. In this cycle, the money flow has been looking more like Bitcoin, Ethereum— not even Ethereum, like mainly Solana— and then you move on to either large caps or Dogecoin, right? That's the interesting part, because this narrative, or rather this cycle, has been defined so much by the meme coin narrative that meme coins are really what you want to be using as the gauge. And by the way, the majority of the gains that has been made throughout this bull run are also coming from meme coins. So This is important to note. So essentially, the money flow is looking more like you go from Bitcoin to Solana/Ethereum. In this upcoming month, I do believe it's going to be both because Ethereum is showing a signal that has not yet been seen in the last 3 years. If you haven't already watched that video, I'm going to link it at the end of this video. Make sure you watch it because you do not want to be missing out on this upcoming Ethereum pump. Money then flows into Dogecoin because this is the largest cap meme coin. And then lastly, you go on to the large cap memes slash just general large caps. In this case, this would be stuff like WIF. It would be stuff like Popcat because those are the billion-dollar market cap coins, as well as Pepe and Bonk and you name it, right? The large-cap memes. And the price is going to go into true, what I like to call true alt season, where you have just absolute mania. And you know, the small caps, the mid caps, everything just goes crazy. AI and gaming are probably going to have a run as well. But this is the general money flow and where you want to be focusing your money and attention to over the upcoming month. So right now we are still at this stage. Right? Not even, not even this stage yet. Like, we're transitioning into this stage. So pick up some ETH. It's a really good time to get it. Now, if you think that ETH is not going to give you the amount of returns that you are hoping from the crypto markets, I have already also made a video on an Ethereum beta play that I think is going to absolutely blow up following the Ethereum narrative. We'll also link it at the end of this video. Feel free to check it out. Essentially, you can start using Dogecoin as the signal for when meme coin season is about to happen. Get into the large-cap memes, make sure you're positioned already, and then boom, right? In the same time that you're doing this, make sure you hold a few, you know, smaller-cap meme coins. Some good ones that have not yet been listed on exchanges and are actually really high conviction are the AI meme coins, right? AI16Z, you have Zerebro, as well as Fartcoin. I know it sounds stupid, but the more stupid generally is better for meme coins. You know, for example, Gigachad. This has not yet been listed on, you know, the major exchanges. It's about $500 million market cap. But just go into the smaller cap market caps, hold some of that because they have a real potential to go absolutely parabolic. And just one final little quote to end this video on is that in the last cycle, Shiba went from $700 million worth of market cap to $22 billion in a span of 4 days. This is the type of pumps that are about to come. Time does not matter as long as you're positioned in the right coins. Just be patient and you're going to magically see your account go up by 2 to 3x overnight. Basically, there is not much to think about other than Right now at this stage, just buy, hold, and you're gonna make money, right? It's as simple as that. In a bull run, everyone's a genius. Sure, all of these smart money tactics and technical analysis will come in handy for catching bottoms and just catching the picture-perfect entry. But if you're a beginner, you don't really know much about technical analysis, and it truly comes down to your psychology more than anything. Just be comfortable with buying high and selling higher because that is the state of the market. And as long as you can do that, you're going to win. And of course, if you feel like you're missing out on all of the large moves and you just need some help or just a source of information that you can take advantage of, To get into trends early, feel free to check out the AOC Alpha Group. Again, the discount ends in about two days. I am only promoting this for those that find this relevant. If you don't, that's perfectly fine. In the meantime, check out these two videos that I did on Ethereum and the Ethereum beta play, so that at least you don't miss out on this upcoming narrative that's about to pop. See you guys in the next video. Bye bye.