BITCOIN UPDATE: Are We Headed for a Massive Price Shift?

What's up everyone, welcome back to another weekly market update. This week, what is going on with Bitcoin? Why is it continuing to pump? What's going to happen next? I'm going to talk about Ethereum, we're going to talk about Solana, and by popular request, we're also going to talk about Chainlink because it's been going absolutely bonkers. Without any further ado, let's dive right into it. So last week I already mentioned that Bitcoin at the moment is sitting in a huge just accumulation manipulation distribution sort of setup. And that remains to be the case. And last week I did mention that last week was actually going to be the opening range, and at the moment it has been doing opening range things. And the manipulation phase doesn't start until this week, which is right here on the bottom here. That's your manipulation week. So expect the true, true manipulation to happen this week. But either way, we are already in the quarter where, you know, we're already in a type of setup Where we're expecting manipulation, so this entire move here could simply be manipulation. One other thing that I noticed while I was going through the charts was the fact that we have already formed about one range expansion away from you know basically the range that we've been in for the majority of the year. If you notice, the moment the true yearly open that comes out during the start of Q2, which was the first of April, the moment that true yearly open came out, price has literally been forming an equal range, right? If you drew from the true yearly open, which is about $28.4K, you extend that by about $3,000 and you extend it down by about $3,000, you can see that price has literally just been ranging between the true yearly open. And if we were to draw, you know, that range, assuming we don't use the candle wicks and we use the candle bodies because we know that's where most of the institutional volume is concentrated at, you can see that recently we have just formed a one standard deviation expansion outside of the range. And for those of you who think that that is a ton of jargon, essentially I am just extending this range out by 1, and that's how you get 1 standard deviation away from the range. Now the reason why I bring this up is because the markets usually move in 50% range expansions or 1 standard deviation range expansions. Sometimes it can also be more, but let's face it, we're not really expecting Bitcoin to go all the way to $44,000 at the very moment just because of how the macro conditions are lining up, especially with this big, big setup, you know, in like staring you in the face at the moment. The last time we got a clean, clean AMD type of setup was actually back in, you know, 2022, where we have the accumulation, manipulation, and then this entire phase here was your distribution. And similarly, we're getting that again. So this is what I will be expecting personally, which is for the top of Bitcoin to come sometime later during this week. Currently Bitcoin is still, you know, price is just forming inside days at the moment where we have not touched any of the previous day's levels. And so, you know, we're going to chill until midweek and that's when we're going to get some kind of true direction. Although this is not just some kind of signal telling you to just go short right this very moment. In fact, I'm not even telling you to go long or go short. All I'm saying is that if there is some kind of a reversal to the downside that happens this week, well, You heard it here first. Whatever you wanna do with that information is up to you. For me, I'm just going to personally sit and wait because let's face it, this is not the type of price where you would be looking to buy. In fact, there was a very interesting post that I saw the other day where for the first time in months since the bear market started, we have now gotten a new influx of retail money coming into the market. And you all know how this story plays out. The market's been pumping for a couple of months, price starts to get interesting, and then now retail starts to come back in. Well, retail is going to buy at the top and it's going to act as exit liquidity for the smart money to manipulate and distribute the markets downwards. The market is a brutal place. At the moment, we are in this kind of situation where exit liquidity is coming in, plus all of these various conditions. Let's just say that this is not a place where I would want to buy, but this is a place where I would want to look for shorts. Now, the keyword here is look for shorts. Currently, we have not gotten any type of strong displacement towards the downside, which proves that the smart money is also looking at shorts. So until we get that, you know, we're just going to sit on our hands. We're not going to do anything. