In this solo market‑analysis video, The Art of Crypto walks through Bitcoin’s recent price action using value‑area concepts on the 4‑hour chart, outlining two possible scenarios: a failed breakout that keeps price within the value area, or a successful breakout above the value‑area high that could flip that level into support and target $105,000. He details a concrete trade setup with entry, stop‑loss, and risk‑reward calculations, emphasizing the heightened volatility expected around the U.S. CPI release on Wednesday. The presenter then shifts to Bitcoin dominance, noting a break below a long‑term trend line and a fair‑value gap that suggests dominance could fall from ~57 % to ~53.5 %, which would likely fuel 10‑20× altcoin rallies. He explains the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, showing recent DXY failures as a precursor to a multi‑month downtrend that would boost Bitcoin and altcoins. Finally, he offers a promotional CTA for his paid group, encouraging viewers to subscribe, like, and seek personalized trading help. The overall narrative ties technical price‑action, macro‑economic timing, and market‑structure signals into actionable trading ideas for the next 2–3 months.
Chapters
So last week Bitcoin had a failed breakout above the value area, broke back into the value area and touched the value area low. And in the last video I mentioned that there were only 2 scenarios that could possibly happen. The first one is that you get rejected at the value area high and you accept back into the value area. Ideally we don't really want that if we are continuing to be bullish on Bitcoin. And the second scenario would be that you break out above it and you want to see consolidation above the value area. Now currently it's seeming like Bitcoin is going to hold the value area high. And so if this continues, especially if Bitcoin breaks this high here on the 4-hourly chart. This is going to signify a potential resistance flip into support where you can target it straight to $105,000. So that's going to be one of the trades that you can potentially take. Now of course, the riskier play right now would be to just enter here with a stop loss underneath here. Now why there particularly? Because if you are using the value area as the criteria for entering your trade, it also means that you want to see the value area high being flipped into support. In the event that price does break lower and takes out this low, then your thesis that this value area high, previous value area high, is going to act as support has been invalidated. And in this case, like, price is really going to start accepting back into the value area. And so instead, what you want to do is, I mean, get your trade stopped out and start flipping short by turning this into potential resistance and then back into the middle of the value area or even the low. So it's going to be the play for Bitcoin for now. And what's interesting to note is that this week we're going to be having the CPI in the US market. And other than that, There's not really too much else. So I think Wednesday is going to be the day to look out for, for like just true direction to show itself. Monday and Tuesday are probably going to be less like lower probability days, and Wednesday is going to be where you're really going to start seeing the volatility come back on Bitcoin. So for now, the play is still going to be, you know, potentially— this, by the way, is risky because we do not have a confirmed just break of structure. Like, yeah, currently we're getting some kind of consolidation above the value area, but until this high gets broken, Like, there's no guarantee that this is going to be the area. But again, if you're more of an aggressive trader, obviously this is going to give you a way better risk to reward. Even if you just target $105,000, that's a 3 to 1. And of course, if you start zooming down into the lower time frames, you can get a much more refined entry. Although this entry is really not too bad, then this is going to be a 3 to 1 versus a potential, you know, not even 1 to 1, especially if you set your stop loss all the way here. But either way, Best case scenario, you're probably going to get a 1.5 to 1 risk reward ratio, which is a lot worse compared to 3 to 1. It's as they say, if you want more reward, you got to take on a little bit more risk. There are of course some times where that isn't the case, but in this case it really is. So entry here, stop loss here, take profit at 104/105. And the second one is to wait for a break above this level, maybe zoom into the lower time frame and then ride the wave all the way here. Now if this happens before CPI, there's also real likelihood that CPI on Wednesday is just going to sweep the highs, especially if it happens like this. Wednesday is probably going to be the high of the week, and then boom, you're probably going to, you know, head down, potentially, you know, start rejecting back into the valley area. Just another scenario to keep in mind. I'm not trying to predict the future here, but I am painting scenarios to where if scenario A happens, then I'm going to do this. If scenario B happens, then I'm going to react this way. It's a lot of if-then statements, and if you can just adopt this mindset when it comes to trading, you're going to do really, really well. So that's the update on Bitcoin. Now let's take a look a bit at Bitcoin dominance because this thing is the key to the altcoin markets, and we all know that we are focused on the altcoin markets at the moment. It has broken below this trend line. It has hit the exact level that I was looking for it to hit. This, by the way, I drew like, like I think 3, 4 months ago, and I even posted it publicly on Twitter, but mainly in the Alpha Group. And currently what I'm really looking for in terms of Bitcoin dominance, like this is going to take a lot longer than a lot of people are willing to wait. Essentially right now on the weekly chart, you have just formed an imbalance, right? The fact that price moved this quickly, you form an imbalance. This is a fair value gap, and it also lines up with a high volume node, which also means that when price does eventually return back to this area, it's likely to be the top for Bitcoin