In this market‑update video, The Art of Crypto breaks down the near‑term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum. He first explains that Bitcoin’s daily chart has shown a “change of character” indicating bearishness and outlines three possible scenarios: a short‑term trading range, a retracement into a dump, or a liquidity sweep followed by a dump. He ties the timing to the upcoming Bitcoin ETF launch on Jan 10, noting that low‑volume holiday weeks may suppress moves until then, and advises traders to wait until after the first week of January for clearer signals. He cites current price targets for Bitcoin (potential lows around $25‑$30k, a ceiling near $48k) and recommends shorting the current swing. Turning to Ethereum, he notes its severe under‑performance versus Bitcoin, Solana, and Avalanche, highlighting lower fee and DEX volume despite a larger market cap. He examines the ETH/BTC relative chart, showing ETH at range lows with room to out‑perform Bitcoin if it breaks above key highs. On the ETH/USDT chart, he identifies a breakout above the previous range high, establishing a bullish “buy zone” with a primary target of $3,500 and secondary entry points around $1,800‑$1,932. He stresses that momentum trading and psychology—treating trends as the only guide—are crucial, and warns that a bearish Bitcoin move would likely drag ETH down. Finally, he points to small‑cap opportunities in the Solana and Avalanche ecosystems (e.g., Bonk, Shadow), promotes his free “Wins in Cash” newsletter that offers daily trading tips, and invites viewers to comment and like the video.
Chapters
In this video, we're going to talk about what happens to Bitcoin next, and then we're going to talk about whether or not Ethereum is going to start pumping, because clearly Ethereum is underperforming compared to the rest of the market, especially compared to the other large caps like Solana and AVAX so far. So we're going to discuss the possibility of that and when it will be likely to happen. And if you want to be prepared for whatever happens on Bitcoin in the upcoming future, then definitely stick around. And without any further ado, let's dive right into it. A couple of weeks ago, I told you guys that we have now a confirmed change of character on the daily chart, which This is sign number 1 that bearishness is beginning. And then I gave you guys 2 possibilities that will happen. In fact, 3 is what I mentioned. First of all, the markets always move from periods of high volatility to periods of low volatility. So I was saying that I wouldn't be surprised if you start creating a trading range up here. You will range for a couple of weeks before the eventual down move. Now, this couple of weeks could last all the way until January 10th, in my opinion, because that is when the ETF is scheduled to be released. And if you guys have been in crypto for any amount of time, you guys know that when it comes to news events, that you wanna buy the rumors and sell the news. That is when the news drops. And I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens in the next 2 weeks because fun fact, it is almost Christmas. Most of the market makers are out of the office and enjoying life so far. And if you were to just form a range in the last week of the year and also the first week of the year where everyone is starting to come back to work and then the ETF drops on the 10th and then just boom, Big dump. That is one of the scenarios that I'm looking at so far. But before we move on with that scenario, let me finish the other 2 scenarios that we've been talking about. And 2 weeks ago, I mentioned that there were only 3 ways that this could play out. First of all is you start ranging. Second is a retracement into a dump. And the third one is a liquidity sweep before a dump. And at the moment, we have just gotten the liquidity sweep, which is— you can see on the 4-hourly chart, this is going to be much clearer where the liquidity level at around this area has been swept. Multiple times, in fact. And I wouldn't be surprised right now. So the range highs and you start dumping. In fact, price already seems like it might be dumping. So take a short here and just ride it all the way down to range lows. It is already like a two, like a three thousand point swing, and you can make a ton of money off of that. So at the moment, Bitcoin, there are no significant updates other than the fact that you know it's just patience. We're doing our analysis on the daily chart. We are catching a move close to thirty five k, thirty k, potentially even twenty five k, and these kinds of moves take time to play out. One tip that I do want to give you guys is that. We are now closing in on the end of the year and also the start of the year. For those of you who are not as experienced as traders, you want to avoid this time of the year because there are a lot of shenanigans that does happen at this time of the year. And even if it's— this can come in the form of just really scammy price action or simply no price action just because of how little volume is in the markets. I would highly recommend