Bitcoin Might've Just Confirmed Something HUGE!

What's up everybody? In this video, we are going to talk about this daily low formation that we just got on the daily chart. And this is something that I have been waiting for ever since, you know, we started going down. And when everyone was panicking, I was like, hey, until we confirm this, there is no need to panic. And currently we have just confirmed the daily low. So what next? And this is what this video is going to talk about. And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to theartofcrypto.substack.com, this is where you're gonna get in-depth market reports every single week so that you are well prepared for what is going to happen in the following trading week. Basically, this is where you're going to gain your edge over the competition. So immediately coming back to this higher low, the reason why this was important in the first place, which I've mentioned in my previous videos, the fact that I really do not want to see Bitcoin break below $18,600 if we want to see bullish price action for Bitcoin. Why is that? Well, if we take a look at the daily chart, every single point here like represents a swing high or a swing low. For instance, this is going to be a swing high, that's a swing low. Now, if you form higher highs and higher lows, something like that, it would be obvious to suggest that the market is currently forming bullish market structure. And that is exactly what I have been hoping for, and that is exactly what I've been seeing. The only difference is that I did not predict that price would go all the way down to $18,000, because when we draw a fib from this swing low to that swing high, you can see that the 0.786, right, generally regarded as the deepest and safest retracement level in order to maintain market structure, still would be the 0.786, but it went even lower than the 0.786. In fact, I wasn't even looking at the 0.786 when I predicted where price is going to end at the retracement. I was predicting 0.705, so I was mistaken there. But either way, the concept does not change that I was looking for a higher low formation on the daily chart and not for this low to get taken out. If that low gets taken out, what was likely going to happen was price is going to come down and like, you know, you break structure here, then during this retrace, a lot of people are gonna be tricked into thinking, oh, you know, it's time to go, time to go long. But that is going to be the catalyst setting Bitcoin up to go even lower. And I'm talking like, if you break market structure here, retrace, you're just gonna short it back down to $16K or something. That is a very realistic scenario, and it is one that I did not want to see happen because I am currently holding a swing long on Bitcoin because I predicted the bottom of Bitcoin at $17,600. And if you wanna follow along with all those trades where I snipe exact bottoms and stuff, Check out the private Discord group. The link will be in the description box below. And talking about the Bitcoin CME futures gap, we're going to go over to the CME futures chart. Now, the reason why I bring this up is because I really, really wanna see Bitcoin go fill in this gap right here. Now, if you take a look at the CME futures gap, right, there is a very big gap between $27K and $28K. This is a level that I have been talking about for a couple of weeks, maybe even more. And I do think that if Bitcoin does do a relief rally back up to this level, this is going to be the area where you're gonna wanna build some shorts at so that you can ride the wave down even lower. Because here's the fact of the matter in terms of macroeconomic factors and looking at the macro situation: we have not found the bottom for Bitcoin yet. In fact, not just for Bitcoin but many other asset classes as well. The reason for that is because in the recent CPI report, the Fed actually announced that inflation is 9.1%. But if you go on to a separate website like shadowstats.com, you can see that inflation at the moment is actually above 15%. Now this website simply tries to calculate inflation other than, you know, what the data that the Fed gives us, because they want to give us lower numbers than is actually expected because they don't want to create panic amongst consumers and regular people. So they always tell you a number that is lower than what it actually is. But this website, when you look at an alternative website, this is the numbers that you're getting. We have hit inflation numbers not seen in like 50 years. Currently we're sitting right at about 17.5%. Well, if you guys remember from June 2021 last year, Inflation was sitting at about 5%-ish, and I was already able to predict then that inflation was gonna go a lot higher. So this is a very useful tool in, you know, that analysis. Now, because of the inflation numbers at 9.1%, the Federal Reserve is going to be increasingly even more hawkish than they already are because they want to combat that inflation. And the definition of hawkish simply means that when inflation is really high, the Federal Reserve are going to do everything in their power to bring inflation down. And to do that, there are generally 2 things that they can do. One of them is to raise interest rates, right? When you raise interest rates, it makes it very hard to borrow money to dump into equity markets such as crypto, such as stocks, such as markets in general, like real estate even. And number 2, when you raise interest rates, right, debt, existing debt is gonna get more expensive. So it is going to lead to a lot of people needing, right, needing, especially the hedge funds where they take on a lot of leverage and stuff. It is going to lead to a cascading effect where everyone needs to sort of sell off their assets in order to stay afloat and not get liquidated. Now, the 3rd thing that happens When you raise interest rates is of course the USD is going to get stronger. This is why you are seeing across the markets at the moment, for example, the EUR to USD has for the first time in quite a while, it fell below like a 1 to 1 ratio yesterday, which means currently the USD is stronger than the euro right now. And this trend is going to be expected to continue because, well, the more the Federal Reserve continues to be hawkish, then they're going to continue raising interest rates. The higher the interest rates for, let's say, the US dollar. If the interest rates of the US dollar is higher than the euro, that just means that the US dollar is going to continue to gain strength against the euro. Now, this is a little forex lesson for every one of you that came to watch crypto. So if you appreciate that, make sure you drop a like on this video. Really helps