Bitcoin: Setup Still Valid, Don’t Miss This

What's good guys, welcome back to another market update. This one's going to be pretty straightforward and quick. So the entry that we had on Bitcoin with the 4-hourly demand zone currently— well, yesterday seemed to be working out, but at the moment things are looking a bit more shaky in the sense that right now we're kind of getting a distribution pattern happening on the previous all-time high. Now this is not to say that the overall uptrend is over though, because this is still the low. Like if we go to the higher time frames, essentially price currently is making a swing from this low to this high here, and Until this low gets broken, market structure is still very much intact and still overall bullish. It's just that whatever happens here, it doesn't matter if you keep going down, you go sideways, you do whatever. As long as this low is broken, the uptrend is still intact. So basically, long term, nothing changes. Short term, this might— this entry just might be a little bit in danger in the sense that first of all, you're getting a value area formation up at the previous all-time or like the current all-time high. Now If you remember from the past videos that I've made throughout this week, you know that the main value area remains up here. This is where the majority of the trading volume is concentrated at. But it's also a really good sign that we are forming a new value area here because now this means that the market participants are essentially accepting the idea that this is an area of fair value for Bitcoin where you have a willingness for sellers to make their sells here and you have a willingness for buyers to hold the price at this level, hence why you're forming a new value area up at the current all-time high. This is a very common thing for markets to go through, by the way. It's like whenever you go through periods of high volatility, for example over here when you pump really aggressively and form a new Bitcoin all-time high, the market just starts ranging, right? Because you need to form new value areas, and the market is always just moving from value area to value area. For example, once you have distributed, or rather accumulated, enough within this value area, boom, That's an impulse move, and that's your new value area. And so at least in the immediate short term, it looks like currently price is forming a new value area right down here. Like currently we are at value area lows. If you look at the just the volume profile on the right-hand side here, we can see that we can refine the majority of the trading volume down to this little box right here. And so currently you are within a discount zone just using the volume profile because ultimately what you guys need to remember. And this is a mistake that I see very often with beginners when they start using a volume profile, is they assume that the volume, like the value area low, is, you know, support, and the value area high is like resistance. And if you look at the point of control over here, this orange line here, a lot of people, or rather just a lot of beginners, tend to mistake this as a level of resistance or support that they can use to trade from, when in reality price tends to oscillate around the point of control, right? You don't use this by itself without any further confluences as some kind of a key level. Same goes for the value area low. You don't use this by itself. In fact, the real discount opportunities are actually present below the value area low, and the premium opportunities, which are just areas where you want to look to short from, are present above the value area high, right? This is your premium, this is your discount. And you can see that price tried to break back into the value area. It eventually did succeed after using this entry right here, succeeded in breaking out, but it failed to hold, right? This was a failed breakout. Price accepted back into the value area low and currently broke below. And not only that, but at least on the 4-hourly chart, what you can see here is you have this low, you have this high, and then you have a higher low. But right now that's a lower high. And the moment this low gets broken, that means that price is now in a— at least in the short term— a bearish retracement period. Which means that at the moment we have one of the conditions that are already fulfilled for a bearish market structure shift, which is which comes in the form of a lower high. The fact that this high wasn't broken leads me to believe that this is a real possibility. And so how do we navigate this trade? Essentially, if you have managed your risk on this trade, there is nothing to be concerned about. In fact, if you haven't managed your risk while taking this trade, you really need to reflect on why you did not manage your risk. Because ultimately, trading is a probabilities game. We're not trying to make quick, big money off of a singular trade. We're trying to take high probability entries, repeat it over the long term, and that's how we ultimately build an edge. That's how we ultimately become profitable. The goal is not to make money once. The goal is to make money forever. And the way you're going to do that is by managing your risk so that no singular loss will ever take you out. And why, you know, If this trade does get stopped out, it's like whatever. We had a clear thesis heading into this, and if it doesn't play out, it is what it is. We had a clear thesis. We had a clear idea that this would be a high probability entry. Like when we had the idea, nothing changes. Ideally, I would have liked to see price just make like a really strong move after coming into this