that you start trading only after the first week of January, and you will have much more of a clearer picture when it comes to price action. That pretty much does it for Bitcoin. I still stand my case as Bitcoin being bearish. The most I think that Bitcoin can go to is $48K. I don't see it going much, much higher than that. Even if it does, it's probably just one last sweep. If we look at the daily chart, even if you were to say that moves happen in 3 phases, we already have— that's your first pump, it's your second pump. Even let's say we consider this as the third. Right now you're on the fourth, and the fifth one would definitely Paired with all of the other just macroeconomic factors, the news events that's coming out, the change in market structure that we have so far, this next move up probably is going to be the last. Either that or do a dump down to range lows and you continue ranging because, well, the first 2 weeks we expect the range just come back up and then down and possibly lower. That is what I'm currently expecting so far. Of course, things could change, and if it does, then I will be the first one to make a video to let you guys know. Now let's move on to Ethereum and Ethereum has been definitely under the radar, and I haven't done many analyses on Ethereum simply because of how boring it has been. While Bitcoin went from about $16K all the way up to $45K, Ethereum has only managed to do a whopping 2x basically, which is severely underperforming Bitcoin. And especially when you consider it to other charts such as Solana, where it's now close to $100 all the way down from about $8, well, that is a pretty stark difference. In fact, some other things that are not looking good for Ethereum is the fact that right now chains like AVAX and Solana are making more money in terms of fees compared to Ethereum at the moment, even though Ethereum's market cap is way bigger. If we look at even just the DEX volume, you can see that Solana has overtaken Ethereum, and it's pretty insane because Solana is nowhere close to Ethereum in terms of market cap. Now, even though that is the case, there are a few reasons why this is the case. Firstly, it has to do with all of the meme coins on Avalanche and Solana that have been popping off so far. Bonk is one of them, but Now you can name so many other coins that's just been going on an alt mania. It's not surprising that the DEX volume and also just the volume on the chain itself is going to be much higher than Ethereum, which has zero hype going for it at the moment. But the fact that Ethereum is maintaining its level of volume even though there is zero hype going on right now is actually a really good sign because now there is room for money from Solana to flow back into Ethereum. And in fact, before I even talk about the Ethereum chart itself, I want to bring you guys to a very interesting chart, which is the ETH Bitcoin chart. If we were to do an analysis of the ETH Bitcoin chart right now, you can see that right now you are sort of at a range low with potential for price to, you know, roughly let's say that's the range high where you've deviated above once and twice. You can also say that the range low is over here where Solana is now deviating beneath the range low, and Solana has been trading within this range for the better part of the last three years. So this is a very well respected range. This also means that compared to Bitcoin at the moment, Ethereum has so much room to move. Like Ethereum has a good. Few months of just outperformance compared to Bitcoin ahead of it. And this is only assuming that we go back to the range highs, which if Ethereum does any sort of expansion towards the upside, we could be looking at a target of around here for about 1 year of Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin. Is this going to eventually lead to the ETH flipping? Maybe, maybe not. I don't really think so, but hey, you never know what could happen in crypto, right? So the fact that right now we are in range lows for Ethereum The only thing we want to see to confirm a potential uptrend for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin is we want to look for the same thing that happened on Bitcoin, which is a confirmed change of character. At the moment, you want to see price do something like this, right? Just going above these previous highs over here and then waiting for a retrace. Again, every time you get a change of character, there are only 2 ways that this can play out. One is a retrace into a pump. Second is a liquidity sweep into a pump. Either way, You want to wait for a confirmed change of character. And if you get that, right, that breaks this Ethereum downtrend that's been occurring for, well, pretty much the past, let's see, since November of '23. But technically, you can also say that this downtrend has been going on since September of '22, which means since Bitcoin started pumping all the way back from 1 year ago, Ethereum has been underperforming compared to Bitcoin this entire year. Which also gives Ethereum a very positive outlook that if the trend were to