In this solo market‑update, The Art of Crypto examines Bitcoin’s recent bearish market structure—lower highs and lower lows over the past six months—and argues that the longer‑term bull market is still intact. He ties macro factors such as the upcoming U.S. election (potential Trump win) and an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut (≈88% probability) to historically strong crypto months of October‑December. Using volume‑profile analysis, Fibonacci retracements, and standard‑deviation boxes, he identifies key liquidity zones around $50K, $45K, $40K and a pivotal $54K “liquidity sweep” level. He explains the discount‑vs‑premium concept (discount < 0.5 retracement) and suggests buying the dip when price re‑enters the discount zone. The core trade plan calls for entering near $54K after the sweep, targeting $85K (TP1) and $100K (TP2) with an 80% potential return, and outlines risk management (stop around $40K, possible second entry near $44K). He emphasizes that timing is uncertain but expects the move to unfold over 2‑4 months. Throughout, he frames market‑maker activity as algorithmic price delivery using standard‑deviation levels, positioning these tools as more reliable than Fibonacci for short‑term targets.
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Welcome back to The Art Of Crypto. In this video, I'm going to be giving you an overview of what Bitcoin's expected to do. A lot of people are wondering, especially with all the sentiment right now, you know, are we going to zero? Are we already in a bear market? Is September going to be bad? Are we going to pump from here? In this video, I will try to answer all of these questions to the best of my ability. And without any further ado, let's get right into it. And just to start off with Bitcoin, we can observe the general market structure has been overall Bearish, right? You've been having lower highs, lower lows for pretty much the last six months. And if you watched the video that I posted about two weeks ago, you would have understood that at least in the short term, I'm looking for some kind of reversal pattern from Bitcoin from these current prices. Why? Because August and September are like this is common knowledge by now, but they're generally very bad months or rather bearish months for crypto as a whole. However, October, November, and December tend to be very good months for crypto. And the fact that we have the election coming up right now and a potential for Trump to win now. I'm not taking any political stances here. I'm just stating the facts for what it is. If Donald Trump wins, it's generally a very good thing for crypto and many risk-on assets. And this is coming alongside the news that the Federal Reserve is thinking about cutting interest rates this month. Now, this is not fully confirmed yet, but at least based on prediction metrics, we have an 88% chance that this is going to happen. So all of this is basically adding up to the fact that, you know, October, November, December are potentially going to be really good months for crypto. And the fact that we have pretty much all-time low sentiments at around these prices at the moment leads me to believe that the is most probably in, and I believe that the bull market is not yet over. Now, could we see like one last little dump? Because fun fact, a Federal Reserve rate cut is not actually an immediately bullish event. Following every rate cut, there tends to be a little dump, right? A sharp dump for the immediate short term before being followed by, you know, the bullishness that we see with an interest rate cut and being in a different monetary environment. And we do end up taking one, one last dump. It's very unlikely that we're going to go back to the $40K levels because Honestly, frankly, if you come back all the way here, you're pretty much in a bear market already. And at that point, you know, it's— we're just going back into another accumulation range. If we do get another dump though, just looking at the daily chart right now, we don't really see a lot of liquidity levels that we can take advantage of. For example, this one right here at $50K has already been taken, and the next one's pretty much around the $40K level. Now what we can use to just give us a little hint is using the volume profile. So using the volume profile, we can see that there is some kind of volume over there. And if we go on to the weekly chart, we are not going to see anything. So Based on the volume profile and just looking at past price action, you can see how many times that price tends to find support/resistance at this $45K area. And so that leads me to believe that if Bitcoin were to go for one final dump, right, I do think that it's unlikely to happen, but if it happens, this could be a potential level for a quick flash crash into a V recovery. But with that aside, I do think that for now the bottom is in. And right now I believe that the best thing that you can be doing is to look for some kind of reversal pattern around these levels. Why do I say that? Well, it's because overall I just want you to observe the weekly trend. You have basically this move here. That's your low, that's your high. Essentially, until we break this low, we are not in a bear market, at least not in the long term. In the short term, yes, because we've been making lower lows and lower highs. But until this one gets taken out, which is around $40K, we're still very much in bull market territory. The simplest rule for you to make money in any bull market is simply to buy a dip, and this is exactly what you'll call a dip. Now, in terms of any bullish levels that you want to pay attention to, we're going to just simply draw a fib from this low to this high, and we're going to wait for a retracement into the discount zone. A discount zone, by the way, is Anything below the 0.5 level within any given range. Of course, anything above the 0.5 would be what you call a premium. Now, the easiest way that I can explain premium discount to you is that