Bitcoin Update: How to Trade a FOMO Market

What's up everybody, welcome back to another market update. Now, as you can see, last week's bearish scenario that I laid out for you guys has, well, clearly been invalidated. But I do have reasons to believe that this is temporary and why right now is not the best time to buy into Bitcoin, at least not in large volumes, expecting Bitcoin to go to like $50K or even form all-time highs. But there is also a reason why you would believe that. But that's what this video is for. We're gonna dive right into it. First thing I'm gonna get into is just some potential fundamental factors influencing Bitcoin's rally at the moment. And the primary reason is most likely that Bitcoin's recent rally is attributed to dovish comments from US central bankers. And all you have to know is that dovish means interest rates come down, and lower interest rates is good for Bitcoin, crypto, stocks, whatever assets that are risk-on. And moving forward, it seems that the Fed is going to move forward with this dovish stance, which is absolutely amazing for, well, just risk-on assets. And besides that, There is rumors in the air that the market is anticipating a rate cut in the upcoming year, which is going to be even bigger for Bitcoin. Because fun fact, when rate cuts happen, that's when bull markets begin. And the second reason why Bitcoin is probably pumping at the moment is that everyone is simply highly anticipating the Bitcoin ETF to get released. And just to add oil to the fire, if you look at this chart here, which shows the amount of people that have over 1,000 Bitcoin in their balance, which basically just means that they're whales, Has been consistently increasing since the beginning of the year, which shows that there are a lot of whales who are accumulating. And there are ups and downs, but the overall trend is towards the upside, which backs the point that this pump probably isn't driven by retail investors, but mostly by whales and perhaps even institutions. But earlier in the video, I mentioned something about the fact that this is probably not the best time to buy into. This is where I'm going to get into it right now. So first of all, let's say that you do buy Bitcoin at this area right now. How much potential upside could you have? Well, let's look at this. swing high right here, which is going to be a potential liquidity point that Bitcoin targets. And the reason why I mark out this high and why I say that Bitcoin could go to $48K is because the market is manipulated. There are market makers behind these markets, and their sole objective is to make the markets move in a way where you are just moving between liquidity point to liquidity point. The best way that I can picture this to you is I want you to imagine the market as like an ocean where you have the surface and you have what's underneath below. Price action is the fish. What does the fish do? Fish eat food. So when the food that is below the ocean surface— let's say fish has already ate the food down below, something like that— where does it go to? Well, it goes for the food that is above here. And the markets are always in a constant state of looking for food, and liquidity is that food. So this is your buy side liquidity, which is an obvious target that Bitcoin could go for. Now besides that, if we draw a range from range high to range low, you can see that this black line here indicates the 0.705, which is also a part of golden pocket. So if we also draw a line somewhere along the side, somewhere along the lines of this line here, you can see that I don't see Bitcoin basically moving past $50K to at most $53.75K. Now if this is a risk-reward that you are able to stomach, basically like a 6,000-point difference, maybe a 10,000-point difference, then absolutely go for it, go long. But I'm just saying that if you're looking for smart buys, now is probably not the best time because if you look below, look at the amount of downside potential that you can have. Now I know that bull markets can remain very irrational. In fact, There is the saying that the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so it is often not wise to fight the trend, which is also why I'll get into my specific advice on what to do right now if you are on the sidelines in just a bit. But for now, what you need to focus on is that look at all of these red, like, just lows over here, right? It's so juicy. This is all liquidity points that the market makers could target, and the first, like, like, imbalance is right here at about $33,000. Am I saying that Bitcoin is going to go to $33,000? Well, I do think so. Even if it's just part of a retracement, I do think that it's going to happen before some kind of a pump that will lead to the next leg up. Now, if we look at the lower time frame, you can also see that, you know, Bitcoin right now is looking very much like a parabola where you sort of have the first leg up, that's the second, that's the third, and perhaps this is the fourth. And over time, like, the curve just gets steeper and steeper, and we all know how parabolas tend to end up— boom. And the reason why I mentioned the parabola is that the market makers really love to create parabolic formations because it's really easy to trap the entire market into getting really euphoric, thinking that Bitcoin's going to go to all-time highs, especially after we've just gone through like a 2-year bear market. Everyone is eager to get in. And guys, I love you guys, and I want you guys to stay safe in these markets. That's why I'm giving you this advice. Like, it's cool that you're not making money at the moment if you're sitting on the sidelines. And the only thing worse than not making money while the market is pumping is that you jump in when the market is pumping. And maybe you get in at the top, maybe it's $69K Bitcoin all over again. And I'm just saying that the possibility of that happening at current prices is a little bit higher than zero. So now that you have like kind of a complete picture of where price could go, like right now the bearish target is going to be roughly $33K. And right now there are only 2 bullish targets, which is $48K and also $53.75K. Now let me give you the game plan so that you can, you know, just take advantage of the current situation no matter if you are a bear or if you are a bull. So currently Bitcoin is at a liquidity point. which is, well, where it's sitting right now. So here is the exact game plan and the exact trading system that you can follow just to make money