change, Ethereum is going to melt some faces. So now let's actually go to the Ethereum/USDT chart to see how we can apply this into the USDT chart. First things first, I love the fact that you have broken above this level here. This used to be our previous range high where price was trading at that range high to this range low. You can see that the Ethereum chart compared to Ethereum/BTC does look quite similar. where you have a range low and you have a range high. At the moment, you've broken above the range high and you're finding support at the range high, and you are even consolidating above the range high. This is a really good sign. It's— it means that potentially ETH has room to grow. And if ETH does pump from here on out, I think that the first target for ETH is definitely going to be $3,500, simply because there is zero resistance that gets in the way of Ethereum going all the way up to $3,500. That is going to be a surefire bet. Of course, the scenario that you want to see for this Is to be honest, right now Ethereum is already in some kind of a buy zone. Just wait for a retrace into that block right there, retrace, and then you're off. One thing that I do want to caution you guys is that now that we have established the target at 3,500, the moment Ethereum starts being bullish, you don't want to just fade the trend, at least until it gets to 3,500. Every time you get a retracement on Ethereum, you want to assume that it's just a retracement for you to buy the dip. Just like over here, you get a dump, but that's just retracement to make new highs, retracement. probably make new highs. So Ethereum right now is already in a buy zone even though it is already at range highs. Similarly, if you were to go all the way back and say, okay, Ethereum broke its previous all-time high over here, and then you think that Ethereum is too expensive and you stop buying, well, you would have missed out on Ethereum going from $1,400 to damn near $5,000. That is not something you want to miss out on. And momentum trading is one of the most important skills that you can have in a bull market, and it all has to do with your psychology. There is no such thing as expensive or cheap in the market. There is only uptrend or downtrend, in which case, if it's in an uptrend, then you keep trading that uptrend until it changes. So far so good. There is not really much changes in terms of that uptrend. It is not threatened at all. The only thing that could set this plan into jeopardy is the fact that Bitcoin right now does— like, we are bearish in terms of Bitcoin, and if Bitcoin is bearish, 100% expect Ethereum to be bearish also. And potential retracement areas is going to be If we draw a fib from this low to this high right here, we can see that a potential retracement area is going to be at the true yearly open. So around $1,800 would be the ideal level to buy Ethereum right here. But otherwise, the first other level that you can start considering buying Ethereum is right here at $1,932. And so that is where I would be setting my eyes on over the next few weeks, perhaps even the next couple of weeks. But as long as Bitcoin dumps, this bullish plan for Ethereum, just buying here, would be in jeopardy. And if that is the case, then these would be the two levels that I would 100% look to buy at. God forbid it's going to come back to $1,500. I don't think so. But even if it were to just come back down here, it would just be sort of a liquidity sweep in an uptrend, and then boom, $3,500. This gives you around a 2x gain. Now, of course, most of the money is not going to be made in the large-cap coins itself. It's going to be made in the small caps. You look at what coins like Bonk has been doing, where it basically 5x within a month. And then you can also look at other coins like Shadow, which basically 3x in a matter of a couple of days. The money is going to be made in the small caps. And soon I'm going to be making a video about all the small cap Solana ecosystem coins that I'll be looking at to take advantage of heading into the next bull market, the ones that I think are good. I'm also going to be doing some on the AVAX ecosystem, or just whatever ecosystem that I think is going to be good, including Ethereum. If you guys would like to see that, please drop a comment down below. Drop a like on this video because it truly helps me know that you guys find these videos helpful. But otherwise, guys, if you enjoyed the tips that were shared in this video, there are tons more where that came from. I'm currently writing a newsletter where I send you a trading tip every weekday that you can apply to your trading right away to start making more money. It's called the Wins in Cash newsletter. The best part is it's completely free, and some people have even used the advice on the emails themselves to get funded for up to $100K and $200K. Again, it's absolutely free. And it's just a ton of value. Highly recommend you guys click the link in the description box below and sign up to that email newsletter. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next market update. Bye-bye.