when you're buying things in a discount, it's like you buying an iPhone for like $200 brand new. It's a pretty good deal. But if someone were to sell you an iPhone for like $4,000, you probably wouldn't buy it because it's being sold at a premium and it's not that good of a deal. You don't wanna buy high and sell low. you want to do the opposite. And this is exactly what the market makers do. The big boys that control enough capital to move the markets in any significant fashion, all they're trying to do is always repricing the market into a discount that favors them buying and then repricing it back into a larger-term premium so that they can sell. This is how the markets work. And so if we want to trade alongside the smart money, who, you know, are generally pretty profitable, we want to be following alongside their footsteps and waiting for some kind of a discount to form before getting in. And so right off the get-go, I can see that there is a very key liquidity level on the daily chart right at around the 0.705 retracement level. And so this level right here at around $54K is going to be the level that I would look at for some kind of a liquidity sweep before a continuation in trend. One thing you have to understand right now is that price is currently in a range between, you know, $70K essentially and between, you know, $50K. But for the purpose of this entry, we're going to use $54K as the range low, which has been true, you know, one time before, something like that. So this essentially was like a sweep of the range low, and usually the more times you sweep the range low without going all the way back to the range high, the higher the likelihood that it does tend to happen. So once you sweep this, boom, you're all the way back to the range high and potentially even looking at some kind of range expansion. Now, as mentioned in the previous video before, the targets remain $85K and $100K before any sort of significant retracement. Like, this move is going to take us straight to $100K just pretty cleanly, right? That's just how it works. Now, if you're wondering about what kind of levels I'm using to determine this, this is known as standard deviation levels. Essentially, This is just drawing one box here, right? This is the entire range, right? From high to low, this is one range. And if I expand it out just, you know, by one standard deviation, that's how we end up with that number. You might be wondering like, whoa, you know, how are you so sure that, you know, this is going to be the top or whatever? Well, it has to do a lot with how the algorithms are programmed. Now, fun fact, the market makers aren't actually, you know, hiring 1,000 to 5,000 people sitting in front of computers making phone calls all day to deliver the price action in the market. That is way too inefficient. That is something that's done, you know, 40, 50 years ago, But no longer right now. And the way they do it right now is using high-tech algorithms. They basically program these algorithms on certain parameters to deliver price. It's why you see like every move in the market is like so calculated and almost seems familiar because you've seen it so many times. It's because most of these algorithms are programmed on the same parameters. And one of these parameters is that they deliver price in standard deviations. And don't get me wrong, this is different from the Fibs, right? Fibonacci numbers are like the 0.618 and the 0.705. This is different. This is standard deviation. And at least for trading, I found standard deviations to be way more consistent than the Fibonacci numbers. The Fibonacci numbers, don't get me wrong, are really good for long-term targets. Targets where, especially when you're in price discovery and you just want to get an idea of what could potentially happen in the long term, Fibs are great for that. But when we're doing, you know, calculated moves like this, standard deviations tend to work best. And so the entry remains, and I've said this before in the previous video, essentially this is going to be the trade that you're taking. Once that liquidity sweep happens, you're going to have a TP1 at $85K. Now if you're a bit more, you know, risk-averse, you might want to take some profit right at the range high, which is basically a new all-time high. And ideally you're going to be taking profit somewhere around the $100K level, which will give you about 80% returns on this trade. The timeline for this trade that I expect to happen— again, timing is the one thing that we traders, like, we cannot control. We can generally have a pretty good idea of, you know, which levels and you know, which price something's going to go towards or just direction. But time is the one thing that we cannot predict. But I do expect this to happen, you know, with at least like a 2 to 3, maybe 4, hopefully not 6-month timeline. But hey, you know, as long as it goes up, I think all of us crypto people are going to be happy. So that's the situation with Bitcoin right now. Until this level gets taken out, like, there's really no reason to believe that, you know, price is going to keep going lower. I know that market structure is overall still bearish, and just based on market structure alone, this should be, you know, forming some kind of a lower low. But If it does, you're just getting a better price to buy in. Essentially, this is just going to be trade number 1 in the process of catching the bottom or like just a really good entry in general. And if this trade gets stopped out with a very clean validation, then all you do is essentially buy in again at around the $44K level with a stop somewhere around $40K. And you know, that's trade number 2. You know, you win some, you lose some. This is just how trading works. There is always a risk of getting stopped out on any trade that you take. The best you can do is just manage your risk, take calculated entries where the risk to reward is very much in your favor. And that's how you come out on top when it comes to trading.
