Bitcoin Update: Is This the Beginning of the Down Move?

What's up everyone, welcome back to another market update. So we finally got the ETF and exactly what I've been talking about has happened so far, although not to my exact specifications. So earlier on in the last video I mentioned after this liquidity sweep over here that you would go down, retrace, and then head lower, but clearly that is not what happened. Instead you got another liquidity sweep upwards before the eventual down move and This move over here actually swept the $48K target, which I wasn't expecting to get swept this time around, potentially just leaving a relatively equal high at this area before coming back to take it 3 months later. But the question now is, is this the beginning of the down move? Do we start shorting here? And the short answer is yes. The reason for this, as stated in the previous video, is that we currently have a narrative building up for the halving that's going to be occurring in April. More specifically, The fact that the ETF has been approved and institutional money has now entered the markets means that these institutions, these big players, they are going to want to buy Bitcoin or any other crypto for that matter at the best price possible. And it's just not in their best favor to just let the markets go up now. Contrary to what you might be told, every market is very manipulated. Crypto before this was not as manipulated because there's just not enough institutional money in the markets. But if you look at any chart of something from TradFi, you're talking about the EUR/USD, you talk about the NASDAQ, S&P 500, whatever you can think of, ones with huge institutional vested interests behind them, you'll see that price action is manipulated to a T. And for crypto, that is only just starting. But I'm going off topic here. The way that these big players like to do things is they always want to bring the price down into as much of a discount as possible before they allow you to start buying. They're going to put the markets into a state where you're going to be really questioning your beliefs on whether or not a bull market is here. And you might even think that the bull market is over and the bear market is back. And that's how you are going to feel. And once you feel that way, and once your friends and family feel that way especially, and once the people around you feel that way, that's when you know the bottom is probably in. Going back to the concept of the premium discount that I was talking about, for example, just within this trading range from here to here, after I draw a fib, Any area below the 50% line, this is what you call a discount, and any area above the 50% line is called a premium. And the simplest way I can explain this to you is if I were to sell you an iPhone right now for $4,000, would you buy it? Probably not, because it's being sold at a really high premium. Similarly, if I were to sell you an iPhone for $500 right now, you'd probably take it because it's just a good deal, right? It's in the discount. The market makers, the big players, they That's exactly what they want to do. So if we just look at the fib in general, you can see that the discount zone does not even begin until we hit 37k. But right beneath 37k, what do we have? We have relatively equal lows on the daily chart, which is a draw on liquidity. So what I mean to say is that right now, probably a good time to short, better time than any time. You're going to retrace into this fair value gap over here, and you're going to go down all the way to 35. That is just the first target, by the way. My ideal level is going to be around the 0.705. Now, for those of you who are new to the markets and you don't know what is the 0.705, you're going to want to add this to your fib right away. So over here, this is how you just add it. Just type a custom number. For example, if I type 100 or whatever, that line's going to change. So the 0.705 is what we call the optimal trade entry in the markets, and you will find that many, many, many, many moves, countless moves, will retrace Back into the 0.705 before continuing the move. So in my opinion, a retrace down into the 0.705 level within this fib over here would not be too bad for Bitcoin price action. And at this point, everyone's really going to start questioning their beliefs on whether or not the bull market's going to still be in, especially because right now all the quote unquote experts and research firms are citing that 40K to 38K is supposed to be strong support, which guys. If you've been watching this channel for any amount of time, you know that is not the case. The way the markets work is that the markets are always moving from liquidity level to liquidity level. What is liquidity? For example, why did the markets start going down after taking out these highs? Because anyone that went short at any point throughout time until this point, you would have gotten a free ride from $48K down to the low of Bitcoin. And assuming that you are still having your stop loss here, this is where a lot of people are going to put their stop loss. And it's not just the people that got a free ride here; it's people that are looking to short. Let's say they place limit orders over here. Oh, once the market hits this quote unquote resistance, it's going to go down. Place the shorts here. Where are they going to put their stop loss? Exactly right above this level. And so this is why after you swept all the liquidity, now it's time to look