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that your money is better spent elsewhere outside of Bitcoin. I'm talking about the altcoins that are absolutely exploding at the moment, and Bitcoin, simply put, is just not in a position where there is a trade at the moment. Now, within you know the next week, at most the next couple of weeks, I do expect there to be a pretty significant swing trade opportunity to come out. But until that happens. Your job as a trader is simply to wait until that opportunity shows itself. Now, one interesting fact to note though is that the CME Group is currently experiencing more Bitcoin futures trading than Binance, which is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. This is a very rare occurrence, and this can be seen as a sign of increasing institutional interest in the crypto markets because CME is often considered the exchange for institutional investors. Now, while the surge in open interest in the CME futures can be seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin, like that's common sense, right? The thing is, usually, historically speaking, just as a rule of thumb, usually an increase in open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME has been associated with potential drops in Bitcoin price. So just keep that in mind as, you know, just a rule of thumb. Next, we move over to Ethereum, and Ethereum has hit the target that we have been talking about for months, basically. And yeah, now what's next? Is Ethereum going to continue pumping? Now, before we even get into that, one of the big reasons that Ethereum even pumped in the first place is because BlackRock is also aiming to create an Ethereum ETF, and recently, following the disclosure in a filing by Nasdaq where BlackRock seeks to list the product, ETH's price basically just pumped by like 10% in a single day. But that's old news now. The more important thing is figuring out where Ethereum is going to go next. Now, if Bitcoin were to start consolidating and you know start making a displacement lower, then Ethereum is going to follow suit because. The higher time frame objective has already been achieved. I don't see a reason why you know you would continue to pump super aggressively towards the upside. There is a couple of levels that I would personally look at. It's going to be here, like at around 2200, 2460. This would be your significant you know fair value gap. I don't expect Ethereum to get all the way there. Ethereum coming to that blue box there would be equivalent to Bitcoin hitting 44k. So I'm not so I'm not expecting it. If it happens, it happens. But You know, if it doesn't, then, you know, you guys heard it here first. Now, in my opinion, I think Ethereum at least goes, you know, above, slightly above $2,200 before any sort of significant dump, because this is where Ethereum lies in a premium within the macro range. Basically, whenever you are trading in a range, you want to look to sell in a premium and you want to buy in a discount. And in this case, within this range here, anywhere above the 50% is the premium, which means anywhere above $2,236 is going to be your premium zone. And the first, you know, point of interest in the premium zone, it's going to be at $2,464. But, you know, I expect $2,200 to at least get wicked through. Maybe you don't get a candle body closure above it, but, you know, you at least get wicked through for the market makers to fill their orders before, you know, any kind of significant downside. Again, Ethereum at the moment is, you know, just going to follow Bitcoin. There's a lot of uncertainty with Bitcoin at the moment, and if Bitcoin starts to dump, expect Ethereum to follow. Now, if I were to compare Bitcoin and Ethereum and pick one asset to trade, I would consider, you know, Ethereum more so than Bitcoin, because with Ethereum, at least you have a target that you can look for. Which is, you know, at least $2,200, at least $2,240. So if you were to go into the lower timeframes and you were to look for trades, you would have a much easier time doing so. And if I were to do that, well, just apply your lower timeframe trading strategy into, you know, Ethereum momentum traded towards the upside until $2,200 is hit, and you're going to have generally a pretty good time with that. Now, before I move on to the next coin, if you're watching this video and you think the information that you've gotten so far is valuable, it would help me immensely if you could drop a like on this video. But otherwise, let's move on to Chainlink. Now, Chainlink is also in a very interesting situation because it has pumped quite a lot. In fact, I want to draw your attention to Chainlink, where basically back then I was talking about how Chainlink is literally just trading in range for years on end. Uh, basically from, you know, yeah, for basically an entire year, Chainlink has just been in this range. It's a range high, it's a range low, and finally you've broken out of it. For those of you who bought during this range deviation over here Congratulations, because you'd be up quite a whole lot at the moment, 3x to be exact. But even before, I was already mentioning the fact that Chainlink has swept the range lows and you wanna look to buy. Well, little did I expect Chainlink to actually expand this much, basically 2 standard deviations worth of expansion for Chainlink. And so the question now is, is this the top? Well, there are a few things that we can look at to determine that. And let's take a look at this macro range here. So assuming we draw a fib from here to here, You can see that price currently is close to a premium, close but not quite yet. So that's that range. But if we draw even further from that high to that low, we can see that Chainlink is nowhere near to a premium. In fact, the premium zone will actually come in at around $21. So which one is going to get hit? Well, me personally, I think that $18 is pretty much a certainty to get hit just because you're already this close to the liquidity. Basically, that's a previous candle body that hasn't been swept yet, and you also have, you know, relatively equal highs