demand zone, which pretty much we called the bottom. Ideally, again, I would have liked to see this pump aggressively and strongly and convincingly. But at the moment. We might just be in for an extended little accumulation period. So going back onto the analysis on how currently we are in a discount zone, at least just looking at this current volume profile, it means that at the moment this becomes another potential demand zone for you to get into. So if you missed that initial entry, currently prices came back into entry and this wouldn't be a bad spot to get into. But again, just keep in mind that this would not be an A+ setup. This would just be a decent setup. So if you're someone who's more conservative and you prioritize taking the A+ setups, this is not going to be one of them. Again, the original idea is still intact purely because like oftentimes we know where the direction is going to go. And in this case, like this is a proven setup with a really high win rate. It's just not going to win every time. And a lot of times I have been in a situation where I take the trade and, you know, the market reacts good initially, but then afterwards It sort of just starts going sideways or just making me believe that, you know, the original entry isn't that good. Only for me to find out like 1 or 2 days later that, hey, price did in fact play out and price just keeps going up and that my original thesis was correct and price has pumped to its profit target. And this is why, like, a lot of the times it's not a good idea to just cut a trade just because it's not doing anything. If you had an original thesis and if the thesis is good, then you just give the trade room to play out. Otherwise, you're just messing with it unnecessarily. So going back to what I was saying before, currently this is yet another demand zone where you have a strong dump heading into an indecisive, or rather just compact little range here, and then ultimately you had an aggressive pump towards the upside. And this is the exact same trading concept that we use for this entry back here. It's the exact same theory, or rather the exact same concept that was present on the bottom that we caught during Donald Trump's election announcement right here. That is your daily demand zone. Granted, this is— this was on the daily chart, so it's a lot higher probability compared to the 4-hourly chart, but still, concept remains the same. You have an aggressive dump, you have an indecisive block, aggressive pump. This is where the pump begins. And so the demand zone at the beginning, right before the aggressive pump, is going to be your key level. And so currently, this is the exact same setup. For those of you who missed the original entry, this could be another entry where you place your entry where current price is. Your stop loss is going to be right underneath this swing low over here because ultimately this is the key swing level that, you know, needs to be broken in order for price to go into bearish market structure. And given the fact that we are expecting this demand zone to hold, or this demand zone to hold, it means that we are ultimately bullish on price in the immediate short term. And if these— either one of these levels gets broken, then Well, clearly our idea has been invalidated, and so we just get out with a small loss. This is where risk management comes into play. But anyways, that's not too much more to update in terms of Bitcoin. All we have to look at now is Ethereum, and Ethereum, the original idea is still you know valid. The fact that you have relatively equal lows over here means that there is a possibility that this is just inducement leading traders to believe that this is some sort of strong level of support, and price is eventually just going to you know take out this inducement, take out every trader that went into. The trade and set your stop loss underneath here, because in reality the demand zone is right here. And this happens on price very often. Currently you're also sitting right below the value area. Currently you have broken below the value area actually. And so if price were to return back to this area right here at 3085, that's still going to be my ideal entry. I'm still going to be looking for that. And the opposite side of the equation would be currently you get a breakout Retrace into POC and off you go from that point onwards. So not too much to update in terms of Ethereum. And just one final note from myself, the most exciting phase of the bull run is about to begin. And if you don't want to miss out on the life-changing gains that could come from this bull run and you would like to learn how to do this properly, or maybe you would just like to take the same trades that I'm taking, then consider joining the AOC Alpha Group down below. It's going to be the first link in the description box below. We have made more than 1,000%. Worth of gains just in the month of December alone. And we do this pretty consistent month over month. December was a horrendous month, by the way, for price action across crypto because everything was just dumping. And if those are the numbers that we managed to pull off in December, you can only imagine how much better we're going to perform heading into better market conditions. But anyways, this is just a humble little plug. Don't join if this does not feel relevant to you, but if it does, feel free to check it out. But otherwise, guys, if you're still here at this point of the video, drop a like button. It truly does mean a lot to me. And subscribe if you want to see more market updates based on the smart money perspective on crypto. Until then, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.