regardless of whether or not it goes up or down. So you want to go onto a relatively low time frame, definitely not something that is above the 1-hour or the 15-minute chart. Now let me illustrate this on a 1-hourly because most of you watching this are probably more comfortable on the 1-hourly compared to the 15-minute chart. What you want to do is you want to look for specifically sell-side liquidity, which means swing lows to be taken before jumping into a trend. So what I mean by that, what you need to understand is that the way that the algorithms are programmed in these markets is that every sell-side liquidity sweep in a buy program, right— buy program means the market is going up, sell-side liquidity means swing low getting taken— every sell-side liquidity sweep in a buy program will lead to new highs. Basically, you want to take advantage of what retail traders like to call support. Where basically when you go below previous swing highs, there is an opportunity for you to buy. Because look at what happens pretty much at every— like every time a swing high gets taken out. You have one right here, boom, starts the next move. You have one right here, that's the candle body, take it out, you start the next move. Over here again, you have the candle body. You also have over here, and you also filled in a fair value gap, kickstarts the next move. And over here again, this is a swing— you can say that's a swing low, but that's also a fair value gap. But either way, when sell-side liquidity gets filled during a buy program, that's the opportunity that you lead to form new highs. And you literally just repeat this over and over and over again until you— well, until this stops working. And how do you know when it stops working? And how do you know if you should flip bearish? It's very simple. The next time a sell-side liquidity sweep happens, right, you're still going to take it, right? This is the nature of trading system, is that it's not going to work all the time, but it's up to you to determine when is it the situation to, you know, keep following that system, or when is the situation where you need to change your system. So the way that you confirm that the tides are shifting already, super simple, because we know that in a buy program, sell-side liquidity sweeps will always lead to new highs. So what happens when that doesn't? Well, very straightforward. Let's say you sweep this sell-side liquidity over here, right? Price, let's say it starts dumping from here. Hypothetically, let's say. So you know that after, if you are bullish, if the algorithms are indeed bullish and the market makers want the markets to continue higher, It's as simple as one sell side liquidity taken out, boom, you form a new high, right? But the way you confirm this is if it forms a lower high, all right? The moment this happens and you see like a strong, like straight move towards the downside, and especially if it also breaks that low there to form a lower low, man, you've got yourself a little reversal. Now it might not be long-lived, it might be long-lived, you don't know that, but this is the system that you can use to just make money in any market condition. And yes, it is as straightforward as that. The steps are simple, but trading is simple, just not easy. It's just like how all of us know that we need to eat clean, we need to work out and get some good sleep in order to have a good body. And yet, why do so many people struggle with their health? Well, it's simple, it's just not easy. And if you follow this trading system, I believe that you will be all right in any sort of market condition. And of course, if you understand how fair value gaps work, then Fair value gaps are going to be your best friend in this scenario where, you know, in the event that you are expecting bullish scenarios, every fair value gap that you form will give you an opportunity to buy a retracement on a trending market. Let me see if I can find an example for you guys. It's probably not going to be the easiest job to do in a 1-hourly chart. We probably see a lot more of these on the 15-minute. Basically right here you get a fair value gap where basically it's just a gap between this candle's high and that candle's low. If you don't know what a fair value gap is, all you need to understand about a fair value gap is that it is a gap between this candle high and this candle low where, you know, in the middle there is a lack of price action. That's a fair value gap. That is also known as an imbalance. And you only do this if you are certain on the direction, where you basically just place an order at the start of the fair value gap and then place a stop at the end of the candle, right? This is the candle with the fair value gap. At the end of the candle, as in validation, you take that and target wherever Could be a 2:1, it could be a 1:1, it could be a 3:1. You set the rule for yourself. But this is how you momentum trade, and this is how you avoid just missing out on moves and just sitting on the sideline. You don't need to catch tops and bottoms in order to make money. In fact, most of the money is made in the middle where you jump into trends after it has been confirmed. And there is also the saying, which is super true— I'm pretty sure a lot of you have been in this situation before— and the saying goes like this: top pickers and bottom pickers will eventually end up as cotton pickers. Because you just simply lose a lot of money trying to catch tops and bottoms. Like, think about it, there are millions of people looking at the markets at this very moment, and what are the odds that you are going to be the one to catch the top or catch the bottom? Like, there's no point. You might as well jump into an established trend using what I've taught you, using the fair value gap and using a sell-side liquidity sweep in an up program. And of course, the same thing will apply for a sell program where you look for a lower high to form. Like, you get a sell-side liquidity sweep and it fails to make a new high. Now that's when you know the trends are shifting. Now you just look for bearish fair value gaps and just literally momentum trade it all the way down until it reverses. It's as simple as that. If you enjoyed this market update, drop a like and make sure you subscribe because I'm about to start posting trade ideas and potential coins that you could trade during times like this where everything's so euphoric and you don't really know what to do. But otherwise, trade safe and may the gains be with you. Bye-bye.