over here at around $19. So I expect either one of these highs to get hit before any kind of significant retracement for LINK. So you have an opportunity here to momentum trade Chainlink towards the upside, and this will tie very nicely into a 3 standard deviation expansion for Chainlink. Now, this whole time I've actually just been using the candle body for Chainlink because, well, that's where most of the institutional volume is concentrated at. But if we were to expand the range to the candle wicks, you can also see that -2 standard deviation expansion will line up with exactly $18.8. So at the moment, until we get some sort of significant, super significant displace to the downside, I would momentum trade Chainlink all the way up to $18, $18.50, maybe even $19. I would just continue to momentum trade Chainlink all the way up to $19, with $18 being a little pit stop where you can choose to take profit. But Otherwise, Chainlink is super clear, and you know if you feel like you are late to these markets, don't worry. Focus on Chainlink. You're going to have a pretty good time with it. And the way that I would approach this is again just apply you know what it is you've learned on the lower time frame, whether that be EMAs, smart money concepts. It can be anything. Just apply that and you know have a good time with it. But otherwise, the last coin we have is going to be Solana, and Solana is in also a very interesting situation because I. Also said that Solana was like I expected Solana to actually reverse more from this $46, $47 you know resistance because this was a higher time frame objective. Well, Solana said screw you and actually just continued going higher. Now to be fair though, it was about a 20% dump from this level after it hit it, but afterwards you know it just continued taking off. So now we got to figure out like where he's going to be the top for Solana. Now the thing here that we want to do is not necessarily try to catch the top. But just trading it all the way until we can milk everything out of Solana. And at the moment, $59 is a very significant, you know, resistance level. It's like a higher time frame objective that I was personally looking at. And so that's already been hit. So now what? Well, we can see that if we draw a fib from the original expansion, right, if we draw like Solana, this was the first expansion, that's the second expansion. Currently we are in the third leg of the parabola. So The top is near. However, I wouldn't just start shorting this, you know, right off the bat because that can be risky. But if we were to just draw a range from, you know, the parabola, you can see why the -1 standard deviation expansion was, you know, fairly significant resistance level. And now I've just moved the, you know, Fib from the wicks down to the candle bodies, and you can see now that price has actually hit -2 standard deviation expansions. So There is only really one more level to go, and it lines up exactly with you know a higher time frame objective that I marked out beforehand, which is at seventy five and a half dollars. So at the moment, what I would do is I would cautiously just keep longing Solana all the way until seventy five point five. But once it hits that, like I'm just going to stop being greedy, take some profits, especially if you bought anywhere down here and you haven't taken profit yet. Remember, people that don't take profit is just going to get stopped out by the market makers because. Well, you know, this is what the market makers do all day, every day— stop greedy people out who don't take profits. So that is the ultimate high time frame target in my opinion. But otherwise, you're already sort of in that zone where you can look for some shorts. Of course, until you get the sign of that, right? Until you get the sign with an aggressive displacement retracement and you fail to make a new high and you in fact form a new low, that's going to be your opportunity. But until that happens, you know, you just continue momentum trading this until you milk everything out of it. But just be aware that at the moment you are in first leg, second leg, third leg, arguably. Yeah, arguably, right? That's your first, that's your second, that's your third right here, and this is actually the fourth leg. If you guys know anything about how parabolas work, the more vertical you go, the bigger the dump. So just be aware that you are in a late-stage parabola. And as long as you keep that in mind and go cautiously long and start looking for shorts patiently, you're going to do very well. But otherwise, if you're at this point of the video so far, it's clear that you are serious about your trading improvement. And if that is the case, I actually send a super valuable email every single day to the Wins Ain't Cash newsletter followers on a trading tip that you can apply right away to start making more money trading immediately. If that sounds like something that you would like, Just click the link in the description box below and sign up to the Wins In Cash newsletter. It's completely free, and every weekday I send you something valuable. I promise it's not going to be a waste of your time. But otherwise, with that said, I'll see you guys in the next video. Take care, trade safe, bye-bye. Now, if you're at this point of the video and you're still watching, it's clear that you're someone who's serious about their improvement and serious about making trading work. 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