for counterparty liquidity. What is counterparty over here? You have people that are placing shorts that got stopped out right now. You want to look for people that are placing longs and where they might get stopped out. And an obvious level is going to be right here because this to most people would look like quote unquote support. And so everyone's going to start buying the dip here. Everyone's going to start placing the stop loss here, and they are all going to be blown through because there is another level right there which is even more significant. It's relatively equal lows on the daily chart. Where everybody who went long here would have gotten a free ride all the way up to $48K, and they will now get stopped out. This is why it's important to have an exit strategy. This is why you want to take profit. You don't want to just hold on to your positions forever because the market makers are going to come back and take your positions. So this level, just completely disregard it. It's not going to happen. If the halving was, say, in a week or 2 weeks, then yes, that would absolutely be the level. But considering that the halving is in about 3 months, this gives the market makers 3 months to move the markets lower. Create a retracement, right? It could be ranging, it could be a retracement, but it's enough time for the market makers to make people lose interest and to make people doubt their beliefs. And once they do, levels you're going to want to watch for is $35,500, and ideally, at least for me, would be around $32K. Now, is there a possibility that you could have wick sweeping all the way down to $25K? My opinion, it's probably not going to happen. Now, if this does happen, this would be super amazing, like Make sure you buy at this area. The reason for that is because if we were to draw a line, you can see that this can be a range low and this can be a range high. And when you're trading ranges, it's all— it's trading ranges are the simplest thing that you can trade and easily one of the most powerful things that you can trade, because it's as simple as selling the range high, buying the range low, and then riding the wave all the way to the other side. If you do happen to get this, which is not going to happen Tomorrow, it's not going to happen next week, it's not going to happen before I release the next video. But if it does happen, this is going to be quite the generational entry. It's pretty much not much different from buying at $16K. It's not going to be a huge difference. But otherwise, for now, the game plan for Bitcoin is that you want to look to short between this area. If I could give you a more specific area where I would personally be looking to do it, it would be roughly $44,400. If Bitcoin retraces back into that area, It would be a superb entry zone, and it's as simple as maybe going short there, placing your stop loss maybe just a bit above the previous swing level which you marked out, and then your target is obviously over there. It's down low, but as you can see, the risk-to-reward ratio on this is not amazing. Like, for some— for a trade that's going to take 3 months to play out, this is just 3.5. Not really worth your time, is it? So the thing you do is that you set an alert on this level. Once the price comes into this level, What you do is you go into the 4-hour timeframe, you go into the 1-hour timeframe, and you monitor the price. See if it's doing what you want it to do, which in our case is go down. And if it is, you take the trade, and now you can have a much tighter stop loss. Maybe your stop loss would be something like that, and with a very similar target, you've pretty much now just doubled your profit. In fact, more than doubled your profit. And this is the power of getting a refined entry with a tighter stop loss. But for now, that's my game plan. So in regards to crypto investments, The question that most of you will be having at this point in time is, do I sell? Do I buy? Well, you definitely don't buy, but do I sell? And the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. If you have over a 1-year timeline from this moment on, you're not looking to even look to sell within a year, you're going to be fine. Sure, it might retrace, but it's not going to matter. If you have less than, say, a 2-week to even a month worth of timeline, it's probably not going to matter also, because now it's more of a short-term trade. It's not really an investment. But for anywhere in between, I would highly recommend taking some profit, maybe securing your principal and letting the rest ride. Let's just be prepared for a little bit of a retracement. Of course, this is just the beginning of things. We don't have the exact confirmation in the form of a change of character yet, or in the form of a market structure shift yet, but it could happen at any time, perhaps this week even, or perhaps next week. But either way, something that we'll be monitoring, and I'll definitely let you guys know if there are any changes to the game plan heading into next week in the next market update. And if you enjoyed the tips and lessons that you've learned from this video, you're going to want to sign up to the newsletter because I'm sharing a trading tip that you can implement into your trading right away every single weekday to subscribers of that newsletter. And the best part is it's completely free and it's going to make you a ton of money. But otherwise, trade safe and may the gains be with you. See you next week. Bye-bye.