dominance. And boom, you're going to dump by like from 57%, and very likely you're going to go down to like 53.5%. Now, for those of you who don't know how Bitcoin dominance works, from the end of last year to the start of this year, we had Bitcoin dominance drop from about 54% to 50 point like 51%, right? So that's about A 3% drop, and we saw a bunch of altcoins just go up by like 10 to 20x. In this case, we're expecting Bitcoin dominance to quite literally go from 57%, possibly down to 53.7%. So expect quite a few coins to also go 10x, 20x. I know that the valuations of a lot of coins are pretty high right now compared to, you know, almost a year ago at this point. Money is going to flow into crypto, and this is where you truly want to be entering your altcoin positions. This will be the ideal level. Is it going to take a couple weeks, maybe 3 weeks to hit? And that's where being patient comes into play, especially now that I've painted the picture on Bitcoin. Like right now, Bitcoin at all-time highs, it's just forming a new value area. We're not truly going to know if this is, you know, the new value area, price breaks out of it and this becomes future support. We won't know this until at least a couple days later, which is why, you know, this is considered the risky entry. This would be the safe entry because then you have established a new value area. You broke out of it, found support, and then boom, right? So going back to Bitcoin dominance, that is going to be the ideal play when it comes to entering your positions on altcoins, especially when you also pair it with the fair value gap. Another interesting chart that we can look for when it comes to crypto is the DXY. This is the US dollar index, and for those of you who don't know what correlation this has with Bitcoin, let's just say that whenever the US dollar index goes down, that is an instant Just signal for Bitcoin to start going up. And we know what happens when Bitcoin starts going up. Altcoins also start going up. So let's take a look at the cursor on my right and as well as on my left. This is the all-time high for DXY. You can see that this also correlates very closely to the all-time low on Bitcoin. And the moment this starts dumping, Bitcoin finds its bottom and this kickstarts the 2024 bull run. You can see that DXY has been on a downtrend since then, and at best some kind of consolidation. And even if you go back to the past, if you look at the cursor, the bottom of the bear market correlates exactly with the top of the DXY. So this is a really good signal. All this means is that since Bitcoin is correlated to the US dollar, Bitcoin/USD, the US dollar goes down, Bitcoin goes up. It's actually pretty simple. And In this case, the reason why I bring your attention to the DXY is because if you take a look at the value area from the weekly chart, we have just swept the value area high as well as previous liquidity. The reason why I draw your attention to the DXY is because firstly, marking out the value area high and the value area low, remember what we always talk about when it comes to value areas. You either only have a failed breakout or you have a successful breakout and you start consolidating above the value area and then you flip it into previous support. The other scenario would be a failed breakout, for example, like this. You try, like sellers try to push price below the value area low. Ultimately, it fails and it accepts back into the value area, and you oscillate to the opposite side. Similar for this, that's also a failed breakout. That is also a failed breakout. This is also a failed breakout, and each time you oscillate back to the value, the opposite side of the value area. In this case, it's looking a lot like DXY has just failed breakout. Not only that, but this is also. A previous level of liquidity. We all know that after liquidity sweeps, the majority of the stops have been taken out. The majority of market participants are either, you know, buying the breakout and being trapped in longs over here, or they set their stop loss above this level and, you know, they're wiped out. And this together makes the perfect recipe for the DXY to start going on a downtrend over the next 2 to 3 months, because we're looking at this on the weekly chart. It also means that the move from the value area low to the value area high went from September, end of September, About the start of November, I know that this time around you will argue that hey, didn't you say that if the DXY goes down, Bitcoin goes up, and if the DXY goes up, Bitcoin goes down? It's different when President Donald Trump is involved. The last time that we had this occurrence was actually all the way back in 2016 when the DXY actually went high, but Bitcoin also continued to pump. That was the one time where this was. You know, where the correlation was broken. So you can only imagine what happens now if this was already so bullish. What happens here? No, doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out. All in all, it's looking like the next 2 to 3 months is going to be absolutely crazy for crypto. And guys, we're about to enter the most parabolic phase of the bull run, which is the end of the bull run. This is where the majority of gains are going to be made. If you haven't already gotten results from this bull run so far and you feel like you're about to miss out on quite literally a generational opportunity, and perhaps you would just like some help, someone to compile the information, perhaps give you a couple of trades, or maybe you want someone to teach you how to trade profitably without having to go through all the trial and error that a beginner goes through. Like, time is of the essence. If you feel like now is the time that you would need a little bit of help, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But if those problems don't sound relevant to you, that's perfectly fine as well. This is only for those that this is relevant to. But anyways, if you enjoy these analyses done on a smart money perspective on crypto, make sure you click the subscribe below. Gonna be posting way more market updates just like this one and try to help you guys make money together. 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