out the YouTube algorithm. Now, the reason why I bring this up is because as the US dollar continues to gain in strength, I want you to see what Bitcoin is compared to, right? Bitcoin is compared to USD. I want you to imagine this: if I bring up a chart right now of USD and DXY, I can show you just simple economics right now. I want you to take a look at this, right? Whenever the dollar loses strength, crypto tends to perform well because, well, Bitcoin is compared to USD. If USD goes up, Bitcoin goes down, right? If Bitcoin goes up, then, you know, it would be safe to assume that USD is going to go down as well. Now just take a look at this chart right here. The 2017 bull market really kicked off right here, right from 2016 Bam. Now let's go back to a similar point in time in, you know, Bitcoin's history. And you can see this correlates, right? The moment that signified the beginning of the bull market, bam, right there. Check it out. The DXY started going on a downtrend. DXY is the US dollar currency index. It basically signifies the strength of the US dollar. Now take a look again over here. When DXY dumps, Bitcoin pumps. Simple economics, right? March 2020, DXY starts to lose strength. At the beginning of March 2020, the US dollar starts losing strength. Guess what happens immediately after? This is March 2020. Bam! We see all-time high Bitcoin prices. So currently, check out what the DXY is doing. Like huge strength, right? This is on a weekly chart, by the way. If I compare this data to, well, to many, many years of history, the strength of the dollar is currently sitting at levels that we have not seen since 2002, right? I just want to put that into perspective. The dollar is really strong right now, and the reason for that is because interest rates are going up, and interest rates are expected to keep going up because inflation is still really high and the Federal Reserve wants to combat inflation, right? They're incredibly hawkish. So here's the thing in terms of the macro bottom, right? You are not going to see a macro bottom for Bitcoin necessarily until the Federal Reserve stops being hawkish. And that is just, you know, one factor, right? That's just factor number one to consider in terms of the Federal Reserve. Factor number 2 is quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve is currently committed to, like publicly committed to a six-month schedule where they will continually sell off assets in their balance sheet, and they will do so even more on a month-to-month basis. Which means currently quantitative tightening. Think of it as you know you know how quantitative easing is the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air, right? Printing money. Quantitative tightening can be thought of as removing money from the system, right? And they are expected to do this even. more aggressively over the next 6 months. So it would be safe to assume that at least for the next few months, we are not— we have not seen the Bitcoin macro bottom in terms of a quote-unquote bear market bottom. So because of those 2 factors right there, which should help a lot of you out, and if it does help you out, a little comment such as DXY in the comments would be immensely helpful, and it shows that you are staying around to gain some knowledge that a lot of people wouldn't bother to listen to. So what does all of this actually mean for you as a Bitcoin investor or a trader? Now, That is what we are going to discuss next. The only thing that you need to understand about this current situation with Bitcoin is that currently, at least on this chart, I am expecting Bitcoin to at least hit $23,000, which means that until Bitcoin hits $23,000, you are going to expect longs to do very well compared to shorts, right? This is called daily bias, like determining the daily bias, right? You go look on the daily chart and you try to figure out which level that the price is going to reach for, and in this case, it's going to be at least $23,000. I do not believe that Bitcoin is going to go down before it hits $23,000. $33,000. And the reason for that is because there is a previous swing high over here, which indicates that there is liquidity above this level. So because of that, until Bitcoin hits this level, I expect order flow, right, continue to be bullish on the lower time frames such as the 4-hourly, 1-hourly, 15-minute, 5-minute. Basically throughout this period of time, like for the last week or so, you can see that, you know, no matter what the day was, you can see that the daily candles was, you know, always printing downwards, which means that during this period you would have been much more profitable taking short Compared to longs. Now, in this period until we hit $23K, you will be much more profitable taking longs compared to shorts. That is the simplest way to think about it. And the reason for that is because that is the key level that I believe price is going to reach for. Now, some of you might immediately wonder what— like, what is the difference between this period here and this period here? Because over at this period, we did see a break of market structure here, and then, you know, to form a higher low— like, higher high. And then we did form a higher low here, but look what happened. You know, price took a really, really big dump. What if this is a similar situation where price is just faking everybody out and going down? Well, that is a question that can be answered simply from the fact that there is a very clear demand zone— I mean, supply zone, sorry— over here on the daily chart. And that was the level where, you know, I suggested going short at back then, and it would have been perfect in hindsight. In fact, I predicted this pump right here. It's just I was expecting it to go a little bit higher, but clearly we did not get that. But this time The difference is that we do not actually have a clear-cut supply zone right here, as you can see. But what we do have is like the other piece of data that I wanted to show you was the fact that I want you to take a look at the right-hand side here on the VPVR. I want you to notice how we have very, very little resistance, right, in this entire block here, right? This means the only little bit of resistance that Bitcoin needs to go through is this little block right here. And if you do break above this block, it is easy sailing, right? All the way up to like $28K. And $28K happens to line up with the BTCCME futures cap. And that is currently why I believe that Bitcoin is hopefully going back into bullish order flow. And if you want to level up your trading game, make sure you join the private Discord group at theartofcrypto.co. And until then, made again to be with you, my friends. Bye-bye.